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HookEm

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Posts posted by HookEm

  1. Maybe I'm the only one who would rather be at Ole Miss than Louisville.  Yes, Louisville has a better program historically, but with the pending demise of the ACC I would rather be at one of the big boy conferences until the dust settles.  

    I also think Beard's hard nosed, underdog, gritty mentality will not play as well at one of the historic blue bloods.  Or in the NBA for that matter.

    All this talk of how shitty Ole Miss is as a program and destination motivated me to see where they stand historically.  I created a database of all the Massey rankings since 1980. Not the best, but they are free and directionally accurate.  (I'll probably start a new thread on it because there are some interesting insights on the overall landscape).  But anyway, Ole Miss ranks the following:

    • Since 1980 - #57  (ahead of #69 Texas Tech)
    • Since 2000 - #52  (ahead of #60 Texas Tech)
    • Last 10 Yrs - #62 (behind #21 Texas Tech)
    • Last 5 Yrs - #58  (behind #13 Texas Tech)

    Beard is the big reason why Tech is a top-15 program over the last 5 years when historically they are worse than Ole Miss.  Just like his situation at Tech, they already have some solid infrastructure and are committed to improving the program (as evidenced by them hiring him in the first place). 

    I wouldn't be surprised if he roots down there. He had opportunity to leave Texas Tech before Texas came calling and he passed. 

  2. 30 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    What is funny about it to you? Do you lack the ability to grasp that people have opinions, as snapshots in time, that can change when new data is presented?

    The problem is that people were ignoring the data.  The fact is that the environment has changed. Yes we lost some people to the portal.  Yes we lost some recruits.  Replacing them takes time and usually happens in late spring to early summer.  We weren't going to go 5-25. Anybody looking at the data and coming to that conclusion was a moron. 

    I predict that this year we will lose a few players to the draft. And then we will lose a few more to the portal. A few posters will freak out, seeing 6 players on the roster and think we are going to go 10-20 and will loudly proclaim that RT isn't "the guy".  Then we will get a handful of elite players in the portal and everything will be fine.  Go ahead and bookmark my post.

    If you were one of the morons that thought we were going to have to start Alex Anamekwe, well... I hope you use the data from last year a month from now and learn from it.

  3. Kind of funny to go back and read this thread from early-April of last year.  The majority of the board had written us off before we had brought in a single player from the portal.  Projections of 5-25 and missing the tournament.

     

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  4. I actually like what Mitchell brings to the team.  He is averaging 10 PTS and 7.7 TRB and is defending well.  His free throw shooting is up to 69% in conference, which is a huge improvement over his 40% free throw last year.  He gives us a nice burst of energy and is a good complement to Shedrick who is a little slow footed.  Mitchell is also someone who can really run the floor and is good for a few highlight dunks every game.  I'm not convinced that this is our last year with him on the roster - and I really hope he comes back.  

    The team has plenty of good pieces.  The most important one is Hunter. If he is attacking the basket and hitting a few 3s, we can beat anybody, even if Abmas or Disu aren't playing well.  

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  5. 1 hour ago, shadow_operative said:

    i can’t name a single poster here who has been going out of their way to shit on him, to call for his firing, to root against him, nothing.

    This would be a better point if it wasn't being made in a thread titled "Fire Rodney Terry".  🤪

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  6. OU can definitely do better than Porter Moser.  They should be gearing up to do some damage in the SEC.  Over the last 40 years, OU isn't that far off from blueblood territory and actually has a better average Massey rating than Indiana, Michigan, Florida, UConn, Virginia and Louisville.  Here is where they rank over various periods:

    • Last 5 years - 29
    • Last 10 years - 16
    • Since 2000 - 19
    • Since 1980 - 14

    It is a shame that Beard didn't just sit out the 2023 season, because he would have made a tremendous hire for them.  They may go after him anyway.

