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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. Could you imagine the level of violence in the heavily armed "annexed" areas if we just set a date and said the side with the most surviving voters wins. It'd be worse than a typical civil war. It'd be closer to ethnic cleansing.
  2. 1. What would he have said if it the Russians didn't do it? 2. If that's the "single best indicator" you have, then you don't have shit. Edit to add: I think our main disagreement is whether Russia thinks there would ever be a future in shipping gas to Europe. I think they are planning on things eventually returning to some form of normal. You think...I'm not sure what...that they are engaged in some sort of apocalyptic battle that precludes ever shipping gas again(?). Maybe you could explain what you think Putin believe the next 25 years will entail, assuming defeat Ukraine for the annexed provinces.
  3. Really. You honestly believe that "no one else had anything to gain" ? Not Ukraine? Not Poland? Not the US? Nothing to gain in damaging a pipeline those three parties have pushed against for years? You honestly believe that? I mean, the valves were shut, so that alleviated everyone's concerns moving forward, right? I know that when the war drums are beating no one wants anyone to dissent. But, that's also the time when propaganda gets spun up the most. Currently the belief is that Russia blew up a pipeline it spent years lobbying for and constructing, and your evidence is "but Putin said Anglo-Saxons!" Would he have said something different if he didn't blow it up? Tell me, do you think people should have questioned the logic for invading Iraq a little more? Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator who lied a bunch. It would have been unpatriotic to question our reasoning against his lies. Right? I'm not even questioning a US position here, just rampant speculation from the internet. And you think that's too far.
  4. It's definitely easier to make an argument when you can just change what people say and then say "OMG, look what he said!" You brought up the speech and claimed it validated your argument. It doesn't. And FWIW, there isn't a disagreement about any of your edits, unless they are meant to mean that Russian will not ship gas again regardless of what happens with Ukraine or sanctions. I think everyone accepts that Russia is using energy exports as a weapon. What you have failed to explain is why he would he would spend any effort to blow up a pipeline he mostly owns. For propaganda? Ok, I think it's pretty thin. If you believe it, cool, but I think you are stretching way too far to make it compelling.
  5. Zeus, you left out Texan LNG folks. I mean, I don't believe it, but they do have a financial interest and I am amused by the vision of some Slim Pickens character getting suited up to blow up a Rooskie pipeline.
  6. I think everyone on this thread understands that currently the pipelines were not being utilized because of political reasons. I think most people who understand basic economics understand that the demand for Russian gas (or gas in general) is not a fixed number. The worse the infrastructure for delivering it, the higher the price, the lower the usage. The speech that got delivered Friday set the Russian criteria for peace, that Kiev accepts the annexation of part of their country. That's not going to happen, but that was the speech. The speech also talked about how people can't heat their homes with greenbacks. It also claimed that European leaders were betraying their people by trying to get off Russian gas, essentially driving them to de-industrialization. So, yeah, the speech on Friday projected a vision that Russia gets the annexed provinces and then returns to supplying gas to Europe for political leverage and economic gain. The millennia thing was discussing the history, importance, blah, blah, blah of the Russian people. The Satanism thing was about the Western acceptance of gay and trans people. Link to the Kremlin transcript
  7. For fucks sake, you can post all the fucking financial times articles you want, the reality is that a pipeline that connects a gas producing nation with a gas consuming nation 100s of miles away is a valuable asset. It may not have the value it cost to construct it, but after it was constructed, it has value. Everything else is just handwaving bullshit. And it's not like it was just Gazprom. I get it. You think it was the Russians blowing up their own shit. Maybe they did. But use more logical supporting evidence.
  8. It wasn’t a money making enterprise because it cost money to build. After that money was sunk (no pun intended), it would make money. I don’t know who bombed it, but let’s not build an argument on silly logic. Gazprom had already exhausted its cash on it. I would be curious if there were any contractual shit that would kick in - insurance, force majeure relief, etc. that wouldn’t happen by just sitting idle.
