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Thetexashammer

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Thetexashammer

  1. 6 minutes ago, immamac said:

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    just to show you how insane of a premise it is that neg rep drives anything at all around here. Most of those spikes are fatwas on boards that have nothing to do with fucking CR and are on 9.95 and football.

    I'm running a custom query now to see who the top 5 neg reppers are because there isn't a stock report that shows that. 

     

    Thank you. I look forward to my victory lap LOL.

    I mostly live in Europe, I don't make it to Austin much. But I'm not sure your I trust your assessment that the Austin economy is in collapse. In any case, does nobody care about the overall value of your business? I would have thought that was top priority.

  2. 6 minutes ago, immamac said:

    weird that has nothing to do with burnt ends at all, which you still can't seem to comprehend. Thats the whole point of you being a moron, you literally are talking about something that has nothing to do with the entire fucking topic because you have some opinion with you and your 5 moron friends who vote a certain way and are afraid of negative internet points. 

    I thought the topic was "Surly Horns State of Things". Am I in the wrong thread? Please move my posts to the correct thread. 

    When you sober up, there is money on the table.

  3. 12 minutes ago, immamac said:

    you both are complete morons who have no data and are making up random shit. 

    The fact that you can't discern between a literal subscription called treefiddy and a specific NIL program that has it's own landing page and specific entitlements and a guarantee that we have not only lived up to but exceeded from paying out 100% of the proceeds is actually so fucking stupid it's insulting. 

    Cool. You have the data. Who are the five posters who have handed the most negrep?

    I will give $100 the Burnt Ends and sign up for TreeFiddy is the top five most active negreppers are not TDS sufferers. Also if JimmyJazz is not on the list.

  4. 4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

    The economy is considerably better than it has been in many years since the Shag started. Including last year, ‘21 and certainly ‘20. 

    It’s been said before, but the nature and dominance of the CR hard left lean is the primary reason for your difficulty with fund raising. 

    Texags is a village of idiots. Blind loyalty, redass till death. That's their brand.

    The front door for this website is football. But the football forum is not even close to the busiest forum, not even during football season. Not even when we are winning bigly.

    The Shaggy/Surly brand, this may be shocking, used to be that you could find intelligent people from all perspectives engaged in rational discussion. And tits.

    The football brought people in, they stayed for rational and interesting discussion across a wide variety of topics. Now a small contingent of posters are engaged in spree negrepping across every forum. They are also the ones engaged in 95% of the name calling on the site. The site has become an intellectual ghetto in the same way that Texags is. Except our "brand" requires intelligent discussion. The site would grow a lot more if that was still around. But it isn't because of the rep system. Half of your potential customers prefer Trump over Biden. People don't necessarily mind conflict, but they will get banned as a result of spree repping.

    Like MJ said, "Republicans buy shoes too". 

    I don't pay because I know I management does not want me here. Also because I go years without posting. 

    I'd like to see a table of all posters in rank order of number of negreps. I guarantee that with numbers that exceed the median by 100x, the posters with the most negreps are all TDS sufferers. I would guess JimmyJazz has the highest number.

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  5. 9 hours ago, EastHorn said:

    You are correct. I guess by lock down I mean the basics like a lower level position coach at their games each week. 

    I just wanted to point out they had a losing record. Cause fuck Deion and his fucking virtue signaling. 

    “And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full."

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  6. 1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

    The plan was incredibly naive in hindsight. We gave them a lot of equipment, but it wasn't nearly enough. We also fucked around so long that the Russians had plenty of time to prepare extensive layered defenses. We could also get into the parts where we asked Ukraine to execute complex combined arms maneuvers while not actually giving them the equipment to set up the conditions any NATO army would set prior to attempting those maneuvers.

