Jump to content

sushihorn

Full Members
  • Posts

    2944
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7

Posts posted by sushihorn

  1. 14 minutes ago, JLake said:

    No need to hold your breath pal. Rome Odunze took a giant leap and was a Belitnikoff finalist and had better stats than Harrison Jr. Michael Penix was second in the Heisman voting and our OL are finalists for the Joe Moore award. 

    Not even close. Odunze had normal improvement. He was all PAC-12 and led the conference in receiving yards in 2022. He got some All-America mention last year and a lot this year. That’s no close to the leap Sweat made. He wasn’t even 3rd team all conference in 2022 and he’s the best DL in FBS now, not just a finalist. Sweat started MUCH lower than Idunze and rose to higher highs. 

  2. 2 hours ago, JLake said:

    (Sweat, Ewers, Worthy, Murphy etc). Didn’t all those guys play in the Alamo Bowl that we beat you all in pretty comfortably? I get that players get better YOY but that works for both teams.

     

    So your thesis is that a guy who was honorable mention all Big 12 in 2022 merely “got better” to become a consensus all American, Outland Trophy winner and Big 12 defensive PoY. Tell me which UW player improved enough to make that “work for both teams?”

    i’ll wait but I won’t hold my breath. Your thesis is provably crap. Several Texas players have taken quantum leaps this year. Ewers completed under 60% in 2022. He jumped to 70% year. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  3. I should have posted the roster early. The comments about not being able to drive block anyone using Inside Zone would be much more obvious. 
     

    I almost pity that Center. A 275 pound RS Freshman trying to get off a good snap then having to block an All-American NT has a really tough job. I expect he will need guard help a large majority of the snaps. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. 2 hours ago, Atticus said:

    How do their OL pressure numbers compare nationally and maybe against our schedule?

    Just watching some UW games, I think Penix is very very good in the pocket.

    They are average in stopping pressure: 35 QBH surrendered vs 55 hurries inflicted by the Texas D. UW is good at preventing pressure from becoming sacks. Penix’ pocket presence is part of that. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. 9 minutes ago, Modessit said:

    I just want to know one thing that I haven't seen yet - how is Penix when it comes to scrambling? Gabriel running is what got ou down the field quickly to take the lead at the end. Milroe had some big runs against us and his running has been big for Bama the rest of the season.

    If he's not a threat to break off a big run every once in a while, they're toast. Looking at the 2 Oregon games, he didn't run for shit. If we don't have to waste a spy for him, it should help in other ways

    Not much of a running threat, especially after 2 ACL surgeries. He can pick up short yardage if you don’t account for him but he’s not going to break a long run. Also, Penix is central to the offense and I doubt DeBoer would risk him. 

  6. 2 hours ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

    Alex Dunlap - Remember the Alamo Bowl

      Reveal hidden contents

    Clearly, Washington has a very good football team.

    In fact, recently, the Athletic (subscription required) was asked to rank the Top 5 NFL prospects on each of the four CFP teams, and in listing out the those top 5 the Huskies are looking to send to the league in 2024, the list didn't even get to star QB and Heisman Trophy finalist Michael Penix Jr. They have some players, for sure.

    And they had those same players when Texas faced them in the Alamo Bowl last year. Yes, they've clearly all gotten a year of seasoning, and are a year better now than the Texas players who played in that game were a year ago. However, the difference between 2022 Washington and 2023 Washington is nowhere near the difference between 2022 Texas and 2023 Texas. You have to watch the game back to remind yourself of what a difference a year makes.

    So, let's Remember the Alamo (Bowl) for a minute. These are the ways Texas is different in 2023 than it was in the 2022 Alamo Bowl:

    - Xavier Worthy had a broken hand and played horribly. Worthy had one drop on a deep ball that was so egregious that Sark elected to go back to him again on the very next play (because surely he'd never drop two in a row like that) and sure enough, the second drop was even worse than the first. Xavier Worthy may have had a hiccup or two this season, but these two consecutive pass plays are worse than any of them individually. Two totally wasted dimes by Ewers. That doesn't happen in the 2023 season.

