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ryskey

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Posts posted by ryskey

  1. QE also stands for quantitative easing.  I'm not sure what that means but I'm certain it's significant.

    He just looks uncomfortable.  Still.  When he looked good last year, he had kind of a Manziel energy of I'M MILDLY OUT OF SHAPE AND PROBABLY DRANK TOO MUCH LAST NIGHT AND I DIDN'T WATCH ANY FILM BUT I HAVE A MULLET AND F YOU

    MM looks comfortable and confident.  I'm not sure he's a better option but body language was much better.

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  2. Unless I'm mistaken, the Danube is considered international waters and countries do not need to give permission to transit through if the ship isn't docking at a port in that country.  So legally, this isn't a problem.  A ship can move between Romania and Croatia without involving Serbia.  

    Practically, that part of Croatia is sparsely populated with little industry, and I don't think there are any sizable ports on the Danube.  The Sava is a tributary that meets up in Belgrade and upriver forms the southern border of Croatia with Bosnia (the confluence of the Sava and the Danube has bars on barges everywhere and is one of the best party scenes in Europe), and in theory that could be used to get further into Croatia, but I don't think it's wide or deep enough to handle big grain ships.  About the same size as Lady Bird Lake.

    Croatia idea sounds cool but probably not likely to have an impact.

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  3. 7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    That is one of the dumbest fucking things ever said on this site.  

    One of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard, period.  And I’ve taken a handful of college classes at the local community college over the past two years, so I’ve been around 18 and 19 year-olds taking their first philosophy class, so I’ve heard some really stupid shit.  I’ve heard a teenager who was old enough to vote ask a professor why we attacked the Japanese at Pearl Harbor.  Edit and I’m pretty sure the timeline he had in his head had Pearl Harbor taking place during Vietnam. 

    WTF everyone knows it was the Germans except for that dumb teenager apparently

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  4. 19 minutes ago, ryskey said:

     

    If you were to regress our final ranking for each of those years with one of these metrics, which one is the most predictive?

     

    Corrected my question per above shitpost.   Previous year's win/loss margin probably isn't predictive at all for the next year, depends on who returned from that team.  

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  5. 2 hours ago, HookEm said:

    I got bored yesterday and decided to look at the experience we had returning for every Texas team in the last 20 years. Note that for this analysis, transfers with experience count the same as players who have played together... so it isn't perfect.  Regardless, it really shows how much our strategy has changed with NIL, transfer portal and COVID extra years.  

    This year we have a top-3 team in terms of career experience, minutes, points and starts.  The starters are particularly experienced.  

    2012-2018 had some really inexperienced teams.  And guess what, we sucked ass for that stretch.  Also, check out Durant's year (2007).  Yikes!  Average experience for the WHOLE team was 0.4 years.

    image.thumb.png.cc7e77e1e73e7e3f334a6c1d24a0c47c.png

     

     

    If you were to regress our final ranking for each of those years with one metric, which one is the most predictive?

     

  6. 3 hours ago, axiom of foundation said:

    These arguments are based on anecdote and emotion, not evidence.  Do you think we are more likely to be harmed by war or violence today than we were in previous eras?  

    Look at the crazy spike of violence caused by social media:

    Reported violent crime rate in the U.S. 2021 | Statista

     

     

    It's because we all started arguing on the internet instead

    image.png.de1380878771b352325890984f448f3b.png

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  7. 40 minutes ago, Skipper said:

    I agree with this to some extent.  But it was hard to underwrite pre 2020 for COVID impact on occupancy and certainly could not underwrite the impact of the last 3 weeks.   There were inherently bad loans out there but what happens if Regionals Banks that typically make over 2/3 of CRE loans are largely out of the refi/origination market due to sudden liquidity issues as loans (properly structured at the time) mature?   

    100% it was hard to underwrite COVID, but where does one draw the line?  Every industry was impacted by COVID.  

    Refinancing here is only a problem if the outstanding loan amount is greater than the property value.  That only happens when you buy a property in a bubble and put a ton of debt on it.  There has to have been a huge (50%?) write down for some of the property values, depending on how much debt was used to finance all this.  Regardless of whether underwriting standards were normal at the time of issuance, they clearly did not incorporate an interest rate sensitivity, and I'm not sure we should feel bad for CRE investors who've lost all their equity because they assumed low interest rates forever.  And unfortunately the bank is the bagholder on the negative equity value - shouldn't banks that made a lot of bad loans go under?  Individuals and households probably shouldn't be expected to do that, but CRE investors and banks doing CRE loans should be sophisticated enough to do that.

