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Posts posted by McCroskey
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Horner has been sacked.
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Hulk!!! LFG!!
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On 6/27/2025 at 11:02 PM, Ag with kids said:
I'll be in London in late October to present a paper for a conference. I grew up in England (from 5-10 years old), so it's cool going back. I talked with my Dad and he's going to go, too.
London will be a few days for my conference, and then we're going to head out to the tiny town we lived in so my Dad and I can FINALLY drink a pint together at his favorite pub there.
Any food recs in London for us to make sure we go to?
Uh yeah, read the thread. Or I don't know, scroll up even just a few posts to what Penelope posted a few months ago. Have a great trip!
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Going next week. Hitting Hawksmoor for dinner and Jugged Hare (again) for Sunday roast this time.
I totally fucked up and forgot to reserve Harwood 3 months ago. -
This?
https://www.wimbledon-debenture-tickets.co.uk/
I may be priced out of this year’s Championships.
Unfortunately that’s it. And no food/beverage is included. Imagine my surprise when I learned that.
Still will hopefully be a fun day.-
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How did you get your tickets?
I tried to buy just a Grounds Pass around the 10th (I think) and the entire tournament was sold out. (I think that tickets went on sale June 6th.
Nothing like the US Open. Also, the entire tournament grounds appear to have a footprint of about 1/3 of the U.S. Open. The grounds are tiny.
Through a hospitality company I’ve used quite a bit out of London. Debenture tickets.-
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Excited to attend Wimbledon for first time end of next week. Worked out perfectly during our London trip this time.
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Grok:
SpoilerIf the U.S. were to strike Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow using bunker-busting bombs, several immediate and long-term consequences could unfold, based on the facility's characteristics, regional dynamics, and global implications. Here's a detailed analysis:Immediate Effects-
Damage to Fordow Facility:
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Fordow, located near Qom, is a heavily fortified underground uranium enrichment facility, designed to withstand conventional airstrikes. It is built into a mountain, with estimates suggesting it is 60-90 meters deep. The U.S. possesses bunker-busting munitions like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound bomb capable of penetrating up to 60 meters of earth or 8 meters of reinforced concrete. A successful strike could potentially damage or destroy critical infrastructure, such as centrifuges, but complete neutralization is uncertain due to the facility's depth and hardening.
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Partial damage might disrupt Iran's enrichment activities, delaying its nuclear program by months or years, depending on the extent of destruction and Iran's ability to rebuild.
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Environmental and Radiological Risks:
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Fordow enriches uranium, primarily to 20% or potentially higher levels. A strike could release radioactive materials, though the risk of widespread contamination is lower compared to a nuclear reactor strike. Localized contamination could affect nearby populations and complicate post-strike recovery.
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Iran's mountainous terrain around Fordow might contain some radioactive fallout, but winds could carry particles to nearby areas, including Qom.
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Iranian Casualties and Response:
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The facility likely has military and civilian personnel. Casualties would depend on the timing and precision of the strike but could number in the dozens to hundreds.
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Iran would almost certainly retaliate, potentially through:
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Missile and Drone Attacks: Iran has a large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, which could target U.S. bases in the region (e.g., in Qatar, UAE, or Iraq), Israeli cities, or Saudi oil infrastructure. Iran's missile accuracy has improved, as seen in its 2020 strike on Al-Asad base in Iraq.
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Proxy Militia Escalation: Iran could activate proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has over 150,000 rockets, to attack Israel, or militias in Iraq and Syria to target U.S. forces.
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Asymmetric Warfare: Iran might conduct cyberattacks, target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global oil flows), or sponsor terrorism against U.S. or allied interests.
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Regional and Global Consequences-
Escalation to Wider Conflict:
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A U.S. strike could spiral into a broader regional war. Israel, a likely partner or supporter of such an operation, could face intense retaliation from Iran and its proxies. Hezbollah's rocket barrages could overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome, leading to significant civilian casualties.
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Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, hosting U.S. forces, might be drawn into the conflict, especially if Iran targets their oil facilities, as it did in the 2019 Abqaiq attack.
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Russia and China, Iran's strategic partners, might not directly intervene but could provide diplomatic cover, arms, or cyberattacks against U.S. interests.
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Impact on Global Energy Markets:
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Iran could disrupt oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, either by mining the waterway or attacking tankers. This could spike oil prices, potentially exceeding $100-$150 per barrel, triggering economic shocks globally.
