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CustersDoctor

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  1. Here, since you're to lazy, let me google it for you. Accelerated: See Foward Thinking Forward Thinking: See Creative Creative: See Accelerated That should help clear the air.
  2. Conference deals always Include a minimum number of good appearances for even the worst school. So Oregon state and Washington state get more exposure than they ought and therefore UO and UW have a few less than they ought. It's a reasonable question to ask, "What's the linear minimum in the BIG12?" On the surface you might think it would be identical to the other NEW12 members, then you might think, it might be identical but wouldn't the number of guaranteed linear appearances go down with multiple PACX teams moving over? Well a great thing about coming to the Big12 with the top 6 schools is this: Let's say the PACX deal is a 2linear-3streaming mix. If 6 schools come over BOTH of those linear spots come with them and you don't have to split them with CALSTAN and OST & WSU. So their linear appearances improves. If the PACX claim that they OWN the Saturday late night time slots are true, then there's 14 Saturday night time slots per season for the BIG12 WEST to have all to themselves. They'll have three rivalry games to put in there. UOvsUW, BYU vs UU, AST vs UA. Maybe a non-con game or two vs an SEC,ACC or B1G team. Then your other late night games will come from the west of the rockies teams that travel out west.
  3. The PAC12 already has a streaming problem. Their linear to streaming last season was about 66/33. Fifteen of their first 32 games were streamed, thats nearly 50%. During conference play the PAC12 network usually had 2 gamed. That's 2 out of 6 games or 33%. With the fact the BIG12 locked up most of the remaining time slots the PACX at best will have 3 linear games a week. That's a 60/40 split and only if they stay at ten teams which I'm pretty sure they will. I believe the PACX won't go lower than a 60/40 split and won't take less than 27mill guaranteed. And if they do some BS of $23mill guaranteed, but if we can show just X number of new subscribers you'll all get 7 million a year more, then the 6 schools with options will leave.
  4. So in edition to the usual junk mail asking for donations to phacility improvements, NIL collectives and season ticket renewals and upgrades, PACX fans gonna get solicitations badgering fans about their Applezon streaming subscription. 🙄
  5. 1. I love deadlines. I especially enjoy the whooshing sound they make as they fly by. 2. With all this goal post moving by the PACX, I keep thinking, "Two more weeks to flatten the deal."
  6. John Conzano article from Sept 22, 2022. His PACX analysis was more accurate and more objective back then. It's kind of funny to go back in time to read some of his stuff. https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-amazons-nfl-win-creates-moment Conzano wrote this about pending Big12 contract negotiations. On Sept 8,2022. https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-latest-big-12-expansion-jab "I’m fascinated by the 180-degree difference in strategy between Yormark and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff. Outside of Kliavkoff’s spicy Media Day appearance in July, he’s remained silent. In fact, the Pac-12 commissioner was in Atlanta for the Oregon-Georgia game and didn’t do interviews. Presumably because the Pac-12 is amid a media-rights negotiation. On the same day, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey conducted a lengthy impromptu news conference in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium press box. The Big 12’s Yormark was also asked on Wednesday about his conference’s media rights negotiations. There’s some confusion about whether the Big 12 is — or isn’t — in the exclusive negotiating window. “That process has started,” Yormark told reporters. “I met with ESPN last week... I’ll be meeting with FOX in the next week... My gut tells me that both FOX and ESPN would like to (negotiate early) but I’ll know for sure... in the next week.” Some interesting semantics at play here. I bounced Yormark’s quote off two TV-industry insiders. They agreed that it sounds like all Yormark has is an indication from ESPN that they’d like to talk outside the exclusive-negotiating window. Per the contract, the Big 12 can only talk with ESPN and FOX at this point. The networks like it that way, too. If they’re not in an exclusive, 30-day negotiating window, there’s no ticking clock." Turns out BY was INDEED involved in contract negotiations and the BIG12 getting their deal done early may be the thing that kills the PACX.
