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VolenteHawk

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by VolenteHawk

  1. Gut reaction, I think I like the Patriots under and Green Bay over.  The only team I've actually bet on is Pittsburgh.  I think the Steelers are the most undervalued team on the board.  Their defense was really good last year (#3 DVOA), which was overshadowed by how terrible their offense was.  If a healthy Big Ben makes the offense just slightly above average that's a pretty good damn team.

    Pitt Over 9.5 +120

    Correlated if a year of film on Lamar Jackson causes even a bit of regression for that team, the divisional odds are just way too skewed.

    Pitt Win AFC North +400

    One other team I like but haven't pulled the trigger on...are we sure the AFC East isn't going to just completely suck.  And if it does, doesn't the Dolphins at 7 or 8/1 seem like it's pretty reasonable.  I haven't bet it because their schedule is brutal.  They have the NFC and AFC West and are stuck with home games against Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs and play at San Francisco...it gets very hard to find 9-ish wins, even with those juicy odds looming.  I will almost certainly be on their over 6.5 at some point.

    Edit: Forgot to add, the Steelers didn't have any Covid opt outs...they're like the anti-Patriots.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. This thread is all straight bets so far, lay a unit on dogs and lay to win a unit on favorites.

    I usually have season win totals and will pick up some division winner stuff as the season goes along...but with a short season and potential for canceled games, I had no conviction on win totals.  None of my books are even dealing division winners, but even if they were I'd probably be staying away.  The new playoff format probably means 2nd place teams only push so hard to even try to the division.  I'd image teams solidly in 2nd will prioritize other organization goals ahead of winning.  I suppose for the right plus money I'd take a flyer on teams that are a couple of games back but that I think are the best in their division if it was offered (Astros, Indians).

     

  3. 14 hours ago, ztejas said:

    @VolenteHawk I'm looking to place a $100 futures bet - I don't have an online account open at the moment. Is there a website that this would be painless to do through? Should I just try and find a bookie instead?

    I haven’t opened a new account or funded one in a long time, but I use betonline.ag and betdsi.eu the most right now, and they’re both fine with timely payouts.

    Though betdsi deals dime lines in baseball, so unless their number is skewed I go elsewhere this time of year. If you’re just aiming at a futures bet I’d check a few different spots and choose based on price, I think.

  4. Like Toronto today. I bet it and my book that has been dealing the best lines immediately moved it 5 cents, like they did with the Reds two days ago.  That’s annoying and weird. I’ll watch it. Anyway, I make the true line 105 to 110, so anything better than 115 is good.

    Blue Jays +121

  5. On 7/30/2020 at 11:47 AM, ztejas said:

    Are we talking about the one on 360 in Westlake? Or has Austin decided to rename a bunch of streets again.

    Not regular old 183...Ed Research A.

     

  6. 21 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    Two things -- the "spikes" being seen in the EU right now are....a few hundred cases.  We're seeing that in one county here in the US.

    Second....your second para is spot-on.  We're going to be living with this disease as endemic, and as a periodic flare-up real problem, for a LONG time.  Because we are so.  fucking.  stupid.

    Spain crossed 3k cases yesterday and very much looks like the very early stages of a legit 2nd wave. They no doubt learned from us what not to do, but if countries like that have a legit 2nd round that will be discouraging...will feel like there is a certain inevitability to it, IMO.

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