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Damage to Iran's own oil infrastructure (if retaliatory strikes occur) could further constrain global supply.
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Nuclear Program Implications:
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A successful strike might delay Iran's nuclear ambitions but could also harden its resolve to pursue a nuclear weapon covertly. Iran might abandon the JCPOA (nuclear deal) entirely, if it hasn't already, and accelerate clandestine enrichment at other sites.
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If the strike fails to significantly damage Fordow, it could embolden Iran, demonstrating the facility's resilience and undermining U.S. credibility.
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Diplomatic Fallout:
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The U.S. would face condemnation from some allies and international bodies like the UN, especially if the strike lacks clear evidence of an imminent Iranian nuclear threat. European allies might support the U.S. privately but publicly call for restraint.
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Russia and China would likely exploit the situation to rally anti-U.S. sentiment, potentially pushing for sanctions or counter-resolutions at the UN.
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Arab states like Saudi Arabia and UAE might quietly support the strike but face domestic pressure to distance themselves from the U.S.
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Domestic U.S. and Iranian Dynamics:
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In the U.S., public and political support for the strike would depend on its success and the scale of Iranian retaliation. A prolonged conflict could erode support, especially if oil prices surge or U.S. casualties mount.
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In Iran, the regime could rally nationalist sentiment, strengthening hardliners and sidelining reformists. However, economic strain from disrupted oil exports and potential sanctions could fuel domestic unrest.
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Strategic Considerations-
U.S. Objectives: The strike would aim to set back Iran's nuclear program and signal deterrence to other adversaries. However, without follow-up diplomatic or military pressure, Iran could rebuild, potentially with foreign assistance.
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Iran's Resilience: Iran's nuclear program is dispersed across multiple sites (e.g., Natanz, Arak), and its knowledge base cannot be destroyed by airstrikes. A single strike on Fordow might not cripple the program.
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Intelligence Challenges: The U.S. would need precise intelligence on Fordow's layout and operations to maximize damage. Incomplete intelligence could lead to a failed or counterproductive strike.
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Timing and Coordination: A strike would likely involve stealth aircraft (e.g., B-2 bombers) and coordination with Israel for missile defense and intelligence. The operation's secrecy would be critical to avoid preemptive Iranian countermeasures.
Long-Term Outcomes-
Nuclear Proliferation: A strike could push Iran toward a crash nuclear program, especially if it perceives no diplomatic off-ramp. Other regional powers, like Saudi Arabia, might accelerate their own nuclear ambitions.
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U.S.-Iran Relations: Already strained, bilateral ties could deteriorate further, making future negotiations nearly impossible.
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Global Power Dynamics: A U.S. strike could reinforce perceptions of unilateralism, alienating some allies while emboldening adversaries to deepen anti-U.S. alliances.
ConclusionA U.S. strike on Fordow using bunker-busting bombs could delay Iran's nuclear program but would likely trigger significant Iranian retaliation, regional instability, and global economic disruptions. The operation's success would hinge on precise execution and robust post-strike containment strategies. However, without addressing Iran's broader nuclear infrastructure and regional influence, the strike might only postpone, not prevent, Iran's nuclear ambitions, while risking a costly escalation.If you have specific aspects of this scenario you'd like me to explore further (e.g., military tactics, economic impacts, or diplomatic strategies), let me know!-
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7 minutes ago, Goredho said:
Asked ChatGPT:
What would happen if the U.S. took out Iran’s nuclear facilities at fordow using bunker busting bombs?
Gonna post the response here so we can see how well it predicts what is next.
If the U.S. bombed Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant using bunker-busting bombs (e.g. GBU-57 MOP), the consequences would be severe and far-reaching—militarily, diplomatically, and economically. Here’s a direct breakdown:
1. Immediate Military Impact
- Facility Destruction: Fordow is built deep underground (~80–100m beneath a mountain), but U.S. bunker-busting tech could potentially destroy or disable it. Success depends on intel accuracy and strike precision.
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Iranian Retaliation: Iran would almost certainly retaliate via:
- Missile strikes against U.S. bases in Iraq, Syria, or the Persian Gulf.
- Attacks on Israel via Hezbollah or proxies in Syria and Lebanon.
- Maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz (e.g. mining, ship seizures).
- Regional Escalation: Israeli involvement is likely. Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be drawn in or targeted. The conflict could spiral into a regional war.
