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Gaffords

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Posts posted by Gaffords

  1. 6 hours ago, closetohumping said:

    image.thumb.png.3af8ce11f09875423d1a35342a2186e5.png

    The only reason aggy isn't great is because of tu...

    You gotta love the Great Sip Conspiracy...   

    I wonder what gems we would have if the internet has been around from aggy's birth.

    JFK?  

    Kept aggy from not being first on the moon?

    aggy not part of the Manhattan project?

    Manhattan project not code named something aggy related (list too long to type)?

    I wonder if the tu conspiracy carries over to the afterlife?  Saint Peter probably doesn't even argue anymore...  "Yep, the Sips fucked you good here too.  They bought heaven 115 years ago. It's out of my hands..."

     

     

     

     

     

     

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  2. 8 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

    The problem is the PAC12 generally only has 1 single game worth a damn each week and that’s WITH USC/UCLA included. Both ESPN and Amazon want that game if they are going to be in business with the PAC12, but most don’t see it as all that valuable. Amazon could sub license an ACC game from ESPN for far cheaper than $30 million a year per school, but they want a “big” game each week.

    Excluding USCvUCLA (since that will be a Big Ten game) here was where the top PAC12 conference games landed starting week 13 back to week 4 (the * denote games that included USC or UCLA, BOLD denotes game was on FOX, Underlined denotes game was on ESPN)

    8 on ABC,8,4,8*,9*,7*,4*,7*,9*,9

    So ESPN had some PAC12 last year and only put 1 game on ABC, all other were in the ESPN late window. FOX had the best inventory but despite the huge advantage of being OTA they only landed 2 top 5 games (USC/Utah, UO/UW) and the others lucky enough to get on FOX ended up being the lowest rated OTA college football games of the week losing out to games on cable.

    So yeah, ESPN wants the top game of the PAC. Which means 2-3 times a year they’ll get a game worthy of prime time ABC but most of the time it will go to ESPN main in the late window.

    Getting 2 football games a week for ESPN is worth about $200 million a year or $20 million per school which is about what their rumored offer was.

    So just to recap: the PAC12’s benefit of the LA schools pumping up their numbers has transferred to the Big Ten, and the benefit of being OTA on FOX pumping up their numbers has fully transferred to the Big12 (since B1G negotiated exclusive OTA agreements with CBS/NBC), and their exclusive P5 late night window that boosted rating is being targeted by the Big12. With those advantages the PAC12 averages around the 8th best game on any given week. Take away those advantages and the PAC12 likely won’t have many top 10 games, much less top 5.

    I just don’t see how staying in the PAC12 is a good long term option, because the next contract will be worse than this one once you take away everything that was inflating the PAC12’s house of cards.

    This...

    I don't see them getting what the Big 12 did, but even if they did, I'm curious to see if Oregon and Washington will sign a long term grant of rights...  I can see them signing up to 5 years, but if I were a corner school, I'd have to do some major soul searching on whether to do this song and dance all over again in 5 years knowing that it's likely Wash/Duck are gone...  

    "Hey there Big 12, good buddy, long time no see. I'm ready for that invite now. Mind sending it over?

    Who is this?  Ummm, oh yeah I remember you, it took a second there...  Well, about that. We've gone in a different direction from way back when.  Damn, if you had called me a year or two ago, i could've helped you out.  It's good to hear from you again. Sorry I can't help you out right now, but if something comes up, I'll keep you in mind. I'm kinda busy right now, so I've got to run. I'll call you one of these days when I have a little time. 

    Bye. 

    • Haha 1
  3. 39 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    CBS paid the SEC $55 million a year for the game of the week. Obviously they lowballed the SEC, but they promoted the shit out of those games. 
     

    I think the ESPN can offer the PAC the same deal on top of their Apple deal. Maybe they give the Mouse second pick every week. $5.5 million per game for 10 games, 9 conference and 1 good home OOC game.

    I think PAC late night game of the week is the right approach for ESPN. Everyone is happy. ESPN exercises fiscal responsibility. The PAC gets a decent chunk of change and avoids national irrelevancy. And the gamblers/drunks/surly posters/football junkies get a half assed game to watch at 930 PM EST. 
     

    Would I watch watch SMU at SDSU at 1030 PM CST? Yes, yes I would. 


    As a football junkie, I love niche games. That was ESPN’s thing before they blew up. I miss the Big East Thursday night games. Throw the game on, tap the keg, and start the weekend. 

