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blutow

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Posts posted by blutow

  1. 7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    Bama beats Georgia, Louisville beats FSU, all other favored teams win:
    1. Michigan - 99%
    2. Oregon - 99%
    3. Texas - 88%
    4. Bama - 84%
    5. Ohio State

    Bama beats Georgia, all other favored teams win:
    1. Michigan - 99%
    2. FSU - 98%
    3. Oregon - 94%
    4. Texas - 57%
    5. Bama - 43%

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    ESPN has Texas favored to make the playoffs over Bama and leave the SEC on the outside looking in. 

    That all looks way too reasonable to have been produced by ESPN.  Maybe we don't have a chance....    The only thing I'd question with those numbers is that Bama and Texas are only at 84/88% with a Bama win and Louisville win.  I can't see any way either would be left out in that situation.  Do they really think there is a chance tOSU could jump back in?  

  2. 1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

    The winner of Oregon-UW gets in.  Though I would prefer Oregon wins.

    We get in if we win and either Louisville, Iowa, or Bama wins.  Unless Bama destroys UGA.

    I still think we have a small shot even if Oregon wins, probably depends on how each of us look in CCG

    Louisville or Iowa wins - 95%+ Texas is in with a win

    Bama Wins - ~70% Texas is in (again depends on how those games go down)

    Oregon Wins - ~20% Texas is in (another eye test)

     

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  3. 3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

    We would howl if Texas had gotten passed over because Maalik had to come get out two wins with Quinn being out. 

    Apples and Oranges...  They wouldn't pass Texas over because of Maalik because that was weeks ago.  FSU is currently operating with a very shaky backup (and their starter isn't coming back).  If he looks terrible again this week, that doesn't help FSU's case.  In my opinion, FSU should absolutely be in if they win even if they look like crap, but it's being debated in the media.  

  4. I'll be interested where FSU lands in tomorrow's rankings.  They "deserve" to be #4 and I expect them to be ranked there, but are clearly not the 4th best team right now.  If the committee has them lower than 4, it obviously opens the possibility of them being left out after going undefeated.  I know it's unprecedented and I personally wouldn't agree with it, but something unprecedented is going to happen this year if Bama/Texas/FSU/Oregon all win.   

    One reason I think there is a small chance of FSU getting excluded was the committee chairman making comments about considering injuries on the show a couple weeks ago.  It was a really short segment and he brought up injury considerations 2 times (but wasn't clear about how they consider them).  You really have to go back to what the committee is even trying to accomplish.  It's never been only about picking the best teams and it's not about most deserving either, it's some squishy hybrid between the 2.    

  5. 4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

    I get why that can happen but it seems like a dumb move by the committee. That is just going to anger and confuse people. 

    If they already know any one loss conference champ is going to be ahead of them there is no harm leaving all three ahead. The ones that lose will fall behind Ohio state for the poll that matters anyway. 

    Yeah, it's always entertaining when people freak out about those.  But the rankings are supposed to be based on history and not look forward.  I'm guessing they take some consideration about how things might play out in the future (to make their lives easier), but they aren't supposed to and it's a slippery slope if they start doing that.  

  6. 4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    I would not be surprised to see Ohio State ahead of any number of Texas, Alabama, and Oregon tomorrow and then for any of those teams who win next week to pass them in the final rankings.

    Yeah, I'd actually be surprised if tOSU is not the top (or maybe the 2nd) one-loss team on Tuesday, but any 1 loss team that wins their CCG will jump back ahead of tOSU (and any CCG losers) the following week.  

  7. As far as I can remember, a non-champ has never gone in above a 1 loss champ.  And Texas/Bama/Oregon would all be pretty deserving one loss champs if they win out.  For the folks saying a tOSU/UGA/Washington have a shot as a non-champ, I guess anything is possible with the people pulling the strings, but it's never happened.  All the non-champs that have gotten in in the past were over 2 loss teams (which won't come into play this year).  

  8. 32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I've seen more than one SEC fan say 1-loss 'bama should be ranked higher than 1-loss Texas because their loss was "better".  Think about that for a minute.

    I think it's appropriate to rank losses.  Losing to a shitty team vs. a highly ranked team should play into things, but it's certainly not something that should trump a head to head (and OU is still ranked, so not that bad of a loss in this situation).  