2. Global Economic Fallout
- Oil Prices Spike: The Strait of Hormuz sees ~20% of global oil trade. Even minor disruption would send oil prices soaring—possibly over $150/barrel.
- Global Markets Rattle: Investors hate instability. Expect a flight to safety (gold, bonds) and market volatility.
3. Diplomatic Consequences
- Collapse of Diplomacy: Any remaining hopes of reviving the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) would vanish.
- U.S. Isolation: Allies in Europe, China, and possibly parts of the Global South would likely condemn the strike unless it followed clear evidence of imminent nuclear breakout.
- UN Fallout: UN Security Council session would be called; Russia and China would use the moment to hammer U.S. “aggression.”
4. Nuclear Program Reaction
- Iran Reboots Full-Scale: Iran would likely abandon all pretense of civilian nuclear work and go full-speed toward a bomb, arguing that only nukes can deter attacks.
- Breakout Timeline Accelerates: Ironically, a strike might shorten the time to a nuclear weapon if Iran decides to rebuild in secret without IAEA oversight.
5. Domestic Political Fallout
- War Fatigue: U.S. public appetite for another Middle Eastern conflict is low. There’d be heavy scrutiny of the rationale and endgame.
- Terror Risks: Risk of terror plots or cyberattacks on U.S. assets or infrastructure in retaliation.
Bottom Line:
A strike on Fordow would likely prevent or delay Iranian nuclear weaponization—but at the cost of igniting a regional war, damaging the global economy, and possibly accelerating Iran’s nuclear resolve. Unless it’s a last-resort act to prevent imminent nuclear breakout, it would be a high-risk gamble.
Well if we play that game let's also let the other AI's participate:
Google Gemini:
SpoilerIf the U.S. were to strike Iran's Fordow nuclear facility using bunker-busting bombs like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), the potential outcomes would be significant and far-reaching:
1. Effectiveness of the Strike:
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Fordow's Fortifications: Fordow is a deeply buried facility, reportedly 80-110 meters (260-360 feet) underground, built into a mountain specifically to withstand airstrikes. It's considered one of the most challenging targets.
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GBU-57 MOP: The GBU-57 MOP is the largest conventional bunker-buster bomb in the U.S. arsenal, weighing 30,000 pounds and designed to penetrate up to 60 meters (200 feet) of earth or 18 meters (59 feet) of reinforced concrete. While it's the most capable conventional weapon for such a target, there's debate and uncertainty about its ability to completely destroy Fordow's deepest sections in a single strike, especially given reports of Fordow's concrete strength. Multiple MOPs might be required for full destruction.
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Damage Assessment: Initial reports suggest that while some above-ground infrastructure at other Iranian nuclear sites (like Natanz and Isfahan) has been damaged, the full extent of damage to Fordow's deep underground enrichment halls is difficult to assess. Iran has also claimed to have evacuated these sites prior to any strikes.
2. Immediate Geopolitical and Military Consequences:
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Direct U.S. Involvement: Such an attack would mark a direct U.S. military intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, escalating regional tensions significantly.
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Iranian Retaliation: Iran has explicitly warned that any direct U.S. intervention would lead to "irreparable damage" for the U.S. and could result in an "all-out war in the region." They have stated that U.S. troops and bases in the Middle East would become legitimate targets. Retaliatory measures could include:
- Attacks on U.S. military assets and personnel in the region.
- Increased activity by Iranian proxies (like the Houthis in Yemen, potentially resuming Red Sea attacks).
- Cyberattacks.
- Further acceleration of their nuclear program, potentially seeking nuclear weapons for deterrence.
- Regional Instability: The conflict could expand, drawing in other regional and international actors.
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International Reaction: There would be strong international condemnation from some quarters, while others might support the U.S. action as a necessary measure to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Arms Control Association has condemned such attacks as "an irresponsible departure from diplomacy."
3. Impact on Iran's Nuclear Program:
- Setback, Not Elimination: Even if the strike were successful in destroying Fordow, it would likely set back Iran's nuclear program, but not eliminate it entirely. Iran has other facilities and capabilities, and the attack could incentivize them to disperse their nuclear activities further or redouble efforts to achieve a nuclear weapons capability for deterrence.
- Knowledge and Expertise Remain: The fundamental scientific knowledge and technical expertise for nuclear enrichment would remain in Iran.
