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blutow

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Posts posted by blutow

  1. 28 minutes ago, Knighthawk said:

    Come Saturday night if it’s Michigan, Fla St, Oregon, Texas and Bama with wins I will take Texas and Bama getting in and Oregon gets left out.    

    I think it's more likely undefeated FSU slides than 1 loss Oregon, but I don't think either is happening in that scenario.  More likely Bama or Texas gets screwed (which I see as a toss up). FSU is the clear outlier in the top 8 after losing their QB.    

  2. 1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

    you get punished severely for the OOC loss and no real benefit if you win.  If I see it actually mean something I'd agree with you.

    Besides the entertainment and $'s associated with a big game early in the season, I think it does make the team better (which hopefully increases the odds of winning the "easier" conference games the rest of the year).  Kids/coaches are more motivated over the spring/summer when you know you have an early game with Bama/Michigan/Etc..  Playing a good team early can also highlight deficiencies that a cupcake may not expose.   With the 12 team playoff, I think these games make more sense going forward than they have historically.  

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  3. 30 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

    Totally agreed. The tOSU ranking is a big big deal being willfully ignored by posters here.  

    The only thing the tOUS ranking indicates is that our chances of jumping champ Oregon are close to zero.  There is no situation where tOSU is still in front of a conference champ on Sunday unless that champ is OKstate, Iowa, or Louisville (none of which will have a playoff spot).  It's just to ensure tOSU gets the spot if all choas breaks loose.     

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  4. 3 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

    Let me guess you are a financial planner? It's not very hard to understand. The teams that are above us emboldens their resume by having a top tier win. The committee has shown this year that they may not drop an unbeaten team for a close loss against a very good team (see Oregon and OSU). Everything else is conjecture. 

    Um no...  The best case for a non-champ (georgia) has already be laid out well earlier in this thread and it's pretty clear there is no case or precedent that would put them in over a Texas, Oregon, Bama.  With a committee making decisions at their whim, I'm not one of the people saying it's not possible, just that the chance of that happening is much smaller than chance of us benefitting from Bama/Oregon winning.  It's been beat to death, but non-champs with same records as champs have never gotten a spot, even when the champ has a much worse resume (which would not be the case if comparing Texas to Georgia or Washington). 

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  5. 2 minutes ago, wood said:

    What did he say? I wasn't able to watch. McElroy seems aight.

    McElroy was basically making the point that it's never been about picking the best 4 teams and he used Ohio state (in a previous year) as an example.  It was beautiful and Galloway about lost his shit.  Best teams vs. deserving teams has always been a weird balancing act and has never been applied consistently.  FSU will likely make it in because they deserve it, but Oregon is getting a boost because they are perceived as a better team than Texas.  

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  6. 1 minute ago, ChickenNuggets said:

    did you read what I wrote? Oregon will have 2 losses at that point, we will jump them if Washington beats them... there's no way 2 pac 12 teams go into the playoffs. 

    The only way your view makes any sense is if you believe that there is a higher probability of a 1 loss non-champ Washington jumping a 1 loss texas champ (basically zero chance) vs.  the probability of 1 loss Texas champ jumping a 1 loss Oregon champ (small, but greater than zero).  Everything is possible with people being involved, but that's a really bad take if that's what you are saying.      

  7. 2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

    So why would you think it's better for Oregon to beat Washington?

    Because there is zero chance of us beating out 13-0 washington for a spot.  It's unlikely at this point we jump 12-1 Oregon based on the committee love for them, but it's a greater than zero chance and an argument could be made.  Oregon winning increases our odds vs Washington winning.  It's pretty simple.  

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  8. As far as game watching - 

    I'll be pulling for Oregon Friday night (even if we don't have a shot at jumping them, I'd rather play them vs. Washington in the playoffs)

    Saturday AM - Pulling for Texas

    Saturday Afternoon - pulling for Bama 

    Saturday Night - Pulling for Louisville and Iowa

    We are way, way overdue for some upsets in these top teams this season.  Odds are very good that at least one will happen.  As long as it's not Washington or OSU, we'll have a shot. There would be nothing sweeter than Iowa over Michigan (a guy can dream).  

     

     

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  9. 1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    They seem to imply that Texas is going to go in front of Bama. 

    Yeah, the committee has had plenty of chances to jump Alabama over Texas while we were struggling a bit and Bama had some good wins during that stretch.  That isn't 100% guarantee a CCG win over Georgia doesn't tip the scale, but they clearly haven't forgotten about the head to head.  The dialog I've heard consistently that Texas goes in over Bama based on head to head (even from Bama homers), but then in the next sentence they say the SEC champ deserves to go.  Unprecedented conflict, I don't think anyone knows for sure what the committee does with that.  I think Texas is the less controversial pick, but that may not mean anything to the committee

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  10. 2 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    I just have this gut feeling the Cards let us down.