  7. Big18 Three Divisions WEST: UW, UA, AST, UU, UO, BYU NORTH: KST, CINCY, WVU, IST, CU, UK SOUTH: TECH, OKST, TCU, BU, UH, UCF. 9 conference games. You play five divisional games, play one North school at home and one on the road, one West school at home and one on the road. So in the six years of the contract you'll play all 6 North schools once at home and once on the road and all 6 West schools once at home and once on the road.
  8. No way schools with options accept this deal.
  9. That's 24mill over a 6 year contract. You can't leave 24mill on the table, of course they'd jump for 24 million
  10. This is the way. The best contract the PACX could possibly put together is a 6yr 1.8 billion dollar deal. That comes out to 30mill a year per school. Adding schools dilutes that revenue. Not only does SDSU not add value they take slice of the pie and worse, they get some of the extremely limited linear time slots. IF the PACX were to get a 6yr, 1.8bill dollar deal with a 60/40 split linear to streaming deal and you add two schools, then each school would get 25mill a year and the TV split would drop to 50/50. There's no way the current PACX would go for that.
  11. If I referenced one of the WVU dudes as, 'The one with black lung disease" it wouldn't help delineate who I was talking about.
  12. WSU press release on how effed up their budget is. Nearly 12mill in debt. Can't imagine what they'll do if the PACX implodes and they're in WAC. https://news.wsu.edu/news/2023/06/02/wsu-athletics-addresses-11-5-million-budget-deficit/
  13. WVU Super Fan and pod caster "Gold & Blue Dude" is the one who died a couple of months ago.
  14. Kirk Schulz, June 9th, 2023. "At least the projections that I have seen, umm, I'm not sure if it will be a lot larger than we saw in the past, shouldn't be a lot smaller than we saw in the past, it may be fairly flat. But when we add the football playoff dollars on to that we should see a nice bump in revenue. So if we can control expenses then all the sudden you, OK, Now we actually have additional dollars coming in that can be strategically allocated including debt reduction, building up a reserve fund and some of those kinds of things."
  15. You've got to watch this two minute clip from the local WSU news station. At the very start, the sports anchor states that the WSU'S Athetic department is $12,000,000 in debt!! Then at the 1:23 mark there's a Kirk Schulz clip from his Friday sh!t show press conference. Remember as you watch is that he is one of the PACX presidents on the PACX board and he has NO idea what the new media rights deal will come in at.
  16. Month old report from WSU area TV station. 1:29 mark, WSU's budget from last season was approved with a 1,000,000 shortfall. They were counting on a $40,000,000 PAC12 payout in 2023 and thought they'd still be a million short, of course what they were doing is borrowing money from the future super good deal they thought the PACX would land in the near future. But as we all now know the $40mill payout is now $36mill due to the Comcast refund. And they've borrowed a million from the future PACX deal that ain't gonna be so good. So their 2023 athletic budget is $5,000,000 in the hole. And I'd bet anything that they WERE planning to overspend by at least a million this next year with the rational that "We borrowed money from the future once, lets do it again."
  17. At least Kirk Schulz has been opening up about their pending financial doom. About a month ago he was the first PACX mouthpiece to issue an edict to the athletic department to stop all new spending. In the last week UW began rumbling about a shortfall greater than the Comcast refund. As of now we don't know if any other PACX schools were spending money as if they'd be making 40mill a year in 2024.
