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Thetexashammer

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Thetexashammer

  1. I am trying to eat more fiber.
  2. Oil is down $0.65 and the stock market is up. Nobody with money on the line is in any way impressed by the anticipated Iranian response.
  3. Please provide some evidence of this.
  4. Interesting story here about 20,000 child martyrs.
  5. Or imagine that the president had no idea what was going on due to his dementia. You knew this was coming if you followed the Pentagon Pizza Tracker LOL.
  6. Iran's most likely course of action is an asymmetric attack on soft American targets, not military action. It is highly unlikely they will simply not respond. This isn't the off ramp.
  7. If you were to purchase a box of hammers, it is unlikely they would cost substantially more than last year. At least that is what the data shows.
  8. It's not like they were keeping it a big secret.
  9. {Powell said he expects to see tariff related inflation in the coming months. Not off several years in the future. It's not like the quotes were hard to find, or he was vague in his word choice.
  10. So you think that Jay Powell is wrong? Do you have some justification for disagreeing with mainstream economics?
  11. The question comes down to whether or not you are willing to let them have a nuclear bomb. Iran is the leading worldwide sponsor of terror attacks. They were the leading proponent of the Oct 7 attack, of the Houthis and their attacks on commercial trade, and of Hezbollah. They openly celebrate the rape and killing of women and the murder of (Christian or Jewish) children. They've been this way for decades. It is informative to consider the words of Khamenei from one month ago, prior to the current war. The point is, these aren't just emotional utterances but rather are fundamental values of the regime. There is fundamentally no reason to enrich uranium. These fools are sitting on top of vast oceans of hydrocarbons. It's a nuclear program with one purpose. For this reason, literally nobody is coming to their rescue. There was no commercial reason to bury their uranium enrichment 300 feet deep outside of anticipating the air campaign. Nobody wants a nuclear arms race in the middle east. Iran has no friends, not even China. But air campaigns are not effective at regime change. So it's a conundrum, if you believe that they cannot have a nuclear weapon, which Trump has stated over and over again. Where is the off ramp? Do we have to use tactical nukes on Fordo? What do we do in six months if there is no regime change? I do think the odds of an actual ground invasion are basically zero. I think if Iran tries to close the Straits, they will unite the world against them and actually get the regime change that is so unlikely as of now. I think maybe 60% our attack will come this weekend.
  12. May Core inflation 2.4% YoY but only 0.1% MoM. No sign of tariff inflation at all. May US PPI MoM 0.1%, also showing no signs of tariff inflation. Initial jobless claims steady at 248k. Nonfarm payrolls at 139k. Very weak for this size economy, and obviously there were downward revisions of prior reports as there always are. So the real number is probably a lot lower than 139k. May Empire State manufacturing index was -16. Completely terrible, but it's NY it doesn't really matter. May Retail sales -0.9%. I talked with Martha Stewart, that's not a good thing. The household employment survey showed a loss of 700k jobs, but this indicator isn't considered reliable in the short term. Housing starts down to 1.26 million from 1.36 million. Both terrible objectively, and well below consensus. Initial jobless claims this week still steady at 245k, but there was a holiday so who knows really. Continuing jobless claims however surprised to the upside. Leading economic indicators came in yesterday at -0.1%. From the Conference Board: Basically, if you were hoping for inflation, you are likely to be disappointed. Tariff-flation isn't showing up. But good news if you hate Trump, this is because the economy is decelerating and appears to be headed towards (probably mild) recession, barring any animal spirits.
  13. That was some of the most insane racing I've ever seen.
  14. The people are great. The government not so much.
  15. What was actually going on was that YouTube was pushing to create TV on the internet, pushing corporate content like CNN and MSNBC, and those videos were all getting disliked intensely. If you have the app, you can still see it. Never click on those videos, you will get spammed with MSNBC or FOX videos for all eternity. In summary, YouTube sucks dicks and is run by women and emotion rather than logic and facts.
  16. I immediately got the app to add back the dislikes. And the worst decision they made was taking an extreme social marxist political position and engaging in censorship. They destroyed their own platform thinking they had an impenetrable monopoly.
  17. We are going vertical with the debt now. Printer goes brrrrrrr.
  18. A few weeks ago the OCC, which regulates banks, pushed out a new order enabling commercial banks to custody and buy/sell cryptos to customers. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2025/nr-occ-2025-42.html You are going to start seeing, when you open up your bank account, Checking, USD Savings, and Bitcoin/Tether accounts all listed together. The stablecoin bill, which is about to pass, is a serious problem for banks, because most banks are holding onto your cash and paying 0% interest, and for Visa/Mastercard who need their 2.5%. And when you have the option to save in a currency that doesn't depreciate to Bolivia and they're oh by the way they're not making more of it, you will do that too. Money printer going brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
  19. Rate down go. know not yet. printer go brrrrrrrrr. No stop train.
  20. You are literally so braindead that you have no idea that you actually just made the strongest possible argument for bitcoin and against the US dollar LOL.
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