    Either way, I just hope they play a better game than Florida did last week.  FSU tried to lose that game multiple times, but Florida would have no part of it.  That shit was hard to watch.  Undisciplined, stupid football.  I was just thinking how thankful I was Napier isn't our coach.   

  11. 4 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

    I don’t know why people think Louisville winning is so far fetched. They were going to be #9 this week minus the loss. They can beat fsu. 

    It's not crazy (like Iowa over Mich), but still only around ~25% chance based on the odds.  But there is a better chance Bama wins over Georgia.  As much as everyone is doom and gloom, Texas still has a decent shot.  If you believe ESPN's predictor (which looks reasonable to me), we are sitting at about 50/50 shot of making playoffs (near 100% if FSU loses and still a decent shot if Bama wins).  Texas chances are actually not that much lower than Georgia's chances, but Georgia controls their destiny.  

    image.thumb.png.23b68e7e0e499066ab440d815e17d55e.png 

  12. 1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

    If Bama wins and Texas doesn't look anemic in winning, they are both going to the playoffs and Oregon will be holding the bag if FSU wins.

    I was thinking about that angle as well, but I believe the Oregon love is too strong.  I expected them to put tOSU at #5 this week in front of all the one loss teams.  The fact that they elevated Oregon above and kept Texas and Bama below is telling.  If Bama wins, we get the spot (based on head to head) or Bama gets the spot (because Bama/SEC and recency of win over Georgia).  Most of the predictors I've seen basically makes the scenario a coin toss (ie - nobody knows how the committee would deal with it, it's totally unprecedented).  

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  13. Just now, The Dog said:

    We need Bama to lose because if they win in this case then we are out.

    they couldn’t have telegraphed this more - Georgia is in no mattter what. 

    Hard disagree that a Georgia non-champ gets in.  Much more likely that we pass up Bama if they win and get that spot.  Nothing is guaranteed, but the chance of SEC being excluded is much higher than the chance of them putting 2 in with a non-champ.  It's been beat to death in this thread, but all the times a one loss non-champ has made it was when there were no 1 loss champs in play.  

  14. 48 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    What do you mean? We are 4-1 against them all time.

    Yeah, that's great against Georgia, but how has Texas done against the other elite SEC team?  Oh, that's right, we're 8-2-1 against Bama. 

    Ironically, Vandy is the only SEC team that has a good record against Texas.  I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll start chipping into that next year.   

  15. 2 minutes ago, Horndog said:

    Counterpoint to the "Texas was lucky they got Bama early" argument:

    For years we have heard about what a meat grinder the SEC schedule is, how every game is a war, that they need to play a powder puff late in the season to recover from the rigors of the 8- game gauntlet, yada yada.

    It's lucky for Bama that they played us early in the year while they were still fresh and before all the SEC games took their toll. 

    As an outsider, we can't possibly comprehend all the nuances of how hard it is to be an SEC team.  It just means more.  

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  16. I'm honestly surprised how many in the media are saying that FSU should be out while one loss Texas/Bama/Oregon should be in.  I think it's wrong, but I want to believe...  If FSU isn't #4 tonight, they are likely done if they don't look impressive in a win on Saturday.  Besides the "better team" argument, I think the media hates the idea that we might get a "wasted" playoff game where FSU isn't competitive.  I don't know how much the committee has the same mindset, but who the hell wants FSU in at this point over a 1 loss Texas, Bama, or Oregon?

  17. 31 minutes ago, immamac said:

    I still think FSU gets left out even if they are undefeated in the ultimate chaos scenario. 

    There is a lot of chatter in the media saying this would be the solution.  I still think it's a long shot, but it sure solves a lot of potential problems and only screws FSU.  It's all going to come down to where the committee falls on prioritizing best teams vs. deserving teams.   

  18. 2 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

    I still don’t know why they wouldn’t take another look at Oregon Vs Texas. Texas has SOS, SOR, best win of the season ( vs #3 at the time on the road) and better opponent record…. Oh yeah and common opponent not even close. They botched it in the beginning, that’s fine. Just make it right now. Eye test isn’t a determining factor. 

    Because people like that don't like to fall on swords publicly and admit screw ups.  I could never be a politician because I'm the first guy to fall on a sword (even if it isn't mine) if it moves things forward.  If you aren't screwing things up on a regular basis, you aren't trying hard enough.... Most of the committee members are glorified politicians pushing their agendas, there is no performance incentive for them to "get the right teams".  

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