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blutow

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Posts posted by blutow

  1. 1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    They seem to imply that Texas is going to go in front of Bama. 

    Yeah, the committee has had plenty of chances to jump Alabama over Texas while we were struggling a bit and Bama had some good wins during that stretch.  That isn't 100% guarantee a CCG win over Georgia doesn't tip the scale, but they clearly haven't forgotten about the head to head.  The dialog I've heard consistently that Texas goes in over Bama based on head to head (even from Bama homers), but then in the next sentence they say the SEC champ deserves to go.  Unprecedented conflict, I don't think anyone knows for sure what the committee does with that.  I think Texas is the less controversial pick, but that may not mean anything to the committee

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  2. 2 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    I just have this gut feeling the Cards let us down.

    Either way, I just hope they play a better game than Florida did last week.  FSU tried to lose that game multiple times, but Florida would have no part of it.  That shit was hard to watch.  Undisciplined, stupid football.  I was just thinking how thankful I was Napier isn't our coach.   

  3. 4 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

    I don’t know why people think Louisville winning is so far fetched. They were going to be #9 this week minus the loss. They can beat fsu. 

    It's not crazy (like Iowa over Mich), but still only around ~25% chance based on the odds.  But there is a better chance Bama wins over Georgia.  As much as everyone is doom and gloom, Texas still has a decent shot.  If you believe ESPN's predictor (which looks reasonable to me), we are sitting at about 50/50 shot of making playoffs (near 100% if FSU loses and still a decent shot if Bama wins).  Texas chances are actually not that much lower than Georgia's chances, but Georgia controls their destiny.  

    image.thumb.png.23b68e7e0e499066ab440d815e17d55e.png 

  4. 1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

    If Bama wins and Texas doesn't look anemic in winning, they are both going to the playoffs and Oregon will be holding the bag if FSU wins.

    I was thinking about that angle as well, but I believe the Oregon love is too strong.  I expected them to put tOSU at #5 this week in front of all the one loss teams.  The fact that they elevated Oregon above and kept Texas and Bama below is telling.  If Bama wins, we get the spot (based on head to head) or Bama gets the spot (because Bama/SEC and recency of win over Georgia).  Most of the predictors I've seen basically makes the scenario a coin toss (ie - nobody knows how the committee would deal with it, it's totally unprecedented).  

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  5. Just now, The Dog said:

    We need Bama to lose because if they win in this case then we are out.

    they couldn’t have telegraphed this more - Georgia is in no mattter what. 

    Hard disagree that a Georgia non-champ gets in.  Much more likely that we pass up Bama if they win and get that spot.  Nothing is guaranteed, but the chance of SEC being excluded is much higher than the chance of them putting 2 in with a non-champ.  It's been beat to death in this thread, but all the times a one loss non-champ has made it was when there were no 1 loss champs in play.  

  6. 48 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    What do you mean? We are 4-1 against them all time.

    Yeah, that's great against Georgia, but how has Texas done against the other elite SEC team?  Oh, that's right, we're 8-2-1 against Bama. 

    Ironically, Vandy is the only SEC team that has a good record against Texas.  I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll start chipping into that next year.   

  7. 2 minutes ago, Horndog said:

    Counterpoint to the "Texas was lucky they got Bama early" argument:

    For years we have heard about what a meat grinder the SEC schedule is, how every game is a war, that they need to play a powder puff late in the season to recover from the rigors of the 8- game gauntlet, yada yada.

    It's lucky for Bama that they played us early in the year while they were still fresh and before all the SEC games took their toll. 

    As an outsider, we can't possibly comprehend all the nuances of how hard it is to be an SEC team.  It just means more.  

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  8. I'm honestly surprised how many in the media are saying that FSU should be out while one loss Texas/Bama/Oregon should be in.  I think it's wrong, but I want to believe...  If FSU isn't #4 tonight, they are likely done if they don't look impressive in a win on Saturday.  Besides the "better team" argument, I think the media hates the idea that we might get a "wasted" playoff game where FSU isn't competitive.  I don't know how much the committee has the same mindset, but who the hell wants FSU in at this point over a 1 loss Texas, Bama, or Oregon?

  9. 31 minutes ago, immamac said:

    I still think FSU gets left out even if they are undefeated in the ultimate chaos scenario. 

    There is a lot of chatter in the media saying this would be the solution.  I still think it's a long shot, but it sure solves a lot of potential problems and only screws FSU.  It's all going to come down to where the committee falls on prioritizing best teams vs. deserving teams.   

  10. 2 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

    I still don’t know why they wouldn’t take another look at Oregon Vs Texas. Texas has SOS, SOR, best win of the season ( vs #3 at the time on the road) and better opponent record…. Oh yeah and common opponent not even close. They botched it in the beginning, that’s fine. Just make it right now. Eye test isn’t a determining factor. 

    Because people like that don't like to fall on swords publicly and admit screw ups.  I could never be a politician because I'm the first guy to fall on a sword (even if it isn't mine) if it moves things forward.  If you aren't screwing things up on a regular basis, you aren't trying hard enough.... Most of the committee members are glorified politicians pushing their agendas, there is no performance incentive for them to "get the right teams".  