    - Keilan Robinson was somehow forced into a lead back role. Just miserable. Texas may be without Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson in 2023 but they were also without those guys in the Alamo Bowl. Even Jonathan Brooks was still extremely limited with the sports hernia. To say Robinson couldn't get anything going would be an understatement. The run game was non-existent and made Texas completely one dimensional, even against a run-front that wasn't all that imposing. To think that UW will as easily shut down CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and a lightning-strike change-of-pace (his proper role) in Keilan Robinson running behind a much-improved OL just because they limited Texas to 51 team rushing yards last year would be delusional and cockamamie.

    - Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey filled in for Demarvion Overshown. Texas won't have any issues with players sitting out the final game of the season this year. You don't opt out when going for a championship. Take this into consideration: Anthony Hill is already better (at the very least, MUCH more efficient) than Demarvion Overshown was as a senior. That is not to diss Overshown, that is just to put things in context. Overshown played 653 snaps last year and generated 8.57% of the team's production (once every 8.01 snaps). And while Hill didn't play near as many snaps this season as Overshown did last (429), he had 7.72% of the production on a much better defense, and did so with much more efficiency per-snap (once every 6.24 snaps). We all know that Tucker-Dorsey is a downgrade from Overshown, and considering that Overshown can be argued to be a downgrade from Hill, well ....

    - Jake Majors played miserably. Just miserable. Say what you will about Majors' career at Texas but this year, he's been good. Period. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone fails at times, even the best of the best, but when we boil it all down, Majors was more than just fine in 2023, he was actually good. He allowed disruption only once every 31.7 snaps on the season. He's one of the offense's most improved players. In the Alamo Bowl, he allowed 2 run-stuffs, one TFL and one QB pressure on 64 total snaps, good for once every 16. Majors has not played a game that bad since that very day.

    - Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy had no connection. They aren't exactly Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley with their 2023 connection, so it's not exactly an epic mind-meld where they are finishing each other's sentences, but man ... you really have to go back and watch to remember how off the page these two were with each other that season. It's frustrating to watch back even now.

    - The special teams play was sloppy. A busted protection package leading to a blocked punt. Jordan Whittington ran into the kicker. Keilan Robinson wasn't able to pin UW deep on a punt he should have downed at the one. An onside kick attempt that never had a chance. Can you think back on the 2023 season and conjure up a game that had so many missteps on special teams? In fact, the special teams (especially as Texas has begun to peak late in the season) have been a feather in this team's cap if nothing else.

    - The RG position was in flux. It doesn't matter how coaches spin player rotations, you don't rotate in average players for awesome players. You don't even rotate in average players for pretty good players. Last year, both Cole Hutson and DJ Campbell were not even in that pretty good-category yet and they rotated all game as Hutson was returning from injury. While DJC has had his ups and downs this season, the highs have been terrific and so such rotation will be occurring this year.

    - Casey Cain was the leading receiver and alpha at the X. Guys like Savion Red and Brennen Thompson were actually contributors at WR. Yes, Cain was only the leading receiver because he caught a useless last-second hail mary from Ewers as time expired but that isn't the point. The point is, do you see a difference between Adonai Mitchell, Johntay Cook and Deandre Moore and Casey Cain (transferring), Thompson (already transferred out) and Red (had to change positions)?

    - Zero pass rush. Nothing against Ovie Oghuofo, but he brought zero in the pass-rush department in this game and the team simply didn't get the same pressure last year as it did in 2023 on the whole. In the Alamo Bowl, Oghuofo had 3 assisted tackles on 67 total snaps. Not an ounce of pressure from Oghuofo (and not much from anyone else, either), as had been the case all season. Does that sound like an average 2023 game to you?

    - Unbelievably miserable run fits from the defensive line (and linebackers). This was the most galling to me. Just the piss-poor pad level. It happened through the game, but this is the run that really cemented in my mind just how far this team has come with it's run fits:



    If you can't easily see what was so bad about this play, I broke it down in detail yesterday here on "Football with Friends" on the Orangebloods YouTube Channel. The clip below will take you directly to that discussion.



    If anyone tells you this game is surely going to be a repeat of 2022, they may be right.

    But the one thing you'll know for certain is that they haven't been paying attention.

