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Texas Jeff

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Everything posted by Texas Jeff

  1. Sorry, I messed up the math.. 11% in Travis Co with 4% of the population...
  2. Texas has a dashboard a lot like the Johns Hopkins dashboard, but not as informative (no data over time): https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 Using that data, right now 79 of 715 cases (11%) are in Travis Co. But, Travis Co has about 4% of the state's population. So, is Travis Co simply more disease-ridden than the rest of the state or simply testing more and finding more cases? Honestly, I could go either way on that one...
  3. 86 cases in Austin as of 7pm today. That's a great number if that's it for today... The previous four days were +18,+17,+4,+17 cases. Today was +7, lowest number of new cases in six days.
  4. Fauci was on CNN and was asked about not being there every day. He said they are trying to rotate people at the pressers because everyone has their normal role to play, it takes time to do them and he has duties at the NIH. He said he was shuttling between the NIH and the White House a bunch and that he was working with the NIH folks on vaccine trials, that some days he just needed to be present at NIH to keep progress going. He said he was fine and not to worry, but don't expect him to appear in the briefing room every day.
  5. One more chart about testing. I was curious to know what percentage of the population has been tested, and the positive test rate for each state. My data is 2-3 days old and I accidently grabbed the 2010 state populations instead of the 2019 populations, so it's a little off, but here's what it looks like: The purple diamond is Washington, the red circle is New York, the green triangle is California and the orange square is Texas. Texas is not testing much but also not seeing a big positive rate. I would like to see us testing more but either they are not finding the positives or we have a low infection rate at the moment. New York is having a huge outbreak even with a 20% positive rate. You might want to avoid the four dots on the right (low test rate, high positive rate) ... New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio and Delaware. The little dot with high testing rate but low positive rate (to the left of the red circle -- California) is New Mexico, a safe place to be.
  6. Well I was curious to know if social distancing in Austin is having an effect. So I searched around to get daily case numbers reported by Austin and Travis County, then made a chart. Here's what it looks like so far, an exponential increase would be just a straight line: Hmmm, maybe a knee forming around March 20th, hard to tell. If we break 100 cases today that's kinda bad, because it means we've gone up an order of magnitude in 8 days. "Stay at home" for us kicked in around March 13th, the day that Austin ISD cancelled school. We are now eight days into it. The curve should be starting to bend.
  7. You probably also need the controller software for the board, any display units, things like that. You at least need the binary image that they are loading. Plus factory lines to make the stuff, any calibration or other factory software they use to manufacture the boxes. If they are using a flexible manufacturer now this might be easier to do, but if they are doing that, why not just tell the flexible manufacturer to just change all lines over to ventilators?
  8. 3M CEO said they were ramping up to produce 35 million respirators (N95 masks, not ventilators) per month in the US, with capacity for 100 million per month worldwide. They are working to double their capacity worldwide within 12 months. I think early on there was some person that said we had 30 million in reserve in the US and we needed 300 million. So, with 3M cranking them out as fast as possible, we'll have what we need in maybe 7-8 months, assuming more production comes online during that time.
  9. Do Brooklyn and Queens residents have a longer transit commute when compared to your average Manhattan resident? Maybe it's being spread via transit, where people sit or touch infected parts of trains and then touch their face on their ride to/from work. Perhaps it's not simply the density, but the use of shared objects like buses, trains or taxis. Just a thought...
  10. We in the US are still early in this crisis compared to others. Check out the total number of deaths, recovered, and in-progress for various countries as of right now: China: 3255 deaths, 71,740 recovered, 6013 active Italy: 4825 deaths, 6072 recovered, 42,681 active USA: 301 deaths, 171 recovered, 23,468 active or, in percentages: China: 4% deaths, 89% recovered, 7% active. (most results are known, active cases decreasing) Italy: 9% deaths, 11% recovered, 80% active (still early but at least recoveries outnumber deaths) USA: 1% deaths, 1% recovered, 98% active (deaths outnumber recoveries, still really early)
  11. Sorry if this is obvious, but the death rate while (number of critical patients < number of ventilators) is much lower than when (number of critical patients > number of beds with ventilators). Like maybe 4x lower. We are still in that first phase and trying to avoid that second phase.
  12. I get that they want people outside, fresh air, fire code ... that makes sense. But if they are going to do that they need to make sure that people in the outside queue are able to stay six feet away from each other. Maybe a line of cones or sidewalk chalk on the ground. Move up one cone at a time. Or hand out tickets for admission.