    The numbers of battle tanks was too small, surely. But so was the ability to support and fuel those tanks.  It's not just "a tank" it's an entire sustainment system that needs to operate in support of that tank. I saw an assessment that the average life span of a tank engaged in active combat is two weeks. If that is even close to correct, tanks are not the key to winning the battle. I think in today's environment, meaning drones, tanks do not make the critical difference. If they are out in the open, they get killed pretty quick. 

    A bigger problem is the minefields. Russia has mined the shit out of every farmers field across the entire length of the battlefield. Out of courtesy to the Ukranians, they left open certain roads. These roads are what Americans call "kill zones". They funnel the enemy into a narrow corridor for easy targeting. I don't think anyone has the demining equipment, or the balls to sit out there and get shelled while engaged in demining operations.

    Either way, I don't think a few more tanks or a few more artillery shells will win the war. And I am sure you don't think that either. As best I can tell, there is no summer offensive this year. There is no hope of a breakthrough anytime soon, and some risk of a Russian offensive success this summer. The risk of a complete Ukranian collapse is higher than that of Russia at this point.

    There is no Wisdom of Solomon that can win the moment. Escalation is the only choice. Shit or get off the pot.

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  7. 42 minutes ago, B00M said:


    The Pentagon has said that if congress doesn’t get their shit together, Ukraine is about to be outgunned. That’s factually correct and says nothing about Ukraine’s longer term prospects for victory. As is, Russia will have a ~1 month window where they have a large advantage in terms of men, artillery, and Ukraine will be starved of air defenses. Ukraine is about to needlessly suffer and undoubtedly lose territory and infrastructure because of the US House. It’s hard for me to think of a recent example of US Politicians more directly having blood on their hands. 

    But since you apparently haven’t been paying attention, I’ll spell out how Ukraine wins:

    1 - Ukraine immediately receives a stockpile of Patriot missiles and ~7+ patriot systems from the ~100 spread across the EU. Russia has only been able to take out so much Ukrainian power production recently due to a shortage of Patriot missiles. Aside from reducing civilian suffering, this greatly diminishes Russia’s ability to use glide bombs on Ukrainian fortifications at the front because when patriots get near the front, Russia starts losing a jet a day on those glide bomb runs. Russia has only been able to achieve pockets of air superiority recently due to the patriot shortage. 

    2 - Ukraine receives artillery, mortars, etc… they’ve proven they don’t need to match Russia’s 10k shells per day to prevent Russian advance because they’re more efficient. But they’ll start receiving the 1-2+ million shells from the Czech led initiative in June. If the US could get them something like 6k shells per day immediately, they’d be able to hold the lines until June.

    3 - Ukraine continues playing defense, smoking Russians at a 4:1 to 10+:1 clip … Ukraine receives F16s and enough long range weapons to permanently push Russian support hubs and 100+ miles from the front. Yes, Ukraine has had to give up some land since Avdiivka fell, but they’ve retreated to naturally advantageous positions. They now have water barriers and the high ground and Russian advances have largely stopped again. 

    4 - Ukraine takes out that bridge in the east and the rail lines over the land bridge to Crimea and chokes out the peninsula. 

    5 - Ukraine continues relentlessly targeting Russian oil and gas, Russian manufacturing, power plants, etc. Starve the machine of oil. This is the most obvious way to break Russia. 

    6 - Sustain the lines and keep Ukraine mostly clean and productive for 2+ more years. Russia is losing about 1k men per day. Their infrastructure is failing. They’re hemorrhaging billions of dollars a day in lost o&g revenue. Their stockpiles are demonstrably running low and they’re about to be completely dependent on their own production rates (which appear very insufficient) and supplies from their shit stain allies. Inflation is already very high in Russia and will get much worse due to shortages. Russia will break. Go fuck yourself

     

     

     

    Almost two years ago, the guy I was sitting next to got tasked to go to DC to participate in the planning for Ukraine's summer offensive. That was our plan they executed last summer, and it didn't work.

