Jump to content

CustersDoctor

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    307
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by CustersDoctor

  1. No more Cloak Room crap from me on this thread. Back on topic. I think the PACX has a 1.8bill 6 year deal ready to sign. That comes out to 30mil a year per school. 60% of the games will be linear. If you think 40% streaming is to much streaming, well that is about what their current ration is. They will wait until early July to sign the deal. The reason they will wait is so that they CANNOT expand. They can't afford to expand. By waiting until after the end of June, SDSU's buyout increases significantly. The PACX wants to have an excuse as to why they are'nt going to add SDSU or anybody else. But it really comes down to wanting to keep as much money for themselves as possible. If they add two schools to get back to 12, then the payout per school drops from 30mil a year to 25mil a year.
  2. That was one of my grandfathers favorite sayings. Its applicable in so many situations. Especially in todays "We're practically there" tweets.
  3. Is this a new tweet because its nearly identical in content to about 10 other tweets over the last 10 months. "There is a deal on the table that we're all ready to sign as soon as the deal that we are willing to sign is on the table."
  4. Of all the unforced errors, the biggest one is NOT having a media partner on the PAC12 network. Remember that Fox is a stakeholder in the B1G network. Some B1G schools don't like that fact because Fox has a lot of control on which games are relegated to the BIG network. But since Fox has a stake in the B1G network they certainly had to be vocal in landing USC & UCLA since that had the two fold effect of adding value to Fox's investment in the B1G network while simultaneously destroying the value of the PAC12 network. If ESPN or CBS or Fox had a stake in the PAC12 network that stakeholder would have been active in keeping the PAC12 together. That stakeholder would have been working on a good OTA & cable contract with the Pac-12. But Scott wanted to go at it alone and it cost him dearly.
  5. IIRC the twelfth choice for the BIG12 back in the 90's came down to Baylor or Houston. UH did better on TV than BU. BU had slightly better attendance. But I always heard that BU had more influence in the legislature than UH. And that A&M and UT correctly believed they owned the Houston TV market. A&M and UT also believed that they'd have better luck recruiting in the greater Houston area if UH were relegated to second tier status. And that turned out to be true.
  6. Lets say ESPN's portion on the contract with the Big12 is 20mill a year. The deal ESPN signed is, IF the BIG12 adds any P5 schools, then ESPN will throw another 20mill a year into the pot for each P5 addition. This gives ESPN access to the extra content. As we all know the networks and cable companies already have ample content so they all have pretty much dropped out of the PACX sweepstakes. The PACX owns the late night time slot. The PACX has SIX schools that get good ratings. It is better for ESPN to let the PACX fall apart and the BIG12 scoop up the six good schools. That way ESPN gets the good content and ESPN can own the late night slot without having to sign a conference deal that obliges them to carry two or three games a season with the schools with bad ratings. Last fall the networks media rating scale was published. Here's how they rated the PACX football teams: OU 5.54MILL, UW 2.46MIL, ASU 1.95MIL, CAL 1.14MIL, UU 1.09MIL, UA 1.04MIL, CU 95K, STANFORD 85K, WSU 85K, OSU 79K. The networks will always want to give their best time slots to the games that have the highest ratings potential. If ESPN can coax the top 6 schools into the BIG12 they won't have to ever air the west coast ratings killers like Stanford, WSU & OSU. And though CAL's ratings are ahead of CU's, the conventional wisdom is this: CAL's trajectory is downward because the elitist snobs there don't really care for pugilistic blood sports. CU's is at least making an effort to dig their way out of the cellar. It is not absurd that as many as six schools would defect from the PACX when Klownkov gives them the final details of the new media rights deal.
  7. I saw this and it is great news. Imagine being in a conference that is going to short You 4Million dollars on your pay out this year because you defrauded comcast. And imagine that same conference isn't getting its Holiday Bowl 3mill payout this year because UCLA dropped out of the Bowl 2 years ago. And imagine the truck stop conference just over the mountains is handing out an extra 13mill this year. And that Truck stop conference has invited you to come over and play. How do you Not ditch your old conference and get you a Peterbilt, some beef jerkey, a CB radio and the Bucee's app on your phone.