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  11. 12 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

    No. It’s dumb. This is a HC with 2 years of experience, taking a job at an also-ran in the toughest football conference. 
     

    It’s dumb. 

    OK, but not in the same league of dumb as Jimbo's contract (or Lincoln's).  Elko's an unproven guy.  Maybe the base salary is too high or the term too long, but using incentives is a good way to only pay the guy if he does well.  For me, the dumb contracts in college football are the guaranteed 9+m/year even if you suck. That said, I've got zero background in compensation for football coaches, I have no idea what makes these guys tick.  But I've spent a lot of years around comp plans for sales execs and I don't mind paying them 2x what the CEO makes if he's knocking it out of the park.  And a painless exit plan for non-performers if they can't get done in a reasonable amount of time.  Why it has to be so different for coaches, I don't understand.   

  12. 5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

    As much as I want to believe that this is a $17.5M contract, I think it's this...

    Playoff: +$1M
    Quarters/SEC Champ: +$500k
    Semis: +$500k
    2nd: +$500k
    NC: +$1M

    $7M base
    $10.5M max w/ NC

    Yeah, I don't know.  Even if $17.5m is the payout for an NC year, that's not a dumb number.  Shit like that drives finance people crazy (because it's hard to know what to plan for), but the reality is that will be a very rare year and even if he's winning an NC ever few years that's $ well spent.  It's a way you can convince Elko he's making as much (or more) as the top guys without committing to pay him $10m/year+.  Under that plan, chances are his average annual salary would be well under $10m, even if he's getting into the playoffs frequently.  

  13. The lack of clarifying language on those incentives is surprising.  Maybe this is just the summary and that detail is elsewhere?  Maybe the intent is to only get paid for the highest accomplishment, but it reads as if he gets a 10.5m (cumulative) bonus for winning the national championship.  That's certainly how I'd interpret it if it was my comp plan.  I'd be curious which way it goes.  Honestly, a national championship is probably worth much more than $3.5m (and not likely to be paid frequently if at all), so I suspect it's cumulative.  It doesn't look like a terrible contract, obviously a much better than what they get themselves into with Jimbo.  

  14. 2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

    We're still a flawed team.

    Pretty much all college football teams have flaws and there have been plenty of very flawed teams with national championships.  That's the beauty of college football.  A bunch of 18-22 year old guys are always going to make things a bit unpredictable.  If we get into the playoffs, this team could absolutely get it done.  

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  15. 40 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

    My predictions that no one cares about for Tuesday rankings. 

    1. Mich

    2. UGA

    3. Wash

    4. Oregon

    5. Ohio St

    6. Noles

    7. UT

    8.Bama

    If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend).  I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible.  I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.    

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  16. 12 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

    There's no way to really know the answer for why, but I disagree that the comparison of losses is what put Oregon ahead of us initially. Much more likely IMO is that before the first CFP rankings, we were one week removed from barely beating UH, while Oregon had just crushed a 13th ranked at the time Utah.

    It certainly didn't help.  Agree that the Utah win was a big factor in the initial rankings.  I don't think UH played into it that much, we had just beat BYU pretty convincingly.  But I think the washington vs. OU comparison is fair.  It OU had kept winning and we beat them in CCG, no way would wouldn't have jumped Oregon.  It's already tough to justify Oregon being in front of us as it sits.  

  17. 10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

    Oklahoma's losses are not preventing us from being above Oregon.  Our loss to OU and the shit we kept pulling mid season are.  We needed OU to lose because there was no way of knowing if we would win out to make Big 12 champ game.

    OU losing to Kansas (and almost to UCF) was definitely a factor in Oregon being ranked above us in the initial CFP rankings.  Those initial CFP rankings came out 3 days after OU lost to Kansas.  "Quality of loss" absolutely matters.  If OU had kept rolling and stayed undefeated, our loss would be to a top 4 team and we'd be in front of Oregon right now (if we didn't drop a game).   And we'd have a chance to beat a top 4 undefeated in our CCG.  Basically, the reason Oregon is in front of us (and we don't have a path to jump them) is that Washington kept winning and OU shit the bed.  The only reason we "needed" OU to lose is if we were also planning to lose, which is just pussy perspective.  All the "we'll have scoreboard on OSU" stuff is petty/aggy BS to me.  Would have been so much better to crush an undefeated OU in the CCG and punch our ticket to the playoffs while sending OU home.   

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  18. ESPN is the most SEC biased party out there and even their playoff predictor says it's basically a toss-up if Bama beats Georgia.  Oh, and please stop the talk of a non-champ Georgia/tOSU getting in, the times something like that have happened in the past was a totally different situation where they got in over much less deserving champs compared to this year.  I'm not saying it's zero chance since people are involved and you never know, but that's the least of our worries if FSU doesn't lose.  

    Here's the link to ESPN's predictor, you can quickly lay out any scenario based on this weekend.  I'd debate the exact odds on a few of the scenarios, but all of them seem directionally reasonable.  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    Here's what the ESPN predictor says if Bama, Texas, Oregon, FSU, and Mich win - 

    image.thumb.png.8e3fdbd07a489eaf9e1897172aebeff1.png

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