  9. The general theory is that gas market volatility is the main weapon Russia has in discouraging the Europeans from supporting the war. The more people need to pay to heat their homes, the less likely they are to support continue sanctions, or, more generally, the less likely they are to re-elect their current leaders who made these decisions. Throwing a WTF into the markets adds to the volatility. The timing also roughly coincided with the opening of the Baltic Pipe, connecting Norway gas to Poland. Maybe this was a veiled threat to demonstrate the vulnerability of that line. It's also conceivable that Putin was getting internal pressure to yield to the West's demands to reopen the pipeline. Blowing it up is a bit like "burning the boats." Still, I am not convinced. The Nordstream 2 has been part of Russian foreign policy for a while. This is from Wiki, quoting a banking team's review of the deal: To have the Russians damage it, and in turn damage any interest in investing in it, seems like an extremely desperate move for minor gains. But so is wide=spread conscription, so who knows. My guess is that it is not that complicated to blow shit up. It doesn't take a superpower to do it. The country that would have the biggest reward/risk ratio would probably be Poland. They've opposed the pipeline for a long time and on national security issues. And, if they get caught, so what? Ukraine maybe has more motivation, but they would be crippled if they did something that pissed off the West. Latvia, Estonia would have motivations similar to Poland. But, it may also not be a country at all. It may just be people with the right tools and expertise who had their own reasons - political or profit. I really doubt it was the US. There is zero reason to get desperate at this point. Russia is losing and there is no reason to throw in plot twists.
  10. Nothing would get those conscription efforts running smoothly like the news of a couple thousand Russian soldiers killed or captured in the next few days.
  11. Sean Lock (RIP) had some thoughts prior to the vote. Worth picking up at the 2:15 mark.
  12. Fair enough. It would be interesting if he would hold the stance if he's the tie-breaker, or if he could negotiate a different R leader if he was a tie-breaker.
  13. Would it really have profound effects on the control of the Senate? I assume Lee would caucus with the Republicans in determining Senate leadership. Maybe he flip if they were pushing some Trumpkin dipshit, but I assume he would vote McConnell over Schumer. It's not like they just count up the Ds and Rs behind the names. Note: this is out of the Federalist. It's a fundraising article for Lee.
  14. It’s not really worth entertaining that his Sergeant liked him despite the DUI. He had to lie about his service because he is the kind of person who would lie about his service. That is a character defect that doesn’t mix well with authority. Or teamwork. E2. Can’t reenlist. Yeah, I don’t think he had too many bosses looking to go out of their way to protect him.
  15. The more I think about it, the more I think Trump should take it upon himself to fly to Kiev to meet with Zelensky and perhaps the mayor of Kiev. It might be the first time a former American President is publicly executed by an ally, but that's a risk I am willing to take. Give peace a chance is my motto. Go save the world Donny John, no matter the consequences. We will be right behind you, pointing and laughing.
  16. "I will head up group???" Um, since you asked, no, you will not head up group.
  17. Seems like she is not very good at being a judge. Politics and appointments aside, she’s just not very detail oriented.
  18. It seems stupid on their part, but they’ve been doing a lot of stupid shit lately, so who knows.
  19. NS2 is an interesting topic and it’s an interesting development if someone sabotaged it. But, I will still maintain that blaming Biden for threatening NS2 is fucking stupid. It’s was a project wrought with political baggage from the start and was an obvious target. Any President who didn’t threaten it should be impeached for criminal incompetence. It’s pretty obvious it’s just an excuse to throw shit Biden’s way. Biden deserves credit for using diplomacy for shutting it down. If it was sabotaged, Ukraine would be an obvious suspect. Could be militant environmentalists. Could be the US, but one of the most important aspects of sanctions is the ability to lift them. You don’t really want to melt your bargaining chips.
  20. It takes a special kind of idiot to blame Biden for threatening NS2. And, yeah, Biden was able to stop it without some James Bond plot. Let’s go Brandon.
  21. I bought it several months ago, but I couldn’t muster the willpower to start it until recently. Still have to take it in small portions. Bush at War was a great read and gave me a much clearer understanding of the start of the war in Afghanistan than what I could get from the news.
  22. It seems pretty chilly in Latvia these days:
  23. Maybe he was part of a top secret research program in how to load planes. The Taliban will never suspect the secret is to lift with your ankles.
  24. From an article posted upthread:
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