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Posts posted by HookEm
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Dwyane Wade was great in the 2003 NCAA Tourney.
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1 hour ago, Hermanator said:
No 1 or 2 seed will be wary of playing us at all. We're decent talent wise but with some glaring holes, aren't very deep, and will have one of the worst P5 coaches in the tournament.
There are probably several potential 7-10 seeds the top seeds would rather avoid before us.
It is crazy that one of the worst P5 coaches is somehow going to finish in the top-6 in by far the hardest conference in the country, likely in the top-25 in KenPom, and ahead of 63/80 of those P5 coaches.
If we end up as a 7-seed, we are going to be the highest ranked 7-10 seed in KenPom. Any 1-2 seed that doesn't want to avoid us is really stupid.
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We really need to get out of the dreaded 8/9 game. Even if that means losing on purpose to get to a 10-11 seed.
That said, playing UConn again wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Last time they faced us we did ok without BOTH Disu and Shedrick.
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Ole Miss is within 300 miles of Atlanta, Memphis, Nashville, New Orleans, Little Rock and all the medium and small towns in between. There are 27M people within that 300 mile radius.
Lubbock is within 300 miles of DFW, Oklahoma City, Amarillo, Albuquerque. There are 14M people within that 300 mile radius.
Gonzaga is pretty remote and they seem to do ok.
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Here are the remaining schedules for the middle of the pack Big-12 Schools. Games between mid-pack teams are bolded.
- Kansas (9-6) - at Baylor (41%), K-State (79%), at Houston (26%)
- Baylor (9-6) - Kansas (59%), Texas (67%), at Tech (51%)
- BYU (8-7) - TCU (61%), at ISU (33%), OSU (74%)
- Tech (8-7) - at WV (59%), at OSU (56%), Baylor (49%)
- TCU (8-7) - at BYU (39%), at WV (59%), UCF (72%)
- OU (7-8) - Houston (28%), Cinci (65%), at Texas (33%)
- Texas (7-8) - OSU (78%), at Baylor (33%), OU (67%)
- K-State (7-8) - at Cinci (38%), at Kansas (21%), ISU (43%)
If all the favorites win, you end up with:
- 12-6 - Baylor
- 10-8 - KU
- 10-8 - BYU
- 10-8 - Tech
- 10-8 - TCU
- 9-9 - Texas
- 8-10 - OU
- 7-11 - K-State
So we really need the above teams to lose every game that isn't to another mid-pack team.
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In this era of NIL and transfer portal, there is really no excuse for a top tier coach not making the tournament, even in year 1.
Beard was hired March 13. That gave him the entire transfer portal to build a team - and the entire offseason to coach it up. And he wasn't coaching in March, so he could immediately get to recruiting those transfers. This season is ending up as a mild failure IMO.
If Coach K, Bill Self or Roy Williams took over Ole Miss in this era, everyone would expect them to be ultra competitive immediately. And top-tier players would have been transferring there from day 1. Beard signed the #12, #78, #106, #108, #132, #137 portal players. That is good, but not great.
He had a lot of advantages at Texas, but I also think the staff he put together was a great group of recruiters - including Rodney Terry. We'll see what year two looks like, but I'm not ready to declare that he is going to own us in the SEC.
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How dare you have optimism, sir.
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I think the takeaway is that 8/9 is a worse case scenario if you are looking to go very far. Have to avoid playing a 1-seed who are generally in a different class than the 2-4 seeds.
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Actually, just looked it up and it seems I'm right. Historic odds by seed:
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Is an 8 seed really better than an 11 seed? If the goal is making the Sweet 16 or farther, I think the 11 seed might be better.
By my rough maths:
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8 seed: ~6% you make Sweet 16
- Round 1: 55% vs. 9-seed
- Round 2: 10% vs. 1 seed. Almost no chance you get the 16 seed in round 2.
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11 seed: ~15% you make Sweet 16
- Round 1: 40% vs. 6-seed
- Round 2: 30% vs. 3-seed (or) 65% vs. 14-seed
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8 seed: ~6% you make Sweet 16
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1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:
You said we would make a deep run, which is an elite 8 or better.
You need to slow down and read better. Here is what I said: "At that point, we COULD bow out in round 1 OR make a deep run."
And I stand by that. We could easily lose in the first round. Or we could make it to the Sweet 16, or possibly beyond. I doubt we face a team with TWO better players than Disu and Abmas before the Elite Eight. I mean hell, we took the #1 team in the country to OT. Abmas took Oral freaking Roberts to the Sweet 16 with a worse supporting cast than this.
I wouldn't bet on us making a deep run, but it definitely could happen.
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1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:
This team will not see the second weekend of the tourney. What a laughable take.
Tell me you're not a college basketball fan without telling me you're not a college basketball fan.
I'm not saying we WILL make the 2nd weekend. But way worse teams than us have in recent years.
