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sushihorn

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Posts posted by sushihorn

  1. Sadly, aggy may be the best - or at least the most talented team to face Bama to date.  By week 7 of the CFB season that "grueling $EC schedule" will have featured a gauntlet to shame the Bataan Death March:

    Duke, NM State, USCe, Southern Miss, Ole Miss are the new Murders' Row which validates Tide greatness when they go undefeated against it.  I give them the benefit of the doubt since they've been consistently good for a decade.  OTOH this year's team hasn't proven anything against anyone.  I could see aggy giving them a challenge for a half before the adrenaline runs out.

    • Like 1
  2. 10 minutes ago, Leanderman said:

    gomers just here to inflate bamas ratings for two more weeks. Then gomers will drop out of the ratings to be replaced by another weak ass $EC Team who is still on Bama's schedule once aggy are no longer needed for hype purposes..

     

    • Like 1
  3. Listening to the halftime show on Fox.  One of the commentators pulls out the comment about how much better OU's defense is this year and how they are averaging 14 PPG less than last year.  I'm just not seeing it so I pull up the stats.  Sure enough they looked pretty good on D during their non-conference schedule last year too. 

    2018: UCLA - 21 points, Army - 21, FAU -14

    2019: UCLA - 14, S. Dakota - 14 and Houston - 31

    OU's defense actually looked better in 2018 and went on to give up 40+ in 6 games.  They might be better this year but you really can't see it from the early season stats when comparing apples to apples.  Unfortunately Tech probably won't be much of a test either on that side of the ball.  They're playing better D the last couple of seasons but their offense is a mess.

  4. 20 minutes ago, texifornia said:

    Duke is 2-1 (Held Bama off for a half before getting shithoused, beat two cupcakes), VaTech is the worst 2-1 you'll ever see (lost to BC before their reckoning with Kansas, baaarely beat ODU and Furman). 

    Feel the excitement of the clear undercard before AZ State - Cal in #Pac12AfterDark

    Duke-cheerleaders-467899930.jpg

     

    Looks like she has a shot at the podium if she can just nail the triple-triple combination in the long program...

  5. 3 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

    There is an aggy anthropology professor who is obsessed with aggy's cult of ancestor worship regarding racist murderer Sul Ross, so he photographs their offerings to the statue of racist murderer Sul Ross during every semester (their tradition is that leaving money helps on tests, somehow). This morning, he commented on the frequency with which Subway cards are now appearing. This seems like a very aggy way to update to the 21st century.

     

    Su-Subway.jpg

    Cargo Cult on the Brazos

    Last spasm of prosperity dates to the same period and just as likely to return.

  6. Quote

    Early developments have been mostly positive for a Texas team that voters liked a lot more than analytics. Longhorns running backs are generating efficiency, and they're benefitting even further from the emergence of a ridiculously efficient receiver in Devin Duvernay (87% catch rate, 67% success rate). UT is also getting a massive big-play boost from sophomore wideout Brennan Eagles (10 catches, 276 yards, four TDs). This has created a far greater level of offensive consistency, and it has helped Texas to play well as a favorite as well as an underdog.

    Like most Fantasy Football guys, Connelly over-focuses on the eligible players on offense and almost completely ignores OL play.  I suspect that's because there aren't many stats to measure the success of the line except indirectly.  So it's a stat geek version of the drunk looking for his keys under the same streetlamp because that's where the light is.

    I'm sure he's undervaluing the Offensive Line.  If the logical conclusions from that hold, it's pretty clear why he can't correctly value Tom Herman teams.  He's looking at skill position production as a partial proxy for something he can't measure (OL effectiveness).  But because he can't (or at least won't) separate line yards from RB yards he simplistically attributes 100% of the yardage to the back.  Thus the loss of a plurality of Texas' running game "production" with the departure of Tre Watson from 2018.  That type of assessment is always going to undervalue a rising program and especially one driven by large improvements in the play of the O-Line.

    His system completely misses the fact that Texas returned its two best starters (Cosmi and Shack).  It doesn't account for adding a GT all-conference Guard.  And it cannot see (more excusably) the value of a RS freshman breaking out at the other Guard position - just like it missed Cosmi doing the same at Tackle last season.  Connelly's code sees "2 returning starters" not 4 veterans (all 4 good and 2 great) and one young beast.

    The systemic flaw here is Billy's inability to measure something critical and the refusal to admit that it is is critical.  That arrogance is compounded by incorrectly attributing most of that critical factor to a result, not a cause (RB yardage).  It is further aggravated by assuming that the OL blocking which constitutes so much of that production leaves with the runner.  To top it all off, he uses only the crudest measure of OL quality which leads to wildly inaccurate conclusions with coaching staffs that have a history of producing high-quality OL regularly and especially when they are starting from a low base from which major improvement is likely each year for some time.  Connelly's model works fine for steady state programs where the future looks pretty much like the past.  Where there is a significant change from year to year his model will always be behind the informed humans that actually watch the game.

