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HookEm

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Posts posted by HookEm

  1. Playing around with lineups a bit.  Assuming we add Sellers (or an equivalent G/F) and Rodman - and neither Hunter or Mitchell come back, I think the minutes would look something like this (with starters / closers in orange):

    image.png.d7fe16da9dad2d3513ed76f48b548aed.png

    Abmas, Weaver and Sellers are all used to playing big minutes so I don't think that would be a problem. This would definitely be a tournament team, but would still be pretty thin at guard.  Any injury or foul trouble and we would be in trouble.  If we add DJ Rodman, I think the minutes distribute pretty well at F/C, with the key players getting 22-26 mpg. 

    If we add Hunter, things improve a lot IMO.  That would let us bring Weaver off the bench and either add another backup guard and reduce everyone's minutes or distribute all of the guard minutes between Hunter, Abmas and Weaver.

    image.png.8455500c78b43bbad9cdda5c75f5d535.png

    To me this looks like a team capable of making a deep tournament run.  There is a ton of versatility with all the guard / forward players. You can go small with Hunter + Abmas + Weaver + Brock + Disu.   You can go big with Abmas + Brock + Rodman + Disu + Shedrick.  Just about everyone can shoot.   Everyone can play defense.  Lots of out of position rebounding.  This would be a fun team to watch. 

  2. 8 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

    In a 3 guard lineup, Weaver would come off the bench. He'll get plenty of minutes and it's his team after everyone departs in 2023. UTEP forward is undoubtedly coming off the bench, so there's room for one starting 4 needed in the portal.

    G Hunter

    G Abmas

    G Sellers

    F Rodman

    C Disu

    Plus a solid bench.

    Now that roster is as good as last year's team, which could have won the tournament.

    ** That's if Rodman plays bigger than his size, like his father.

     

     

    I think it is almost certain we are going to start Kaden Shedrick.  He is a true center and it lets us start Disu at the 4.  He didn't leave a starting role at Virginia to come here and play off the bench.

    • G - Hunter (if he returns)
    • G - Amas
    • G/F - TBD - Weaver (small) or Cunningham (big) or Mitchell (if he returns) or TBD from the portal
    • F - Disu
    • C - Shedrick

    -----------------------------------------

     

    • G - Weaver
    • F - Cunningham 
    • F - Onyema
    • F - Anamekwe
  3. 12 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

    We are not being biased with our opinion because it's backed by "facts and figures."  Yours, on the other hand, is biased.

    I don't think you have any idea what my opinion actually is. Please spell it out for me and I will tell you if you got it right.   

     

    14 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

    You can lose one or two talented guys and brush that off as anomaly, but when you lose four 5 stars in a span of a month (not sure it has happened anywhere ever), then it's a trend.

    Yes, four 5-stars is a lot to lose (although technically we have only lost three so far since Mitchell could be back). Regardless, I agree it sucks.

    You know what else sucks?  Losing one 5 star plus EIGHT 4-stars in your first month on the job.  Holy shit!

    • Greg Brown (early entry) - 5 star
    • Donovan Williams (transfer) - 4 star
    • Royce Hamm (transfer) - 4 star
    • Kamaka Hepa (transfer) - 4 star
    • Gerald Lidell (transfer) - 4 star
    • Kai Jones (early entry) - 4 star
    • Matt Coleman (early entry) - 4 star
    • Tamar Bates (decomit) - 4 star
    • David Joplin (decomit) - 4 star
    • Keeyan Itejere (decomit) - 3 star

    It seemed to turn out all right for Chris Beard.  Maybe it will turn out ok for Terry.  Maybe it won't. 

    • Hook 'Em 4
  4. I honestly don’t think there are many true sunshine pumpers. This isn’t like the old days of Mack Brown and Chris Sims sunshine pumping. Almost everyone here would have liked to hire Jay Wright or someone of that caliber.  Most people are just asking to give RT time and also acknowledging that transfers are part of the game now and not necessarily a poor reflection on him.

    I haven’t heard anyone say “RT is the man!!! We are gonna go to the Final Four every year!!!” 

    But whatever.  

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. On 4/13/2023 at 1:45 PM, Rockethorn1978 said:

    Now we have RT and gonna hopefully end this experiment by end of year 2. 

    On 4/13/2023 at 11:01 AM, Red Five said:

    I understand why the decision was made. But I didn't like it then or now and I won't like it when we're coach shopping in two years. 

