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sushihorn
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Posts posted by sushihorn
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5 minutes ago, immamac said:
Yes - They have 1 way to win and that's it. They have to throw the ball extremely well and make big gains. They cannot grind against Texas it will lose them the game.
It is absolutely necessary that you run for more than 100 to even sniff a chance at winning. There is no way you will be able to complete that many passes in a row and not get off the field without a significant amount of anchoring on the running game. If you go one dimensional Texas will eat you alive or just keep the ball away from you and cause a punt. We make mother fuckers punt a lot and we don't punt all that often.
Washington
38-1531 54-2328 Texas
36-1591 71-3016 The defensive game plan from last year’s Alamo Bowl would likely work well sine we have the horses to execute it this year. Watching Texas defending 11 personnel with 6 in the box and 4 wide with 5 this year was impressive. To shut down the Doak Walker winner and control Tajh Brooks with those defensive alignments made my day.
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While this topic hasn’t been ignored, the Huskies’ defense is much less discussed than their offense. Let’s start with a summary: UW has some standout athletes on defense but they are getting it done with teamwork and scheme more than with talent. The overall concept is to create doubt and confusion in the mind of opposing players. A lot of effort goes into disguising multiple aspects of the defense. The base scheme is a 4-2 nickel defense.
The secondary disguises coverage with heavy (80-90%) reliance on zone. The exact number is hard to pin down because Morrell often employs pattern matching in his zone schemes. The base seems to be Cover 3 with enough Quarters and man to create doubt. Even in cover 3 the corners can play bail technique to alter the pre snap read. There will be holes in the coverage, UW is hoping to delay the read and recognition long enough for the pass rush to get home. The Dabs tend to be big and physical as there is less need for a boundary CB to cover the best WR all over the field. That has helped create INTs and makes them stronger in run support.
The D-Line plays with 3 down and a stand up rush end most of the time. In pass defense, they almost always rush 4, only rarely bringing an extra man. They are disciplined in their rush lanes but play a lot of games to create free rushers. Lots of stunting and looping to confuse locking assignments. Ditto with fake pressures. Sometimes they insert a LB and zone drop a DL but they bring 5+ less than 10% of the time. The games mean early pass rush is not very effective and the long path to the QB means stunting free runners lead to delayed pressure. The disguised coverage on the back end is designed to help this delayed rush get to the QB. But they only have 19 sacks despite having an NFL quality DE.
The LBs hold this system together. Inge asks a lot of them but the DL play is designed to keep them clean on most plays. Against the run, the line is supposed to absorb blocks and let the LBs pursue the ball. One of them will have force responsibility and RB coverage to the non-nickel side. They will be challenged to force on outside runs, cover inside short zones and fill against inside runs. A see a lot of swing passes and RPO in their future.
Note: This is just a basic overview to start the conversation. I’m sure some of our more informed posters can help fill in the details.
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19 minutes ago, troph said:
But the failure to really see any analysis on Washington's defense against Texas' offense is a real head scratcher.
Challenge accepted.
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Washington is the 3rd most penalized team in FBS at 73.9 yards per game. Texas is average in penalties at 51.1 YPG. I’m surprised that a well coached team draws so many flags.
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19 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:
Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.
Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"
The top back for Alabama averaged over 16 YPC in 2022. He only got the ball 6 times.
We had no idea what to expect last year’s bowl. The core of our offense was ripped out and the defense damaged by opt outs. No one had seen such a weak Texas squad play in any game of the 2022 season. This year no one is opting out nor does the offense need to be totally restructured. Barring major injuries in practice, we will likely see the full strength version of regular season Texas. That’s why I limit my speculation to demonstrated range of possibilities.
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1 minute ago, Huskyfan1997 said:
Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?
Only reason I'm asking is because I just rewatched the Michigan State game and Chris Simms said MSU told him going into that game that they felt they could bully us on the lines. That is a recurring theme amongst all our opponents, no matter how bad they are (and MSU was awful). They all think they will push around our lines. 35-0, Penix with 375 yards passing and 4 TD ... at halftime vs a Power 5 school. MSU had to be one of the worst teams around and even they thought they could beat us in the trenches. UW/Pac-12 line play must have the worst reputation nationwide.
Please don't take this a trash talking. Just genuinely curious as to how big that assumption is to your confidence level in winning the game. There is no doubt that it is very possible that UT could bully us in the trenches.
We are not responsible for the delusional fan bases of terrible teams.
Texas has the best interior DL in FBS and it’s not close. The last 100 yard rusher against us was 12 games ago. Alabama couldn’t do it. The Doak Walker winner went 2.6 yards per carry. It’s the strongest and most reliable element on a top team.