    • Like 2
  7. 1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

    Fuck no. You don’t move Duvernay out of H no matter what else happens. 

    Exactly.  You want Sam's safety net in position to make adjustments to the blitz with a hot route and burn the D for it.  They are so much in synch right now you'd think their dads were college roommates or something...

  8. 1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

    Someone hasn’t watched this Serbian’s Film

    If they'd watched film, they wouldn't have to ask where the bodies are buried.  Obviously the answer is "across the LOS from Karic."

    • Like 4
  9. 3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

    We had seven years of championships with LSU Florida Auburn and Bama winning.  Point me to a conference with four National champs in forty years, let alone less than a decade.   I get that the SEC knob jobbing is annoying, and false.  But nobody else has come close to dominating the game as the SEC has in modern memory, so there will be some bullshit puffery and biased SEC promoting from ESPN.  No question.   

    You don't have to like it, but you can't point to another conference that has accomplished near the achievements of the SEC in the last fifteen years.   Sucks, but whatchagonnado?

     

    Let's bring this back to the original point of the thread.  Do you not see the obvious correlation between having a conference full of doormats in reality combined with media hype to hide that weakness and the ability to get SELECTED to play for those titles?

    The good SEC teams have 3-4 automatic wins OOC and 6-7 auto wins in conference.  Look at Georgia this year.  ND was the only possible OOC loss.  Unless Florida is much better than they've shown to date, Auburn will be Georgia's only real challenge before the CCG and they will make the SEC championship even if they lose that game.  They are essentially guaranteed 11 wins and in the regular season and a spot in the CCG at this point with 8 games still to be played.

    In the Big XII there are a bunch of outstanding coaches that can make their 2nd tier talent into truly dangerous and occasionally dominant teams.  See Patterson at TCU and Gundy at OSU for longstanding examples.  ISU's Matt Campbell is headed in that same direction.  3 of the 1st year coaches have come from hugely over-achieving programs at lower levels.  KSU got Kleiman from ND State.  Tech hired Wells from Utah State and WVU got the coach who beat LSU while at Troy.

    In the past, Texas and OU have had to face the likes of Leach at Tech, Art Briles at Baylor and the Purple Wizard at Kansas State.  Where are the comparable coaches at 2nd tier programs in the SEC?  They don't exist because those who become a real threat to the reigning powers get driven out like Huge Freeze at Ole Miss or Hal Mumme at Kentucky - both driven out for "violations" that were and are standard practice throughout the conference.  The message is clear: if you coach at a peasant program and threaten the aristocracy you will be destroyed.  There is a reason that good, ambitious coaches rarely go to designated doormat programs in the SEC and those that do don't stay long enough for the machine to mobilize against them.

    • Like 5
  10. 4 hours ago, markstanco said:

    He's right you know.  Running QBs have never worked out in the SEC.  

    Right Timmy?

    Seriously.  One does not simply run a QB successfully in the SECx3.

    Not unless he has the passing ability of a Nick Fitzgerald to make him a TRUE dual threat anyway...

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2
  11. 9 hours ago, crash_davis said:

    aggy looks exactly like our teams post mack.  shitty oline and shitty qb play will have shitty results on the field.  defense will carry the team for awhile and then it too will start to suck.

    they are going to be in a death spiral for awhile, like we were.

    Jimbo was already early Stage 4 Mack his last year+ at FSU.  He's simply metastasized from Tallahassee to Collie Station.

    • Like 4
    • Haha 1
  12. It appears that Herman and the staff are deliberately limiting the potential of the offense in the name of protecting Sam Ehlinger.  The box score vs Oklahoma State shows Sam with 10 carries but only 4 of those were designed as QB runs or potential runs.  The others were all scrambles from the pocket.  During the first drive Sam ran QB counter.  He later ran a QB draw and one zone read play.  Lastly was the bootleg keeper for the final 1st down that allowed Texas to kill the clock.

    I think the coaches are right to protect Sam since he is the heart of the offense.  I'd still like to see him used as a running threat early in the game.  At least keep the ball in his hands longer at times to force the DBs to turn and run downfield instead of coming up in run support immediately when they see the ball handed off.  By turning almost exclusively to a conventional running game, Texas loses the extra blocker and allows the safeties to have an easier read and less conflict between coverage responsibilities and run support.

    I REALLY hope Mensa makes Sam more of a running threat against OU.  Grinch likes to stem, stunt and slant his front which often leaves seams to be exploited by the running game with quick inside handoffs.  This can be compounded by the base quarters coverage scheme they employ.  It's tough enough to get good run fits with it under ideal conditions because 4 DBs have deep coverage responsibilities.  Get them to turn and run with the WRs and there will be very little support at the 2nd level and almost nothing behind the LBs.

    • Like 2
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