    His point about Ovie reminds me: Burke is one of the guys recovering from injury. There may be a bump in play coming from him between that and rest to recover from being tired as a first year starter. If we get Bama Burke that would be huge. Though it's also possible he doesn't even play much if we end up in the Blackwell dime a bunch.

    Someone that knows more about scheme can answer this: what impact does EDGE play have on OL shifts? It's been discussed that UW will shift the OL and roll Penix out but I would think that can be countered if a DE can get upfield and set the edge. I also wonder if we see some return of the nickel and corner blitz (not that we ever really abandoned them) for a similar reason. In which case I wonder if we see some Burke in the Blackwell package since he can drop. 

    With UW, it’s usually a half-roll to move the pocket and confuse the pass rush’s aiming point. Penix is at his best in the pocket and I’ve seen very few plays that looked designed to have him throw on the run. 

  7. So how does this play out when matched up against the Texas front? I don’t think we will get consistent pressure when rushing Penix, certainly not early pressure when rushing 4. But I think the Texas pass rush can cause problems by denying Penix the ability to step up in the pocket and the time to go deep.

    The style matchup in the running game is a very bad one for the Huskies’ OL. They couldn’t drive block weaker fronts; don’t expect them to do that to Texas. As for the pulling guards, you defeat that by holding the edge and creating a traffic jam. That forces the play wide where speed matters and pursuit can clean it up. Or the RB can look for a cutback lane against the interior DL. Good luck with that when one man is blocking back on our DTs. Lol

    Oregon played a lot of 3 man fronts, asking a LB 4-5 yards off the ball to hold the edge. They gave up a soft corner by scheme. Texas rarely uses a 3 man front and usually only on obvious passing downs. Even against Tech’s empty set, Texas used 3 DL plus a stand up edge at the LOS. No soft corners here. 

    • Hook 'Em 8
    • Like 1
  8. 5 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

    Out of all this talk about Washington, I’m not reading much about their line play on either side of the ball. Texas can help out its secondary if it can control the line of scrimmage with just 4.  Penix and this unstoppable offense looked pretty average in more than a few games this year.
     

    And we’re supposed to ignore the fact that they had something like 8 one score games? Ask the Vikings how well that worked out for them in last year’s playoffs against the Giants

    O-Line for UW is strong in pass pro, mobile for screen game and pulling but not much as drive blockers in the running game. DL can mostly hold their ground and absorb blocks to let the LBs stay clean. One dangerous edge rusher. I think Texas should win most of the line battles and could dominate the LOS. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  9. 1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

    3) Deboer is a dogshit recruiter. It's kind of stunning. You guys have every right to be fired up about the guy, but wake the rest of us up if he's in the playoffs between 2024 and 2027 at UW.

    Maybe by comparison to the other CFP HCs, he’s not a strong recruiter but I think you’re overstating the case. The one full recruiting class was ranked about where UW has been forever. 

  10. 44 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

    Offensively, Washington and Texas are very similar. Both are big play offenses. Both are reliant on the passing game. Washington pass game is almost a perfect barbell. They throw a ton short and long. 

    The two teams get there in very different ways. Washington completes a lot of deep and intermediate passes, often to covered WRs. Texas throws mostly short: behind the LOS and within 10 yards of it. The speed creates a ton of YAC. Ewers has really improved at quick recognition and hitting moving receivers in stride so they can leverage defenders’ angles. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. 3 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

    I think Oregon was favored by 10 over UW because the computers liked Oregon's record more (esp against common opponents).  

    Oregon beat Cal by 17 more points than UW did, they beat ASU by 28 more more points; they beat oregon state by 22 more points, they beat wazzu by 12 more points. Utah by 19 more points, and stanford by 27 more points (quick maths there, so I may be off). 

