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VolenteHawk

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by VolenteHawk

  1. My auction league is very similar, in your case I’d make a couple of changes. Free agent pickups should be $10+5 to keep, not $1+5. So, if you luck box into Kareem Hunt 2018, good on you but you’re not finding value in a WR3 or something. There should be no minimum number of keepers, if a player wants to throw his whole roster back he should be allowed to. A player being dropped and added back by the same team doesn’t affect his keeper value, the controlling documents are draft day prices and end of season roster. Anybody you didn’t draft is $15 to keep and anybody you did is draft day value plus inflation rate...there is no need to track cuts and adds.

    The Barkley owner in my league cut him to use his IR spot on a better future value, so I used some FAAB on him. He’ll be $15 for me next year. I’ve had Zeke since his suspension year discount, but he’ll cost me market rate next year...so a good time to rebuild.

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  2. 11 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

    damn it, was hoping for an Astros value pick here

    Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk
     

    I'm running pretty cold...you're probably in good shape.

  3. On 9/25/2020 at 4:21 PM, closetohumping said:

    Cowherd has sucked lately but he used to be 60%

    Nobody beats NFL sides long term. What’s worse, with little to no fans now all the models that were overrating home field are corrected.

    I’ve still been spending my time on baseball but with fewer games, I’ll start on NFL this week...but unlike baseball, I don’t expect to win. I’m one of the nobody that beats the NFL. 😀

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  4. On 9/27/2020 at 8:09 PM, UhhhIdk said:

    Any suggestions on where to place some action online? New to online betting and not sure which sites to trust. 

    betonline.ag assuming you’re in a state that doesn’t have legal options.

  5. I still don't think I'm wrong about these numbers, the A's/White Sox elimination game is prices correctly IMO.  That Reds abortion is the difference between being down 2/3rds of a unit vs picking up 2 units of profit the last two days.  Small sample size and whatnot.  I still see value in 2 for today...

    Reds +127

    Cardinals +142

     

  6. It cost me half a unit yesterday, but I still think pricing is wrong...the lines are priced like these are 7 games series, only the Dodgers deserve as much respect as they're getting, IMO.  While it may burn me, I've gotta stick with my conviction, so I'm adding...

    Astros +137

    Blue Jays +125

    White Sox +115

    Cardinals +150

  7. I'm not sure if it's public money inflating the market or what, but all the underdogs today are mis-priced, so I'm taking all of them...

    Astros +150

    A's +110

    Blue Jays +177

    Generally speaking, I think there is SOME value on any underdog getting +120 or better for series prices...but I think the way I'm going to play it is to wait until after the game 1s to see if prices overreact.  I will almost certainly have the Cards to win the series without waiting for game 1, but I haven't dug into the ones that start tomorrow, yet.

     

  8. The 3 places I can think of in that part of town that are open before 11 with outdoor seating are Culinary Dropout, Lupe Tortilla, and Rudy’s. If you don’t eat until 11 your options expand quite a bit.

     

  9. On 9/15/2020 at 3:51 PM, crash_davis said:

    Agreed, Ipads are much more usable if you need to do work. I believe some people do light video editing, which is probably damned near impossible on any Android tablet. But for my use cases, it's just the same as I do on my phone, but on a bigger screen. Yea a lot of Android apps are not optimized for tablets but the data is still the same as my phone, just bigger which is kinda the whole point.

    Samsung Dex is actually a very good implementation of a mobile to desktop OS. If Apple had implemented something like Dex, it'd be all the rage. But since it's Samsung, most people dismiss it. I think Dex is a much better mobile to desktop OS than what iOS is. iOS is still lacking as a desktop like replacement.

    They forked iOS, so iPad has it’s own OS now that’s getting better at bridging the gap. But, I still agree with you, it’s just not quite a laptop replacement for me. For what I do on a tablet, I could have gone cheaper...but I like the integration into the Apple ecosystem as I’m also iPhone and Mac.

     

  10. 13 hours ago, BradInATX said:

    I'd be surprised if @dcar00 or anyone else who seems to be anti-mask could find a single instance of a country implementing a mask mandate and not seeing a sharp decline in their numbers. Obviously I agree with the correlation =/= causation thing as a stats guy, but as a human being there's also a certain threshold of anecdotal, real-world evidence that adds up to me believing it's more than likely to be causation.

    There's a standard that my work product has to meet, and there's the standard that meets common sense, and they are different. The common sense standard has been met in terms of masks, IMO.

    But as dcar also mentioned, we could be seeing both things (masks + higher than expected immunity) happening at the same time. That's not out of the question. I vote that as an experiment we make everyone in Oklahoma throw away all of their masks and see what happens.

    If there is a hypothetical herd immunity number that we're approaching, I think it would be hard to tease out of the data.  Anecdotal experience is of course ripe with confirmation bias...either way, I think reasonable people can disagree.  My anecdotal experience was the mask usage was pretty good in and around Austin well before the state mandate.  It was pretty terrible in the exurbs until San Marcos had an outbreak, then even those places started having high compliance, still before it was technically mandated statewide.  Marginal differences in ubiquitous mask usage is probably swamped by the way reopening happened.

    I do find it interesting, and increasingly hard to explain without some kind of existing immunity, how similar the backside of infection curves and positive test rates are.  We haven't put our finger on it via science, yet...but I'm nearly convinced that SOMETHING is going on there.

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