  13. What is HEB's goal in limiting people inside the stores? Prevent panic? Prevent people from coming in contact with each other? If you start blocking the door and creating queues outside of the store, you are creating group gathering in the line outside. That sounds bad. Seems like they should let people into the store at a rate so that there are no queues at checkout, but let people roam around the store freely to shop. Maybe that's what they are doing, just pushing the queues from checkout to the front door. If they are going to block the door, they need to have some kind of ticketing system like at the deli so that people could grab a ticket at the door, wait in the parking lot, then come in when their number is called rather than wait close together in a line.
  14. I did. I also drove by the hike and bike trail today and saw a lot of people "working from home" from the trail. Maybe we're gonna die...
  15. Looking at the data some more, we are now at the point where China was on Feb 1st. China got to zero new cases yesterday, about 46 days later, with a massive lockdown. For the US, 46 days from today is May 4th. We could get this under control and be at the same spot sometime in May, but April is going to suck.
  16. Some good news, Italy's new case rate is bending down a bit if you look at the log scale. It's still exponential but the rate of growth is slowing. It took them 6 days to go from 100 to 1K, 10 days to go from 1K to 10K, and they are now right at 10 days without hitting 100k. Of course, it's possible they have reached the limit of their ability to test per day. But still it appears to be slowing but still exponential. Meanwhile in the US, we are right on a log-linear track. Eight days to go from 100 to 1K, eight days to go from 1K to 10K, and we are now seven days away from 100K. I think we will see a knee in the log-linear curve sometime in the next week as the effects of self-isolation start to show. Hopefully we don't hit 100K cases by next Thursday. If we keep it under 100K through the end of the month, that is real progress and a sign that all of the stay at home efforts are paying off. If we hit 100K prior to next Thursday, well then you can say that maybe testing is ramping up and catching more cases but our growth rate is still exponential and speeding up. Not great, Bob...
  17. You can try here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ They have handy dandy linear and log charts for cases and deaths over time....
  18. You can do this today but you have to ride a bus from the red line station downtown to the airport. The train would be the same thing but maybe a little faster. How long are you willing to spend on the red line + the new train to get to the airport? A 45 minute ride? An hour? More than an hour? At some point it makes sense to have someone drop you off at the airport or take ridesharing or just pay for parking at the airport.
  19. A town in Italy was running an infection control experiment at the beginning of the outbreak. Timing was accidental, they were just trying to see what would happen if they tested an entire population for a disease. They tested everyone for COVID-19 in round 1, all 3300 town members, and found that 3% were infected and half of the infected had no symptoms. So they quarantined those folks and their contacts and retested everyone 10 days later. Infection rates had dropped tenfold, to around 0.3% infected. https://www.ft.com/content/0dba7ea8-6713-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 An easy to do at-home test would really help beat this thing...
  20. Q&A with Trump from today's press conference. sorry for the all-caps ... he was asked how long Americans would have to really focus on social distancing Knows nothing, commits to nothing, ready to take credit should things break his way...
  21. There is some data from Wuhan to show how this works. In China, they asked all of the people who tested positive to guess what day they started showing symptoms, and then backed that up to show when they probably were exposed. Shortly after the date of the lockdown, they believe new infections dropped significantly. But it took around 12 days for that drop to show up in the form of a reduction of new daily cases. Once you start social distancing or lockdowns, you have to go through about two weeks and trust that it is working before you see a benefit in the data.
  22. His shipping is about $10, plus he has to take orders and individually mail them to people. So .... he went into a store where the cost of producing, delivering and staging these items was completely paid for, took everything they had Grinch-style, and built his horde. Now, he either has to give it away or sell to a local population, or increase the cost of delivery 10x by sending small packages all across the country.
  23. I normally don't use foul language, but fuck these guys: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html Dudes drove around Tennessee and Kentucky early in the crisis, hitting up every place they could find and buying all of the hand sanitizer and wipes they had. Now they have 17,700 bottles of hand sanitizer in their garage and self-storage, hoping to sell it on Amazon for multiples of what they bought it for.
  24. I was a kid in the 1970's during gas rationing. The rule was if your license plate ended in an odd number you could get gas on an odd numbered day, even on even numbered days. It sucked. Lines around the block every day for gas. Cars idling to keep A/C going. Everyone topped off their tank every chance because they knew they could not get gas on the next day, or were afraid that rationing would get worse, or that the stations would run dry. We used to roll up for maybe two gallons of gas at a time. I remember being amazed when it went away and one day we could just go get gas, anytime we wanted, no lines.
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