It’s kinda like asking what would happen if Penix completed less than half his passes, except much less likely since he already did that this season.
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46 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
In trying to review their games, one thing that stuck out to me is that while Washington receivers are really good at making contested catches, they don't seem to get a lot of YACs. McMillan appears to be the primary YAC guy. But their offense in general doesn't so much create space for receivers as it creates one on one matchups where they win the jump ball. Just a really different style than our offense.
Their 2 outside guys have size, strength and hands as their primary advantages. I want to say they go 6’3” 215 and 6’2” 205 or something like that. They are going to muscle DBs, shield a defender off with their bodies and get most of the jump balls. They aren’t usually going to out quick as CB or juke a safety. They are more likely to head fake then run through an arm and shoulder for a few extra yards than they are to make a defender miss completely.
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This is another under covered aspect of the Texas-Washington match up.
Kickoffs: Both teams are right around 50% touchbacks. Will Stone gets 1.1 yards extra distance vs Washington’s Grady Gross. Texas has kicked 1 out of bounds and Washington 2. Texas covers KOs decently at 19.8 per return. Washington does it very well at 15.8 per.
Texas has the more dangerous return team at 21.0 yards per attempt with a TD. Washington is close at 20.8 yards per return but has not scored.
Punting: Washington’s punter, Jack McCallister averages 41.4 yards per punt, 39.5 net vs 45.5 and and 40.7 net for Ryan Sanborn. Both punters excel at pinning the opposing offens with 13 inside the 20 yard line vs 2 touchbacks for Sanborn and 11 i20 to 1 TB for McCallister. Both punter have been blocked once in 2023.
Washington is excellent in punt coverage, while Texas may have the most dangerous return man in college football. The Horns have solid coverage at 6.2 yards per return. The Huskies have posted a truly impressive 1.8 yard average. UW sports 10.8 yards per punt return by committee with 1 TD. Texas replies with Xavier Worthy: a TD and 17.9 yard average. Washington punting to Worthy will be strength on strength.
Field Goal Kicking: looks like a big advantage for Texas. Washington has a decent kicker; Gross also handles KOs. He is 13 of 17, 76.5% accurate as a FG kicker. His longest was 47 yards and he has not attempted anything longer than that. 8 of 11 inside 40 yards is okay but would make me nervous as a coach. He has also been blocked once.
Texas’ Bert Auburn is 28 of 34 or 82.4% accurate, despite 4 attempts from longer than 50 yards. He is nearly automatic inside of 40 at 17 of 18. Auburn has excellent range with a long of 54 yards and no blocked kicks.
Overall: Texas has the advantage here - mainly on Auburn’s leg. The Longhorn advantage in the return game is cancelled out by Washington’s superior coverage teams. There is a moderate Texas edge at punter. Sanborn can uncork a big one to change field position. He has 13 punts of 50+ yards vs 4 for McCallister. Washington is a team that reached the CFP mainly due to coaching and they stand out in the team aspects of Special Teams play, just as I would expect.
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My main concern with the Washington O-Line is their mobility in the screen game. That matches their strength to get in the right position and covers a weakness by not putting them directly against opposing DL. And Grubb runs a lot of screens.
They will be most dangerous in tunnel screen. RB screens have a lower success rate against Texas this year as they are often sniffed out by our veteran DL or blown up with quick pressure. OL of course don’t have that much impact on WR bubble screens. But the tunnel screen brings the play inside and the designated OL can get upfield to their assignments quickly.
Tunnel screen also schemes against a penetrating, aggressive DL by attacking the space they would occupy at the LOS if they stayed home. That fits the Texas DL to a T. The D-Line literally have trouble seeing this one coming as the screen WR is not in their primary field of vision. Combine the quality of the Washington WRs with the mobility of their OL and Tunnel screen has potential for a big play against this defense.
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2 minutes ago, MikeDamone said:
Texas and Oregon fans have a lot in common.
We are both irritated by brainless morons from Seattle.
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15 minutes ago, TexasEd said:This is going to be simple. Texas beats previously undefeated Washington in the first round and previously undefeated Michigan in the second round is the first team in playoff history to beat all 3 of the other teams in the playoffs, crowned NC and the only undefeated team left in the country is FSU of they can win their game.
So basically the same thing that the ladies just did in Volleyball.
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37 minutes ago, MikeDamone said:
You sound like Oregon fans before the Pac-12 championship game.
Your fixation with Oregon is duly noted. The relevance to TEXAS is unclear.