    There's one major problem with that...

    Let's say a miracle happened, ESPN and Amazon or Apple woke up one morning feeling generous and decided to save the PAC. Each one buys the rights to one game a week for a staggering deal where each PAC school pockets 40 million dollars a year...  

    Sounds good and all, but it isn't. There are two components that are equally important to the schools.  Money and exposure.  Then talk shows mostly go on about the money.  But most reports that come out are about schools not being onboard with 95% of their content being solely in streaming services...

    Their  own fan base doesn't care about their product as is, so how many fans in other parts of the country is going to pay for Amazon Prime or Apple just for PAC 12 football.  

    The streaming only concern came out in the early stages of the negotiations. Things have gotten much worse since.  

    There isn't nor has there been any negotiations in about a month between any of the parties. ESPN and Amazon put their final amount on the table and has said take it or leave it. Each one wants 1 game a week  Apple isn't up bidding.  FOX/CBS/NBC are all a hard pass. 

    The only reason Universities have sports is for exposure. The list of schools who break even (or better) without handouts, is very small. 

    So the bulk of PAC content untouched/unaired, is practically SMU's death sentence. 

  4. 18 hours ago, bullet said:

    I think they are pretty sure they get one in 2030 if not soon.  So I think they would prefer to stay put if its not awful.  And they can veto any big exit fee.

    Waiting until 2030? That is borderline retarded...  Why would the corners hang around for 5-10 million less a year (assumed), knowing this is coming. And even more so, why would anyone those six decide to continue playing musical chairs knowing that around 2030, the number of chairs remaining stay the same, but the players on the field practically double...

    2030 is close enough to the end of the ACC contract for those schools to become quite attractive.  Washington and Oregon will have some stiff competition for a B1G invite especially after 7 years of playing in an irrelevant PAC, and some of the ACC schools probably have more appeal already than the zona schools or Colorado (or a faded Utah that's as relevant as Boise St is today.  It would make more since for the Big 12 to expand East when the ACC becomes unstable, than to circle back around for the corners in 2030.  At least they do watch football in the East.  

    Yes it would leave BYU on an island still, but it isn't like they aren't used to it.  In fact, they'll probably prefer it.  With the PAC lacking exposure, BYU will probably end up sitting on a recruiting goldmine. 

    I don't know.  For Washington and Oregon It's a gamble either way.. jump now or take your chances in 2030...  but for the other PAC schools?  You aren't going to the B1G nor the SEC, and there isn't any magic fairy dust out there that's saving the PAC long term.  The Big 12 already snagged the best of the G5s with any recent consistency competing with the big boys.

    Jump now or compete later on against VT-GT-NCST-ect...  I think we all know that there's going to be 3 conferences at the end.  2 power and 1 that is made up of passed overs... There is going to be lot more players than spots, and several schools are going to be left to fend for themselves. 

    Those who already have their seat will keep their seats until they vacate it willfully, whose left without, well... If this PAC thing hasn't taught them that there's not going to be any free handouts by the networks just because they want to swim in the deep end, then they should all burn their degrees and start flipping burgers with the rest of "us".

     

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  5. On 3/10/2023 at 7:46 AM, Crockett said:

    Utah's whole identity is the P12 and that they have been a "peer" of Stanford, Cal, UCLA, UW, etc. When they got into the P12 you saw P12 stickers on cars all over the place. Driving from Utah County (where Provo is located) north to the neighboring Salt Lake County with Salt Lake City in it, there was a billboard placed just inside the county line stating "Welcome to P12 country". 

    This is a very confusing and scary time for Utah, so be patient with them as they process the stages of grief. 

     

    To quote a Utah upper management guy, "Give me a break"...

    I'm pretty sure that Oregon and Washington know whether they have a B1G invite coming or not.  The GOR will be revealing (if they get anywhere in the ballpark of the  BIG 12). 

    If they know they aren't on the B1G's A list, they are likely to both snag a BIG 12 spot the day the PACs 22 million deal breaks, leaving 2 of the corners standing there with their thumbs up their ass..

    Oregon and Washington both like their football more than they do rubbing shoulders with Stanford...

    They will be the first to cut their losses and salvage the most they can from a bad situation. 

     

     

  6. 4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

    My guess is that the final media offer is going to be meh and they will implement unequal revenue sharing to keep the band together for a shorter reup.

