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VolenteHawk

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Posts posted by VolenteHawk

  1. 13 hours ago, BradInATX said:

    I'd be surprised if @dcar00 or anyone else who seems to be anti-mask could find a single instance of a country implementing a mask mandate and not seeing a sharp decline in their numbers. Obviously I agree with the correlation =/= causation thing as a stats guy, but as a human being there's also a certain threshold of anecdotal, real-world evidence that adds up to me believing it's more than likely to be causation.

    There's a standard that my work product has to meet, and there's the standard that meets common sense, and they are different. The common sense standard has been met in terms of masks, IMO.

    But as dcar also mentioned, we could be seeing both things (masks + higher than expected immunity) happening at the same time. That's not out of the question. I vote that as an experiment we make everyone in Oklahoma throw away all of their masks and see what happens.

    If there is a hypothetical herd immunity number that we're approaching, I think it would be hard to tease out of the data.  Anecdotal experience is of course ripe with confirmation bias...either way, I think reasonable people can disagree.  My anecdotal experience was the mask usage was pretty good in and around Austin well before the state mandate.  It was pretty terrible in the exurbs until San Marcos had an outbreak, then even those places started having high compliance, still before it was technically mandated statewide.  Marginal differences in ubiquitous mask usage is probably swamped by the way reopening happened.

    I do find it interesting, and increasingly hard to explain without some kind of existing immunity, how similar the backside of infection curves and positive test rates are.  We haven't put our finger on it via science, yet...but I'm nearly convinced that SOMETHING is going on there.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  2. Gut reaction, I think I like the Patriots under and Green Bay over.  The only team I've actually bet on is Pittsburgh.  I think the Steelers are the most undervalued team on the board.  Their defense was really good last year (#3 DVOA), which was overshadowed by how terrible their offense was.  If a healthy Big Ben makes the offense just slightly above average that's a pretty good damn team.

    Pitt Over 9.5 +120

    Correlated if a year of film on Lamar Jackson causes even a bit of regression for that team, the divisional odds are just way too skewed.

    Pitt Win AFC North +400

    One other team I like but haven't pulled the trigger on...are we sure the AFC East isn't going to just completely suck.  And if it does, doesn't the Dolphins at 7 or 8/1 seem like it's pretty reasonable.  I haven't bet it because their schedule is brutal.  They have the NFC and AFC West and are stuck with home games against Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs and play at San Francisco...it gets very hard to find 9-ish wins, even with those juicy odds looming.  I will almost certainly be on their over 6.5 at some point.

    Edit: Forgot to add, the Steelers didn't have any Covid opt outs...they're like the anti-Patriots.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. This thread is all straight bets so far, lay a unit on dogs and lay to win a unit on favorites.

    I usually have season win totals and will pick up some division winner stuff as the season goes along...but with a short season and potential for canceled games, I had no conviction on win totals.  None of my books are even dealing division winners, but even if they were I'd probably be staying away.  The new playoff format probably means 2nd place teams only push so hard to even try to the division.  I'd image teams solidly in 2nd will prioritize other organization goals ahead of winning.  I suppose for the right plus money I'd take a flyer on teams that are a couple of games back but that I think are the best in their division if it was offered (Astros, Indians).

     

  4. 14 hours ago, ztejas said:

    @VolenteHawk I'm looking to place a $100 futures bet - I don't have an online account open at the moment. Is there a website that this would be painless to do through? Should I just try and find a bookie instead?

    I haven’t opened a new account or funded one in a long time, but I use betonline.ag and betdsi.eu the most right now, and they’re both fine with timely payouts.

    Though betdsi deals dime lines in baseball, so unless their number is skewed I go elsewhere this time of year. If you’re just aiming at a futures bet I’d check a few different spots and choose based on price, I think.

  5. Like Toronto today. I bet it and my book that has been dealing the best lines immediately moved it 5 cents, like they did with the Reds two days ago.  That’s annoying and weird. I’ll watch it. Anyway, I make the true line 105 to 110, so anything better than 115 is good.

    Blue Jays +121

  6. On 7/30/2020 at 11:47 AM, ztejas said:

    Are we talking about the one on 360 in Westlake? Or has Austin decided to rename a bunch of streets again.

    Not regular old 183...Ed Research A.

     

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