- Potential for Radiological Release: While the IAEA has reported no external radiation detected from recent strikes, a direct hit on an active enrichment facility like Fordow, which has been enriching uranium to 60%, carries a risk of releasing nuclear material and causing contamination within the facility.
4. Domestic U.S. Reactions:
- Political Divide: Such a move would likely be highly divisive within the U.S., with some supporting it as a strong stance against Iran's nuclear ambitions and others condemning it as an unconstitutional act of war that could drag the U.S. into another protracted Middle East conflict.
In summary, a U.S. strike on Fordow with bunker-busting bombs would be a high-stakes action with potentially profound and unpredictable consequences, significantly escalating the conflict with Iran and reshaping regional dynamics. While it might set back Iran's nuclear program in the short term, it carries a high risk of leading to wider conflict and could ultimately strengthen Iran's resolve to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
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Trump says the targets were completely and totally obliterated.
Logic says he's probably right but I'm a little less certain now just how he said it.
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that had to use B52's with that many tomahawks ??
The GBU-57, aka bunker buster, is really only deployable by the B2. Far too heavy to deploy by missile.
The tomahawks are there to take out surface targets. -
that had to use B52's with that many tomahawks ??
B52’s??? -
Not quoting twitter, in fact, wish I could just not see them, but how soon will there be verification that Fordow is actually damaged/destroyed by this? Thank you for your attention to this matter!
I would think less than 24 hours. It’s almost daylight there, satellites and scans will be telling. We will also be learning in those same hours based on the Iranian response. -
So what path would the bombers take? Was all of the talk of B-2’s taking off from the states a bit of misdirection, would they still be in the air should a follow up be needed at first light?
The B2s over the pacific were a complete misdirection. Zero chance they could have made it to Iran in time for these strikes.
Militarily this seems to have been an exceptional operation.-
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The skeptic in me is taking a wait and see approach. Let's see what happens to the price of a gallon of gas in the next 24 hrs.
Clever quote cut. -
Unfortunately it's not as easy as hitting their sites and saying it's over now peace. What happens if they close the strait or start hitting what's left of our forces in iraq, Syria, Kuwait or Saudi with their CRBMs? I hope our involvement in this is over, but the dildo of unintended consequences, well you know the rest.
It’s a legit concern but also have to look at that from the Iran side. They aren’t likely to attack our forces while solely in foreign positions. They’ll threaten, but doubtful it happens. -
You're sure about that?
Why?
What exactly makes you think that he won't find a reason to send troops somewhere for no particular reason?
Vibes?
We got lied into going to Iraq. What makes it different this time?
Well, people are more informed and skeptical now than we were in 2001. 4 generations had just been hurt in ways not seen since Pearl Harbor. And the two older generations alive at the time were supportive too.
No social media, ALL were less skeptical then.
This won’t be a repeat. -
Pound for pound, Mola Ram way up the list. Don’t think this was posted yet. True nightmare fuel for the billions who’ve seen it.
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Barack Obama - August 5th, 2015
“Among U.S. policymakers, there’s never been disagreement on the danger posed by an Iranian nuclear bomb. Democrats and Republicans alike have recognized that it would spark an arms race in the world’s most unstable region, and turn every crisis into a potential nuclear showdown. It would embolden terrorist groups, like Hezbollah, and pose an unacceptable risk to Israel, which Iranian leaders have repeatedly threatened to destroy. More broadly, it could unravel the global commitment to non-proliferation that the world has done so much to defend.
The question, then, is not whether to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but how. Even before taking office, I made clear that Iran would not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon on my watch, and it’s been my policy throughout my presidency to keep all options -- including possible military options -- on the table to achieve that objective. But I have also made clear my preference for a peaceful, diplomatic resolution of the issue -- not just because of the costs of war, but also because a negotiated agreement offered a more effective, verifiable and durable resolution.
And so, in 2009, we let the Iranians know that a diplomatic path was available. Iran failed to take that path, and our intelligence community exposed the existence of a covert nuclear facility at Fordow.”
Well, perhaps Fordow now ceases to exist. I think this is a good thing.-
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Oh McLaren.
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I cannot believe 11A on a 787 is an Economy seat.
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I submit my top 2:
1) Gunnery Sergeant Hartman.
2) Bond, James Bond.
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10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:
McCroskey is Irish for cognitive dissonance.
I love when you use big words and don't have any idea what they mean.
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Formula 1 2025
in Other Sports
Posted