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bullzak

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Posts posted by bullzak

  1. WWI was such a ridiculous slaughter. I have read that 1/3 of French men 18-25 died in that war. Wiped out a whole generation. 

    At the Somme the British had 60,000 casualties the first day. 

    Battle for Passchendaele is believed to have caused 500,000 casualties total and moved the line a few hundred yards before giving it all up. Horrific indifference to human life. And all it accomplished was to set the stage for the next one 20 years later. 

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  2. Seems like the biggest issue here relative to normal civil litigation is Delaware Chancery. I haven't paid that much attention but if they have a rocket docket and can get to finality much faster than you can in regular court, Musks leverage erodes in a hurry, aside from all the legal arguments. 

    I am tangentially involved in Tribune Bankruptcy that is finally on life support after 12 years and having only gotten into procedural maneuvering with no discovery etc. Last count a few years ago the legal bills were a quarter of a billion. 

    On paper he is screwed. His only real leverage is the financial torture of long term grinding litigation but that may not be in play here. Surely Skadden advised him of that and he ignored them. 

  3. 4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

    edit to add - i just actually went and read a bunch of the reviews (from both critics and normal people).  the most common thing from critics was, "why waste time on this when you could just be watching the godfather?"  the most common phrase from normies was "the critics got this wrong, this show is great."

    IMO the making of the greatest movie of all time is just as fascinating as the movie. There were so many obstacles to Coppolas vision its amazing this thing ever saw the screen. 

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  4. They fell in love with the World Series core until they didnt have much trade value. Now they have a lot of nothing at least at the major league level. Probably no one on that roster who will be part of the next playoff team. 

    I hear good things about the minors but who knows. 

    For most of their history the Cubs have sucked and Wrigley was the worlds biggest outdoor beer garden. Look at it that way and party. Game is incidental this season. 

  5. 2 hours ago, Blotto said:

    speculative investing will probably be out of favor for a short while, but with as fast as technology evolves, there will always be new shiny technologies with the POTENTIAL for 10X, 100X gains that people wont be able to resist. the dot com crash was just more than 20 years ago, but there were no lessons learned and people were piling heaps of money into massively overvalued stocks because its was different this time. We're greedy by nature, and it will all happen again. The market will reset/stabilize at somepoint,  everyone will lick their wounds, and the cycle will start anew. 

    Been at this for a while and I never thought I would hear all the hot air I heard in the late 90s before the Dot Com bust. Yet there was Cathie Wood and her ilk telling me valuation doesnt matter blah blah blah. Dont even get me started on crypto, NFT, all that bullshit. I dont know if a sucker is born every minute but there is one born about every 25 years at least. 

    Had a real estate guy tell me in about 1985 while Texas was grinding through a really bad time that a "recession is when the money goes back to its rightful owners." Looks like we are seeing a bit of that although we have a LOOONG way to go before you are in 2000 or 2009 times. 

    I dont think it gets that bad but OTOH analysts are still calling for SPX earnings of +9%. Yeah, no. 

  6. 20 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released?

    Probably just some hedging getting caught offsides. Going to be a few days before we really know how the market takes this. 

    Stock market that is. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. 2 hours ago, Not a cat said:

    I'd think the fed decision is going to dominate today but can't figure out if 75 points will be good because we're finally doing something to fight inflation or bad because it's 75 bps.  

    Probably good. 

    Then bad. 

    If they chicken out and only do 50 look out. Dont think that happens though with other Fed people jawboning 75 all week. 

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  8. Just saw a Goldman note that they now expect back to back 75 bps raises from Fed. If I recall the Fed hasnt raised 75 bps since 1994. 

    I think you can forget about the soft landing scenario. Fed is scared of deflation, but inflation is a battle they know how to fight. It just isnt going to be very much fun. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. Just took the kids to DC couple months ago. Been several times and its truly an awesome and beautiful city. 

    As for the current state of things: Air and Space is under major renovation. Maybe 10% of their stuff is on display. As painful as it may be I would skip it this time and go out to Dulles where a lot of AS stuff is on display. 

    American History was a huge bummer. Maybe its post Covid but they didnt have anything out. Dorothys slippers from Wizard of Oz took up a huge room. Lots of current politically based exhibits but if you want any artifacts from Revolutionary War or Civil War youre pretty much out of luck. Bunch of stuff about voting and citizenship. Yawn. 

    Went to see the Hope Diamond. Very cool but they havent done anything with the gem collection in decades. You can even see dust on the inside of the exhibits. 

    Smithsonian castle has a pretty cool futures exhibit thats worth a look. 

    Engraving is closed for renovation. 

    I think if you get to your Congressman you can see FBI. That used to be cool but havent been in a long time. 

    Library of Congress is gorgeous. I wouldnt spend a day on it but its worth an hour. 

    We took a private tour of the monuments which I would recommend. Get some history and they take you to each one. Walking that would be exhausting if its hot, and it will be. 

    Went to some restaurants in the Union Market area NE where I wouldnt have gone at gunpoint 20 years ago and it was awesome. That joint was rocking. Maybe check that out. 

    Bring your walking shoes. 

     

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