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Texas Jeff

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  1. We have zero income tax and lower housing costs and better traffic than the Bay Area. Bay Area execs think that the Austin vibe is similar to the Bay Area vibe, but cheaper. Austin employees can get to their tech jobs at 9am, which is 7am on the west coast, and work two hours before the Bay Area arrives for work. However, this does not stop Bay Area employees from scheduling meetings at 4pm their time, which means 6pm our time. Home by 7:30, maybe. Companies pay less and can stretch out their employees' days.
  2. From that article: “This new federal purchase can give Americans even more confidence that we will have enough supply to vaccinate every American who wants it by June 2021,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said. So, maybe June at the latest even for young folks in good heath. I'll take it. This school year is trashed but at least everyone will have a chance to get the vax prior to the next school year.
  3. They could split regionally based on how many 6A schools are in each large area. Austin, for example, has two 6A districts. Put the upper eight teams in one division and the lower eight in another division and you get this: "Big 6A" Austin-area schools (with enrollment): Round Rock (3714) Lake Travis (3401) Del Valle (3337) Cedar Ridge (2874) Westwood (2858) Bowie (2848) Westlake (2833) Stony Pt (2789) "Small 6A" Austin-area schools: Akins (2770) Vandegrift (2761) McNeil (2753) Vista Ridge (2492) Austin High (2359) Hays (2351) San Marcos (2309) Hutto (2247)
  4. Yeah, I'm not even sure that the vaccine is approved for pregnant women under the emergency use authorization.
  5. Phase 1B definitions for Texas are out. Phase 1B may start "in the coming weeks", but no specific date yet: https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/immunize/vaccine/EVAP-Phase1B.pdf Ages 65 and over, you're in... Ages 16-64 can get a shot if you have one of these: Cancer Chronic kidney disease COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) Heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease or cardiomyopathies Solid organ transplantation Obesity and severe obesity (body mass index of 30 kg/m2 or higher) Pregnancy Sickle cell disease Type 2 diabetes mellitus There is some vague language in the definition that could be interpreted several ways, but that's the basic idea. About 70% of the deaths so far have been in the 65 and older group, so we may not see cases drop as fast from this allocation but we should see deaths significantly drop. I would think this will also lower the burden on hospitals faster, but younger groups will still be passing it around.
  6. Thanks for posting that drawing, it helps to see it... Why are two-way bike lanes needed on both sides of the street? That seems like overkill, esp with Lee Barton and Josephine parallel to Lamar. Anyone biking north on the Zach side of the street is going to have to cross over anyway to continue north across the Pfluger bridge. The people riding against traffic, closest to traffic, will be a lot less safe than their counterparts across the street. Also, any P. Terry's in town should be required to have a 50 car queue for the drive in that does not block traffic on a major street. I see five cars in line on that drawing. That rightmost southbound lane on Lamar is going to be P.Terry's parking from 11-1.
  7. Texas is doing a pretty good job on this, at the dashboard previously linked. You can click on any county in Texas and it will give you the stats just for that county, or click on nothing and get the stats for Texas as a whole. Since the vaccine is being distributed almost per-capita to the states, I would expect the the numbers for any state are about the same. The only variable is how many people choose to get vaccinated. The data for vaccine distribution is pretty new. I expect that some of the national aggregators will eventually include that in their websites. I like to follow Covid Act Now, which shows how things are in each state and county. They don't have vaccine data now but I bet they will include that in the future. It will be pretty cool to see the colors start to change on the national map as the number of vaccinations reaches critical mass.
  8. I just realized that list does not include about 125,000 Pfizer first shot doses headed to long term care facilities. Hang in there Grandma, help is on the way!
  9. Texas has allocated vaccine for week two, adding Moderna to the mix: https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week2.pdf The Pfizer vaccine is going almost exclusively to hospitals and the Moderna vaccine is being split up all across Texas at mostly local providers. It is great that they are getting it to so many places but I wonder how they are going to coordinate the vaccine phases with most sites having such small quantitates. This seems like a week where a lot of pharmacies and clinics are going to get their first few shots and learn how to distribute the vaccine. Travis Co is getting 16600 Moderna and 2900 Pfizer doses, compared with about 13600 Pfizer last week. At this pace, by the end of the year around 5% of residents will have had a first shot and more people will have had a first shot than have tested positive for COVID. Travis Co needs to receive 40,000 first shot doses per week to get it to everyone over 16 in the first six months of the year. This is a good start; hopefully the allocation rate can continue to climb over the coming weeks.
  10. Hopefully the data is just lagging reality. Some unfortunate people have to enter data into a tracking system for each dose given. Texas allocated 224,500 doses to providers during week one. So the number of delivered doses should come up to that value pretty soon, and the number of vaccinated should rise to about that number a few days later. If it does not, something's broken or people aren't getting vaccinated.
  11. Texas DSHS has a vaccine dashboard up.
  12. Washington's IHME has a projection: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Using that model, deaths start to drop in February. By March 1st deaths are around 1300/day with the vax vs 2000/day without. By April 1 we are around 400/day vs 1300/day without. Universal masking could really cut death down in January if implemented now. Infections follow the same Feb/Mar drop. The projected infection rate is cut in half by April 1st. Current projections show a max strain on our healthcare system in late January.
  13. Gonna try again at 4:40 CST
  14. https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/
  15. Yes, I think you are correct ... insurance or some other program is likely to cover the admin fee in many cases. Stephanie Hayden was asked a question like "Is the vaccine free and who is going to pay for giving the injection?" and she answered something like "the vaccine is free but the provider can charge an admin fee". She didn't go into who ultimately would pay that fee. Sorry if I mislead anyone...