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He really does play like a WWE villain, even down to how he interacts with the crowd and his facial gestures. The condescending smile. Standing proud and looking directly at them and giving the horns up. All of it. I love it.
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Updated odds based on Massey:
- 0-3: 6.5% - Probably an 11 seed if we make it in. Maybe First Four as well.
- 1-2: 36.7% - Likely 9-10 seed
- 2-1: 49.9% - Likely 7-8 seed
- 3-0: 6.7% - We are top-5 in the conference at this point. 6 seed IMO. Maybe even better.
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I think we can all blame Beard.
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Every school in the Big 12 hates Texas, but none as much as Texas Tech. They desperately want to be our rival, but know that at best they are 3rd or even 4th in our pecking order of rivals.
They promote a rebellious culture... a "F you, Us vs. the world, Everyone is against us" type of mindset. Kids that go to TCU or Baylor come from rich families, which makes it tough to play the victim card. Aggy thinks they are equal to Texas and are mad that they don't get the same props. But Tech stokes the inferiority complex with Texas being the big bad villain. And when we "stole" Chris Beard, it just fed into that complex.
This game was huge for Tech because basketball is a source of pride for them. They know they have better hoops fans than us, and honestly better on-court performance over the last 15 years. This was their chance for scoreboard in basketball, and really in life. The stakes went beyond the game last night.
I say all of this as a product of the panhandle with two Tech parents and Tech parents in-law. My daughter will likely go there and my nephew is a football student assistant. This was their David vs. Goliath moment. Their chance to once and for all hit the bully in the mouth. And all that passion came to a head when Brock made his play. I really thought it had Malice at the Palace potential.
It was delicious.
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SMH.
I’m not supporting Terry. To be clear, I wish we hadn’t hired him and don’t think he will ever be very good. But there is no need to have revisionist history. Just go look at threads from a year ago.
It is possible to give Terry a lot of credit for last year and also think we made a mistake in hiring him.- 1
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There is so much wrong with these arguments and you know it. Rice was the first game after the Beard news and OU is our arch rival. Why would any objective person point to those games as evidence that the program was a mess? It's like saying Michigan was in bad shape for the way they played when Harbaugh was suspended.
The level of doom and gloom around here was off the charts in December and January. Every game was followed by Derka posts showing how our defense was falling off a cliff. The negativity really picked up after K-State worked us at home, a full month after Beard was arrested. It all peaked in February when we lost 4 of 6 and narrowly avoided a 5th loss, again to OU. The program was absolutely a mess for those 2+ months.
Then we beat Kansas at home and got hot in the Big 12 tourney. But things were pretty bleak in February.- 1
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Or maybe Tech was looking ahead to its Super Bowl on Saturday?
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The season could still swing wildly with 4 games to play. Based on the Massey probabilities:
- 0-4: 3%
- 1-3: 20%
- 2-2: 45%
- 3-1: 25%
- 4-0: 7%
At 8-10 we definitely get in, regardless of the Big 12 tourney. At 7-11, it is definitely dicey. Probably no better than 50/50 in that case and we would definitely have some work to do in the Big 12 tourney. Still, if those odds hold that gives us over 80% chance to make the tourney. At that point, we could bow out in round 1 or make a deep run.
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We probably would have started 3 guards from day 1 if Love would have come here. Hunter + Abmas + Love + Mitchell + Disu would have been interesting.
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The program was certainly in a mess when RT inherited it. Rice... RICE took us to overtime in his first game. And we barely beat OU, who had a losing record. The team was reeling and it looked like the wheels were about to fall off. Then the ship got righted and the team kept improving through the end of the season. Many want to credit Beard for the culture, but all that was gone in the month following his arrest.
RT deserves a lot of credit for not jacking with the rotations, including having Sir'Jabari coming off the bench. I thought a lot of his game management and play calling was very good at the time. Disu also showed a ton of improvement over the course of the season. Some of that could be getting healthy, but his actual game also improved - including his little push shot in the lane.
I thought in the offseason that the Frank Haith hire was great. Turns out, maybe it wasn't. And maybe losing Donewald hurt more than I thought at the time.
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16 hours ago, shadow_operative said:
caleb love transferring from unc to arizona might be the best all around transfer in the short history of the portal. really worked out well for all parties.
I recall us being one of the finalists for his services. Thought most here were cool on the idea. He definitely would have been a better add than Horton.
Texas Basketball 2023-24
in Basketball
Posted
I've read some stupid shit on this board, but this takes the cake. In our history, Texas has never made the Elite 8 in back to back years. Ever. But if RT doesn't make it this year, the season is a failure? Lololol. Do you even stop to think before you spout this crap?
Given our losses, just making the tournament this year is a small success, especially given how brutal the Big 12 is this year.
Also I get that Beard deserves credit for "building" the roster last year and developing the players in the offseason. But RT didn't exactly "inherit" the team. He and the rest of the staff were right there in the middle of it all, from recruiting, to conditioning, to player development.