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Sawbonz

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Sawbonz

  1. 4 hours ago, linux said:

    AI response, founding fathers failed yet again in creating a slow moving body when democracy is in danger.

    Based on the correlation between Donald Trump's approval ratings and the 2026 Senate races, here is the expected result.

     

    Methodology

     

    The projection relies on November 2025 polling data referenced in the provided Newsweek and Civiqs reports. The correlation logic is:

    • Trump Net Approval Positive: Republican Win.

    • Trump Net Approval Negative ("Underwater"): Democrat Win.

    According to the data, President Trump's approval rating is "underwater" (negative) in most of the country, including 12 states he won in 2024 (specifically Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, alongside swing states like North Carolina). He retains positive approval in deep red states.


     

    2026 Senate Race Predictions

     

    There are 35 seats up for election (33 Class 2 seats + 2 Special Elections).

     

    Republican-Held Seats (22 Seats Up)

     

    • Alabama (Tuberville): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Alaska (Sullivan): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Arkansas (Cotton): Trump Positive (+14%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Florida (Special - Rubio's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Idaho (Risch): Trump Positive (+23%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Iowa (Ernst): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Kansas (Marshall): Trump Positive (Not listed as underwater). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Kentucky (McConnell): Trump Positive (+12%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Louisiana (Cassidy): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Maine (Collins): Trump Underwater (State won by Harris). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Mississippi (Hyde-Smith): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Montana (Daines): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Nebraska (Sasse/Ricketts): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • North Carolina (Tillis): Trump Underwater (-8%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Ohio (Special - Vance's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • Oklahoma (Mullin): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • South Carolina (Graham): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • South Dakota (Rounds): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Tennessee (Hagerty): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Texas (Cornyn): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

    • West Virginia (Capito): Trump Positive (+27%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    • Wyoming (Lummis): Trump Positive (+34%). Prediction: Republican Hold

    Result: Republicans win 15 races; Democrats flip 7 seats (AK, FL, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX).

     

    Democrat-Held Seats (13 Seats Up)

     

    • Colorado (Hickenlooper): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Delaware (Coons): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Georgia (Ossoff): Trump Underwater (-14%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Illinois (Durbin): Trump Underwater (-29%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Massachusetts (Markey): Trump Underwater (-42%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Michigan (Peters): Trump Underwater (-15%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Minnesota (Smith): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • New Hampshire (Shaheen/Open): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • New Jersey (Booker): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • New Mexico (Luján): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Oregon (Merkley): Trump Underwater (-36%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Rhode Island (Reed): Trump Underwater (-40%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

    • Virginia (Warner): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

    Result: Democrats win all 13 defended races.


     

    Final Senate Tally

     

    • Seats Not Up for Election (65 Total):

      • Republicans: 31

      • Democrats/Independents: 34

    • 2026 Election Results (35 Total):

      • Republicans: 15 Wins

      • Democrats: 20 Wins (13 Holds + 7 Flips)

    Projected Senate Composition:

    • Democrats: 34 (Holdovers) + 20 (Wins) = 54

    • Republicans: 31 (Holdovers) + 15 (Wins) = 46

    Outcome: Using the correlation to Trump's polling, the Democrats would regain control of the Senate with a 54-46 majority.

     

    If Texas flips I feel like 5 or 6 more will as well 

  2. He will do something stupid like going for it on 4th and 4 from his own 25 at a key moment in an important game. And his defense will be ass despite all the homegrown talent in Louisiana. He should have stayed. He’s 50 he ain’t changing

  3. 7 hours ago, Captain Obvious said:

    We keep hearing how complete morons like Miles and Orgeron won national titles at LSU so it'll be easy to keep pulling top recruits and win for someone like Kiffin.  

    Of course, none of these arguments ever acknowledge all of this was done pre-NIL.

    When everyone can pay players the red stick isn’t such a great destination imo. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  4. On 11/28/2025 at 4:05 PM, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

    Australia has installed enough solar power that they are going to start giving electricity away for free. It turns out that, after you install the panels and run the transmission lines, it costs essentially nothing to generate electricity from the sun. 

    https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/05/millions-to-receive-free-electricity-in-2026-thanks-to-australias-solar-boom/
     

    Sun tax coming 

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  5. 9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

    because he could care less about drugs. He just wants oil fields for the oil companies that have bribed him.

     

    4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    I don't think it's very realistic for him to keep it a secret from his own administration, the pentagon, etc. 

    it was a joke that clearly missed

     

    carry on 

  6. 15 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

    The committee ranks differently than the AP. They have an order of operations on who's done what and what they can do in the remaining games. See Michigan jumping us for seemingly no reason. 

    If the committee wanted us in they'd have dropped us less after Georgia and kept us around 12. 

    We need 4 to 5 losses today to get in so cheer for chaos. 

    They can do whatever they want. They can move us up disproportionately for beating #3. We will see what happens

    • Hook 'Em 2
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