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blutow

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Everything posted by blutow

  1. Yeah, I'd actually be surprised if tOSU is not the top (or maybe the 2nd) one-loss team on Tuesday, but any 1 loss team that wins their CCG will jump back ahead of tOSU (and any CCG losers) the following week.
  2. As far as I can remember, a non-champ has never gone in above a 1 loss champ. And Texas/Bama/Oregon would all be pretty deserving one loss champs if they win out. For the folks saying a tOSU/UGA/Washington have a shot as a non-champ, I guess anything is possible with the people pulling the strings, but it's never happened. All the non-champs that have gotten in in the past were over 2 loss teams (which won't come into play this year).
  3. I think it's appropriate to rank losses. Losing to a shitty team vs. a highly ranked team should play into things, but it's certainly not something that should trump a head to head (and OU is still ranked, so not that bad of a loss in this situation). Bama has had more than their fair share of success, but I sort of feel for them if they ended up excluded as a conference champ because they had the balls to schedule a real team OOC instead of a cupcake. They deserve a playoff spot as an SEC champ with a win over Georgia, but I'd still say Texas is more deserving based on the head to head. Again, that's why Bama win (and FSU win) is worst case for the committee and why I think a Bama win could drag Texas along with them and leave out champ Oregon or undefeated FSU (who would both also be very deserving as well). A one-loss team is going to get really fucked next weekend if Bama/FSU/Oregon/Texas/Michigan all win. It's just a shitty situation with so many deserving teams that all have a pretty good case, but no clear rules dictating who goes.
  4. Sort of. The only potential rematch left on the table with any decent probability is Bama vs. Texas (and the chance of that is still pretty small). But yeah, the "immediate" rematches we've seen in the past aren't gonna happen this year unless it's total chaos. tOSU already had their "playoff" game and UGA will have it this weekend. There's a good chance that tOSU will be ranked above us on Tuesday (and people will lose their minds), but that's pending until champs being determined the following weekend.
  5. +1 on this. As much as I think we are clearly better than FSU with their backup QB, if they win next week they should be in. I give them credit for scheduling LSU even though LSU sucks this year.
  6. Don't stop him, he's on a roll....
  7. KSU losing yesterday didn't help..., likely lost one of our ranked wins.
  8. On the CFP show a couple weeks ago, the committee dude specifically brought up injury considerations a couple times in a short interview. Of course, he didn't clarify how they are considered, but I thought it was interesting that he went out of his way to mention it a couple times. So they are are least talking about it.
  9. I hope when it goes to 12 that P5 conference champs are automatic. Sure, you'll end up with some 2-3 loss champs that win the conference in an upset, but that makes things interesting when there are 12 spots. Having a guaranteed path based on results would be nice and then the rest of the spots can continue with the magic 8 ball committee BS.
  10. OU was no longer undefeated when the first CFP rankings came out. They had just lost to Kansas 3 days prior and had almost lost to UCF the prior week. It made our loss look pretty bad while Oregon was rolling (eye test and win against Utah right before rankings). If OU stayed undefeated (like washington did), we never would have been behind Oregon. I never understood why everyone was so happy about OU losing when it was bad for Texas, best case was we beat an undefeated OU in the CCG (would have been good on so many levels). I like to see OU to lose as much as the next guy, but not when it hurts Texas.
  11. I'm not sure anyone is saying they are totally ignoring that stuff, just that guidelines are squishy at best.
  12. That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?
  13. Agree, but they have ignored it to this point and their strength of schedule is getting a bump (relative to Texas) both this week and next. On the margin of victory, I'm just highlighting that they specifically call out that it can't be used when looking at common opponents (so while I'm sure they are looking it at, they can't use that to explain externally why we might jump oregon). I'm saying they probably did the initial rankings without really giving it much thought and I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).
  14. The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it). While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents. While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game. And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU. The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad. If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.
  15. hmmm.... There will be 4 unbeaten conference champs in that scenario and we won't have anyone with the same w-l record left to debate with. We want as many 1 loss conference champs as possible, including Bama and Oregon. No guarantee we get in over either of those, but there is a chance.
  16. The more of those there are, the better. Again, I believe the chances of a non-champ getting a spot are already near zero and the more 1 loss "deserving" non-champs there are, the lower the likelihood that any of them get in.
  17. Bama winning is the biggest form of chaos that could happen next week as it relates to Texas. If Georgia wins that game (likely), the committee has a huge sigh of relief.
  18. Why UW? I agree that it's a long shot we jump 12-1 Oregon (since we haven't already and their case only gets stronger), but 13-0 UW is definitely in.
  19. +100, that is my hope and why I think it can only be good if Bama beats Georgia. Yeah, I agree that SEC should be on the bubble if Georgia doesn't win, I'm just not sure the football gods would allow that. The talk of 2 teams from SEC or B1G is silly in my opinion. I get the argument that OSU or Georgia might still be one of the best 4 teams in the country, but that's not how it works. Results/championships matter. If the committee was just picking the best 4 teams, FSU wouldn't even be in the discussion right now.
  20. I'm sitting on the fence between both camps. I think there is a decent chance the committee doesn't have the balls to exclude the SEC and will have to let Bama in if they win the conference. If that happens, I hope the discussion would be "well, we can't exclude Texas if we include Bama, let's take another look at FSU and Oregon.....". I think Bama winning is a long shot, but that scenario absolutely gives us a better shot than if Georgia wins (where there is a 100% guarantee they get a spot while also making our win over Bama less valuable).
  21. It's only nonsense if you believe 2 SEC teams get in. I know you think that (and anything is possible with a human committee), but that scenario is way, way crazier than the other scenarios. The only time it's happened in the past is when the non-champ goes in over a 2 loss champ. It's looking like it will be 5 very deserving champs. It's not the best team on paper, the results of the games have to matter to some degree.
  22. ??? If we have a one loss UGA, Bama only has one loss. It's the only game left.
  23. Bama beating Georgia can only help us. It's the committee's worst nightmare. They will want to put Bama in so bad, but it's really hard to discount that head to head loss to Texas. I'm not ruling out the committee putting Bama in and leaving Texas out in that situation, but it's still better than Georgia winning. If there is a situation where they leave an undefeated FSU out (or push champ Oregon out), a Bama win over Georgia increases the odds of either of those things happening.
  24. If huskies win, they go. If Oregon wins, they probably go, but Texas would at least have an argument.
  25. Oregon got ahead of us because 3 days before the first CFP rankings they beat Utah convincingly (ranked at the time) and OU lost to Kansas after almost losing to UCF the prior week (making our loss to OU look pretty bad). Then OU lost another one the next week. Once they put Oregon in front of us, (which was dumb to start with), nothing dramatic enough has happened to correct it. I doubt the tech win will be enough to shuffle the standings (since Oregon just beat a ranked OSU), but I guess it's possible.
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