    On 4/14/2023 at 10:12 AM, UTEE97 said:

    However, most of us non-Terry fans saw where Terry's ceiling (and struggles) would be and didn't think that would be good enough for Texas.

    On 4/14/2023 at 9:04 PM, austintiger said:

    Don't hate rt. He is just a terrible head coach. I will get shit for saying it but you will see soon enough. 

     

    I mean this was just a few minutes of looking on this thread.  There have been many, many more posts like this.  Any time anything bad happens a certain set of posters can't help themselves but remind everyone that they didn't support his hiring.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  6. Well, if you like 5-stars, we are currently leading for the #1 recruit in the country.  

    I'm not worried about our recruiting long term at all.  We have a staff full of guys who are very good recruiters and we have the facility and NIL resources to compete with anyone.

    My main concern is the ability to put a team together where all the pieces make sense, with a well established culture that the whole team buys into.  We never got there with Shaka, despite recruiting classes full of amazing individual pieces.  

  7. 38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Obviously we can’t go into the season with only 3 healthy scholarship guards in Hunter, Abmas and Weaver.

    Perryman FTW!  I can see it now.  Abmas gets hurt in the NCAA Title game.  Perryman finally gets PT.  Hits like 5 3s and Disney makes a movie about him in 20 years.

    Personally I would like to see Cunningham get big minutes at the 3.  He was part of like 4 of our best 5 lineups last year.  (Does anybody still have that post?)  He makes winning plays and makes others better.  Give the dude 25 minutes a game and watch us win.

     

  8. 4 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

    he's got plenty of leeway and room to grow. 

     

    I was with you until this point. Every single time anything bad happens, Group 1 falls all over themselves to remind everyone that RT is not and never has been our standard.

    It is a beating. And because if that, Group 2 overreacts to any good news.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  9. 17 minutes ago, HookEm said:

    Then I summed the points for each team and compared it to end of year results.  Almost every national champion ended up being in the top-10 using this system.

    I decided to run the numbers with this method for UConn.  Turns out they would have had 434 points.  That would historically be a top-10 team.

    Texas this year had 266 points.  That would historically be a top-30 level team.

    Texas in 2021 had 940 points.  That would historically be the #1 team in most years.  Damnit.

     

    • Rage+1 1
  10. Again, I'm not saying it is bad.  5-stars are great and losing them sucks on a variety of levels.  As I said, the whole thing is an optimization exercise. You can definitely get good results with 5-stars. If your resources are limited though (e.g. NIL $$$), I think taking 3-4 "Player of the Year" mid-major transfers over a single high school 5-star is better.

    For many years, I maintained a big database of the top-100 players of each class with where they went to college and keep it maintained each year with just the active players.  I assigned each player points based on their classification and rank.  The top player got 100 points, #2 player go 99 and so forth down to the #100 player getting 1 point.  I also bumped each player up 17 points for each year that they were in the system.  Thus, the #34 player as a junior was about equal to the #1 player as a freshman.  (I did a fair amount of modeling to come up with this number).  Then I summed the points for each team and compared it to end of year results.  Almost every national champion ended up being in the top-10 using this system.  

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  11. 23 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

    Were you a detractor of 5 star recruits before we started losing them?

    Kind of.  Historically, I have felt like Michigan State's approach of building their class is the best one.  The bulk of their players in the 25-75 range who end up staying for multiple years.  I have long wished Texas followed this strategy.  They have only had 3 top-10 players in the last 17 years (only one a one-and-done) and yet have still made 5 Final Fours over that time.

    And all that was before NIL and easy transfers.  Now the 5-stars command money and playing time and it is almost a guarantee they only stay one year. If they don't go to the NBA they will be pissed off enough to transfer.  

    Look, I get as excited as anyone when we land a top-5 recruit.  I was excited for Greg Brown and Dillon Mitchell and Ron Holland.  I realize we are probably the favorite for the #1 recruit in the nation next year. I will be doing back flips if he picks Texas.  I can't help myself. 

    I just think there are better strategies to win.

    • Hook 'Em 6
    • Like 1
  12. 1 minute ago, RichUT said:


    Right, because there have been so many posts on this thread that have stressed the correlation between recruiting 5 stars and going deep in the tournament. It’s clearly an opinion held by so many here.

    emoji849.png

    Maybe the sarcasm didn't come across in my post. Figured people would pick up on it since I was one of the main detractors of recruiting 5-stars.