    Do you know how much of those loans are under water?  If it's as widespread as the tweeter is saying then yes this is a problem.  I'm bitter because there are lots of businesses that planned well, didn't use a lot of leverage, properly stress-tested their businesses, and aren't asking for help.

     

  8. 3 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

     

    bailouts eventually coming to CRE?

    Another example of temporary ZIRP - created bubbles wanting to extend the bubble, at least long enough to find a bagholder.

    Maybe, MAYBE, when underwriting a real estate investment involving lots of debt, run a sensitivity analysis on the most important variable?  

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  9. 3 hours ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

    man that's a lot of wins, individually and aggregate, for zero titles.  

    4 of these 10 are still alive.

    336365686_202040162473506_2730929626912310560_n.thumb.png.bf61fdbd7fddf4ea3a61faa13f7321d0.png

    Had no idea OU had more tourney wins than UT.  They've done well since joining the B12 but looks like they did really well in the 80s.

    Same for KSU.  They were apparently a powerhouse in the 60s and 70s.

  10. 49 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

    Go back and read @Jackson P. Neighbors post up thread…the bank didn’t do anything wrong. Just bad luck really.

    They had some bad luck AND they did a lot of things horribly wrong.  And lot of that bad luck was their own creation - their depositors were hyper-concentrated in in the most volatile part of the most volatile sector in the economy.  

     

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  11. 9 minutes ago, Chopper said:

    SVB had zero hedging in place even though they bet heavily on the side of continued low interest rates. I don't know how you pass a stress test when you're a bank who hasn't hedged a lick of the securities in your portfolio but maybe the Fed doesn't look at that type of thing for the TFTF banks, though it would be completely asinine if they didn't. SVB could have hedged just as easily as any of their clients.

     

    Yes.  

    Agreed that it's crippling to have ~15% of deposits drawn in 2 days.  Panic and self-fulfilling prophecy is difficult to stress test against.  But that's assuming a bank has reasonably hedged its risk.  How much of the panic was from big depositors that had the wherewithal to understand interest rate hedging and how interest rates affect the underlying value of the treasuries in a rising interest rate environment?  Even if it's a small percentage, that might have been enough to exacerbate the run to critical levels.

    It's inexcusable to run any non-speculative business - especially one this size - without addressing the single biggest risk factor in its continued success.  Hedge fund wants to take that position - that's fine - LPs' dollars are locked up and presumably able to lose everything.  But a commercial bank with $250B of depsosits?  That's insane.

    The incompetence with SVB is staggering, regardless of whether it was kosher with regulations.  Where's the common sense?  Interest rate swaps matching some percentage of the debt, with the same tenors.  Those unrealized hedges carry MTM value and can be liquidated quickly, in theory offsetting the loss on selling treasuries before maturity 1:1.  Unless there's some Byzantine regulation I'm unaware of (and please correct me if I'm off here), why was this not done?

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  12. 45 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

    That's absurd.  For a team this experienced and for a 2 seed, the Sweet 16 should not be the standard.  We should be in the Elite eight and competitive in that game, at a minimum. We are talking about a head coach that has a track record previous to being handed this situation.  That track record should be considered equally if not weighed more heavily.

    I know you are only passing along what you hear, so this is not aimed at you.  I'm criticizing the (lack of) thinking.

    This is fair.

    13 minutes ago, HookEm said:

    We started the year ranked #12 in the pre-season AP poll.  Terry ended up getting us up to #7 in the final AP poll.  So he has already over-achieved what everyone outside of Austin thought about this team, and that was with Beard at the helm. 

    If we get to a Sweet 16, we will have lived up to pre-season expectations in spite of a disastrous coaching turnover.  If we get to the Elite 8, Terry will have exceeded the expectations the AP voters had for Beard this year.

    So is this.

    Been mentioned plenty of times, but there's a huge gap between what you think SHOULD happen in a vacuum versus what you think WILL happen with all the constraints imposed by all the politics involved.  Answering the latter, Sweet 16 gets him the job.

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