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Sawbonz

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Sawbonz

  1. 7 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    Newsom, god damnit.  The man's last name is Newsom.

    THERE IS NO 'E" AT THE END.

    GOD FUCKING DAMN YOU PEOPLE

    Not our fault his ancestors couldn’t spell

    • Like 2
    • Haha 3
  2. 1 hour ago, Iceman said:

    Limited to the non-vaxxed.  I mean if we're keeping score on the spend there...lolz.

    Hospital and ER crisis started in 2020, right?

    Are you seriously attempting to argue that the pool of non vaccinated do not cost substantially more in healthcare dollars and resource utilization, time missed from work, and have a higher mortality rate and lower average lifespan than the pool of vaccinated?

    • Hook 'Em 2
  3. On 11/11/2025 at 8:36 AM, Ghost of LL said:

    There is more and more chatter that Mary Peltola is going to run against Dan Sullivan for that seat in Alaska.  And a number of recent polls show her tied or ahead of him.

    As a reminder, she won the at-large House seat in 2020, but was narrowly defeated in 2024.  So she has a record of winning a statewide race.

    Alaska is politically a really weird state.  Given the candidate issues the Dems are having in Maine, Alaska may be a more likely pick-up than beating Collins.

    Judging from the tv ads running in Juneau in October there are a lot of people who fucking hate trump

    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. 28 minutes ago, Ten Bears said:

    I have an actual Kiowa buddy who grew up on a reservation.  He tells me that half of the white dudes he has met claim to be 1/16th (not 1/4 as I said earlier) Cherokee.  He assumes because they were deemed one of the most civilized (alphabet etc).

    Lucky for him he wasn’t Pawnee I take it

    • Haha 1
  5. 7 minutes ago, Foosters said:

    "A CBS News data analysis conducted from April 7-18 found that at least 17 states are less than 50% compliant with the law, which goes into effect May 7. "

    I’m not sure what this means. What I have read is all newly issued IDs in all 50 states and district of Columbia are real ID compliant. OK was last in 2025. Does that quote mean there are still states issuing non-compliant IDs, or only half the people that need to renew have bothered to renew? In Texas, at least, you have to renew every 10 years, so there shouldn’t be many people left

  6. 1 minute ago, UpperWestside said:

    Passports count, correct?

    Yes. Took my wife (no pics) almost a year to get her DL renewed thanks to Abbott’s fuckery with DMV staffing so she had been using her passport when flying. Expired DLs usually work but apparently a TSA agent having a bad day might fuck with you on it  

    • Hook 'Em 3
  7. 4 hours ago, linux said:

    AI response, founding fathers failed yet again in creating a slow moving body when democracy is in danger.

    Based on the correlation between Donald Trump's approval ratings and the 2026 Senate races, here is the expected result.

     

    Methodology

     

    The projection relies on November 2025 polling data referenced in the provided Newsweek and Civiqs reports. The correlation logic is:

    • Trump Net Approval Positive: Republican Win.

    • Trump Net Approval Negative ("Underwater"): Democrat Win.

    According to the data, President Trump's approval rating is "underwater" (negative) in most of the country, including 12 states he won in 2024 (specifically Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, alongside swing states like North Carolina). He retains positive approval in deep red states.


     

    2026 Senate Race Predictions

     

    There are 35 seats up for election (33 Class 2 seats + 2 Special Elections).

     

    Republican-Held Seats (22 Seats Up)

     

    • Alabama (Tuberville): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Alaska (Sullivan): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Arkansas (Cotton): Trump Positive (+14%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Florida (Special - Rubio's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Idaho (Risch): Trump Positive (+23%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Iowa (Ernst): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Kansas (Marshall): Trump Positive (Not listed as underwater). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Kentucky (McConnell): Trump Positive (+12%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Louisiana (Cassidy): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Maine (Collins): Trump Underwater (State won by Harris). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Mississippi (Hyde-Smith): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Montana (Daines): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Nebraska (Sasse/Ricketts): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • North Carolina (Tillis): Trump Underwater (-8%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Ohio (Special - Vance's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Oklahoma (Mullin): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • South Carolina (Graham): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • South Dakota (Rounds): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Tennessee (Hagerty): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Texas (Cornyn): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • West Virginia (Capito): Trump Positive (+27%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Wyoming (Lummis): Trump Positive (+34%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    Result: Republicans win 15 races; Democrats flip 7 seats (AK, FL, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX).

     

    Democrat-Held Seats (13 Seats Up)

     

    • Colorado (Hickenlooper): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Delaware (Coons): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Georgia (Ossoff): Trump Underwater (-14%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Illinois (Durbin): Trump Underwater (-29%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Massachusetts (Markey): Trump Underwater (-42%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Michigan (Peters): Trump Underwater (-15%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Minnesota (Smith): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • New Hampshire (Shaheen/Open): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • New Jersey (Booker): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • New Mexico (Luján): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Oregon (Merkley): Trump Underwater (-36%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Rhode Island (Reed): Trump Underwater (-40%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Virginia (Warner): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    Result: Democrats win all 13 defended races.


     

    Final Senate Tally

     

    • Seats Not Up for Election (65 Total):

      • Republicans: 31

      • Democrats/Independents: 34

    • 2026 Election Results (35 Total):

      • Republicans: 15 Wins

      • Democrats: 20 Wins (13 Holds + 7 Flips)

    Projected Senate Composition:

    • Democrats: 34 (Holdovers) + 20 (Wins) = 54

    • Republicans: 31 (Holdovers) + 15 (Wins) = 46

    Outcome: Using the correlation to Trump's polling, the Democrats would regain control of the Senate with a 54-46 majority.

     

    If Texas flips I feel like 5 or 6 more will as well 

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