  18. It is clear WSU is fucked. Kirk Schulz is the president of WSU and one of 3 PACX member President's on the PACX board. He sure sounds terribly unconvincing about the new deal. BUT the biggest take away is he makes it clear they've been spending money based on PROJECTIONS. Before USC/UCLA defected, the PAC12 reasonably figured their new media deal would be around $50mill a year per school. Even after the defections there are a lot of reports that around August of 2022 that the PAC12 had a $40mill a year deal all but finished. But four things happened in this order. 1. The PACX schools knowing they have this $40mill a year all but locked up wanted to do their due diligence and make sure there wasn't more money out there. They still had 20 months on their contract, so why not. 2. During this delay the networks involved in the new contract wanted to verify the TV ratings data that they were largely basing their bids on. And it was at this time they discovered that their competitor Comcast had been overcharged and that the PAC12 was giving bogus ratings data to the new contract media partners. So that $40mill deal started to unravel. 3. Oregon and UW didn't want to sign the $40mill deal until they were certain the B1G wasn't gonna call. 4. While the PAC12 was stalling for more money on one hand and while their potential contract was starting to unravel on the other, the BIG12 deal was finished and we got it signed. The side effect of the NEW12 getting their deal done was that it filled most all the inventory needs of the networks. Go ahead and ignore the above paragraph if you want because it's mostly conjecture. But in listening to Kirk Schulz, I'm certain he's saying that for the last 2 years they've been spending money based on their projections that by the fall of 2024 they'd be making at least $40mill a year. They've been funding upgrades, enlarging facilities and handing out pay raises and contract extensions based on the projections of $40mill a year and not the terribly dissapointing deal that is about to come in. They have written checks on an income bump that is not happening.
  19. 3 games on linear & 2 on streaming will be 60% linear vs 40% streaming.
  20. The PAC12 has lived with a lousy linear to streaming ratio for six years. Literally a third of their content is buried on the PAC12 network. During the non conference part of the season the ratio is really bad. Last season 15 of the first 32 PAC12 games were streamed. Soooo, by staying at 10 teams, the PACX will get just enough linear coverage to have THREE games a week on linear During conference play. That gives them ratio of 3 linear to 2 streaming, when it has been 4 to 2. Surely they can get Thursday night game, a Saturday matinee, and the Saturday late night slot on linear. If they can pull this off they'll have 60% linear ratio and prolly a 6 year 1.8 billion dollar deal that pays 30mill a year per school and no expansion.
  21. Well if what I said is indeed dumb and we're talking about the PAC12, doesn't that make more likely than not.
  22. Seriously, I do not know. Because nobody actually needs the content. Fox and ESPN could indeed take advantage of the PACX content if they had it. My 6year 1.8billion prediction I still think is the most likely. But the second most likely is a PACX collapse. Fueled by too little money and too much streaming. There are so many reasons that no linear partner is bidding on the content. FOX & ESPN will get the best part of the PACX if it collapses so why bid on the entire conference. By not bidding on the PACX FOX & ESPN pretty much insure its collapse and then the top 6 teams, the teams that actually make the networks money, move to the BIG12 and FOX & ESPN already have the BIG12 content sown up. So They'd get the gravy and not have to carry the bottom four. (OrSt, WST, CAL, Stan) Not only that, but by letting the conference die they assure the death of the PAC12 network. Its in Fox's & ESPN's best interest for the tiny little speck of a conference streaming network to wither away. If this happens, just think of the 10's millions of dollars that the PAC12 poured in to their network, then to have ZERO to show for it. So really the PACX's best hope for money is for some struggling streaming company to think that risking 1.8bill on the PACX is worth it. Apple and Peacock are doing poorly. Everybody says, 'Apple has money to burn.". Though that is true, Apple does not actually ever burn any money. They wisely invest it, and any contract they sign is extremely detailed. The PACX had a studio and some infrastucture that Apple doesn't. (But weren't they moving the PAC studio? Is the move completed?) Now as for PEACOCK, they don't need the studio or the infrastructure. So they wouldn't want to pay for that. Now here's a thought. Peacock is part of NBC, NBC is part of Comcast and the PAC12 owes COMCAST over $40million. Is that good or bad for a PACX-NBC wedding. Something else is NBC is absolutely not interested in the PACX Saturday late night content. They have made it clear they don't want to compete against their SNL content. So it really leaves Apple as the most likely bidder and there is no way the PACX would accept a contract that is too heavy on streaming. So I just don't know.
  23. You're not wrong, but my postulation is just as correct as yours. I don't care who is right, I just want to all end. Just like I want the Fast & Furious franchise to end.
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