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VolenteHawk

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by VolenteHawk

  1. 28 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

    Man Dolphins looked bad on offense last week with Tua minus the turnovers and def/special teams TD’s they would have lost 

    That’s why they’re cheaper than they should be.

    Your mileage may vary.

  2. 1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

    Jax +7

    Balt -1

    Sea -3

    @Brew @VolenteHawk  What y’all got?

    I have Washington in the noon games. I’ll sell you the ticket at a discount.

    Afternoon I got Dolphins +6 and Raiders -1. I’ll try to remember to post next week.

  3. 1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

    It was worth a try. Disappointed no one wants to bet. I’ll take Texas straight up against anybody that wants it. $$, avatar choice, 3 month ban. Whatever 

    Your "worth a try" is my "blatantly trying to rip people off with terrible odds".  Texas is -450 and you're offering even.  That's stupid and it would take a stupid person to accept.  Like if I told you I'd take Biden Texas if you laid 10/1, you would be similarly stupid to accept that, regardless of confidence level, because you can do so much better literally anywhere else.

     

  4. 22 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

    So, is the polling wrong or are a bunch of Trumpers on betonline? I’ve heard they dominate predictit. 

    Predictit has limits so low it’s basically a crowdsource opinion piece. Betonline is (apparently) handling a lot of volume, so I’d say it’s a truer reflection of reality. If I had to guess, I’d say that the difference between polls and betting markets in closely contested states has to do with the likelihood of legal challenge that gets votes thrown out or otherwise not counted. #nocr

     

  5. 1 hour ago, Brew said:

    I f-ing hate the randomness of betting sometimes. Based on weather predictions I loaded up on the under in GB/Minn but waited a little long and got it at 49.5. F-ing GB goes for 2 on their last TD instead of kicking the XP which would have made it 28-21. They get it and finish the game 28-22. Played a decent teaser on them, Pitt, and LV which they also managed to cost me.

    Welcome to the NFL, man. Let’s take my card today an an example. Denver +3.5, Rams -3 (never got), Steelers +200 (never got). By FAR the best handicap there was the Rams. Outgained the Dolphins 471-145, shit happens...only one that didn’t win.

  6. 1 hour ago, capnamerca said:

    real grass would never work at TopGolf, but I'd love to see someplace with a decent amount of land try it - maybe Clay/Kizer, who already have lights in place, and a short course requiring maintenance. They could take the last ~20 yards of the range, and bulldoze the fake practice green on the short course. Together you could put 12-14 really good holes on a meandering, real-grass putting green complex.  Charge me $20 for unlimited play, $10 for an hour.

    Oh yeah, no chance at a Top Golf concept...I meant the Horseshoe Bay course.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. I don’t see much value on today’s card. I’ll grab the +3 1/2 with the Broncos and if the Rams tick down to 3 before kickoff I’ll lay that. The Steelers ML is kinda interesting. If that gets to +200 that’s probably a play.

    So basically I’m playing one game and watching lines for moves I probably won’t get.

     

  8. On 10/31/2020 at 6:49 AM, BradInATX said:
    On 10/30/2020 at 11:15 PM, capnamerca said:
    I"d pay well to be able to play legit mini-golf in a topgolf-like setting. Well-maintained turf, holes laid out in a realistic way, games that can match golfers and non-golfers (like the OG topgolf product). Find a way to capture the "expansive putting course / 19th hole" feel from places like Pinehurst (the Cradle) and Bandon (the punchbowl), and it could work. I'm not sure how to run the business, but I'd pay for a quality experience for certain.

    Horseshoe Bay has a nice putting course like you're talking about. Good for nighttime degenerate gambling and drinking.

    And real grass.

  9. On 10/28/2020 at 2:58 PM, BHMCruiser said:

    I just went and reread it. 

     

    I am flabbergasted that anybody told this story to any other person

    I think we need to check on him. That reads like the wife trying to sound normal while he’s locked in a dungeon. Not unlike an alien trying to sound human post body-snatching.

    There could be real trouble here.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  10. Making a couple of plays this week...

    Already grabbed...

    Panthers +7.5  I make this game NO -4.5, the market is either giving NO a bump for home field or bye week rest or I'm just wrong on Carolina and will lose my ass on them soon.  Like it considerably less at 7, so already bet it.  Even last week when my bet was never alive I didn't hate the handicap, you just can't overcome -2 TO and 50% on 3rd down from a team that sucks at it.

    Panthers +1200 to win the NFC South.  Obviously a long shot (why it's 12/1), but if the Panthers are going to make a run most paths include them getting at least a split with the Saints and their other game is week 17 when, if they're still alive,  this number will be long gone.

    Eagles -4  Too big of an adjustment on injury news of guys that just don't affect their power rating.  I played it at -4 +105 figuring that was the bottom but some 3.5s are already popping up...so you could do better.

    Will grab...

    Titans in some way.  I'm going to let the line breathe a little.  If it gets to 3 I'll take the points and if not I'll just take the best ML I can find.  I like the Steelers (see other thread about them being my preseason most underrated team) and have a huge position on their season win total over, but this is a terrible spot...a little overreaction to them blowing out Cleveland and they're at the Ravens next week.

    Looking at...

    Eagles +150 to win the NFC East.  I'm still thinking this one over, but the Eagles schedule doesn't get hard until closer to the end, so if I have conviction that they're a little undervalued firing at this could give me the option of either riding with them or buying back some Cowboys and locking in a profit.  The only way I'd get really jammed here is the Eagles sucking over the next month or the Cowboys getting hot and the Eagles have a far easier schedule through that stretch.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. 9 hours ago, Hate said:

    At the golf course? I thought they closed it?

    They reopened the old back 9 (with a couple holes modified) plus a 3 hole practice area near where the old 10 tee was. It’s kinda sad because it was such a good golf course, and it’s a long ways from that...but it’s open.

    • Like 1
  12. On 10/13/2020 at 11:25 AM, Scheiss Meister said:

    Not me; I'm an office puke now.  A couple of the operators used rakes to reach down into the channel and lift it out.  We only get in a channel or tank when there is no other course of action. 

    As long as one of the other courses of action is “fuck this, I quit” I’d imagine the scenarios where I’m in a tank are pretty rare.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  13. On 10/10/2020 at 10:03 AM, NeverMarryAStripper said:

    Well, they need to start updating those events to skills that are useful in the modern world like lane merging. Eight competitors start out driving around the track in separate lanes and then all lanes merge into one. The first one through wins.

    In the 96 Olympic trials I finished 1st, 4th, and 9th in jerking off.

  14. 1 hour ago, TXSooner518 said:

    Thanks! 10+5 is an interesting idea. 

    What happens for trades?  Say I draft a player for $20, cut him, pick him back up, then trade him to you. Is your keeper value $25 or $15? 

    We discussed no minimums for keepers but thought that was more boring. 1 spot out of 15 shouldn't be too oppressive, esp since you can keep a FA for $6 in our league. 

    Trades transfer draft value, so the cut/add thing is still not relevant in our league.  So...$25.

    The keeper thing is the one I'd care least about.  Every team this year kept 2, so it probably doesn't come into play, anyway.

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