Sawbonz
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Posts posted by Sawbonz
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4 hours ago, linux said:
AI response, founding fathers failed yet again in creating a slow moving body when democracy is in danger.
Based on the correlation between Donald Trump's approval ratings and the 2026 Senate races, here is the expected result.
Methodology
The projection relies on November 2025 polling data referenced in the provided Newsweek and Civiqs reports. The correlation logic is:
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Trump Net Approval Positive: Republican Win.
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Trump Net Approval Negative ("Underwater"): Democrat Win.
According to the data, President Trump's approval rating is "underwater" (negative) in most of the country, including 12 states he won in 2024 (specifically Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, alongside swing states like North Carolina). He retains positive approval in deep red states.
2026 Senate Race Predictions
There are 35 seats up for election (33 Class 2 seats + 2 Special Elections).
Republican-Held Seats (22 Seats Up)
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Alabama (Tuberville): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Alaska (Sullivan): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip
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Arkansas (Cotton): Trump Positive (+14%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Florida (Special - Rubio's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
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Idaho (Risch): Trump Positive (+23%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Iowa (Ernst): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip
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Kansas (Marshall): Trump Positive (Not listed as underwater). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Kentucky (McConnell): Trump Positive (+12%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Louisiana (Cassidy): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
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Maine (Collins): Trump Underwater (State won by Harris). Prediction: Democrat Flip
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Mississippi (Hyde-Smith): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
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Montana (Daines): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Nebraska (Sasse/Ricketts): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
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North Carolina (Tillis): Trump Underwater (-8%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
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Ohio (Special - Vance's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
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Oklahoma (Mullin): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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South Carolina (Graham): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
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South Dakota (Rounds): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Tennessee (Hagerty): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
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Texas (Cornyn): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
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West Virginia (Capito): Trump Positive (+27%). Prediction: Republican Hold
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Wyoming (Lummis): Trump Positive (+34%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Result: Republicans win 15 races; Democrats flip 7 seats (AK, FL, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX).
Democrat-Held Seats (13 Seats Up)
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Colorado (Hickenlooper): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Delaware (Coons): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Georgia (Ossoff): Trump Underwater (-14%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Illinois (Durbin): Trump Underwater (-29%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Massachusetts (Markey): Trump Underwater (-42%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Michigan (Peters): Trump Underwater (-15%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Minnesota (Smith): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
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New Hampshire (Shaheen/Open): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
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New Jersey (Booker): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
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New Mexico (Luján): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Oregon (Merkley): Trump Underwater (-36%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Rhode Island (Reed): Trump Underwater (-40%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
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Virginia (Warner): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
Result: Democrats win all 13 defended races.
Final Senate Tally
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Seats Not Up for Election (65 Total):
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Republicans: 31
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Democrats/Independents: 34
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2026 Election Results (35 Total):
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Republicans: 15 Wins
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Democrats: 20 Wins (13 Holds + 7 Flips)
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Projected Senate Composition:
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Democrats: 34 (Holdovers) + 20 (Wins) = 54
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Republicans: 31 (Holdovers) + 15 (Wins) = 46
Outcome: Using the correlation to Trump's polling, the Democrats would regain control of the Senate with a 54-46 majority.
If Texas flips I feel like 5 or 6 more will as well
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6 minutes ago, tx ind said:
Rogers is washed up, time to retire
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On 11/28/2025 at 10:29 PM, futureman said:
fuck bob. he’s a twitter troll. trolls are the fucking worst.
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Wordle 1,625 3/6
🟨⬛⬛⬛⬛
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He will do something stupid like going for it on 4th and 4 from his own 25 at a key moment in an important game. And his defense will be ass despite all the homegrown talent in Louisiana. He should have stayed. He’s 50 he ain’t changing
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8 hours ago, RoyalBevo21 said:
Ohio State has a 77% win rate at the horseshoe
Historically they played either Penn state or Michigan at home and a bunch of nobodies we would be happy to pay to come to DKR to take a beating. And I’m talking about the rest of the big 10 schools, not the ooc cupcakes (grambling this year lol)
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7 hours ago, Captain Obvious said:
We keep hearing how complete morons like Miles and Orgeron won national titles at LSU so it'll be easy to keep pulling top recruits and win for someone like Kiffin.
Of course, none of these arguments ever acknowledge all of this was done pre-NIL.
When everyone can pay players the red stick isn’t such a great destination imo.
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10 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:
Thank God it was 15 years ago, I did some terrible shit from like ‘85-99.
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Eyeliner wearing gay with Indian beard is not going to be president unless Trump dies in office
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On 11/25/2025 at 4:44 PM, nnm said:
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4 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:
Head start on the portal. Let’s get’em
We need to back the brinks truck up for Baugh
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On 11/28/2025 at 4:05 PM, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:
Australia has installed enough solar power that they are going to start giving electricity away for free. It turns out that, after you install the panels and run the transmission lines, it costs essentially nothing to generate electricity from the sun.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/05/millions-to-receive-free-electricity-in-2026-thanks-to-australias-solar-boom/
Sun tax coming
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Pavia needs his ass kicked
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9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:
because he could care less about drugs. He just wants oil fields for the oil companies that have bribed him.
4 minutes ago, Red Five said:I don't think it's very realistic for him to keep it a secret from his own administration, the pentagon, etc.
it was a joke that clearly missed
carry on
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I can see warning pilots and airlines, but why let the bad guys know?
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Going to the prevent offense up 7 in the 3rd rarely works
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Damn OU sucks
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There is going to be weeping and gnashing of teeth in the ACC and or big 12
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I don’t see the ACC Getting 2 teams in at the expense of Texas.
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1 hour ago, William Bludworth said:
Bud, we worked it out lol. All you have to do is scroll down more.
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15 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:
The committee ranks differently than the AP. They have an order of operations on who's done what and what they can do in the remaining games. See Michigan jumping us for seemingly no reason.
If the committee wanted us in they'd have dropped us less after Georgia and kept us around 12.
We need 4 to 5 losses today to get in so cheer for chaos.
They can do whatever they want. They can move us up disproportionately for beating #3. We will see what happens
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1 minute ago, Sir Ulrich said:
If they wanted us in regardless of outcomes today we'd have been higher than 16
Why
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Trump’s America
in Cloak Room
Posted
Stage 5 clinger