  7. Really the worst part of hiring RT is that it is going to be very hard to fire him.  The resources at UT are so good (the NIL money, the new arena, Austin, the UT marketing machine, the money to hire good assistants), that it will be hard for Terry to fail bad enough to get fired.  Simply making the tournament every year will likely be enough for him to finish his contract.

    I really think subconsciously (or consciously) everyone is aware of this.  So I think all this fighting really boils down to the anti-RT folks hoping that we go ahead and fail hard enough that we have to fire him, so we can move on and get a great coach. While the pro-RT folks are hoping that he can defy the odds and get us to a high level, because we know we are probably keeping him through his contract anyway.

    I don't think either side is delusional. We all have the same data. 

  8. 1 hour ago, Pancho said:

    The question is, what does success mean to those “pro RT” folks?

    Success probably means the same as for the "anti-RT" folks. 

    For me, it means being a top-10 program, which means regularly finishing in the KenPom top-10 and regularly being a top 1-3 seed.  And making 2nd weekend about half the time, with a Final Four sprinkled in every now and again.  Missing the tournament should almost never happen.

    Unfortunately we have never achieved the kind of long-term success that we are capable of.  Certainly not with Shaka. Not with Beard (key words being long-term). Not with Penders.  And not really even with Barnes.  

    I don't think a single one of the "pro RT" folks think he is capable of any of the above. I don't.  

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  9. 1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

    Who’s actually bullish on Rodney?   Even us “pro RT” guys are pretty guarded.

    Literally nobody.  There isn't a single UT fan that I know of, on this board or in real life, who believes that RT would have gotten the job if the Beard fiasco had happened in the offseason and we opened up an actual coaching search. All of the "RT apologists" are simply rooting for the team and providing a check against the doom and gloom.  Not one of us believe he is on the same level as Chris Beard (or Tom Izzo or Bill Self).  Let me repeat that for the millionth time.  Not one of us believe he is on the same level as Chris Beard (or Tom Izzo or Bill Self).

    But, I think a lot of us tire of the seemingly unfair characterization of RT.  He actually did a good job at Fresno State.  You could argue that he did the best job of any coach there in the last 40 years. And his tenure at UTEP was short and interrupted by Covid right in the middle of it.  At both spots he recruited way better than their historical averages. People don't have to mischaracterize RT as a bottom quartile coach, to show that he isn't good enough for Texas.  Once again, not one of us believe he is on the same level as Chris Beard, and we all believe that is the caliber of coach we can get.

    But... RT is our coach for at least a few years and I'm rooting for him to succeed.  And so far he is doing better than his previous record would suggest.  He has worked Porter Moser, a coach who had better accolades than him going into the job, coaching at a school with arguably a better basketball history.  I also wouldn't trade him for Jerome Tang or Wes Miller or Michael Boynton. 

    He also finished the year ranked better than OUR historic mean over the last 30 years. And those years were under the leadership of three coaches who have all won National Coach of the Year.  So, I would say he is doing a pretty decent job all things considered, but let's see what happens over the next few weeks.

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  10. 41 minutes ago, slorch said:

    I am wrong for saying Texas had a better roster? 

    I will grant you that Texas had the better roster this year. But once again, you are conveniently ignoring that McCasland had the opportunity for a MUCH more talented roster if he had simply done a better job keeping the talent that was available to him.

    So... McCasland is the better gameday coach and does more with less.  But RT is better at acquiring and keeping talent.  Agree?

  11. I think it lays out like this:

    • Lose to K-State - 8 / 9 seed
    • Beat K-State, lose to ISU - 7 /8 seed
    • Beat K-State, beat ISU, lose to Baylor/KU - 7 seed
    • Beat K-State, beat ISU, beat Baylor/KU, lose to UH - 6 seed
    • Win Big 12 Tournament - 5 seed

    A Big 12 tournament championship would give us 3 more Q1 wins, bringing our total to 8 Q1 wins.  There are currently only 8 teams in the country with that many.   A 5 seed seems reasonable at that point.