    While I think that it makes more sense for all of CFB longterm to see the P12 go the way of the dodo, the ones looking to get left out will make it very hard politically (not just state level politics but national level academic and grant funding leverage) for any one team to make the move. 


    If I was Cal or OSU or WSU I am doing everything I can to keep my spot at the big boy table.

    I have limited faith that the four corners will make the move and separate from the California market without another catalyst to close the deal. The loss of USC and UCLA hurts the brand, but is that enough to convince a total upheaval and move on?

     

    So the real question will be what is the difference between meh and time to move on? What is the real floor? How willing are some of these school to debase themselves and take a significantly smaller part of the pie? How much less than what a B12 total future annual payout would be would the four corner schools be willing to agree on to not be know as the school that killed the P12?

    Part of the problem is the comcast mess, which hampers cash flow, the P12 overinflated operating costs, and the money pit that is the P12 network. How much can they legitimately scrape together and how in the world do you convince OU and UW to sign a GOR to be able to cement any offer? No one is going to pay without one and any short term deal with a GOR won’t pay anything like a mid or longterm deal… 

     

    I would love to see the 4 corners bail, but I am losing faith that any individual school has the balls to be the first one gone to start the dominoes rolling.

    Utah isn't even the captain, but seem to be determined to go down with the ship. 

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  7. 1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

    If the SEC goes to 24 then basketball will be a focus and FSU and Clemson are crucial as they’d give you 10 major brands that have BCS/CFP championships and will offset the other adds.

    Fb adds - FSU, Clemson
    Market/bb adds - UNC, UVA
    Bb adds - Kansas, Duke
    Wildcards - 2 (assuming Miami would make the cut if not already in the B1G to keep them out of Florida, and maybe VT for the same reason)

    In don't think markets are the driving force behind realignment these days.  In fact whoever it was from ESPN blatantly stated it about matchups nowadays. 

    The numbers I've seen floating around on sports talk is games that break the 4 million viewer mark, and UNC football and basketball combined don't scratch that. If this is true, it explains why Oregon and Washington are still sitting where they are.  They hardly ever get those numbers.  Not even when they play each other.  

    The two main conference networks seem to be satisfied with their footprint and are now focusing on the national audience and those sweet advertising dollars.  

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  8. 17 hours ago, Armybrat said:

    An English friend who is totally unaware of the joke that is aggy cultism just sent me this meme…

     

    70E750F6-E959-4FB1-9269-190D63132A12.jpeg

    If all male cheerleaders they call milkmen left any doubt, this takes care of it...

    aggy is determined to burn everything good in this world to the ground.  Next they will "fix"  spandex and yoga pants.

    If ancient aliens built the pyramids overnight, levitating all the stones into place, i wonder what they would charge to come back and levitate collie town and relocate it to Antarctica... or the bottom the Pacific overnight!? 

  9. 1 hour ago, bullet said:

    They really do think they are the western version of Michigan in both academics and football despite their 45k seat stadium.

    It's the funniest thing ever to hear the Utah blowhards rattle off about the big 12's shitty academics, how they don't belong in the Big 12 and there's no way they would ever join the Big 12... 

    As if they are Stanford or something.  The dumbasses don't even realize they would be around 4th in the Big 12 after we leave.  

    The majority of sites don't even have them in the top 100 (105th).

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  10. 5 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Yeah, i don't even think B1G money is enough.   Florida will make about $450m more than FSU over 13 years.   FSU is looking at $470m in a GoR PLUS $120m buyout.  There just isn't a number big enough to make it make sense until 2036.

    They are making noise for something, and it isn't to try and bully the ACC into more money.  The ACC schools are well aware FSU is tied to them for 13 years, if they like it not not.  Just like they are aware that FSU will bolt after if there is an opening somewhere for them, no matter how unequal the revenue they get.  So why give them more of the pie now when they are leaving anyways.  The ACC can't give Clemson and FSU (and UNC.. ECT) enough money to get them within the same universe as the power two, and those schools aren't wanting Big 12 money either. 

    I feel there's more to the story  than just noise..  

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  11. 21 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    No, the GoR basically means you gave your rights to someone at a price you agreed to.   This is FSU's self created mess.   If they didn't like it, they shouldn't have signed.

    I wonder if a school could force a court ordered settlement if they paid their 120 million exit fee and offered to pay say 17 million a year, the established value the conference has assigned them, so they could go make 60 Million plus in another conference, banking on the real difference in money will be from the number of schools the other conference will average getting into the playoffs and National championships those teams will win. 

