
sushihorn
-
Posts
2944 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
7
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Store
Downloads
Recruiting - 2020
2019-2020 Football Season
Football
Entertainment
Sports
News and Business
Cloak Room
Transfer Portal
Recruiting
Events
Posts posted by sushihorn
-
-
3 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:
It seems Dems are crushing the mail-in vote in PA and elsewhere. Then I keep hearing that the Rs are keeping pace or even leading with early in-person voting. So is the partisan discrepancy more between mail vs. in-person than it is early vs. Election Day?
Where that discrepancy lies will be the difference between a close race and Harris blowing Trump out a la Fetterman - Oz.
Mail in skews D and IPEV skews R everywhere I’ve seen. Historically, ED skews R relative to EV. We’re seeing voter behavior change this cycle so there’s little basis to determine how much of the R strength in EV reflects turnout of low propensity and new voter vs time shift of existing voters that will cannibalize ED turnout to a large degree. The NV blog posted stuff tonight suggesting there is a big partisan gap in turnout by the low propensity vote. OTOH the pro GOP EV gap did shrink a bit today.
-
2
-
-
14 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:
I know it’s been touched on, but someone remind me why I can ignore the alarm bells being raised by Ralston in NV.
It represents 20% cumulative turnout. We are analyzing the data we have, not a complete data set or even a representative sample, not yet.
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, aggie08 said:
Anyone know the historical gender trend of early voting? Is it like shopping for Christmas? Women are finished by Black Friday; men start thinking about it on Dec 23rd?
Overall vote trends female, EV even more so. This year’s EV shows a female bias but less so than historically. This seems to be true across a wide swath of states.
-
1
-
-
52 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
This is all of my instinct as well. You can't get up for this election versus 2020? Fuck you, Harris County (I live in Harris County).
If you use 2020 as a baseline for turnout, you will be very disappointed. Without mass mail balloting, turnout is down pretty much everywhere. Here in Texas, that is less of a factor since we didn’t get elevated numbers from mail but return to normal early voting will have an impact here
What we are seeing is depressed urban turnout, which reflects national trends. Target Smart has our early vote as 32% rural, 37% suburban and 31% urban. By comparison, the 2020 early vote 13 days out was 21% rural, 35% suburban and 44% urban. That’s an 11 point shift from urban to rural, with another 3 points bleeding to the suburbs.
A swing state example: the early electorate in NC is 6.6% more rural than in 2020. Two thirds of that is at the expense of the cities. That same trend in NV is driving the wild EV numbers out of that state.
-
Bama still hasn’t figured out the delayed blitz.
-
7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
Michigan’s O line looks quite good. JJ McCarthy is not their faultI don’t know about good but better than Bama for sure. I’m probably overreacting to the offensive shot show.
-
Just now, burntorangebongos said:
Why is Michigan throwing it at all?
Neither team is passing effectively. D-Lines are legit. O-Lines, not so much.
-
48 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:
Well, I can't believe I'm posting this, because after A&M had one the most embarrassing season in college football HISTORY, Florida State University may have TOPPED them in the stupid and embarrassing department!
- Whining that they got left out of the CFP playoff
- Threatening to sue the NCAA
- Having state politicians promising state money if they wanted to sue (that's a good use of public money in a state with low education levels)
- Suing their conference to break away without any landing place but will cost them untold millions
- Claiming they had "no choice" but to sue
- Having their coach ill-prepare them for their bowl game
- Having an untold number of player opt out
- Suffering from the ALL-TIME WORST LOSS BOWL GAME - 60 points!!!!!
- Having their coach claim that they are a championship team AFTER suffering the worst bowl loss of all time
Unlike FSU, Pussy is still undefeated.
-
2
-
Michigan shutout of Iowa looks much more impressive now. 😂🤣
-
15 minutes ago, F250 said:
How did a creation science diploma mill make it to a New Years bowl game? This isn't even a real university.