    We provided them all a metric shitton of equipment, tanks, 155mm artillery, missiles, more than enough to engage in what we call, by doctrine, combined arms operations. We sent their people to our bases, where they were given training on our equipment. Lastly, we developed the war plan that they were expected to implement. We supplied all of their logistical needs. We provided everything you could need to win a battle. 

    The result of their efforts was the Ukraine got beat. They were unable to retake any territory. We can look back in retrospect and talk about air supremacy and drones and whatnot, but Ukraine has nothing to show for everything that we gave them. They are not, by any measurable metric, winning the war. In the present scenario, there is exactly zero reason to believe they can win. Attrition is not in their favor.

    Most of what you posted above is hope, not reality. Improving their defense, Patriot missiles or otherwise, will not win the war, merely prolong it. They need a dramatic increase in the resources available to fight the war, and they need it soon. I asked the question and I will ask it again. Show me the tactical path to victory. How will a depleted, borderline elderly, and outmanned Ukrainian army engage in offensive operations and destroy the Russian army in its territory?  

    BREAK BREAK

    What I am in favor of is cutting off Russia from SWIFT. I support much stronger sanctions on Russia and Russian companies. I am favor of giving Ukraine much more powerful missiles IOT destroy the Kerch Bridge permanently. We should end the ability of Russians to freely travel outside of their country. I am in favor of an international tribunal similar to Nuremburg at which we can convict as many Russians as possible for their crimes.

    What I'd like to see is Poland send its army into Ukraine, as well as the Baltics and France. A bigger key would be sending their support people. Meaning maintenance and logistics. Establish ano fly zone over Ukraine and kill everything that moves. Probably, that would help a little. But alone it would not win the war. More likely, the Polish, Baltics, French, and maybe the US will need to start actively killing Russians, if the standard is to expel the Russians from Ukraine, including Crimea, a goal which I support. Of course we need to send much better weapons to the Ukrainians, not just artillery shells and F-16s. AC-130s maybe?

    Under no conditions should Putin be allowed to win this, or to appear to have won, or in any way defeated the West.

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  8. 55 minutes ago, B00M said:

    It is absolutely without merit. If Ukraine falls, the men, women, and children of all of Ukraine will suffer immensely for the humiliation they’ve put Putin through. The massacres, rape, and kidnapping will only possibly be dwarfed by the number of men that are forcibly conscripted and forced to fight nato on behalf of Russia. The “needless slaughter” will get WORSE and much more likely to directly involve Americans. 

    I already said I disagree with the position. I merely said it has merit. It has been clear from the beginning the Putin is evil, I need not expound on that.

    Please show me, in simple steps, how Ukraine can win the war. They are currently engaged in a war of attrition with a much larger, much more populous country. Attrition is a battle of resources, and Ukraine is at or near its limit, with its chief constraint being fighting men. Currently, the AVERAGE ago of a front line fighter is 43 years old. They've lost almost half their population since the war started. They have been losing territory for the last 18 months.

    Please show me your plan for Ukraine to defeat the much larger Russian war machine. I'd love to see it. And then please share it with the Pentagon, they seem to lack your highly attuned tactical military expertise.

  9. 1 hour ago, immamac said:

    The reason I’m a bit ornery about some of these posts is I’m trying to be transparent and give relevant updates to the community and some individuals legitimately cannot handle transparency and want to make it about me. The posts aren’t about me or anything that is going on with me. It’s about the community and the health of the programs that it sponsors.

    I wasn't making it about you.

    I would also like add, if you aren't getting shot at, you aren't in the fight. 

  10. I disagree with the Republican stance, but the argument that "Ukraine can't win and extending the war is resulting in needless slaughter" is not without merit. 

    However, some of you people have been listening the QAnon a little too much. Your conspiracy theories and both insane and posted to the wrong forum. 

    • Fuck You 5
  11. On 4/9/2024 at 7:32 AM, EastHorn said:

    I agree. Denver Post had best Colorado high school football players. Few are athletic enough to play big time high school ball.  However there are some linemen getting looks and none committed to CU. You would think you lock down Cherry Creek if you are the CU coach. 

