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sunset87

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by sunset87

  1. 2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

    If you think a song is that important, you need to recalibrate things and/or your hopes. SydneyCarton already outlined why the image of a bunch of white fans singing a perceived racist song at black players will not be something the university wants to deal with.

    Yeah unless the students/athletes reverse course on this, I think it's a done deal. The waters are already poisoned, not sure you can turn back now.

  2. 3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

    I'm sure at a minimum, the University will say players who don't wish to sing the song will not have to as they work towards some sort of compromise. They may not have to now but it always makes people angry if a player doesn't do it. Or even the Wickline stuff. 

    I seriously doubt many people know the history of the origins of the song.  But they will now.  Do you think with this new understanding most people will have a different reaction to players, coaches, whomever not singing the song?

  3. 5 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

    This is the piece drawing the most conversation over there. They haven't backed down from Owens to LB despite the direct contradiction TH. 

    The issue will be processing speed for Overshown and Owens. It will be interesting to see if they're up to speed by LSU or if Gbenda will get a few early starts. I'll go on record that I think Owens would be drafted in rounds 1-3 as an Isaiah Simmons prototype. Overshown will be a monster, hopefully by the state fair, but Owens will be better long term.

    Was Owens even mentioned in Nahlin's article ? Seems like it might be his year to make an impact.

  4. 28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    Contact tracing is a pretty key part of controlling and eliminating a disease. Case in point: we defeated smallpox not through universal vaccination, but through contact tracing so we could follow the disease as it spread. 

    But sure, anything you don't like is china-like totalitarianism. 

    Wouldn’t you need to do the same thing at the grocery store, pharmacy, hardware store, etc... Any place groups of people are allowed to go and be in the same enclosed place. If you think it’s necessary to be effective for tracing.

    If they are going to require that for restaurants and it’s that critical, why not everywhere? 

    And I do think contact tracing is critical.

     

  5. The author of that article, Art Berman, was an early skeptic of the economics of shale plays. He wrote quite a few articles on the subject.

    I think in this article he is implying that we are going to see a huge reset of the world economy. Which will take a very long time to recover back to what we consider “normal”. According to him maybe never. 
     

    How long is the real question.

  6. 1 hour ago, Viking said:

    How do you shut in an oil well?

    I know nothing about o&g and my searches for an answer turn up a bunch of stuff about royalty payments and shutting down while drilling.

     

    You can produce your wells a few days during the month so that you are reporting production and holding leases. The key is to not sell oil during this time. You need ample storage in your tank batteries to be able to produce a little oil for several months but not have to sell the stuff.

  7. 18 minutes ago, Brew said:

    The goal wasn’t to keep you funded, the goal was to keep your employees off of unemployment and fully employed during what they expected to be an 8 week problem cycle. There were other loan products available for operating needs with longer term payback periods.

    Admittedly, I am not as well versed as others in my company on what other options we had for loan products.

    The better ability we have to minimize our losses the better chance we have to keep our employees.

    Again, happy to have help and we don’t plan on letting anyone go, unless this drags on for quite a while. Which would probably mean we’re done anyway. Just pointing out it would be nice to have some options.

  8. 1 hour ago, ousuxndallas said:

    So the PPP is working as designed. The goal was to keep small business employees working for 2 months, until (presumably) the COVID crisis ended.

    All of my clients that applied received funding. But I was pushing them hard to get their application in early. I helped them assemble the info needed and answered all bank questions in a timely manner.

    Next round should help those that dragged their feet, or were stepped over by their bank. Now is the time to get away from crappy, large banks and with with someone local.

    Yeah I get that, but I don’t see the harm in having a longer term for use. Like 6 months or a year. It’s fine if they want to tie the funding to a two month pay period, but some latitude on when and how you use it seems to make a lot more sense.

    All that being said, I’m thankful and feel somewhat lucky we got funded.

    • Like 3
  9. This has probably already been discussed but, our business has received the PPP funding through a small bank. I guess you have to use all of the money in 8 weeks and return what is not used. 
     

    So if we were allowed to use the money for as long as possible, we could have cut or employees salaries by 25% and covered our losses for maybe 4 or 5 months with the loan money. 
     

    Instead we are going to pay full salaries for 8 weeks. Otherwise we leave money on the table that we couldn’t use.

    The loan would have been much more beneficial and efficient if we could spread it out over time. Because this thing is going to last a lot longer than 8 weeks.

    • Like 2
  10. 18 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    Yep. Same in south Texas. That’s why people worried about proration or the Russians worried about ensuring the US mandate cuts (or Parliament above) are ill-informed, worried about nothing, or have an agenda (Sheffield). This shit is going to take care of itself and ultra quickly. 

