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ryskey

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Posts posted by ryskey

  1. My first 870 cost about $275, if I remember right.  Got it with money saved up in high school working at a gas station.  I think I put a couple thousand rounds through that thing over about 15 years.  Barbecue + too much booze makes some seriously corrosive sweat the next day, particularly during those hot September days at the start of dove season - the stock and pump looked like someone had poured acid on them.  Looked like shit at the end but still worked perfectly.  Gave it to a younger cousin.

    So they seriously stopped making it?  That's like if Chick Fil A stopped selling chicken nuggets.

  2. 538 has a confidence interval up on "D's Can Get To 60 Senators."  Honestly, this stupid website is good for literally nothing other than as a poll aggregator.

    Isn’t that the whole mission and founding philosophy of 538? To Aggregate polls and all of the biases cancel each other out? They might editorialize on the data as a side product (agreed that metric isn’t the most useful), but the aggregated data and its direct derivatives are still the foundational product and they’re pretty good at it, better than anyone else anyway.

    Maybe I’m missing something, but this is kind of like going to a barbecue restaurant and giving it 1 star because you didn’t like the banana pudding.
    • Like 1
  3. Imperfect, somewhat Machiavellian solution:

    As long as we're printing money, double (or whatever it takes) salaries/wages for teachers and substitutes.  Also make up the difference in insurance premiums to limit/eliminate deductibles and provide the most coverage.  There is going to be a price at which people are induced to tolerate the risk.  That's a better use of the money printer than buying high yield bonds. 

    That's very imperfect and shitty but there aren't many levers to pull here.

     

  4. 7 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

    We are about 4 weeks out from this virus burning through the population.

    Seems like this is less about trying to time the virus, and more about taking advantage of society's (maybe temporary?) very high tolerance of remote work for the foreseeable future.  Even after case counts die down, offices will be closed/limited access for several months.

    • Like 1
  5. 35 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

    I thought it was "Man going through airport turnstile sideways is going to Bangkok"

    Much like the Bible, these words of divine wisdom that transcend time might have slightly different variations.

    • Like 1
  6. 38 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

    Its like Sun Tzu said. Never interrupt your enemy when he is shooting himself in the dick.

    I thought he said "Man who walk through door sideways Bangkok"

    • Like 1
  7. 2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

     

    This is progress.  How many high-profile people right now would have done that?  Yes, he had massive financial incentives for doing so, and he knew more about OAN than he's letting on, but that was a pretty unequivocal mea culpa.  Good for him.

    Gundy is never going to see completely eye to eye with his players.  But he moved their direction.  At least publicly.  Progress.  It's easy to discredit what he just said, but there is very little reconciliation happening right now in this country, so maybe my expectations are too low but I'm counting that as a win for unity's sake.

  8. 4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

    Went back the original tweet and found more poll responses. One particular question seemed to stand out which might give you a better idea of which "side" would prefer a data-driven approach to reopening the economy.

     

    Oh for fuck's sake.  

    By affiliation, % who do not trust (not very much or not at all) information about coronavirus from medical experts:

    Dem: 8%

    Independent: 34%

    Rep: 63%

    That result is a microcosm of this thread.  

    Thanks for finding that.

    • Like 2
  9. 47 minutes ago, bolverk said:

    To me, that's just really shitty wording of the question in that poll. They didn't ask the preference that you stated, which is a "data-driven approach to re-opening the economy that strikes a good balance between health risk and the economy." That's certainly the option that I would've chosen and likely the vast majority on this board, but instead they phrase it to be more like: a) OPEN NOW - be damned the consequences! or b) STAY CLOSED!!! - be damned the consequences!

    In fact, the biggest complaint that I've heard from Dems/the Left is that we're NOT doing exactly what you suggest. Our State leaders (in Texas) have chosen option a).

    True, phrasing was quite shitty.  But I'm still wondering why so many people chose black or white instead of saying "man, neither of these describe me" and selecting not sure.  The default answer someone who identifies as D or R is apparently to err on the side of tribal demagogues.  And therefore the issue is being described, consumed, and reinforced in terms of ridiculous extremes.

  10. This is a good a place as any to go on this rant.

    How in the hell did THIS issue become so divisive along party lines?  And so quickly?  

    Why do opinions from Ds and Rs on re-opening the economy correlate so highly with their views on gun control, immigration, abortion, taxes, and every other issue?  Battle lines are drawn and critical thinking is enthusiastically ceded to the party leadership.  Then it becomes a purity test.

    If I support a deliberate, data-driven approach to re-opening the economy that strikes a good balance between health risk and the economy, then one side thinks I've been brainwashed by the WHO and the other thinks I'm complicit in murder.  

    "Moderate" and "independent" do not always mean the middle on every issue.  They do imply using all tools available, and depending on the flavor of the month, those tools may or may not be in favor with one of the parties.  

    D and R are quickly quickly overlapping to occupy a lot of the same space.  Massive policy differences obviously, but both are wild-eyed zealots that spend all day in their respective echo chambers applying purity tests.

    I feel like the dude caught between Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunne in Dumb and Dumber when they're playing the stamp game in the van (excluding the whole thug-for-hire thing of course).

    Not just no but hell no.  Give me a damned pragmatist.  Again that does not mean someone who straddles the fence on everything.  It can be someone who wants radical change, as long as the strategy has a firm foundation in reality and long-term thinking.  Someone who knows how to unite and build coalitions, not someone who operates on emotion and whatever the outrage du jour is.  In other words, a fucking adult.  To tie this to the poll question, those people seem to be migrating to the Dems, so that's how I'm going to vote this cycle.  But I'll follow those folks wherever they go.  If they're Rs in 4 years (probably not), then I'll be voting R.  Above all I want politicians who have a clear strategy for improving education.  Because this country is clearly lacking in critical thinking skills right now.

     

     

    • Like 1
  11. 12 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    @Trey3216@ryskeyHow y’all feel about crude and the sentiment from Sheffield and others that production is already coming back?  I have other guys telling me they’re convinced we’ll be at $55-$60 by year end. 

    I ask because I’m about to buy some properties. Supposed to close Tuesday.  I think it’ll be pushed to June 15 or even July 1. I have zero idea what the fuck to do with hedges. 

    I might buy a put for rest of year. This vexes me. I’m terribly vexed. 

    $40 WTI feels very overbought, but so does everything else I guess.  Way too much uncertainty around product demand, refinery runs, and producers bringing back production.  I am hedging some here if that helps.  This bull market in everything has to correct at some point.  

    Costless collars or 3-ways wouldn't be bad right now.  Costless looks like $30/$48 right now for '21.  And people have pooped on 3-ways after the crash but putting them on at these prices isn't a bad idea.  I just stay away from them out of principle though.  

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