    • Like 1
  13. This year's rankings for On3 look much more reasonable however...

    • #1 - Hunter Dickenson - 3x 2nd team All-Big 10, 89 starts
    • #2 - Max Abmas - 2x Summit PoY, NCAA All-Region Team, 123 starts
    • #3 - Caleb Love - NCAA All-Region Team, 96 starts
    • #4 - Harrison Ingram - PAC 12 RoY, 62 starts.... but pretty meh last year, very low efficiency
    • #5 - Aaron Estrada - 1st team All-CAA, 77 starts
    • #6 - Grant Nelson - 1st team All Summit, All Defense, 56 starts
    • #7 - JJ Starling - ACC All-Freshman
    • #8 - Kel'el Ware - 4 starts at Oregon, meh Freshman year, former 5-star
    • #9 - Jameer Nelson - 1st team All-CAA, 97 starts
    • #10 - Taran Armstrong - 2nd team All-WAC, 58 starts
  14. Just here to say that the Tansfer Portal player rankings are pretty trash, especially On3.  They are not nearly as accurate as the high school rankings.  It is amazing how many really solid players get missed altogether, and who they chose to put in the top-10.

    A few examples from On3 for last year:

    • Keyontae Jonhson - K-State - Ranked #37 - Was previously 1st team SEC and had started 50+ games. Ended up 3rd Team All-American
    • Kendric Davis - Memphis - Ranked #94 - Was AAC PoY / 4-time All AAC. Ended up on final Wooden Award list averaging 22 ppg.
    • Tristen Newton - UConn - Unranked - NCAA All-Tourney Team, National Champion
    • Baylor Scheierman - Creighton - Unranked - Ended up on the NCAA All-Region team
    • Norchad Omier - Miami - Unranked - 3rd team All-ACC, key Final Four member
    • Tyree Appleby - Wake Forest - Unranked - Ended up 1st team All-ACC
    • Sir'Jabari Rice - Texas - Unranked - Big 12 6MoY, key Elite Eight member

    Meanwhile, they had these gems in their top 5:

    • #2 Bryan Antoine - Senior from Villanova who had started zero games in 3 years and averaged 2.3 points in his best year.  Did nothing.
    • #3 Samuel Williamson - Senior from Louisville averaging 5.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and started only 6 games as a junior.  Did nothing.
    • #4 Khristial Lander - Junior from Indiana averaged 2.9 points and had never started.  Did nothing.

    I could go on and on.

    It shouldn't be that hard to rank these guys. If a player is a multi-year starter and is 1st team in their conference, ANY conference, odds are he is going to be a stud.  If a player is a Soph and was very highly recruited (like top-25) and wasn't getting a lot of minutes on a more experienced team, they are likely to be good (but not AS likely).  If a player makes an all-Freshman team in a major conference, they are likely to be very good.

    Rice had started 74 games at NM STate and was 94-26 in games played and was 1st team All-WAC.  He should have been a top-50 transfer.

    • Hook 'Em 6
    • Like 2
  15. 49 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

    We need to stop including Gavin Perryman in these rotation projections. The guy shouldn't be playing any significant minutes outside of when we kick the crap out of Houston Christian and Arkansas Pine Bluff in the 'Chris Beard classic'.

    That is why I had him in the #10 spot.  As such I wouldn’t expect more than a few minutes of garbage time.

  16. If this ends up being our team in November, I would give the offseason a solid A.  This team would be expected to make the Sweet 16 or better. 

    Starters:

    • Tyrese Hunter
    • Max Abmas
    • Dillon Mitchell
    • Dylan Disu
    • Kaden Shedrick

    Bench

    • Brock Cunningham
    • Chendall Weaver
    • Ze'Rik Onyema
    • Alex Anamekwe
    • Gavin Perryman

    Swap Hunter for Tyrin Lawrence and it is still a solid A.  Swap Dillon Mitchell for another top-tier wing and it still might be an A depending on the wing.  Grab another really good combo guard and it moves up to A+ 

    I think it is very likely that we will see a leap from Dillon Mitchell if he comes back. I also think Tyrese Hunter is going to be much better, possibly All-Conference caliber.

    • Hook 'Em 4
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