    It's possible that key UW players were sick for the ASU/Cal/Wazzu/Oregon st./Utah/Stanford games.  Or the weather played a factor when UW played those teams but not when Oregon did.  Maybe UW tends to play down to its competition. Idk.  In any event, I think the margin-of-victory disparity against those teams is why the computers (and Vegas and human voters) liked Oregon so much.  It's also why the CFP committee had Oregon ahead of Texas for so long (that and Nix's dazzling completion %age)

    It's also possible that Oregon beats up on less athletic teams, but loses their big competitive advantage when they play equally athletic teams.  That's my pet theory and explains why Oregon was in a dogfight against UW in both games.  Also explains why the one common opponent UW and Oregon beat by the ~ same margin (USC) was full of athletes.   (It's also why I only looked at top competition when trying to match up UW's record this season vs Texas'.)

    FWIW, my terrible take is that UW is the most well-rounded team in the playoffs this year.  What I mean by that is even though they may not have super athletes everywhere, they don't have any glaring weaknesses.  It's harder to find a weakness or obvious potential issue with UW the way you can with UM, UT, or Bama.  On top of that, I think this is a great year for UW, because even though they are probably the least athletic team of the 3, IMO there's no obvious juggernaut team that completely outclasses UW's athletes in 1-2 phases of the game.  My gut is  - if a team beats UW convincingly (aside from turnovers, luck, etc), it's because they have some talent differential here or there and they are able to exploit it in a way that disrupts what UW tries to do on offense or allows them to break a few homerun plays against UW's defense.   (in a way that oregon couldn't).   but i don't really know shit, so....

    UW played defense to limit big plays in the conference CCG. That was also true to an extent when the played the Ducks and Beavers during the regular season. Inge played a more aggressive defense in the Apple Cup against a less talented WSU. 

  12. 5 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

    I'm a husky fan that does not wear rose colored glasses, and wanted to provide my honest husky perspective.  

    ESPN has Texas at about 70% win probability vs 30% Washington.

    And it's easy to see why:

    •     Texas has much better talent overall
      •     Texas recruits at top 10 level every year, sometimes top 5
      •     Washington recruits at a top 25-35 level
    •     Texas has way more depth
      •     Which is why UW struggled against weak teams.  They were sick and injured 
      •     If someone gets injured, Texas has 4 and 5 star players waiting in the wings, UW doesn't

    Sark was easily our 2nd best recruiter this century.  Neuheisel recruited at a top 15 level.  Sark recruited at a top 15-25 level.  Chris Petersen recruited at a top 25-35 level.  We are just never going to compete for top 5 classes.   Unless Deboer wins a few national championships in a row.

    Texas has a huge advantage on paper due to athletes on the team.  

    The ONLY thing that Husky fans can truly pin their hopes on is this:  Under Deboer, the Huskies are 9-0 against top 25 teams.  And he's doing this with talent level outside of the top 25.  They are 3-0 vs Oregon who has top 5-10 talent.  UW really has no business beating that team.  

    So Deboer and staff must be outcoaching a lot of their opponents with great gameplans and schemes.  Sark basically won 7-8 games per year with us and slightly better talent overall than what this coaching staff is working with now.  

    But Sark has become a great coach since he left Washington too.  So 70-30 still seems about right to me and therefore I feel the line is about right.  Vegas thought the talent difference between Oregon and UW was worth 9.5 points.   

    UO and Texas compete for the same athletes each year and are about equal in terms of talent on their rosters.  So I guess Vegas is finally giving a little respect to UW now, since they're now only 4 point underdogs haha.  

    First, welcome to surly.

    A lot of us are jaded on the issue of recruiting talent - legacy of Mack Brown. I find that data useful but limited. The rankings are based largely on measurables and statistical performance against overmatched HS kids.

    When I look at what makes Washington go, measurables are important but far from a complete explanation. The outside receivers are the strength of the offense. They get credit for talent for their size and strength. But in terms of effectiveness, I think the catch radius, ability to recognize the coverage and find the gaps, making the catch by beating a defender and being on the same page as their QB are collectively more important. Size and strength are easy to measure. The other factors are not. If those factors are more important, any discussion of talent misses much of the point. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  13. 2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    their concepts are more pro style/west coast. They do a lot of stuff similar to us with motions. 

    They remind me a lot of those old Lloyd Carr Michigan teams with a superior QB and more limited running game. I’ve seen comparisons to Air Coryell and those also seem apt. Pro style offense for sure and they take more deep shots than almost anyone I’ve seen in FBS. 

×
×
  • Create New...