    I am not sure CU is at the level of "locking down" anything. Maybe just target a winning record first.

  12. 21 hours ago, crash_davis said:

    China deserves all the shit they get. But one thing is for sure, China mass manufacturing keeps prices low, except when asshole corporations inflate the fuck out of prices because some assholes need their $40M annual bonus. I've never purchased anything from Temu. I see their ads all over the net, especially on Instagram. I've perused the site every now and then. They offer fantastically cheap prices for shit that most people don't need but will buy just because it's so cheap. Hence this article...

    https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/temu-victims-parents-kids-bargain-shopping-ca25ef93?st=tmpfgz0vuohmywu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    LaTonya Mullins-Mobley was surfing the web for Arizona Cardinals gear when she stumbled across an ad for Temu, the Chinese online-marketplace app known for ultra-discounts. She couldn’t believe the low prices.

    These days, Mullins-Mobley, who is 53 and works for a cellphone carrier, jokes that she’s “having an affair” with the app. She buys clothing, including T-shirts with Bible quotes for her daughter. She started a sunglasses company, picking up pairs from Temu for $3 and selling them for around $15.

    Her 19-year-old-daughter, Angeline Mobley, isn’t impressed. 

    Angeline recently made a TikTok in which she begged viewers to take the Temu app away from her mother, actually, any mother, “expeditiously. ASAP. Stat.” She hit a chord. “My mom bought 57 of the same spatulas bc they were .03,” one commenter commiserated. 

     

    The app is a particular hit with older shoppers—a development that is spawning a new genre of family friction. Gen Z’ers are roasting their moms, dads, grandmothers and uncles as “Temu victims,” saying they are buying cheap and sometimes useless stuff from the site.

    In March, Temu’s fastest-growing demographic was the 55 to 64 set. Sales attributed to that age group grew 271% since last March, according to Earnest Analytics. Temu is expected to spend nearly $3 billion on advertising this year, according to JPMorgan.

     

    As in most bargain shopping, Temu regulars say part of the appeal is stumbling across items they—or anyone—could probably do just fine without.

    “You’ve lived your life without that pasta spoon rest, but then you see it and you’re like, ‘Wow, that’s genius and it’s only 98 cents, and it’s cute,’ so you need it,” says Chaunda Thompson, a 44-year-old marine shipyard painter in Newport News, Va.

    Have you ever had a $40 million bonus? It's pretty awesome.

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  13. 1. Israel recently opened two new ports of entry for humanitarian aid. Obviously there was no strategic decision to starve 2 million Gazans. Anyone claiming this is experiencing hallucinations.

    2. If you live in southern Israel, you are required to have a bomb shelter in your building. When Hamas launches missiles (toward civilian populations), an alert is sounded and you have 30 seconds to get to you and your loved ones into the shelter. This has been going on for decades. 

    Most people probably remember the scene is Zero Dark Thirty where the CIA is meeting with an informant at a base in Afghanistan. For five miles in every direction around the base, there is nothing but desert. This is called "standoff". It is a safety perimeter that secures the lives of the people living on the base.

    What Israel requires is a safety perimeter for its civilian population so that they are not constantly being bombarded with missiles. I see no reason anyone should be subject to a small but constant stream of missile attacks as a permanent condition of existing. Frankly this should never have been acceptable.  This went on for decades prior to the war, so these missiles were mostly sourced in Iran and brought in via tunnels built from construction materials Israel allowed into Gaza.

    Gaza was an open air prison prior to the war. Given what Hamas did, I can't think it's going to be anything but far worse in Gaza than it was before. I don't think Israel will let in much more than some food and medicine, certainly not construction materials which will allow for the creation of tunnels and rearming of Hamas. As far as Israel continuing to provide electricity to the Strip, I am also skeptical.  Possibly some water. Support for the Gazans from Israel will be extremely limited. The Gazans are going to live in conditions I wouldn't wish on anyone, with no prospect of ever having decent lives and the constant threat of being killed.

