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Everything posted by CustersDoctor
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IIRC the twelfth choice for the BIG12 back in the 90's came down to Baylor or Houston. UH did better on TV than BU. BU had slightly better attendance. But I always heard that BU had more influence in the legislature than UH. And that A&M and UT correctly believed they owned the Houston TV market. A&M and UT also believed that they'd have better luck recruiting in the greater Houston area if UH were relegated to second tier status. And that turned out to be true.
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Lets say ESPN's portion on the contract with the Big12 is 20mill a year. The deal ESPN signed is, IF the BIG12 adds any P5 schools, then ESPN will throw another 20mill a year into the pot for each P5 addition. This gives ESPN access to the extra content. As we all know the networks and cable companies already have ample content so they all have pretty much dropped out of the PACX sweepstakes. The PACX owns the late night time slot. The PACX has SIX schools that get good ratings. It is better for ESPN to let the PACX fall apart and the BIG12 scoop up the six good schools. That way ESPN gets the good content and ESPN can own the late night slot without having to sign a conference deal that obliges them to carry two or three games a season with the schools with bad ratings. Last fall the networks media rating scale was published. Here's how they rated the PACX football teams: OU 5.54MILL, UW 2.46MIL, ASU 1.95MIL, CAL 1.14MIL, UU 1.09MIL, UA 1.04MIL, CU 95K, STANFORD 85K, WSU 85K, OSU 79K. The networks will always want to give their best time slots to the games that have the highest ratings potential. If ESPN can coax the top 6 schools into the BIG12 they won't have to ever air the west coast ratings killers like Stanford, WSU & OSU. And though CAL's ratings are ahead of CU's, the conventional wisdom is this: CAL's trajectory is downward because the elitist snobs there don't really care for pugilistic blood sports. CU's is at least making an effort to dig their way out of the cellar. It is not absurd that as many as six schools would defect from the PACX when Klownkov gives them the final details of the new media rights deal.
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I saw this and it is great news. Imagine being in a conference that is going to short You 4Million dollars on your pay out this year because you defrauded comcast. And imagine that same conference isn't getting its Holiday Bowl 3mill payout this year because UCLA dropped out of the Bowl 2 years ago. And imagine the truck stop conference just over the mountains is handing out an extra 13mill this year. And that Truck stop conference has invited you to come over and play. How do you Not ditch your old conference and get you a Peterbilt, some beef jerkey, a CB radio and the Bucee's app on your phone.
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I think the only criteria was, "What four mid majors have good metrics and a have the best national perception" I said good metrics, not the best metrics because SDSU, Tulane & ECU had metrics as good or better than some schools that made the cut. And the national perception for the 4 chosen ones were the best of any 2nd tier schools. Nationally the perception of UC is good because they recently beat ND and made the CFP. UCF had an undefeated season recently and play home games at Disneyworld and people like Disneyworld. BYU has special underpants wearing fans all over the place. And Houston is in a huge population base, surely that city should have a college team and my Grandpa said something about Phi-Slamma- Jamma. Now we all know UHs national perception is to high, but none the less it was good enough for an invitation to the show. We all know they'll need lots of visiting fans to fill their stadium. <insert here's why they get to host UT this year rational> We also know UH is number 4 in merchandise sales in Houston. (Behind UT, AGGIE & LSU) Nonetheless they were a better choice than anyone else.
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Adding UConn is this simple: I believe in the East Coast Media Bias. Adding UConn to the Big12 increases the media bias for the entire conference.
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Anything to get clicks. However, Memphis was number 5 in the Big12 sweepstakes 2 years ago. The hold back then was they just didn't have a plan for facility improvements. But, At the end of 2022 they announced a 200 million dollar Liberty Bowl improvement package. I went to the Tech-Mississippi State Bowl Game there at the end on the 21 season. $200 million is about 1/3 of what's needed to upgrade the place. You all prolly know what a dump Jones Stadium here in Lubbock was 20 years ago. The Liberty Bowl is far worse than the Jones ever was and Tech to their credit has spent about $700 million (counting the current project) to make the stadium really nice. Spending 200mill on that dump will make their place about the fifth best in the American Athletic Conference. It would indeed be strategically good for the BIG12 to have a school right in the middle of SEC country. However, there is NO way they are ready to be in the number three conference. I mean they legitimately lost out to Coug High!!!
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There are several advantages for CU by making the move. 1. Geographic: A. Big complaint by Boulder business owners is that visiting teams from the PAC12 don't bring fans like the BIG12 did. Well duh, geographic isolation has consequences. B. Central time zone games get more viewers. This indisputable fact is why Larry Scott worked so hard on landing CTZ teams back in 2010. C. Playing games in recruiting hot beds matters. 2. Stability: It's ironic that the conference that has lost six members in 12 years is the stable one, but that is where we are. 3. More linear less streaming. Broadcast TV and Cable are still where the eyeballs are. It may be different in 6 years, but as of now the PACX current contract has more streaming than any other conference and if the new TV deal is headed by AppleZon then it will be even more streaming oriented. 4. The PACX deal may come in at below the dollar threshold that CU can live with.
