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ryskey

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Posts posted by ryskey

  1. Everything here stinks.  Wretched.  The US has the most sophisticated corruption in the world.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1634683511972962313?s=20

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1634605973208801280?s=20

    SVB promised to provided an exit of sorts to tech founders based on inflated valuations in return for their commercial banking business.  Who's screaming the loudest? VC and tech founders.  A lot of the "loans" are of this form, and I have no idea how they'll be valued, so I retract my previous statement about the loan book being sufficient to cover most of the depositor shortfall.  A lot of it is crypto-related, so it'll be interesting to see how 3rd party banks value founder equity - which is the collateral for the partial exits SVB provided.

     

     

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  2. There's something very visceral about bank failures that leads to a lot of strong emotions and speculation.  Kind of the same appeal of watching post-apocalyptic movies.  Doomporn or whatever.

    A $15B business had liabilities exceed its assets.  That's not uncommon, and many businesses can survive that for a time.  This one happened to be a bank.  And the nature of this particular business has to plan around the self-fulfilling prophecy of contagious visceral fear and panic.  

    Atrocious risk management by SVB.  I'm sure it's worked out before for others in that situation, but holy shit, hedge your risk. It's a stress test that takes 1 tab in a spreadsheet. It's not hard and not complicated.  If not interest rate swaps,  there are a million other ways to do this.  This is not the first time interest rates have shot up and it won't be the last.  This is either incompetence or negligence and the market taking care of a very poorly run business.  Worst case scenario, if someone values the loan book reasonably, depositors get 90% of their money back, and likely 100% when another bank wins the auction, so the fear is disproportional with respect to the real financial risk - which is $15B of equity and debt wiped out with depositors getting all their money but uncomfortable inconveniences in the meantime.

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  3. Records in 1-score games

    TCU 5-0

    KSU 2-2

    Texas 2-4

    OkSt 2-1

    BU 2-3

    TT 3-0

    OU 0-3

    KU 3-1

    WVU 2-1

    ISU 1-6

    The Big 12 has 7 above average teams team with wildly different outcomes in close games.  Two average teams who've done well in close games (KU, TT).  And one below average team (WVU).  No one is elite or terrible.

    Being clutch is a thing and huge intangible.  Good for TCU and their chutzpah.  Bad for UT.  But mean reversion always happens.  Take avg margin of victory - ISU, despite being last in the Big 12 at 4-7, is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 4.2 points.  Play this season 100 times and they'd normally be 7-4 right now.  TCU is undefeated and their avg margin is 14 points.  Play their season 100 times and they'd normally be 8-3 or 9-2 right now.

    If TCU makes it to the CFP (and they probably should if they win the last 2 games as a reward for being so clutch), they're going to face a good opponent for the first time this year and they're going to get stomped.  For the sake of making this a more entertaining CFP, I hope they choke away one of the last 2.  

  4. Alabama team passer rating by year, OC, and starting QB(s)

    2014 - Kiffin - Sims (SR) - 156 

    2015 - Kiffin - Coker (SR) - 144 

    2016 - Kiffin - Hurts (FR) - 143 

    2017 - Locksley - Hurts (SO) / Tagovailoa (FR) - 156 

    2018 - Locksley - Tagovailoa (SO) / Hurts (JR) - 197 

    2019 - Sarkisian - Tagovailoa (JR) / Jones (SO) - 200 

    2020 - Sarkisian - Jones (JR) - 191

    2021 - O'Brien - Young (SO) - 167 

    2022 - O'Brien - Young (JR) - 150 

    First, damn that's one hell of a stretch of good QBs. 

    Outside Lincoln Riley, those team passer ratings in Locksley's last year and Sark's 2 years would have been the best ever 3 year stretch in FBS history.  Probably, not sure how to look that up.

    It's hard to call a Heisman year a drop-off, but based on passer ratings, Young's 2021 season was a step down.  And judging by the dropoff from last year to this year, largely enabled by 2 first day draft picks at WR.  Sark had similar (better?) talent at WR but his teams were a lot more efficient passing the ball.  

    Sark + non-freshman QB looks like a good combo.  Ewers is painful to watch this year but looking forward to the combination of Sark and sophomore Ewers.