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  14. With Sabermetrics you could see that the traditional stats had underlying limitations, and Sabermetrics obviously improved on that. The stats above look like somebody went to a lot of effort. But I NEVER find that stuff convincing. I like the PFF grading but have no way to evaluate its accuracy.

    Still, CJ averaged 4.8 per carry, and Blue averaged 6.1 CJ averaged 6.5 per reception, Blue 9.6. So he looks like a slightly better runner and a better receiver than CJ. But who knows. Play them both. Ipso facto, res ispa loquitor, veni vidi vici, fortis fortuna adiuvat we're gonna kick ass.

     

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  15. So most people here outside of Lenny understand that an individual data point is not information. I am interested in the signal not the noise.

    Efficient market theory says you can't time the market. Mostly true, but you can be a little smarter. You can see trends. So for example, I think this is four in a row that came in above expectations. Of course my thesis is that this is driven by money printing. Said money printing has started to move up at a rate that is totally out of control. We've reached the steep part of the curve.  Jamie Dimon discussed this recently: 

    Quote

    It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also a growing need for increased spending as we continue transitioning to a greener economy, restructuring global supply chains, boosting military expenditure and battling rising healthcare costs. This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect. Furthermore, there are downside risks to watch.

    Every asset class is going to be affected. We've mostly got over the idiots saying "it can't happen here", so it's a much more rational discussion. Almost certainly the disaster hits within five years, possibly sooner. It really depends on when we go into recession. Deficits >12% during economic expansion are unheard of in our history. The government is borrowing almost 50% of what it is spending NOW, before the recession. Financial repression is a thing, everyone will sell their bonds and get out of the dollar when they realize what we've done.

    What Raoul Pal said about "we are all debt slaves" was really powerful. Pal's Bitcoin argument has some holes, for example I am not seeing a flood of money into BTC today, but regardless, I am positioning the portfolio to benefit from the inevitable. It seems like the money printing is finally driving prices up.  I mean, I was a decade early and all, but here we are. It's not an argument I wanted to win. 

    I blame mostly the 535 ladies and gentlemen of Congress. I hope they all get uncurable leprosy.

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  16. 5 hours ago, Captainant said:

    I'm pretty used to being called dumb, but that's usually followed by something of actual substance rather than consistent personal attacks. You don't even engage with the argument I'm making and just call me a retard or shizo or doorknob licker. @immamac has always been pretty consistent with "no personal attacks" as a site rule so I'm just doing what he's asked and reporting instead of responding in kind. 

    a

    You're too dumb engage with but you are a unique kind of message board hemlock. At least you understand you are highly regarded, that's about all one can expect.

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  17. 5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

    CPI and PPI out Wednesday and Thursday. Overreactions will happen to CPI. 

    Jerome’s favorite FED report of PCE is at end of month and will be overlooked as usual but be the most telling of his future plans.

    Bernorange will post some zero hedge/drudge links from firms nobody knows from fund managers nobody has heard of.

    I’ll remind you all of egg prices now that Texas has got hit with avian flu. Chocolate bars will be more expensive and the fatties will expose themselves.

    I don't speak for others, but I reject nihilism. Can't say for sure that's what you are selling.

  18. On 4/6/2024 at 3:21 AM, bullet said:

    Yeah.  When I was growing up someone who sucker punched was a total pussy and coward.  I lived in Vince's neighborhood, long before Vince.  Our Junior High was rated one of the 10 most dangerous school in the nation.  And the only junior high on the list.  We were a little overrated--but there were lots of fights and they were always fair fights.  And when somebody lost, it was over.  They didn't bang their head into the concrete.  Nobody used weapons.  They didn't gang up 2 on 1.   Only pieces of shit like the sucker punch guy would do that.

    Dick Dowling middle School?

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