As a diploma mill, I don’t think it’s any worse than OU or Mississippi State. I realize that’s a low bar but…
-
28 minutes ago, ApocalypseTexas said:
There is nothing greater than reading about ou fans complaining about current legal roster contacts, and payments, that they did when it was illegal, but now that it is legal…. they are unable to compete!!!!
Organizations built to operate under Black Market conditions rarely maintain their position as that market sector is legalized. Free markets require very different skill sets.
-
5
-
-
23 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:
Wasn't everything?
Except maybe internet access.
Bush. And I don’t mean the president.
no CR
-
28 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:
Are these done on offense and defense too. Great write up
I focused on UW in the other write ups since I’m writing for Texas fans and figure that most of us know our own team::
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, alphahydro said:
I think a lot rests on the Texas LBers to shore up the run-alternatives in the short/screen game. I'm sure the UW coaching staff spent a lot of time trying to scheme up a run/short passing game using motion/redirection/shifts to get the right matchups and leverage against the Texas edge/slot DB and LB. UW did an excellent job last year (against a different Texas lineup), and it was a huge factor in the outcome. If the UW RB are breaking tackles tomorrow, it's partly because they are good players and partly because their OC did a great job in getting them matchups and angles. (Of course some of this depends on the Texas gameplan and how Texas adjusts over the course of the game). Frankly, not knowing much, I'd probably do what Texas did last year and devote less resources to the short game and hope for the best (at least as my "base" strategy).
2) Will the athleticism and size of Texas make a significant difference in the game? This especially relates to #1. If UW goes with what worked in the pac 12 this season (or what worked in the Alamo bowl), it may not work in the Sugar Bowl, because the leverage that works against smaller, slower teams may not work against this Texas team. It's what Oregon always discovers when they play better teams. I don't think it's a matter of being pac12 soft. UW is a very physical, scrappy bunch on both sides of the ball. It's more about team speed (and size) of the opposing defense. If Texas' athleticism allows it to handle short/underneath stuff with fewer resources (using some dime, dropping nickle into coverage etc) because the solutions that worked for UW all year don't work against Texas, it will allow Texas to devote extra resources to the pass at low cost.
Similarly, how will the depth and quality of the Texas DL factor into this game? I think you can put this into 3 categories: 1) it won't matter; UW will move the pocket, get the ball out quickly, and scheme the run game away from the interior DL. 2) it will matter indirectly. The UT DL won't dominate in a way you can see, but their efforts will severely limit what plays UW can run successfully; UW will be running a limited playbook, which will allow Texas to devote extra resources to the plays UW can run. 3) massive pressure up the middle all game. And we all know Penix is a different QB if you can get pressure with 4. The extremes of 3 and 1 are not super likely, but 1 is more likely early in the game and 3 is more likely toward the end of the game, imo, given Texas' depth. But we don't really know how this is going to play out because UW didn't play UCLA this year, and a lot of this depends on flow of the game, who scores early, etc.
I don’t see UW having any consistent running between the tackles. Their off tackle runs are going to require their OL to get good movement against our edges and combo up to the LBs. If our play side DE and LB can force the run wide, I like the odds of pursuit and safety support stopping Johnson from turning the corner. Remember Reggie Bush bounced stuff outside and turned it up for big gains all season in 2005. When he faced the speed of Texas he couldn’t do that and Lendale White became the bigger threat. I expect that sort of effect if our defensive front can avoid giving UW a soft corner in the run game.
-
39 minutes ago, troph said:
Dunno. But analogous to a salary cap. With real enforcement.
Salary caps can only exist under a true cartel arrangement. Those arrangements are only possible in pro sports because the league structures sit above the teams and have special antitrust exemptions granted by Congress.
1) The big boys of CFB aren’t going to let anyone dictate to them, much less impose parity.
2) The NCAA created NIL to organize a system that already existed as a Black Market. It’s recognition of reality rather than an exercise of power.