  16. From the talk I watched, most places will be pharmacies or hospitals. Maybe you will make an appointment online, then go in for your first shot, then get a reminder when it is time to go back for your second shot. You are likely to only be exposed to a few people at the pharmacy. CVS has described this as a likely process. Booking these online appointments might be the 2021 version of searching for toilet paper last spring. Maybe there will be a process for determining if you "qualify" for a shot ... maybe there will be enforcement of the priority groups or maybe it will be on the honor system. Who knows? It would be nice to sort these things out. Our leaders should ensure that no doses are wasted because shots were available but no one was there to get it and the vaccine spoiled.
  17. The Travis County Medical Society and Dell Medical School hosted a town hall on vaccines featuring local leaders Mark Escott and Stephanie Hayden. It's about 30 minutes of powerpoint followed by 30 minutes of Q&A. Some takeaways: They are developing a points based ranking system to determine priority for the vaccine -- it is still under development. They didn't specify if this was countywide, statewide, or nationwide. The vaccine will be free, but providers may charge an admin fee similar to an office visit to cover their costs. The amount might be set by the provider, still TBD. The AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than the mRNA vaccines (like $4 a dose vs $20 a dose) and may be available in higher quantities worldwide. Guidance for those under 18 and those who are pregnant/lactating is not complete. Maybe adults get vax but kids do not? I would not expect large vaccination centers. The state is enrolling existing providers (pharmacies, hospitals, etc) instead.
  18. The SWC was awesome. You could get a few buddies together, drive to almost any game in the league, see the game and find a place to eat, then get back in the car and drive back. Gas was a buck a gallon and tickets were cheap. We did not play in Iowa or Kansas or friggin' West Virginia. A&M, Arkansas and OU on the schedule every year in every sport. Somehow we screwed that up.
  19. Cabo Steve. Dude held an outdoor wedding for 20 people at a time when gatherings were supposed to be limited to 10, breaking an order he signed.
  20. People living in these facilities have had a pretty miserable life since March. My parents are in an independent living place, a mix of small homes and apartments with central common areas. Pre-COVID, it was a very social place. Much of the living space is common and a lot of the apartments are small one-bedrooms. The common spaces have been closed during COVID and a lot of the residents have spent most of their lives in their tiny apartments. They get food delivered to their room twice a day but that's about it. Every doctor trip is a chance for one of them to catch it and maybe spread it and maybe die. One of my parents' friends took just one trip out to see family with masks and distance and it wasn't enough ... she was dead less than two weeks later. Vaccinating the staff and the residents of this place would change their world. Show up, hit 'em all on one day, show up three weeks later, hit 'em all again, wait a week or so .... and these people can all go outside their rooms and see each other again without as much fear of dying from COVID or killing their friends. Mentally, it would be a huge boost for everyone living there. Yes, we all want to do these things too but I can go for a drive, or a walk, or even risk going to a restaurant if I want. Many of these folks can not, and they've been stuck with the same four walls since March with little contact with friends or family. Yes they are old and yes they are more likely to die anyway, but I am willing to wait a few weeks longer if they can move closer to the front of the line.
  21. The Texas antibody testing has been consistently showing around 15% of those tested for antibodies actually having antibodies, since about Aug 1st. And that's kind of a self-selected population, since the tested people thought they might have them. 5x of the Texas cases is about 19% of the population. Use the 5x number or the antibody number, it still isn't enough for 70% herd immunity. Texas hospitalization data shows that the slope of the increase in the November wave was less than the July wave. Maybe this is antibodies at work or some other factor.
  22. Yep, I think this is correct ... Travis County has to get back to Stage 1 to remove the mask requirement which means close to zero average new hospital admits over the past seven days. Counties and cities have their own requirements. So we are likely to all stop wearing masks at the same time, but it might be county by county and city by city, at least in Texas.
  23. I was curious about how big these vaccine shipments might be so I looked it up. Pfizer's ultra-cold vaccine comes five doses to a vial, 175 vials to a tray, up to five trays per box. So one box can hold up to 4,375 doses. To get everyone vaccinated in Travis County in six months, we would need about three boxes per day of vaccine. The Army logistics general suggested that cities might get weekly deliveries, so maybe we would get 20 boxes per week. The vaccine is going to come with supply kits. Each kit has materials for 100 injections. No idea how big they are, but we will need about 130 kits a day in Travis County, or about 920 a week. Of course, the kits need no refrigeration, just a closet somewhere. The kit supply could run a bit ahead of the vaccine supply, so long as you had storage. This stuff just isn't that big. Assuming we can get those quantities of vaccine and kits, I think the biggest problem will be local distribution. Who is allowed to get a dose, who needs a second dose, how to sort out all of the super cold vials to get to multiple distribution sites, making sure you have kits and vials at the same place. To me, a big central vaccination site makes the most sense, maybe with some mobile trucks driving around to nursing homes and other less mobile populations. The Erwin Center would be a great spot.
  24. The NY Times has a great vaccine tracker. Make sure you're figuring in second shots when you count doses vs people who are immune. When Pfizer says they have 20 million doses I think they mean they can make 10 million people about 90-95% immune. Hopefully Pfizer and Moderna can get the run rates up, at least for a year or two. Pfizer and BioNTech have a partnership with a goal of producing 1.3 billion doses in 2021, which is just over 100 million/month. Moderna is a much smaller company. Not all of the production will go to the US. The rest of the world wants this crap to end too. So, yep there are likely to be other vaccines out in addition to the ones with results already announced and hopefully they all can scale.
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