  8. I think the only criteria was, "What four mid majors have good metrics and a have the best national perception" I said good metrics, not the best metrics because SDSU, Tulane & ECU had metrics as good or better than some schools that made the cut. And the national perception for the 4 chosen ones were the best of any 2nd tier schools. Nationally the perception of UC is good because they recently beat ND and made the CFP. UCF had an undefeated season recently and play home games at Disneyworld and people like Disneyworld. BYU has special underpants wearing fans all over the place. And Houston is in a huge population base, surely that city should have a college team and my Grandpa said something about Phi-Slamma- Jamma. Now we all know UHs national perception is to high, but none the less it was good enough for an invitation to the show. We all know they'll need lots of visiting fans to fill their stadium. <insert here's why they get to host UT this year rational> We also know UH is number 4 in merchandise sales in Houston. (Behind UT, AGGIE & LSU) Nonetheless they were a better choice than anyone else.
  9. Adding UConn is this simple: I believe in the East Coast Media Bias. Adding UConn to the Big12 increases the media bias for the entire conference.
  10. Anything to get clicks. However, Memphis was number 5 in the Big12 sweepstakes 2 years ago. The hold back then was they just didn't have a plan for facility improvements. But, At the end of 2022 they announced a 200 million dollar Liberty Bowl improvement package. I went to the Tech-Mississippi State Bowl Game there at the end on the 21 season. $200 million is about 1/3 of what's needed to upgrade the place. You all prolly know what a dump Jones Stadium here in Lubbock was 20 years ago. The Liberty Bowl is far worse than the Jones ever was and Tech to their credit has spent about $700 million (counting the current project) to make the stadium really nice. Spending 200mill on that dump will make their place about the fifth best in the American Athletic Conference. It would indeed be strategically good for the BIG12 to have a school right in the middle of SEC country. However, there is NO way they are ready to be in the number three conference. I mean they legitimately lost out to Coug High!!!
  11. There are several advantages for CU by making the move. 1. Geographic: A. Big complaint by Boulder business owners is that visiting teams from the PAC12 don't bring fans like the BIG12 did. Well duh, geographic isolation has consequences. B. Central time zone games get more viewers. This indisputable fact is why Larry Scott worked so hard on landing CTZ teams back in 2010. C. Playing games in recruiting hot beds matters. 2. Stability: It's ironic that the conference that has lost six members in 12 years is the stable one, but that is where we are. 3. More linear less streaming. Broadcast TV and Cable are still where the eyeballs are. It may be different in 6 years, but as of now the PACX current contract has more streaming than any other conference and if the new TV deal is headed by AppleZon then it will be even more streaming oriented. 4. The PACX deal may come in at below the dollar threshold that CU can live with.
  12. CU's tone hasn't changed at all. Nobody at CU was saying They'd be leaving soon, it was all echo chamber podcasters who have absolutely nothing to lose by creating click bate. All PACX schools would prefer that they get a deal that is good for them. I do think the Kliavkoff is running out of time. If the PACX wants to ad SDSU they have to do it by the end of June because their exit fee increases.
  13. There were people that absolutely did NOT want to add 2 religious schools. And then risk the BIG12 becoming the religious school conference.
  14. From a networks point of view one of the worst part of a conference deal is that they're forced to carry the bottom dwellers in some prime slots at least twice a year. By NOT bidding for PACX content they seal its fate. The top 6 schools will go to the Big12 leaving the four worst TV schools behind. ESPN & Fox end up with the gravy at 31million a year and don't have to broadcast OST, WST, Cal and whoever the 4th worst school is. (depending on where one looks the 4th worst TV draw in the PACX is either STANFORD or AST)
  15. Tech was your best draw in Austin in odd years and there's no denying it. BUT you know from history that the Aggie game did the same thing in Austin. And you know from recent history how 'Bama traveled. And I'm certain LSU will bring ten of thousands as well. Tennessee travels well and so do Ole Miss and Auburn. So Austin is likely to have two Hotel busting, campground filling crowds each and every year, rather that ONE every other year.
  16. You can act like the Tech game isn't a big deal but the years that they play in Austin it's the biggest home game of the season. Not only is it always a sellout, but there are 10 of thousands of people here in town who don't even have tickets.