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CU's tone hasn't changed at all. Nobody at CU was saying They'd be leaving soon, it was all echo chamber podcasters who have absolutely nothing to lose by creating click bate. All PACX schools would prefer that they get a deal that is good for them. I do think the Kliavkoff is running out of time. If the PACX wants to ad SDSU they have to do it by the end of June because their exit fee increases.
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There were people that absolutely did NOT want to add 2 religious schools. And then risk the BIG12 becoming the religious school conference.
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From a networks point of view one of the worst part of a conference deal is that they're forced to carry the bottom dwellers in some prime slots at least twice a year. By NOT bidding for PACX content they seal its fate. The top 6 schools will go to the Big12 leaving the four worst TV schools behind. ESPN & Fox end up with the gravy at 31million a year and don't have to broadcast OST, WST, Cal and whoever the 4th worst school is. (depending on where one looks the 4th worst TV draw in the PACX is either STANFORD or AST)
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Tech was your best draw in Austin in odd years and there's no denying it. BUT you know from history that the Aggie game did the same thing in Austin. And you know from recent history how 'Bama traveled. And I'm certain LSU will bring ten of thousands as well. Tennessee travels well and so do Ole Miss and Auburn. So Austin is likely to have two Hotel busting, campground filling crowds each and every year, rather that ONE every other year.
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You can act like the Tech game isn't a big deal but the years that they play in Austin it's the biggest home game of the season. Not only is it always a sellout, but there are 10 of thousands of people here in town who don't even have tickets.
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OUCH! So PACX schools are now making budget cuts to cover the Comcast refund. AND more importantly this makes me think WST knows the PACX is dead and WST needs to conserve funds and stretch dollars because they're not included in the realignment talks.
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Every conference TV deal requires that each member school gets a set minimum of good time slot games. That's why ESPN & Fox dropped out of bidding for PAC10 content. BECAUSE, If the PAC10 collapses and the 4 corners come to the Big12 and possibly OUW, ESPN & FOX get the content of those teams because they already own the Big12 content. If this happens ESPN & Fox get the gravy of the PAC10 without having to carry the 4 ratings disaster schools (Cal, Stanford, OSt &WSt).
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Kinda like referring to Stillwater as Dowisetrepla
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A great thing about conference TV deals is that they always have stipulations about every team gets a certain number of good time slots. So TV ratings disaters like Northwestern, Rutgers & Maryland get some exposure. Iowa, which is 8th or 9th ratings wise knows that with the arrival of USC & UCLA, that they will be pushed to the 11 spot in the pecking order and would drop even further if OUW were added. The PAC10 has 4 teams that are ratings disasters. (OST, WST, CAL, STAN) Rumors this week make it sound like NO normal linear carrier is bidding on PAC10 Tier 1 rights. By not bidding ESPN increases the chances of a PAC10 collapse. This would spur the 6 gravy PAC10 teams to join the NEW12. ESPN has the rights to the Big12. ESPN wouldn't have to find good time slots for Cal, Stan, OSt & Wst if the PAC collapses.
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Obviously he can't MATH. Together USC and UCLA will host nine East Block conference games a year. So there are five BIG schools that won't travel to California in any particular season. Being one of the five schools that doesn't travel west would be a slight advantage. If you add OUW then the west coast schools will host a combined total of 14 East Block schools meaning each east block school will make ONE and only one west coast trip in a season and nobody has the advantage of avoiding the stress of traveling to California.
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When the Big12 added Cincy, UCF, BYU & UH the national perception is they were really good additions for the BIG12. Cincy had recently been in the playoffs, UCF had that undefeated season a while back, BYU is the best all white team around and the average Joe in America thinks that UH delivers the CFB market in Houston. (The average Joe doesn't know that UH is the #4 CFB team in Houston) So what is the national perception of SDSU? Does the average Joe know their stadium only seats 33,000 and would be the smallest in the Big12 by 7,000? Does SDSU get a bump for their recent deep March Madness success? Is the only SDSU football player you can name Marshall Faulk circa 1993? Does the average American know that San Diego is a city and not a state? If the PAC10 doesn't lose any more schools, then is the New12 better off with its current membership? Yormark, who is the best commissioner in the CFB wants PTZ teams in the conference and if we can't steal any PAC schools I think he will go for SDSU and Fresno.
