No... No... I think those would be the schools that get left out of a (not likely soon) B1G raid of 5 or 6 PAC brands...
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Hotline mailbag: Pac-12 expansion strategy, scenarios for a breakup, vulnerable schools and the potential for alliances
By JON WILNER | jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: August 6, 2021 at 11:08 a.m.
If the Pac-12 dissolved, the California schools, Oregon and Washington would be desirable in a post-modern configuration of major college football; everyone else would need a lifeline. Oregon State and Arizona would seem particularly vulnerable, in our opinion, based on the metrics that drive media value.
But the Pac-12 is a long way from that point.
We cannot offer any guarantees, but there is zero indication of an imminent breakup.
If anything, the level of solidarity seems stronger now than it has in years, largely because the schools (i.e., the presidents and chancellors) are all-in with new commissioner George Kliavkoff and view this as a reset opportunity for the collective — a chance to rethink, and reshape, major college sports on the West Coast.
(Had Larry Scott remained in charge, the level of solidarity would have been lower and the potential for breakup higher.)
From this corner of the galaxy, there are seemingly two paths to Pac-12 dissolution — to the Cougars, Beavers and Wildcats fighting for their football existence:
1. The Pac-12 dissolves.
The most immediate existential threat to the conference would be an aggressive Big Ten desperate to grow following the SEC’s move.
But we’re deeply skeptical for a slew of reasons — none greater than this: The conferences have a shared history on the field (via the Rose Bowl) and deep alignment at the university level, both professionally and personally.
Ohio State president Kristina Johnson is a Stanford alum.
Michigan president Mark Schissel is a former Cal dean.
Northwestern president Morton Schapiro is a former USC dean.
Would the Big Ten presidents approve any expansion plan that kills off the Pac-12? In our view, that outcome seems unlikely.
Even if the Big Ten turned predatory and offered membership to the California schools en masse, Cal and Stanford are more likely to stop playing major college football than lunge for cash in a conference 2,000 miles away.
The prospect of the California schools splintering off from the Pac-12, much less from each other, is a leap currently based solely on illogic.
We could get deep into the machinations, but that seems unnecessary given the current state of affairs.
The Big Ten and Pac-12 presidents do not, in our opinion, have the justification, support or stomachs to initiate the series of radical moves needed to drive a stake into the Pac-12.
2. The Power Five dissolves.
If you’re sketching scenarios for Pac-12 destruction, this is the more reasonable scenario — and yet it seems unlikely to materialize anytime soon.
What’s the structure? Simple: The most successful, most valuable, most committed football schools form a 30- or 35-team super-league that’s essentially a mini-NFL — and would, thanks to overjoyed media companies, mint money.
The remaining 30-35 schools in the Power Five, combined with the other 60-odd schools in the FBS, would continue playing football, albeit with a cost structure resembling what we now see in the FCS. (Revenue would plunge, so expenses would have to drop, as well.)
Would the likes of USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington be willing to join the equivalent of a college football Premiership?
Perhaps, because every Power Five league would break apart, too.
The ACC’s Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia (and many others) wouldn’t be involved in the super-league.
Nor would the Big Ten’s Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota and Illinois.
Heck, even the SEC would split up, to some degree.
In this end-game, the top West Coast football schools aren’t leaving the Pac-12 for membership in another conference.
They’re leaving for an exclusive, football-only entity while keeping the conference intact in all other — albeit lesser — respects.
Many of the Hotline’s most trusted industry sources believe the mini-NFL model is inevitable, although not imminent.
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As a matter of fact, as beat writer on all things PAC related speaks on how the league would look to move ahead...
And here is a clip of ballcoach Bob Stoops, how OU wanted to keep OSU in a move, but couldn't get SEC to blink...