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HookEm

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Posts posted by HookEm

  1. 7 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

    again, if we hadn’t hired RT then what would he be doing? he’d be at some MWC or CUSA school doing nothing of note

    What about now? Coming off a second year with a tourney win, a top-25 KenPom final year ranking, and having just signed the #8 HS recruiting class?  If RT wanted out at Texas and tested the water, I think he would land a decent job.  Maybe not as good as Marquette or Tennessee, but better than Fresno State. 

    I think RT would do better at Stanford than Kyle Smith (for instance).

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  2. 12 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

    if we had money whipped timmy lloyd, nate oats, or even tj otzelberger then Texas would be in the beginning stages of what is hopefully the most prosperous era in the history of Texas Basketball

    Following last season, T.J. Otzelberger was 41-27 at ISU and they were an 11 seed and got bounced in the 1st round.  And at UNLV before that he was 29-30 and missed the tourney both years.  It isn't like he was a sure-thing hire.

    Tommy Lloyd would have likely parlayed any interest from us into a big raise at Arizona.  

    We probably could have gotten Nate Oats. 

  3. 1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

    Next season is everything for RT. Miss the tourney or be a last 4 in and bounced etc, the following season will be full on hot seat. 
     

    Finish top 3 in conference and make the sweet 16 and he gets an extension. 

    I agree with this. If he misses the tourney, the bar is going to be pretty high the following season, maybe Sweet 16 to keep his job. 

  4. Literally nobody was thrilled with the hire of RT. Literally nobody is currently thrilled with him. Literally everybody knows that we can do better.

    The only argument is whether there is any chance we fire him anytime soon. I personally don’t think there is. He would have to win only like 10 games next year to be fired - and he isn’t going to. We are going to sign a very good haul in the portal to go with our excellent HS class and win 20+ games again.

    And honestly my take is the most doom and gloom take you can have. Thinking we are going to suck isn’t doom and gloom. It is actually an optimistic take because there is hope we can hire an elite coach. My “good but not great” take is the worst case scenario because we may not move on for 6-8 years.

  5. 1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

    Chris Johnson to the portal, per On3

    I was happily surprised when it was reported that he was staying a few weeks ago. I think he will end up being a very solid player when all is said and done.  

    Oh well, we should be able to get someone who can more immediately contribute.  I don't think he was going to suddenly become awesome overnight.  He is probably not going to be very good for at least another full year

  6. image.png.d6796fd4fb8da7bbff39db9ad964104e.png

    Not only are these ugly as shit, and the orange is the wrong color, they have by far my biggest pet peeve for Texas gear... adding black to the mix.  Black is not one of our colors.  We aren't Oklahoma State.  Our colors are Orange and White. That's it. If you have to have another color, throw some gray in there. 

    Example:  The one on the left is good. The one on the right is shit.  I hate, hate, hate black outline on burnt orange.

    image.thumb.png.bba24b1bb66bd03f9dace5fda75d2174.png

    \Rant

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  7. Marquette is the #39 program per KenPom going back to 1997.  They have finished 56, 10 and 14 under Shaka, which puts them ~top-20.  If I'm honest, Shaka is better than a top-40 coach, and is just on the fringe of the top-25.  So, for Marquette he is a great fit.

    At Texas, he had us with the #23 best average KenPom ranking over his tenure.  He had VCU as the #31 ranked team over his tenure there.  

    I wish he would have worked out at Texas. I was really excited when we hired him... almost as excited as when we hired Beard.  And he was just about as hot as Beard as a coach when we hired him. But he was such a moron here, that I will root for him to fail wherever he goes.  Does that make me petty? Yes. Next question.

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  8. 5 hours ago, HookEm said:

    I'm going to hold off on further comments about Shaka choking until he bows out this year.  He beat the hell out of us and very well could be in the Elite 8 by this time tomorrow.

    OK. Now we can make fun of Shaka again.  Whew!

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  9. 22 hours ago, 'stache said:

    That's a pretty meh hire for a place like Louisville.

    Agreed. I think they could have done better. This is a risky hire in my opinion.