  17. OUCH! So PACX schools are now making budget cuts to cover the Comcast refund. AND more importantly this makes me think WST knows the PACX is dead and WST needs to conserve funds and stretch dollars because they're not included in the realignment talks.
  18. Every conference TV deal requires that each member school gets a set minimum of good time slot games. That's why ESPN & Fox dropped out of bidding for PAC10 content. BECAUSE, If the PAC10 collapses and the 4 corners come to the Big12 and possibly OUW, ESPN & FOX get the content of those teams because they already own the Big12 content. If this happens ESPN & Fox get the gravy of the PAC10 without having to carry the 4 ratings disaster schools (Cal, Stanford, OSt &WSt).
  19. This guy died. I mention it here because we were discussing him on this thread about a month ago
  20. Kinda like referring to Stillwater as Dowisetrepla
  21. A great thing about conference TV deals is that they always have stipulations about every team gets a certain number of good time slots. So TV ratings disaters like Northwestern, Rutgers & Maryland get some exposure. Iowa, which is 8th or 9th ratings wise knows that with the arrival of USC & UCLA, that they will be pushed to the 11 spot in the pecking order and would drop even further if OUW were added. The PAC10 has 4 teams that are ratings disasters. (OST, WST, CAL, STAN) Rumors this week make it sound like NO normal linear carrier is bidding on PAC10 Tier 1 rights. By not bidding ESPN increases the chances of a PAC10 collapse. This would spur the 6 gravy PAC10 teams to join the NEW12. ESPN has the rights to the Big12. ESPN wouldn't have to find good time slots for Cal, Stan, OSt & Wst if the PAC collapses.
  22. Obviously he can't MATH. Together USC and UCLA will host nine East Block conference games a year. So there are five BIG schools that won't travel to California in any particular season. Being one of the five schools that doesn't travel west would be a slight advantage. If you add OUW then the west coast schools will host a combined total of 14 East Block schools meaning each east block school will make ONE and only one west coast trip in a season and nobody has the advantage of avoiding the stress of traveling to California.
  23. When the Big12 added Cincy, UCF, BYU & UH the national perception is they were really good additions for the BIG12. Cincy had recently been in the playoffs, UCF had that undefeated season a while back, BYU is the best all white team around and the average Joe in America thinks that UH delivers the CFB market in Houston. (The average Joe doesn't know that UH is the #4 CFB team in Houston) So what is the national perception of SDSU? Does the average Joe know their stadium only seats 33,000 and would be the smallest in the Big12 by 7,000? Does SDSU get a bump for their recent deep March Madness success? Is the only SDSU football player you can name Marshall Faulk circa 1993? Does the average American know that San Diego is a city and not a state? If the PAC10 doesn't lose any more schools, then is the New12 better off with its current membership? Yormark, who is the best commissioner in the CFB wants PTZ teams in the conference and if we can't steal any PAC schools I think he will go for SDSU and Fresno.
  24. If the Pac12 gets a good enough deal and OUW do NOT get a BIG invite, then they will NOT expand! Such a TV deal would have to be a 6 year 1.8 billion dollar contract. Which is 30mi a year per school, but only if they stay at 10 schools. So if they stay together they add nobody. Adding SDSU or Fresno or SMU dilutes the pay out and increases the infighting over the limited available linear exposure. Does that mean SDSU is off to the Big12? Not if the PAC collapses. If OUW get their wedding invitation then they are gone. Or if the best new deal is lousy then there may 6 PAC schools in line to come to the BIG12. So SDSU's only route to the BIG12 is if the PAC stays together. So if the Pac collapses the BIG12 ends up with 4-6 PAC schools then SDSU gets in to some third rate version of the PAC12 with OST, WST, CAL, STAN, FresnoSt and 4 to 6 more schools wanting to make what is now a vertical move. So the SDSU AD is correct. They either end up as the 13th team in the BIG12 or as a team the PAC12. A sad third rate version of what they have now. Such a revamped version of the PAC12 would be as big of a ratings blunder as putting Conan Obrien on the Tonight Show.
×
×
  • Create New...