  12. Tech hired Grant McCasland March 31st of last year. That means he had the entire transfer portal window to convince existing Tech players to stay and to assemble a roster via the portal.

    Coming out of last season, he had:

    • Pop Isaacs - Big 12 All-Freshman team and one of the best returning guards in the conference
    • Jaylon Tyson - Transferred to Cal (May 12) and has averaged 19.6 PTS, 6.8 TRB 
    • Daniel Batcho - Transferred to Louisiana Tech (Apr 23) and is averaging 14.9 PTS, 9.8 TRB
    • Fardaws Aimaq - Transferred to Cal (Apr 27) and is averaging 14.7 PTS, 11.0 TRB
    • Elijah Fisher - Transferred to DePaul and is averaging 10.4 PTS, 3.7 TRB
    • KJ Allen - Transferred to Portland State and is averaging 13.0 PTS, 7.0 TRB
    • Lamar Washington - meh
    • Kerwin Walton - meh
    • D'maurian Williams - meh
    • Robert Jennings - meh
    • CJ Williams - meh

    So basically he kept Isaacs and a bunch of mediocre players and let a bunch of really solid to elite players go in the portal. 

    Should Terry get no credit for keeping Disu and Hunter? Or for convincing Mitchell to withdraw from the NBA?  All we really lost to transfer was Arterio Morris (who very well could go to prison) and Rowan Brumbaugh (who redshirted). 

    I give McCasland credit for doing very well with what he has, but don't act like he isn't responsible for the talent level on the court. He chose all those transfers, and he let a lot of talent get away.

  13. 1 minute ago, slorch said:

    You believe Texas has a weaker roster than Tech?

    If Tech has a weaker roster, why do they have a weaker roster?  Who had a higher starting point April 1 of last year?

  14. For every Bill Self, there are a lot of coaches who are successful at small colleges and then are unsuccessful once they get to a big time school and have to do all the other non basketball stuff. Or are successful with lunchpail athletes and then suck when they get elite athletes who are completely different in terms of coaching needs, play style and expectations.

    My hope with RT is that he is the opposite. Someone who is better (relatively) at a big time school than they should be based on their overall record. A guy who isn’t necessarily elite as a gameday coach. And who is a good but not great developer of talent, but is someone who knows how to motivate the blue chip athletes and manage all the alpha personalities. Someone who is self aware enough to hire elite assistants who can do the heavy lifting with player development.

    Basically the anti- Shaka Smart.

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  15. 3 hours ago, slorch said:

    Is McCasland  the comparison? Because he has coached his ass off this year,

    McCasland has done a tremendous job this year. Agree. I'm only saying that he wasn't a complete rock star at UNT. Tech hiring him was a bit of a gamble that seems to have paid off.

    The RT hire was also a gamble. Maybe it will pay off as well.  Maybe it won't.

  16. 3 hours ago, closetohumping said:

    I don’t think Beard is a top five coach.  Top ten?  Sure 

    Out of curiosity, who are your top-10?

    I would go:

    1. Bill Self
    2. Tom Izzo
    3. Scott Drew  (uggh)
    4. Mark Few
    5. Kelvin Sampson (uggh)

    Then the following in some order: Dan Hurley, Tony Bennett, Chris Beard, Rick Pitino, John Calipari, Nate Oats, Rick Barnes, Matt Painter, Jamie Dixon

    So maybe Beard isn't top-5. Hard to put him over any I listed in the top-5, especially with his current baggage.  But, he has a lot more runway than some of the others on the list, so he will likely get back there.

  17. Grant McCasland made the NCAA Tournament one time in 7 years coaching at UNT and Arkansas State. Rodney Terry made it once in 10 years at Fresno and UTEP. Not a huge difference.

    I agree that RT is not an elite coach and probably will never be one. But to date he is outperforming Shaka at Texas, who many thought was an elite coach both before and after his time at Texas. And the team has finished strong, both this year and last year - something we missed in the later Barnes years.

    If he makes the tournament every year, it is going to be hard to get rid of him.

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