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blutow

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Posts posted by blutow

  1. 2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

    So let's not have an argument with Georgia.

    There’s no argument with Georgia if they win today and get a spot.  I’d rather be in an argument with champ bama and non champ Georgia vs not being in the discussion at all.  FSU loss makes it all clean, but we want bama to win so we have other paths other than fsu loss

  2. 1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

    Yep.   Anyone who thinks otherwise is kdding themselves.   The only way I could see UGa not getting in would have been a 3-4 TD loss to Bama.   They lose 24-20 or somethign like that and both UGA and Bama get in ahead of us.   Then we're praying for FSU AND Michigan losses later.  

    Georgia/sec homers and doom and gloom longhorns seem to be the only ones with this perspective.  Chance of Texas getting in w bama win is much higher than non champ Georgia going in in front of Texas.  I’m not saying it’s zero chance of 2 sec teams with dumb ass committee, but I don’t see it and very few are suggesting it in a situation with 5 deserving champs.  

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  3. 2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

    are you sayin bama win OR FSU win?  we don't need both.  FSU win puts us in regardless of what happens in the SEC champ game.

    Bama win or fsu loss and we are probably in.  Definitely in with fsu loss.  Probably in with bama win.  Georgia win just takes a spot and devalues our win over bama, it only hurts Texas chances.  Unless you believe bama and Georgia are both in.  Anything possible with committee, but I haven’t seen anyone propose a non champ Georgia going in over champ Texas.  

  4. 5 minutes ago, Zeus said:

    I hate to break it to you, but it’s actually worse if Bama wins. 
     

    They won’t keep a SEC team out. 
     

    They could put Georgia and Bama over us dude. We play in a shit ass conference that gets zero respect. 

    Pretty much everybody in the media is saying Texas is in with a bama win and fsu win.  Either by excluding bama/sec or putting bama and Texas in and booting fsu.   These aren’t Texas homers, seems like the the most common take.  Unprecedented times.  I’d rather fsu loses and nothing else matters.  Georgia is out if they lose.  

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  5. 3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

    We want Washington to blow then out... makes the committee have to admit that the eyetest without SOS is bullshit, which helps us significantly

    Because Washington's SOS is so good?  If Texas does make it in, I think Oregon is a better matchup.  So I'd rather Oregon win.  But enjoying the beatdown so far.  

  6. The only relevant consideration here for Texas is potential playoff matchup.  This is the only P5 CCG game this weekend where the outcome doesn't measurably affect Texas playoff chances.  PAC 12 winner is 99% in.  That said, I'd rather Texas play Oregon rather than Washington in the playoffs for lots of reasons.  But my attitude for this game is "whatever".  

  7. 1 hour ago, NoName said:

    the clearest path includes Oregon winning.

    The clearest path is FSU (or Mich) losing and then it makes zero difference what the outcome of the PAC12 game is.  You could even argue it's better for Washington to win in that scenario if there were concerns about a another 1 loss team in the mix (even though a 1 loss non-champ would almost certainly be out).   

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  8. 8 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    FSU wasnt one of the four best teams with their QB healthy. I definitely dont think they are even a top 10 team anymore with him out. Maybe #20-25.

    Let's hope Louisville comes in motivated.  I haven't seen them play this year, but they have won some games.  If they win, they will be losing a cut of the $6m conference payout the ACC would have received w/ FSU making the playoffs. 

  9. 3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

     

    I mean, 99% of people, whether on this thread or in media, are saying exactly that—if FSU wins Saturday they are (and should be) in. 

    At the same time, the same 99% of people are saying a.) FSU isn’t one of the 4 best teams with their QB out and b.) they are going to get murdered and a more competitive, deserving team would be better. That doesn’t mean they are saying FSU shouldn’t be in if they win.

     

    Both can be true at the same time. 

    It keeps coming back to "best team" vs. "most deserving team".  FSU is clearly not one of the 4 best teams without their QB, but very deserving as an undefeated P5 champ.  I could live with the committee putting a priority over "deserving" over "best" (or the other way around), but it's maddening that they have no consistency from team to team.  Oregon is clearly the least deserving of the 1 loss teams, but the committee views them as the best.  I can live with that, Oregon has won the eye test.  But if you want to use "best" as the main criteria, it should be applied to all contenders and FSU should be out.      

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  10. 2 minutes ago, linux said:

    People that say the regular season does not matter are crazy, it matters more, it is not until you start going to 32-64 teams or something that it starts to lose its luster.

    Yep.  Sure, there is some extra drama when a single game can knock you out of the running, but that's not a good thing for the sport.  Having more teams/fans in the running means more people care about more games (especially late in the year).  With Texas still in the mix, that had me watching all kinds of games I'd normally never tune into.  How this bowl system and then 2-4 team playoff thing has persisted so long is hard to wrap your head around.  Billions of $'s lost that can never be recouped.  

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  11. 21 minutes ago, ztejas said:

    Y'all are delusional if you think that the CFP is going to honor the h2h shit between us and Bama to where it would be impossible for them to jump us.

