https://www.threads.net/@krundt/post/DAydPw6o08Q?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w
A message from Kenneth Gregg in Ukraine: (1/8) "Today I want to focus the economic front in russia, because this year they are spending 41% of the budget on the army and the FSB. This has major consequences on the economy and it is approaching the same figures as the Soviet Union had before the economic collapse.
A state that has a war economy and spends 41% on the war effort has a maximum of three years before everything collapses. +
2:"We should remember that 'Ivan' has a high pain threshold as long as it does not affect himself, but we are almost there. Of course, the russian economy is growing because the army is ordering new equipment and supplies such as food and diesel. In addition, there is a labor shortage which in turn drives up wages significantly. At the same time, 'Ivan' has to compete with the army for food and diesel, which have now risen by 30% since 2022. What is the concrete result of this? +
3:"The inflation will rise explosively. As export revenues fall, more rubles must be printed to finance army purchases.
Russia will spend USD 145 billion on the military and the FSB during 2025, while Ukraine will spend USD 54 billion of its own funds and two times more of donated funds from allies. What is the difference in how the economy reacts? The russian system is to be financed by own resources, and when they are not enough, more rubles are printed, which in turn feeds inflation. +
4:"Ukraine spends its own capital in line with a balanced state budget and receives two times more capital from outside, which does NOT hit the economy as hard as the russians.Let's have a quick look at US defense spending INCLUDING Ukraine aid. They spend 916 billion USD, which is 3.4% of GDP, russians spend 8.4% of their GDP. The US spends in USD 8 times more than russians but it is only 3.4% of GDP. Poland spends 3.4% and Finland 2.4%. +
5:"August inflation in russia was 9.1% and the central bank took all artificial measures to stop hyperinflation. They did a good job but the core problem remains: the government cannot stop spending.
Let me illustrate the problem with a simple example: The russian state increases the number of soldiers, they have to eat so the state goes to the food distributors to buy the rations and transport to the front. Because we have sanctions, the russians have a shortage of eggs, for example. +
6:"When the state buys lots of food rations, these are lost for the civilian population and prices rise. When we have a labor shortage, wages are driven up, which means that the state must also increase the monthly payments to its soldiers. During the winter, things get even more precarious and at best inflation remains at 15%, at worst it is over 20%. No economy in the world can cope with this. If inflation were to rise to 9% in the US, we would have unprecedented riots. +
7:"Putin is not stupid, he obviously realizes this as do the oligarchs. What he wants now is success in Donetsk and a ceasefire to counter the threat to himself when hyperinflation sets in. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, inflation in the new russia was 2000% on an annual basis. Whatever dictator you are, it will be your downfall when people have to carry a van full of notes to go to the shop and buy bread. +
8:"In addition, when calculating the GDP, you have to take into account the population decline of several million, so in fact the russian GDP has decreased significantly compared to normal conditions. Everyone, including the opponents of Ukrainian aid, agrees that the economy is what decides the war. Ukraine is in a better economic position than the russians because we get external help. Keep this up and the russians will have to end the war in 2025, giving us the victory we so need." END
https://www.threads.net/@jasonmcgruder1999/post/DAyn7jgyNn7?xmt=AQGzBGPG01QTnJ3WqyhFBsPsSVsKxjaSjs7AJVuBIjBh5w
Oil and gas prices aren’t helping.