May Core inflation 2.4% YoY but only 0.1% MoM. No sign of tariff inflation at all.
May US PPI MoM 0.1%, also showing no signs of tariff inflation.
Initial jobless claims steady at 248k.
Nonfarm payrolls at 139k. Very weak for this size economy, and obviously there were downward revisions of prior reports as there always are. So the real number is probably a lot lower than 139k.
May Empire State manufacturing index was -16. Completely terrible, but it's NY it doesn't really matter.
May Retail sales -0.9%. I talked with Martha Stewart, that's not a good thing.
The household employment survey showed a loss of 700k jobs, but this indicator isn't considered reliable in the short term.
Housing starts down to 1.26 million from 1.36 million. Both terrible objectively, and well below consensus.
Initial jobless claims this week still steady at 245k, but there was a holiday so who knows really. Continuing jobless claims however surprised to the upside.
Leading economic indicators came in yesterday at -0.1%. From the Conference Board:
Basically, if you were hoping for inflation, you are likely to be disappointed. Tariff-flation isn't showing up. But good news if you hate Trump, this is because the economy is decelerating and appears to be headed towards (probably mild) recession, barring any animal spirits.