    It isn't idea, but it will keep them closer in the money than riding out the next 13 years in their current situation, and it puts them in preferred seating now instead of playing musical death match chairs a decade plus plus from now. 

  12. 22 hours ago, mdmost said:

    And lolz at FSU. You're going to spend 120 million you don't have to get out of the ACC when the SEC really doesn't need you and I guess the Big 10 could take you but they'd prefer UNC and Virginia. 

    Bottom line to all schools, don't sign a GOR

     

    I'm curious why FSU decided to do this during l a public venue. These things are disgusted behind closed doors to avoid beating your fan base into a frenzy. Even if it were directed at the conference, it would have been handled behind closed doors...

    The only time these things have been done publicly before is when schools were on their way out.  Corn, aggy, Mizzou, even OU when it tried to bolt to the PAC.

    Im not saying FSU has a foot out already, but there is something going on and this was a deliberate move by FSU to galvanize it's fan base for something. 

  13. 8 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

     

    All these leaks have to be coming from the PAC's head office.  If he hadn't made a two day visit to SMU that included a very public appearance, not to mention allowing SDSU to put the word out they expect an invite any day now, I would think they were coming from Oregon or Washington, but these are starting to feel like desperation to drum up any interest in the PAC's rights.

    I think it's about time to put a fork in them

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  14. 5 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

    I'm assuming the ACC is based in North Carolina, which would mean there is diversity of parties, so the lawsuit would definitely end up in Federal Court regardless.

    The purpose of a Grant of Rights is to avoid issues like sovereign immunity.  Florida State already gave their TV rights to the ACC - they no longer have those rights.  If FSU leaves the ACC and goes to another conference, the rights stay with the ACC and the ACC would be the ones with the rights to broadcast FSU home games.  FSU would have to sue to try to get those rights back, which would make sovereign immunity mute, because they would be the ones bringing a lawsuit.

    Now in practice, who knows what would happen if FSU threw caution to the wind, left the ACC and joined another conference, and tried to broadcast the games through that conference's TV deal.  My guess is it would never happen because that conference would not want to get involved in a dispute like that.  This is the reason that the SEC was all 2025 is great until Texas negotiated their way out of the GOR a year early.  

    Now, with the fiasco that's going on out west, does the ACC decide to play ball with ESPN and workout some sort of deal to let a select few teams move out at a reasonable price? Or find themselves willing to risk what their value will look like in 2036 when these teams bail anyways and no one is all that interested in your rights ..

    I could see ESPN reworking the contract for a little more money and a shorter term IF they believe the real money is in moving some of the ACC teams into the SEC. 

  15. 9 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    yeah I'd likely go... 12 (16)

    North: WSU, Boise, OSU, CSU, Fresno, Cal (Wyoming, Nevada)

    South: Stanford, SDSU, UNLV. Air Force, New Mexico, SMU (Utah State, Tulsa)

    Stanford stuck in that conference would be the funniest thing to ever happen in college sports. 

    • Haha 2
  16. It's kinda comical to watch different shows coming out of Pac territory.

    They cannot fathom a world in which the networks would consider the Big 12 more valuable than the PAC. it's 30 seconds of sports comparisons before before it turne into PAC vs big 12 academics. Which leads into no school would ever leave the PAC for Big 12. Which turns into the PAC will at least get 40 million...  You know, the demand for spelling bees 

    They refuse to bring up the networks spelled out  who is more valuable to them when no one bid on the PAC product.  The value they believed they had is leaving for the Big 10. 

    The lack of exposure in the East had major consequences. The way they handled the almost coup of the Big 12 south division was beyond boneheaded

     

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  17. I would seriously be considering packing up and heading east...

    FOX had no interest in renewing. ESPN is only interested in filling it's 10pm EST slot. CBS and Turner only came for the coffee and donuts. NBC didn't even do that...  I'd say that PAC stocks are in the dirt. 

    Do you stay out west for obviously less money, while using the years you make the playoffs to make up for the exposure Prime isn't going to get you?

    Or do you head east for more money and the amount exposure that playing in timezones where college football is relevant will get you? 

    Bringing in SMU and SDSU doesn't fix the lack of interest in the Pac, any more than one game against SMU (for some) help with getting you exposure.

    I wonder if Amazon really understands college football fans? I don't know what kinds of returns Amazon is banking on, but I have a suspicion it's going to fall way short, and this will be yet another Prime project that cost them millions...  Well they probably won't lost money, because it's going to go for clearance prices... 