    Nobody’s gonna sell for $6-$7 realized prices. Ain’t nobody got time for that. 

    We operate one lease in Hidalgo County, Tx (deep south Texas). It's one of the worst areas in Texas for transportation costs.  Our trucking/deduct number is going to $13.00/barrel in May. Using the standard purchasing formula (subbing Houston/Cush differential for the Mid/Cush diff.) for that lease, the May oil price numbers are likely to be negative!  We would have to pay the oil purchaser to come get our oil...😬

  11. For Permian producers, May's pricing using the standard WTI posting (not Nymex) formula, with about a week to go for determining the P+ and the WTI/Cushing differential (for Permian crude), is currently at P+  $-2.3, WTI/Cush diff  $-5.00.  So subtract whatever your deduct/trucking number is from the oil purchaser (maybe around $2.50 as an estimate for leases in the Permian).  In this scenario you are looking at (using current monthly averages for P+, and WTI/Cush diff.) around $-10.00/bbl + whatever the WTI posting averages for May. 

    Right now WTI posting is in the $16 to $17 dollar range.  If that pricing continues into May (most people think it will, but who knows), you are looking at $6 to $7 a barrel for oil at the wellhead price for producers in May.

    tldr: lots of wells are going to be shut-in in the upcoming months

  12. 31 minutes ago, Archer said:

    It depends on how you look at it, by well count you're correct that most wells are not going to be profitable at $20. On a production basis I bet a lot more is profitable than thought with the decline rates of the big shale rates and how much they produce early time. 
     

    At $20 40%+ of my wells are losing but 98% of my production is profitable. Mix of strippers and horizontals 

    Yeah no doubt the high rate horizontals are profitable at $20, but do you want to produce those wells with that price environment.  It's got to put a big dent in the economics if you have to produce them for very long at those prices. On the other hand, you've got to pay the bills...

    Unfortunately, our company is strictly conventional and a lot of it is older production.

  13. On 3/5/2020 at 8:29 AM, Leeroy Jenkins said:

     


    Apparently they waived the amount of time in advance needed to make changes. I don’t know all of the details but the change was made just yesterday morning according to our group leader. We are looking to late June or early July depending on how all of this goes.

    We booked a European trip through EF Ultimate Break back in November for a trip in May for our daughter, and paid for the trip insurance.  They are telling us we can receive credit and book another trip, but if we cancel they keep about 15% of the total cost.  She can't go any time this summer or next and has no idea about her future schedule because of graduating from college in 2 years, so we want the refund.

    It seems like 15% of the total cost of the trip would be close to their profit margin in normal times.  They say they are taking losses from having to cancel hotels, etc..., but I would think they would have insurance for that scenario.  Feels like they aren't losing much of anything if you cancel, even if you bought the trip insurance.

    Are you still going on your trip?

  14. 4 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    The op / non-op component is really interesting, but I don’t think nonops can do a damn thing about it, and this highlights why you’d want to be an operator, always. I say this as one with ties to two nonop positions

    We operate, and are having some heated discussions on this topic right now.

  15. I guess hedged oil is the biggest problem, supply wise, for domestic production in 2020. Assuming it can be sold.  I would think the percentage of production that is profitable at $20 to $25/bbl can't be too high.  If companies start shutting in production losing money, that should take a fair amount off the market. Do companies shutting in or reducing production reduce AO to working interest owners?

    Profitability from our companies production in the $20 dollar range is fugly, like 10 to 20%. Of course we have a bunch of stripper wells.

  16. 20 hours ago, MAROON said:

    does anyone know anything about the author?  I did a cursory review on the world wide web and didn't see any overly negative information about him.  Read the article and nothing grossly out of place jumped out either.  It's freaking depressing.

    I’m not sure I agree with his statement about lifting costs for shale wells being minuscule. Relative to offshore maybe, but submersibles are not cheap to run. Operating expenses are quite a bit higher than your average domestic onshore well, simply because of the complexity and nature of horizontal wells.

    There will be a quick ramp up, whenever that occurs, because of the stock pile of DUCs.

  17. 34 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    I don’t see why people on here would not view this as a magnificent buying opportunity. 

    Might be at some point.  Right now we are getting cancellation notices from our oil purchasers starting May 1.  So, not sure how long that will go on, and how or if it will effect well performance when the wells are put back on production.

    I think most people are just trying to strategize on how to stay a float, for who knows how long.

    I'm sure there are companies that are in a position to take advantage, but many more are not.

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