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bullzak

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Posts posted by bullzak

  1. They fell in love with the World Series core until they didnt have much trade value. Now they have a lot of nothing at least at the major league level. Probably no one on that roster who will be part of the next playoff team. 

    I hear good things about the minors but who knows. 

    For most of their history the Cubs have sucked and Wrigley was the worlds biggest outdoor beer garden. Look at it that way and party. Game is incidental this season. 

  2. 2 hours ago, Blotto said:

    speculative investing will probably be out of favor for a short while, but with as fast as technology evolves, there will always be new shiny technologies with the POTENTIAL for 10X, 100X gains that people wont be able to resist. the dot com crash was just more than 20 years ago, but there were no lessons learned and people were piling heaps of money into massively overvalued stocks because its was different this time. We're greedy by nature, and it will all happen again. The market will reset/stabilize at somepoint,  everyone will lick their wounds, and the cycle will start anew. 

    Been at this for a while and I never thought I would hear all the hot air I heard in the late 90s before the Dot Com bust. Yet there was Cathie Wood and her ilk telling me valuation doesnt matter blah blah blah. Dont even get me started on crypto, NFT, all that bullshit. I dont know if a sucker is born every minute but there is one born about every 25 years at least. 

    Had a real estate guy tell me in about 1985 while Texas was grinding through a really bad time that a "recession is when the money goes back to its rightful owners." Looks like we are seeing a bit of that although we have a LOOONG way to go before you are in 2000 or 2009 times. 

    I dont think it gets that bad but OTOH analysts are still calling for SPX earnings of +9%. Yeah, no. 

  3. 20 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released?

    Probably just some hedging getting caught offsides. Going to be a few days before we really know how the market takes this. 

    Stock market that is. 

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  4. 2 hours ago, Not a cat said:

    I'd think the fed decision is going to dominate today but can't figure out if 75 points will be good because we're finally doing something to fight inflation or bad because it's 75 bps.  

    Probably good. 

    Then bad. 

    If they chicken out and only do 50 look out. Dont think that happens though with other Fed people jawboning 75 all week. 

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  5. Just saw a Goldman note that they now expect back to back 75 bps raises from Fed. If I recall the Fed hasnt raised 75 bps since 1994. 

    I think you can forget about the soft landing scenario. Fed is scared of deflation, but inflation is a battle they know how to fight. It just isnt going to be very much fun. 

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  6. Just took the kids to DC couple months ago. Been several times and its truly an awesome and beautiful city. 

    As for the current state of things: Air and Space is under major renovation. Maybe 10% of their stuff is on display. As painful as it may be I would skip it this time and go out to Dulles where a lot of AS stuff is on display. 

    American History was a huge bummer. Maybe its post Covid but they didnt have anything out. Dorothys slippers from Wizard of Oz took up a huge room. Lots of current politically based exhibits but if you want any artifacts from Revolutionary War or Civil War youre pretty much out of luck. Bunch of stuff about voting and citizenship. Yawn. 

    Went to see the Hope Diamond. Very cool but they havent done anything with the gem collection in decades. You can even see dust on the inside of the exhibits. 

    Smithsonian castle has a pretty cool futures exhibit thats worth a look. 

    Engraving is closed for renovation. 

    I think if you get to your Congressman you can see FBI. That used to be cool but havent been in a long time. 

    Library of Congress is gorgeous. I wouldnt spend a day on it but its worth an hour. 

    We took a private tour of the monuments which I would recommend. Get some history and they take you to each one. Walking that would be exhausting if its hot, and it will be. 

    Went to some restaurants in the Union Market area NE where I wouldnt have gone at gunpoint 20 years ago and it was awesome. That joint was rocking. Maybe check that out. 

    Bring your walking shoes. 

     

  7. If you end up with two watered down tours I will just watch less golf. Pretty easy for me. I dont watch minor league baseball or small college basketball either.

    So far Bryson is the only really elite current player but he's a weapons grade douchebag so not sure there is a real loss there. 

    Its all a big PR ploy by the Saudis but its a loser unless one of those guys up and wins a major. Bryson is probably only current threat to do that but not going to happen this year. 

    I think the best they can hope for is Champions Tour level of interest. Meh. 

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  8. This just feels like the USFL with better funding. Nobody in that field is a threat to win a major in the next three years other than DJ, but he hasnt been sharp since winning the Masters. 

    You get 5 guys from top 30 in world rankings to walk then maybe you have something. 

    Either way it kinda sucks because I want to see the best and deepest fields and this will water things down some. 

  9. Welch couldn't get away with all the accounting nonsense now. Beating estimates by a penny every quarter through cookie jar accounting, etc. That paved the way for present recognition of prospective future earnings [Enron].

    But no discussion of this is complete without all the greenmail incidents of the early 80's all in the name of shareholder value. Destroyed a lot of companies. Maybe they needed to be put down but that search for efficiencies or as our McKinsey friends [fuck them] call it "synergies" has exacerbated a lot of problems. 

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  10. 2 hours ago, Chopper said:

    I don't know how you got through all 13 episodes. Must've been painful.

    It was the Bataan death march of television. Should have been 4 one hour episodes, tops. Despite all the shenanigans I didn't see anything that changed my mind either. In the end it was a self serving crap honestly. 

  11. 14 hours ago, Player said:

    The Staircase is really good so far. Anyone else watching?

    We just got through slogging through the 13 episodes on the Netflix documentary and I was kinda underwhelmed. Patterson is such an unlikable douchebag. 

    Should I do the MAX version or nah?

  12. 3 hours ago, Js1 said:

    There hasn’t been a stimulus check in like 15 months.

    Maybe. Point stands that there are a lot of people who think they are special/smart because our government injected trillions of dollars into the economy with almost no strings attached. Now inflation is going to take that back plus some. Nobody who wasn't working in 1982 even knows what that's like. I do and it fucking sucks if you're on the wrong side of it. 

    It wont hurt capital all that much unless they are levered out the ass, but the labor market could be in for a rough time. I hope it doesn't happen but you get a real recession early 80s style and some people are going to get punched in the mouth. Been there. 

    Just like I keep hearing there are these young Wall St hotshots who are ready for a bond bear market. Reading about it in some textbook aint the same as living through it. 

    Anyway as to the subject at hand you should be looking for this guys replacement. He's a loser so give him two in the back of the head. Never feel a thing. 

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  13. 1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

    Makes sense.  Sure.  
    The pioneer of mass produced electric cars, is no longer on the Environmental, Social, and Governance. index

    Would be interesting to see the list of lame companies tangentially related to ESG that are on that list. I think its just another acronym-based investment scam that probably won't be worthwhile. 

    Story stocks get annihilated in bear markets, if that weren't being made obvious as of late. 

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  14. I love how people are all "TWTR will sue Elon." Like he gives a shit. 

    Real commercial litigation against deep pockets defendants lasts years. If they sue him the end result will be in some conference room mediation many years from now for pennies on the dollar. 

    People would be shocked if they knew how many corp litigation people have never had a jury trial. 

    As for TWTR, if you sue, you are open to discovery on the bot and censorship question. Not really sure they want anyone to see how that sausage gets made. I would bet the bot number as WAY north of 5%

    At any rate, I for one am entertained. 

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