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pacman

Burnt Ends
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  1. Quote

    Big 12 championship

    No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (Saturday, noon, ABC)

    This was simultaneously Mike Gundy's best and worst coaching performance in his 19 years at Oklahoma State. Best: The Cowboys were picked seventh in the preseason Big 12 poll but reached their second Big 12 championship in three seasons. Worst: They were also destroyed by South Alabama and UCF by a combined 78-10, and a lot of the adversity they had to overcome in 2023 was self-inflicted. They start games slowly sometimes, they settle for field goals despite having the best RB in the country, and they give up scoring runs. They've trailed by at least seven points seven times but have come back to win four times.

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    Last week's win over BYU was their masterpiece. They dominated early but settled for field goals, then gave up a 24-0 run to trail by 18 at half. They charged all the way back and took the lead in the final minute but had a PAT blocked, allowing BYU to tie the game with a field goal at the buzzer. And after all that, Gordon made a couple of masterful runs, and the Pokes' defense forced a turnover and won.

    Texas, meanwhile, beat BYU by 29. The Longhorns are not without their flaws, but they are the best team OSU has faced. They're eighth in offensive SP+, and while OSU held two other top-10 offenses (Kansas State and OU) under 30 points, the Horns also have easily the best defense on OSU's schedule. They have the best defensive line in the conference (tackle T'Vondre Sweat: Outland finalist) and one of the best run defenses in the country. Their biggest defensive vulnerability has been the occasional big pass play, but OSU doesn't make many of those -- most of its chunk plays come from Gordon. Texas' biggest offensive vulnerability, meanwhile, has been red zone mediocrity, but OSU's 32 field goal attempts certainly hint at the same problem.

    The way this season has played out, the best guess for how this will play out is, (a) Quinn Ewers and Texas take a 17-point lead in the second quarter, and (b) someone then goes on a huge run. If OSU can't muck things up and come back, the Horns could win a blowout that reminds the committee of their playoff worthiness. But there would be some poetry in one last OSU comeback, one that allows the Cowboys to have pulled one over on both departing Big 12 programs (OU and Texas) on their way out the door.

    Current line: Texas -15.5 (up from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 16.1 | FPI projection: Texas by 17.0

     

    https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/39014352/cfb-championship-sec-cfp-nightmare-washington-oregon-keys-best-bets-more#b12

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  2. Quote

    Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)

    Who is your best Xavier Worthy comp?

    Many will point to DeSean Jackson, who made explosive downfield plays at under 170 pounds, but I think a more recent comparison for the Longhorns receiver is Tank Dell of the Texans. Worthy, who struggled with drops in 2022 (10), has improved his all-around game this season to the tune of 67 catches and 883 yards while Texas spreads the ball around more. Like Dell, Worthy is undersized at 172 pounds on a 6-foot-1 frame, but his start-stop quickness and sheer burst with the ball in his hands is jaw-dropping. Worthy will get picked much earlier than fifth-rounder Dell, though; he's a top-32 guy on my board. -- Miller

    Key draft prospect to watch: Both Texas defensive tackles

    I actually have two for this matchup, and it's the Longhorns' dynamic duo inside with T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. That pairing will be put to the test against Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II, who leads the nation in rushing yards (1,580) and is second in rushing scores (20).

    These two Texas defenders couldn't be any different, though. Sweat is a massive presence in the middle at 6-foot-4 and 360 pounds. He's surprisingly nimble for his size and has managed 15 run stops in a breakout 2023 season. Murphy, meanwhile, is an explosive 308-pound 3-technique who is a constant first-level penetrator. He has 11 pressures over his past three games and five sacks on the season. Both project as top-60 picks but are continuing to climb up draft boards. -- Reid

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39004924/conference-championships-nfl-draft-top-prospects-sec-big-ten-acc-pac-12-big-12#big12

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