     

     

     

     

     

     

  18. 7 hours ago, Crockett said:

    Is your burdened, broken-down example supposed to represent UT? I had no idea it's been so hard for you. My deepest sympathies.  

    I can't wait to see all of you sitting on each other's coattails, wondering why the gravy train ain't moving...

    No, the Big 12 members did step up after aggy left.  That one got their attention, but the writing was on the wall, and neither OU or Texas could let the money divide keep getting wider. Texas probably would've set right a little longer, but OU couldn't afford to. Which at that time, Texas couldn't afford to have lost both aggy and OU....  The benefits of moving outweighed those of staying. 

     

  19. 6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    I mean I guess we will see but you expect them to say yeah we canceled cause they are going to be in conference come 2025 season?

    I know Oregon and Washington both want the BUG, but I think things will cool down until the ACC contract is close to ending then then endgame begins.. I think ESPN wants some teams from there in the PAC,. And I believe the big 10 probably has their eyes on a couple...

    ESPN knows the PAC is fucked so they arent going to give away money for rights that will be theirs in the Big 12 before long anyways

  20. 3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

     

    No there isn't anyone left. ESPN is looking for some top games in the west to air after the eastern and central games are done... They know no one watches those late games, but they get watched by more people than. 4 hours straight of game recaps do...  So they aren't going to up their offer because they see the games as fillers and no one else is bidding... 

    I don't think anyone was really ever bidding against Amazon, so for this still not to be done points to major issues with the money.  They are not getting anywhere near the other conferences...  No commissioner has ever gone to a school to personally recruit them.  None have stepped foot on a none member's campus before, saving that for the press release with new members...

    One would think it would be SMU doing the work.  Instead, it's been the opposite.  That doesn't bode well for the PAC schools. 

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  21. 3 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    We would be thrilled to be in a position to carry the weight.

    I don't understand this mindset from your fanbase one bit.  I would love it if ISU was the most powerful school in a conference and had to take the silly sniping from the schools down the food chain.

    Probably all of this just boils down to human beings inherently wanting the things they don't have.

    It's not the carrying that gets old, it's when you are already doing 80 percent of the work, while 2/3 of the others there to work are chilling under a tree and haven't moved all day and time is running out to have the job done before it starts cutting into your money because they are fine making enough to keep the lights on and the old lady happy. It's more than they've ever made before, while you are busting your ass because the roof is starting to leak, and the car is on it's last legs...

    When you feel the burden, is when you've hurt your knee and can't get the work done, and that still doesn't light a fire under the others asses. Because there's still guaranteed money coming in for a few more years and Iowa St will be back on it's feet before then...  

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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  22. 2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    When I say rise to the top I mean be a team consistently in the hunt or playing in the big 12 championship, not necessarily winning it every year but the OU run is not common. So I still think BYU and Cincy with improved recruiting in Texas and etc could become even better. So those are my picks for the new schools coming in.

     

    I'm not sure who I would say of the current members would be. Kansas State has a solid coach so it could be them. It's kind of wide open for them. 

    I'm not sure, it will take years before the big 12 shakes out. I think the first thing they will have issues with, will be will take place behind closed doors, among the ADd.  There's always sheep looking for someone else to take the lead and I'm not sure there's a pecking order established yet.  I'm sure there's been some issues we've not heard about yet, nothing major, even though the sheep have been leaderless since 2021, it's just now become official, and are just now starting to relax with the Big 12 out of danger...   The fireworks will happen once they are done patting each other's back for a job well done.  

    The Big 12s had it's foundation shattered before anything was built on it and the first game played. 

  23. 3 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    That's probably not going to happen in the new Big 12, which is why it will be so entertaining.  No school has some massive gap in resources or history over the others that will allow it to have maintain some real power position or run at the top.

    By pushing all of the blue bloods into a couple leagues, you remove the power structures that existed for years.  There's a vacuum, and I think it's far more likely that vacuum fills with ruthless parity rather than some new hegemony.

    Someone will rise to the top eventually, they will never carry the conference.

     

    But that doesn't mean that they won't feel they do.  Let  certain schools go on a good run and make it fat into the playoffs a few times in a decade, and we will see what type of insufferable cunts they become....

     

    And hope it isn't BYU.  Cunts will be a polite way of describing them...  Just think of what it would be like if aggy was still here...  At least BYU will wait until there actually win something

     

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