    Bama has had more than their fair share of success, but I sort of feel for them if they ended up excluded as a conference champ because they had the balls to schedule a real team OOC instead of a cupcake.  They deserve a playoff spot as an SEC champ with a win over Georgia, but I'd still say Texas is more deserving based on the head to head.  Again, that's why Bama win (and FSU win) is worst case for the committee and why I think a Bama win could drag Texas along with them and leave out champ Oregon or undefeated FSU (who would both also be very deserving as well).  A one-loss team is going to get really fucked next weekend if Bama/FSU/Oregon/Texas/Michigan all win.  It's just a shitty situation with so many deserving teams that all have a pretty good case, but no clear rules dictating who goes.    

  9. 3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

    one thing Texas has going for it is we prevent potential rematches.

    Sort of.  The only potential rematch left on the table with any decent probability is Bama vs. Texas (and the chance of that is still pretty small).  But yeah, the "immediate" rematches we've seen in the past aren't gonna happen this year unless it's total chaos.  tOSU already had their "playoff" game and UGA will have it this weekend.  There's a good chance that tOSU will be ranked above us on Tuesday (and people will lose their minds), but that's pending until champs being determined the following weekend.     

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  10. 3 minutes ago, bullet said:

    If we get left out behind 4 unbeaten teams I don't really have a problem with that, even if I think we are better than Washington or FSU.

    If we get left out behind Oregon who had a lot weaker SOS I would be very unhappy.  If somehow we got left out behind a 1 loss Ohio St., Michigan or Alabama, then its time to throw out the committee.

    +1 on this.  As much as I think we are clearly better than FSU with their backup QB, if they win next week they should be in.  I give them credit for scheduling LSU even though LSU sucks this year.  

  11. 5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.

    On the CFP show a couple weeks ago, the committee dude specifically brought up injury considerations a couple times in a short interview.  Of course, he didn't clarify how they are considered, but I thought it was interesting that he went out of his way to mention it a couple times.  So they are are least talking about it.  

  12. 2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

    in a 12 team playoff we will be arguing over who gets top 4 to get a bye but that's it.  9-12 are about as likely to win a NC as aggy.

    I hope when it goes to 12 that P5 conference champs are automatic.  Sure, you'll end up with some 2-3 loss champs that win the conference in an upset, but that makes things interesting when there are 12 spots.  Having a guaranteed path based on results would be nice and then the rest of the spots can continue with the magic 8 ball committee BS.  

  13. 5 minutes ago, dec3169 said:

    When they ranked Oregon above us we lost to an undefeated ou.  It makes more sense now than it did then.

    OU was no longer undefeated when the first CFP rankings came out.  They had just lost to Kansas 3 days prior and had almost lost to UCF the prior week.  It made our loss look pretty bad while Oregon was rolling (eye test and win against Utah right before rankings).  If OU stayed undefeated (like washington did), we never would have been behind Oregon.  I never understood why everyone was so happy about OU losing when it was bad for Texas, best case was we beat an undefeated OU in the CCG (would have been good on so many levels).  I like to see OU to lose as much as the next guy, but not when it hurts Texas.     

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  14. 4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

    people are much closer to the vector here overnight

    so i will not spoil the prediction i made in wulaw's gameweek thread

    4th and 31 ("graveyard") TD is going to be the smokescreen for the shell game just behind it on tuesday night:

    tuesday night:

    1 dawg

    2 meatchicken

    3 washington

    4 florida state

    5 bama

    6 texas

    7 oregon

    8 jort

    9 louisville

    That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

  15. 1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

    There is also SOS, which highly favors both Texas and Bama over Oregon. Not to mention you are saying margin of victory doesn’t matter, but it’s literally the basis for Oregon being ahead of Texas and Bama. They are getting a bump for blowing out shitty PAC teams 

    Agree, but they have ignored it to this point and their strength of schedule is getting a bump (relative to Texas) both this week and next.  On the margin of victory, I'm just highlighting that they specifically call out that it can't be used when looking at common opponents (so while I'm sure they are looking it at, they can't use that to explain externally why we might jump oregon).  I'm saying they probably did the initial rankings without really giving it much thought and I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).  

    image.png.f06454648976809271509d7de69d23f5.png

       

  16. 2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    "Oregon is one spot ahead of Texas now so Texas can't pass them" is a really dumb take. 

    The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it).  While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents.  While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game.  And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU.  The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad.  If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.  

  17. 4 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

    That's why I think we should root for undefeated champs from those conferences. Then we pick our battles with Pac 12 and ACC and hope our resume looks better assuming we all have the same W-L records. If one of these two conferences has an unbeaten champ, they also go in ahead of us. 

    hmmm....  There will be 4 unbeaten conference champs in that scenario and we won't have anyone with the same w-l record left to debate with.  We want as many 1 loss conference champs as possible, including Bama and Oregon.  No guarantee we get in over either of those, but there is a chance.   

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