3) Lack of parity is one of the things that makes college sports so great. Low expectations and high upside incentivize Have Not programs to take risks. Think 1970s BYU, Air Raid at Kentucky and Texas Tech or the Spread rushing attack at WVU.
-
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:
A thought : who’s going to be the first school to try to go all in with the saudis ?
ncaa championships across all sports
I wish this was a complete joke but FSU is already talking about private equity partnerships. Foreign sovereign wealth funds is a short step from there.
-
1
-
1
-
-
I know it’s Vance Bedford but there’s some good Xs and Os here:
-
9 hours ago, DixonHur said:
Most of their "playmakers" played last night too...they had a good year, but they are not a good team. Not worried about them at all.
My stepdad, who died earlier in the year, was a Mizzou grad, and a close friend's daughter started there this year, so I was rooting for them, but as much as I want them to be good (as long as they are not playing Texas), they just aren't.
It’s a return to their glory days of the Chase Daniels years. 😂
-
38 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:
And for all the hype about how their passing game is bad matchup for our secondary ... go look at Penix's game log. If you take out the games where they ran up the score on a terrible OOC schedule, his last 10 games of the year against Pac 12 opponents was good but not great. This was his stat line in those 10 games:
223/353 (63%), 2,886 YDS, 21 TDS, 8 INTS, 146.9 QB Rating
Ewers actually has better numbers against real opponents than Penix. In 9 games against P5 opponents (the 8 games Big 12 games that Ewers played in, plus the Alabama game) here is Quinn's stat line:
218/300 (73%), 2,770 YDS, 16 TDS, 6 INTS, 163.8 QB Rating
Half the board was bitching about him until the Big 12 Championship Game, and yet we're supposed to be scared of the guy who was markedly worse against Pac 12 teams? The guy who, btw, despite supposed 1st round hype from the Mel Kipers of the world, is still in college for year 6 instead of the NFL?
Quinn is definitely underrated as a passer but he’s not better than Penix. The Longhorn receivers’ superpower is YAC and our coaching staff creates a lot of favorable matchups and coverage busts. So Ewers gets a lot of receiver running (especially screens) tacked on and easy pitch and catch to wide open men. Penix gets help from his guys but he’s having to get the ball downfield with high accuracy just to create the jump ball situations.
-
3
-
2
-
-
7 hours ago, Juicy said:
LOL.
The reason Michigan is the number one D in the country is their DL. Saying that their line is slow is like saying Texas has shitty DTs. It’s just not true.They are statistically #1 after facing dog crap offenses week after week. Michigan has a good defense that looks other worldly against their schedule. We can all point to very low scoring offenses on your slate. Tell me how great the top 3 offenses are that Michigan has faced.
Mizzou held the Buckeyes down more effectively. Ole Miss was mot quite as good vs Pedo State. But those are the statistical comps vs your best opponents.
-
1
-
-
Haven’t seen a televised pounding like this since Oz went off the air.
-
FSU defense started with a bang before opting out.
-
1
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Texzilla58 said:
Literally every Aggy said they’d take over the SEC like they were fucking Patton thru North Africa…They’ve been fighting Kasserine Pass over and over since then…
-
1
-
-
37 minutes ago, Juicy said:
Michigans front may be slow?
I swear the shit some of you say makes me wonder if you actually watch football.Did you watch your own video? The guy gets pushed towards the runner by the block while the RB is stumbling. DTs need to be explosive and this dude takes 4-5 steps to really get going, even with a push start in the right direction from the OL. I’d hate to see how slow he would be if forced to change direction or accelerate on his own. USEFUL Speed for linemen is measured in the first few steps, not at the end of a 40 yard dash.
Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab
in Cloak Room
Posted
Bama, if your theory is correct you should be looking at changes in party registration for clues on how the new voters will trend. The moves in party affiliation is one thing that has Ralston concerned in NV. IIRC correctly, Washoe County (Reno) went from 50/50 to R+4 or 5 since 2020.