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If the Pac12 gets a good enough deal and OUW do NOT get a BIG invite, then they will NOT expand! Such a TV deal would have to be a 6 year 1.8 billion dollar contract. Which is 30mi a year per school, but only if they stay at 10 schools. So if they stay together they add nobody. Adding SDSU or Fresno or SMU dilutes the pay out and increases the infighting over the limited available linear exposure. Does that mean SDSU is off to the Big12? Not if the PAC collapses. If OUW get their wedding invitation then they are gone. Or if the best new deal is lousy then there may 6 PAC schools in line to come to the BIG12. So SDSU's only route to the BIG12 is if the PAC stays together. So if the Pac collapses the BIG12 ends up with 4-6 PAC schools then SDSU gets in to some third rate version of the PAC12 with OST, WST, CAL, STAN, FresnoSt and 4 to 6 more schools wanting to make what is now a vertical move. So the SDSU AD is correct. They either end up as the 13th team in the BIG12 or as a team the PAC12. A sad third rate version of what they have now. Such a revamped version of the PAC12 would be as big of a ratings blunder as putting Conan Obrien on the Tonight Show.
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As I said, "Nobody signs until everybody signs". None of the 4 corners are going to sign away their GOR right now. Then a month from now OUW take off for the BIG.
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Here's a summary of the three most reasonable PAC10 scenarios and outcomes. Probability 1: The new deal turns out to be around 25mill per year per team with a 60/40 split linear to streaming ratio. If this is the best they can do, then the conference is doomed and the 4 corners + OUW join the BIG12. (Unless of course OUW get the BIG invite) Probability 2: A 6 year 1.8billion dollar deal is on the table. That comes out to 30ill a year per school as long as they don't expand. This deal is also 60/40 split linear to streaming. The reason nobody has signed off on this deal is that nobody signs until everybody signs. Eight of the PAC10 schools are happy with this deal but OUW is lobbying for a BIG invite. Probability 3: The BIG invites OUW by the end of June. The odds of OUW getting into the BIG have increased recently for a few reasons: A. They quickly hired a new commissioner knowing that if they were going to expand they could do it now or in about 6 years. B. Originally the Eastern Block was uneasy about having four left coast schools to travel to and preferred to stay at two. But as it turns out it is more equal for the Eastern Block if there are four west coast schools. Here's why: The BIG plays 9 conference games. To lesson the stress on traveling, the left coast schools would host 5 conference games a season and only have to travel for 4 conference games a season. If you have only have two west coast schools those two schools would host a combined total of 10 home games and of course 1 of those games will always be USC VS UCLA so in that scenario NINE east block schools travel west every season. IF you add OUW then between the four WCS you'd have 20 home conference home conference games, Since the four WCS would play each other at home that would be 6 of the 20 home conference games that they'd play, leaving exactly FOURTEEN home games and there are FOURTEEN eastern block schools meaning every eastern block school goes west once each and every season. It is far more equitable for everybody to have to travel west once a year rather than just NINE east coast schools travel west. If there are two or four WCS the easten schools wouldn't take their football team out west more than once a year anyhow. But with four WCS no eastern block school would have the advantage of NOT having the stress of going out west. In the event OUW get the invite, then of course the 4 corners join the Big 12. CALSTAN and the State Schools have to coble something together with Fresno, SDSU, UNLV, Nevada, Boise, and some worthless sports programs like SMU. I've been thinking probability #2 is how it will turn out. The PAC stays at 10, they get 30mil a year, with 40% streaming. BTW 40% streaming is only a little worse than what they currently have. Their current deal is about 66/33 and most of the streaming is on the PAC12 network with its 15,000,000 subscribers. Any new deal will have a streamer like Apple or Amazon so the potential audience is much much more than the PAC12 NETWORK.
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This is outstanding information. My biggest take away is how the PAC10 already has an exposure problem. Over the last five years the BIG12 has had 84 rated games while the PAC12 has had 59. That's FIVE fewer rated games a season. Also on the surface the PAC12 boasts that their viewership is better than the BIG12 (1.5MIL average per game vs 1mil average per game) But the reason for this is in the fewer games that get broadcast. So the Big12s worst potential ratings games are getting picked up and broadcast, the worst potential games for the PAC12 did not get broadcast therefore those ratings turds didn't crash their average rating.
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There is a lot of credence to the idea that the eastern block wants to see how the west coast travel stress affects their teams, especially in the non revenue sports and the sports with 30 or more games in a season like softball, baseball and basketball. If the BIG stands pat with two Interstate 5 schools then only NINE BIG football teams will travel out west every year. How do you decide who those nine schools will be? Of course USC can't wait to host UM, OST, MST, WIS, PENNST. Just imagine the disappointment when two or three of the 5 BIG games that you host are Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnisota or Maryland or even the moderately successful or previously successful schools like Purdue, Indiana, Iowa & Nebraska. The reality is that the BIG will have to send some real crappy football teams to Cali every year. Teams that you have ZERO history with, teams that are NOT your rivals. And in turn USC & UCLA will each make 4-5 trips east every season. And some of those trips will be to play the lower two thirds of the conference.
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The YouTube echo chamber guys who were pushing the Amazon deal today, obviously haven't thought through the implications of adding oregon in washington to the big. What you just wrote makes sense and what I wrote makes sense, I can't see OUW Going to the big.
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