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  5. Thru yesterday.

    #6 for UT career rushing yards (3328)

    #10 in rushing TDs (31)

    #6 in total yards (4035)

    Tied for #4 in total TDs (39)

     

    If he has 2 more games this year like his first 11, he'd finish 2022

    #4 in career rushing yards

    Tied for #5 in rushing TDs (Tied with Cody Johnson???)

    #4 in total yards

    #3 in total TDs

     

    If he has 3 more games (including CCG)

    #4 in career rushing yards

    Tied for #4 in rushing TDs

    #4 in total yards but very close to surpassing Earl for #3

    #3 in total TDs

     

    If he comes back for a senior season (so you're telling me there's a chance), he'd probably end up #2 on just about everything.

  6. On 11/8/2022 at 4:02 PM, Shaggyhorn said:

    Two random heisman voters have Bijan on their list. One at 2 and one at 5.

    https://www.on3.com/news/heisman-trophy-hot-board-after-week-10-caleb-williams-bo-nix-bijan-robinson-hendon-hooker/

    Just 2 RBs getting odds.  Jahmyr Gibbs wtf?  Blake Corum makes sense, but switch UT's record with UM's and that's Bijan coming with the 3rd best odds.  Rushing stats are comparable and Bijan has more yards from scrimmage.

    C.J. Stroud Ohio State +175 +200
    Hendon Hooker Tennessee +300 +6600
    Blake Corum Michigan +600 +8000
    Caleb Williams USC +800 +600
    Bo Nix Oregon +800 +5000
    Drake Maye North Carolina +1200 [Off the Board]
    Stetson Bennett Georgia +1600 +5000
    Bryce Young Alabama +3300 +350
    Max Duggan TCU +4000 [Off the Board]
    Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama +15000 +3000
    Will Anderson Jr. Alabama +30000 +2000
    Jalon Daniels Kansas [Off the Board] [Off the Board]
  7. As of Oct 17

    #13 for UT career rushing yards (2610)

    #14 in rushing TDs (25)

    #10 in total yards (3340)

    #12 in total TDs (32)

     

    If he has 6 more games this year like his first 7, he'd finish 2022

    #5 in career rushing yards

    #8 in rushing TDs

    #4 in total yards

    Tied for #3 in total TDs

     

    Not bad for what amounts to 2.5 seasons.

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  8. Haven't watched any of their games this year except a bit of NU/OU, so I'm trying to figure out why they were so bad against TCU.  KSU exposed them as not being top 10, but KSU is also a pretty good team this year, and a 7 point loss to them isn't that bad.  They crushed NU, and ya that was an emotional week for the Huskers so maybe an outlier, but NU will probably end up 4-8 or 5-7.  

    So which is more of an outlier?  TCU or NU?  Or is this a wheels coming off situation?

     

  9. Lots of factions within Russia that have wildly divergent interests.  My money is on a faction of hard line Russian military or FSB - the sabotage removes one of the key "risks" to diplomatic solution.  As long as trade with Europe is mutually beneficial, there is an incentive to continue entertaining a diplomatic end to the conflict.  On the other end of the spectrum is the sub-faction of commercially-minded oligarchs whose wealth is directly tied to continued gas flows to Europe.  They are probably pretty pissed off. 

    The potash/nickel//iron/etc oligarchs might be sympathetic to FSB hardliners since their pocketbooks aren't being hit.

  10. Little did we know that Grand Master Jacques de Molay had a bastard son a few months before being burned at the stake, and his direct descendant is a Bama fan who cursed an effigy of Bevo on the morning of January 7, 2010 behind a Waffle House.  Today, I undo that curse.  BRB gonna sacrifice a goat to Hermes

    Texas 30

    Bama 29

    Ewers 230 passing, 60 rushing (wtf?!) for 290 total

     

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  11. Need better distribution and grid expansion to alleviate bottlenecks.  More CREZ lines from West Texas, grid upgrades to connect population centers to generation, and more connectivity between ERCOT and other states.  That'd be a win for renewables and oil & gas.  The time to do that, unfortunately, is when interest rates are low.  Maybe next time.

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