    Just for fun, here are Pat Kelsey's KenPom team stats compared to Rodney Terry's record prior to Texas:

    • Pat Kelsey –  12-YR Career Avg: 153 –  Best 5 Teams:  71, 101, 101, 113, 140 – Tourney Wins: 0

    • Rodney Terry – 10-YR Career Avg: 151 – Best 5 Teams: 79, 98, 108, 109, 116 – Tourney Wins: 0

    Pretty similar. Kelsey has made more tourneys, but his teams weren't actually rated very well.  

     

  10. KenPom had us at #16 pre-season, and we were an improbable pair of made TN free throw away from potentially making the Sweet 16.  The only other schools who got close were Oakland, Colorado and A&M.  So you could say we finished the year in the 17-20 range.  Pretty solid prediction. 

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  11. Texas should definitely be the 800 pound gorilla in this era of college sports, regardless of the sport.

    The last 3 years have definitely favored experienced teams, with all of the 5 and 6 year players enabled through Covid.  But with the extra Covid year now over, I think the young talent will go up in value.  And it is good timing because we are reloading with some top-tier young talent.

    Regarding Mitchell, if he leaves it will be to a top team like Kansas - and then we are all going to watch with dismay when he is a huge contributor.

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  12. I thought it might be interesting to trend the data from all of Derka's KenPom updates through the year.  It seemed like the team got a lot better in the later part of the year, especially on defense and I wanted to see what the data looked like. 

    The blue line is offense rating, the green line is defense.  The solid line is where we finished the year.

    We ended up finishing about where we started on offense.  KenPom's had us at #30 in the preseason and we finished at #29. Most of the season we in that range.  

    Defense was a different story. KenPom had us at #6 to start the year and it took us it took 6-7 games for the model to settle in where we belonged ~50-60.  Our average and median rank was 44 and 50 respectively.   We bottomed out after the BYU game ranking #74!! on defense.  For me, that felt like the low point of the season. 

    From there, we took Houston to OT and then beat TCU and K-State and punished West Virginia.  The only real defensive lapse was giving up 93 to Baylor, which accounted for the spike toward the end of the season. Overall, there was a definite positive trend in the last 2 months of the season.    

    image.thumb.png.b2969a67ff5b019586a32f5942d51a8f.png

     

    Our overall ranking mirrored our defensive ranking to a large degree.  

    image.png.1bbc02f7a90f2da3b6e0eec11d8ba944.png

     

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  13. Perhaps, but Shedrick is #2 on the team in BPM and for me he had at least as many cringe moments as Hunter.  Mitchell was #3 on the team and half the people on this thread want him to hit the portal.

  14. I agree with just about all of that.  I don't think being "nice" is a criteria at all.  That said, recruiting matters a ton. Retention of your elite talent matters a ton. Motivating and in-season improvement matter a tremendous amount.  Handling the media and donors and assistants matters a lot too.  Being nice is great if you can leverage it to help with all that.  But you can also be an asshole and do all of that well too.

  15. Tyrese Hunter has started all 106 games of his college career. And as a starter, his team has won 6 tournament games (a Sweet 16, an Elite 8 and a Round of 32).  On the ISU Sweet 16 team, he lead the team in assists and was 2nd in scoring and minutes. On last year's Elite 8 team, he was 3rd in scoring, 3rd in assists and 3rd in minutes.  On this year's team he was tied for 1st in assists, 1st in steals, 3rd in scoring, 2nd in minutes.

    TJ Otzelberger and Chris Beard both thought enough of him to make him a starter - and he has proven he can start on an elite team that has success in March.  Just about anybody you get in the portal to replace him is going to carry way more risk than they bring in upside.  Hunter also has a lot of "dog" in him and can be a defensive menace.

    By far his biggest issue is the turnovers. My goodness the turnovers.  We have had a lot of players who have had similar turnover metrics, but it isn't really the number of turnovers, it is when and how they happen. For the year, he averaged 2.6, which isn't terrible considering that at their BEST, TJ Ford had 2.5 a game. DJ Augustin had 2.8. Matt Coleman had 2.6.     

    I still mainly blame our roster composition. We had to have Hunter handling the ball to try to free up Abmas to move off the ball as our primary scorer.  I love Weaver, but wouldn't trust him as a primary ball handler against a team like Tennessee.  And Horton was also not the answer. 

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