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HookEm

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Posts posted by HookEm

  1. Quote

    they make another run to the elite 8 or better then it's a success. If they fall short of that it's a step back from the previous season and a failure. 

    I've read some stupid shit on this board, but this takes the cake.  In our history, Texas has never made the Elite 8 in back to back years.  Ever.  But if RT doesn't make it this year, the season is a failure?  Lololol.  Do you even stop to think before you spout this crap?

    Given our losses, just making the tournament this year is a small success, especially given how brutal the Big 12 is this year.  

    Also I get that Beard deserves credit for "building" the roster last year and developing the players in the offseason. But RT didn't exactly "inherit" the team.  He and the rest of the staff were right there in the middle of it all, from recruiting, to conditioning, to player development.  

    • Hook 'Em 3
  2. 1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

    No 1 or 2 seed will be wary of playing us at all. We're decent talent wise but with some glaring holes, aren't very deep, and will have one of the worst P5 coaches in the tournament. 

    There are probably several potential 7-10 seeds the top seeds would rather avoid before us. 

    It is crazy that one of the worst P5 coaches is somehow going to finish in the top-6 in by far the hardest conference in the country, likely in the top-25 in KenPom, and ahead of 63/80 of those P5 coaches.

    If we end up as a 7-seed, we are going to be the highest ranked 7-10 seed in KenPom.  Any 1-2 seed that doesn't want to avoid us is really stupid.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. We really need to get out of the dreaded 8/9 game.  Even if that means losing on purpose to get to a 10-11 seed. 

    That said, playing UConn again wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Last time they faced us we did ok without BOTH Disu and Shedrick.

  4. Here are the remaining schedules for the middle of the pack Big-12 Schools.  Games between mid-pack teams are bolded.

    • Kansas (9-6) - at Baylor (41%), K-State (79%), at Houston (26%)
    • Baylor (9-6) - Kansas (59%), Texas (67%), at Tech (51%)
    • BYU (8-7) - TCU (61%), at ISU (33%), OSU (74%) 
    • Tech (8-7) - at WV (59%), at OSU (56%), Baylor (49%)
    • TCU (8-7) - at BYU (39%), at WV (59%), UCF (72%) 
    • OU (7-8) - Houston (28%), Cinci (65%), at Texas (33%) 
    • Texas (7-8) - OSU (78%), at Baylor (33%), OU (67%)
    • K-State (7-8) - at Cinci (38%), at Kansas (21%), ISU (43%)

    If all the favorites win, you end up with:  

    • 12-6 - Baylor
    • 10-8 - KU
    • 10-8 - BYU
    • 10-8 - Tech
    • 10-8 - TCU
    • 9-9 - Texas
    • 8-10 - OU
    • 7-11 - K-State

    So we really need the above teams to lose every game that isn't to another mid-pack team.  

  5. In this era of NIL and transfer portal, there is really no excuse for a top tier coach not making the tournament, even in year 1. 

    Beard was hired March 13. That gave him the entire transfer portal to build a team - and the entire offseason to coach it up.  And he wasn't coaching in March, so he could immediately get to recruiting those transfers.  This season is ending up as a mild failure IMO. 

    If Coach K, Bill Self or Roy Williams took over Ole Miss in this era, everyone would expect them to be ultra competitive immediately.  And top-tier players would have been transferring there from day 1.  Beard signed the #12, #78, #106, #108, #132, #137 portal players.  That is good, but not great.  

    He had a lot of advantages at Texas, but I also think the staff he put together was a great group of recruiters - including Rodney Terry.  We'll see what year two looks like, but I'm not ready to declare that he is going to own us in the SEC.  

    • Hook 'Em 2
  6. Is an 8 seed really better than an 11 seed?  If the goal is making the Sweet 16 or farther, I think the 11 seed might be better.