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1 hour ago, Hank_Hill said:
Yea. It’s interesting that they think their interior line is going to shit on our “Fat NT” that won the national award for interior line play even though none of their players were even finalists.
Of course they’re too stupid to realize that Sweat is a 3-technique DT or what that means.
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1 hour ago, BigDickNick said:2. Offensive Line. We average a weight of 332 across the line, and they are ready to dominate the line of scrimmage. Roger Rosegarden, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Center, Ossai, Big "Orange Julius" Buelow. These boys have an attitude and are ready to rumble!!!
This is bad info. No one on the roster named Ossai. 2 Polynesians you forgot to mention. Average weight is more like 306. When you screw up this badly, everything you say deserves to be ignored.
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1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:
Love the athletics support from the president.
I haven’t seen a reply like that since Miss Oregon was named PoY.
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1 minute ago, troph said:
You only have one eye?
I traded
the other one for wisdom.
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1 hour ago, troph said:
To be fair Texas had some 3rd quarter disappearing acts as well. We can leave out the games Ewers was hurt but he starts like OU or if Texas gets a lead and goes into prevent offense and defense mode in the third quarter and Texas is in deep doo doo.
That is true but those games were a while ago and the issues seem to have been addressed. Washington has played poorly on very recent games, but that has been obscured by a good performance in the Pac12 championship. Those of us who watch a lot of football with an analytical eye haven’t overlooked the way UW ended their regular season.
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8 hours ago, JLake said:
That is like me taking your shittiest most injured performance of the season and saying that is how you will play in the CFP. We would blow you out as well. More likely we will see the best versions of each team and will be a great game.
The UW team that showed up for 2 of your last 3 games would get destroyed by Texas. The ones that played Utah, Arizona and Stanford would definitely lose though not as badly. Washington played well against Oregon and the very weakest teams on their schedule.
Washington’s best two games this year would make them competitive in the Sugar Bowl. Anything less than their very best and they will need a lot of help to win.
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4 minutes ago, JLake said:
Are you really arguing that a big 12 is better than pac 12 this year?
It’s just weird how UW fans want to divert the topic to conferences when it’s clear that Texas had the tougher schedule than Washington. This keeps happening; I assume they don’t like the direct comparison and derail the process to generalities.
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14 minutes ago, JLake said:
No need to hold your breath pal. Rome Odunze took a giant leap and was a Belitnikoff finalist and had better stats than Harrison Jr. Michael Penix was second in the Heisman voting and our OL are finalists for the Joe Moore award.
Not even close. Odunze had normal improvement. He was all PAC-12 and led the conference in receiving yards in 2022. He got some All-America mention last year and a lot this year. That’s no close to the leap Sweat made. He wasn’t even 3rd team all conference in 2022 and he’s the best DL in FBS now, not just a finalist. Sweat started MUCH lower than Idunze and rose to higher highs.
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2 hours ago, JLake said:
(Sweat, Ewers, Worthy, Murphy etc). Didn’t all those guys play in the Alamo Bowl that we beat you all in pretty comfortably? I get that players get better YOY but that works for both teams.
So your thesis is that a guy who was honorable mention all Big 12 in 2022 merely “got better” to become a consensus all American, Outland Trophy winner and Big 12 defensive PoY. Tell me which UW player improved enough to make that “work for both teams?”
i’ll wait but I won’t hold my breath. Your thesis is provably crap. Several Texas players have taken quantum leaps this year. Ewers completed under 60% in 2022. He jumped to 70% year.
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Texas 37, UW 26
Dillon Johnson 13 attempts for 41 yards as they are unable to sustain drives running the ball.
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I should have posted the roster early. The comments about not being able to drive block anyone using Inside Zone would be much more obvious.
I almost pity that Center. A 275 pound RS Freshman trying to get off a good snap then having to block an All-American NT has a really tough job. I expect he will need guard help a large majority of the snaps.
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Opponent Analysis: Washington Defense
in Football
Posted
As with any system, the best way to beat it is to wreck key components. There are 2 obvious ways to do that with the UW defense:
1) Buy time for the QB to get a good post-snap read: Quinn has accelerated his reads so this will come quicker this season Buy time by moving the pocket, sprint out or bootlegging - especially since Ewers is an effective runner as well as accurate passer on the move. Keep in extra blockers with a delayed release once the LBs get deep into their drops.
or
2) Exploit the holes created by attempts to disguise the pass rush: Run outside zone to wash down any DL slanting to an outside gap and block the man who is taking his initial gap assignment while he’s moving laterally. RPO the LBs when they show early pressure to interior line gaps. Let them have fun running back to their underneath responsibilities on inside breaking short routes. Bring crossers in case the use split coverage.