    It's ironic that the majority of Texas fans seem to be thinking this way while the majority of Bama fans are thinking Bama is out under this scenario.  Everyone seems pretty sure that they are doomed.    

    8 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    2) The committee values the Texas win over Bama. They had all season to drop us behind Bama and have not done that. They had some big wins in some games where we scraped by and they never moved them in front of us. The committee is telling us that the head to head matters. I think if Texas wins by 14+ and looks good doing it and Bama wins a close game, we are in and they will honor the head to head. I think if Bama boatraces Georgia and we win a strugglefuck with OSU, we probably are out. We have the upper hand at the moment though. 

    This is exactly where I'm at.  The committee is certainly dreading this scenario more than any other, but I think they would lean Texas unless Bama looked really good and Texas looked bad in wins.  Most of the models lean Texas in this scenario and most of the media is saying Texas in this scenario.  It might be delusional and it's far from certain, but it seems like the most common line of thinking (even from the Bama/SEC homers).  I think the ESPN model has this right, it's around 60% chance Texas gets in over Bama in this situation.  

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  12. 28 minutes ago, Knighthawk said:

    Come Saturday night if it’s Michigan, Fla St, Oregon, Texas and Bama with wins I will take Texas and Bama getting in and Oregon gets left out.    

    I think it's more likely undefeated FSU slides than 1 loss Oregon, but I don't think either is happening in that scenario.  More likely Bama or Texas gets screwed (which I see as a toss up). FSU is the clear outlier in the top 8 after losing their QB.    

  13. 1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

    you get punished severely for the OOC loss and no real benefit if you win.  If I see it actually mean something I'd agree with you.

    Besides the entertainment and $'s associated with a big game early in the season, I think it does make the team better (which hopefully increases the odds of winning the "easier" conference games the rest of the year).  Kids/coaches are more motivated over the spring/summer when you know you have an early game with Bama/Michigan/Etc..  Playing a good team early can also highlight deficiencies that a cupcake may not expose.   With the 12 team playoff, I think these games make more sense going forward than they have historically.  

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  14. 30 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

    Totally agreed. The tOSU ranking is a big big deal being willfully ignored by posters here.  

    The only thing the tOUS ranking indicates is that our chances of jumping champ Oregon are close to zero.  There is no situation where tOSU is still in front of a conference champ on Sunday unless that champ is OKstate, Iowa, or Louisville (none of which will have a playoff spot).  It's just to ensure tOSU gets the spot if all choas breaks loose.     

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  15. 3 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

    Let me guess you are a financial planner? It's not very hard to understand. The teams that are above us emboldens their resume by having a top tier win. The committee has shown this year that they may not drop an unbeaten team for a close loss against a very good team (see Oregon and OSU). Everything else is conjecture. 

    Um no...  The best case for a non-champ (georgia) has already be laid out well earlier in this thread and it's pretty clear there is no case or precedent that would put them in over a Texas, Oregon, Bama.  With a committee making decisions at their whim, I'm not one of the people saying it's not possible, just that the chance of that happening is much smaller than chance of us benefitting from Bama/Oregon winning.  It's been beat to death, but non-champs with same records as champs have never gotten a spot, even when the champ has a much worse resume (which would not be the case if comparing Texas to Georgia or Washington). 

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  16. 2 minutes ago, wood said:

    What did he say? I wasn't able to watch. McElroy seems aight.

    McElroy was basically making the point that it's never been about picking the best 4 teams and he used Ohio state (in a previous year) as an example.  It was beautiful and Galloway about lost his shit.  Best teams vs. deserving teams has always been a weird balancing act and has never been applied consistently.  FSU will likely make it in because they deserve it, but Oregon is getting a boost because they are perceived as a better team than Texas.  

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  17. 1 minute ago, ChickenNuggets said:

    did you read what I wrote? Oregon will have 2 losses at that point, we will jump them if Washington beats them... there's no way 2 pac 12 teams go into the playoffs. 

    The only way your view makes any sense is if you believe that there is a higher probability of a 1 loss non-champ Washington jumping a 1 loss texas champ (basically zero chance) vs.  the probability of 1 loss Texas champ jumping a 1 loss Oregon champ (small, but greater than zero).  Everything is possible with people being involved, but that's a really bad take if that's what you are saying.      

  18. 2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

    So why would you think it's better for Oregon to beat Washington?

    Because there is zero chance of us beating out 13-0 washington for a spot.  It's unlikely at this point we jump 12-1 Oregon based on the committee love for them, but it's a greater than zero chance and an argument could be made.  Oregon winning increases our odds vs Washington winning.  It's pretty simple.  

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  19. As far as game watching - 

    I'll be pulling for Oregon Friday night (even if we don't have a shot at jumping them, I'd rather play them vs. Washington in the playoffs)

    Saturday AM - Pulling for Texas

    Saturday Afternoon - pulling for Bama 

    Saturday Night - Pulling for Louisville and Iowa

    We are way, way overdue for some upsets in these top teams this season.  Odds are very good that at least one will happen.  As long as it's not Washington or OSU, we'll have a shot. There would be nothing sweeter than Iowa over Michigan (a guy can dream).  

     

     

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