    By my rough maths:

    • 8 seed:  ~6% you make Sweet 16
      • Round 1:  55% vs. 9-seed
      • Round 2:  10% vs. 1 seed. Almost no chance you get the 16 seed in round 2. 
    • 11 seed:  ~15% you make Sweet 16
      • Round 1:  40% vs. 6-seed
      • Round 2:  30% vs. 3-seed (or) 65% vs. 14-seed
  7. 1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    You said we would make a deep run, which is an elite 8 or better.

    You need to slow down and read better.  Here is what I said:  "At that point, we COULD bow out in round 1 OR make a deep run."  

    And I stand by that. We could easily lose in the first round.  Or we could make it to the Sweet 16, or possibly beyond.  I doubt we face a team with TWO better players than Disu and Abmas before the Elite Eight.  I mean hell, we took the #1 team in the country to OT.  Abmas took Oral freaking Roberts to the Sweet 16 with a worse supporting cast than this.

    I wouldn't bet on us making a deep run, but it definitely could happen.

    • Hook 'Em 1
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  8. 1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    This team will not see the second weekend of the tourney. What a laughable take. 

    Tell me you're not a college basketball fan without telling me you're not a college basketball fan. 

    I'm not saying we WILL make the 2nd weekend. But way worse teams than us have in recent years.

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  9. Updated odds based on Massey:

    • 0-3: 6.5% - Probably an 11 seed if we make it in. Maybe First Four as well.
    • 1-2: 36.7% - Likely 9-10 seed
    • 2-1: 49.9% - Likely 7-8 seed
    • 3-0: 6.7% - We are top-5 in the conference at this point. 6 seed IMO. Maybe even better.

     

  10. SMH.

    I’m not supporting Terry. To be clear, I wish we hadn’t hired him and don’t think he will ever be very good. But there is no need to have revisionist history. Just go look at threads from a year ago.

    It is possible to give Terry a lot of credit for last year and also think we made a mistake in hiring him.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. There is so much wrong with these arguments and you know it. Rice was the first game after the Beard news and OU is our arch rival. Why would any objective person point to those games as evidence that the program was a mess? It's like saying Michigan was in bad shape for the way they played when Harbaugh was suspended.

    The level of doom and gloom around here was off the charts in December and January. Every game was followed by Derka posts showing how our defense was falling off a cliff. The negativity really picked up after K-State worked us at home, a full month after Beard was arrested. It all peaked in February when we lost 4 of 6 and narrowly avoided a 5th loss, again to OU. The program was absolutely a mess for those 2+ months.

    Then we beat Kansas at home and got hot in the Big 12 tourney. But things were pretty bleak in February.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. The season could still swing wildly with 4 games to play.  Based on the Massey probabilities:

    • 0-4: 3%
    • 1-3: 20%
    • 2-2: 45%
    • 3-1: 25%
    • 4-0: 7%

    At 8-10 we definitely get in, regardless of the Big 12 tourney.  At 7-11, it is definitely dicey.  Probably no better than 50/50 in that case and we would definitely have some work to do in the Big 12 tourney. Still, if those odds hold that gives us over 80% chance to make the tourney.  At that point, we could bow out in round 1 or make a deep run.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  13. The program was certainly in a mess when RT inherited it.  Rice... RICE took us to overtime in his first game.  And we barely beat OU, who had a losing record.  The team was reeling and it looked like the wheels were about to fall off.  Then the ship got righted and the team kept improving through the end of the season.  Many want to credit Beard for the culture, but all that was gone in the month following his arrest.  

    RT deserves a lot of credit for not jacking with the rotations, including having Sir'Jabari coming off the bench.  I thought a lot of his game management and play calling was very good at the time.  Disu also showed a ton of improvement over the course of the season.  Some of that could be getting healthy, but his actual game also improved - including his little push shot in the lane.

    I thought in the offseason that the Frank Haith hire was great. Turns out, maybe it wasn't.  And maybe losing Donewald hurt more than I thought at the time.  

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. 16 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

    caleb love transferring from unc to arizona might be the best all around transfer in the short history of the portal. really worked out well for all parties.

    I recall us being one of the finalists for his services. Thought most here were cool on the idea.  He definitely would have been a better add than Horton.

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