blutow
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Everything posted by blutow
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Coach Sark Press Conference 10.30 - 11:00am(ish) LHN
blutow replied to BigOrange1's topic in Football
"versatility", "multiple ways to win" -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
Winning the head to head (early in the season) is far from a guarantee given the potential circumstances. If they were coming off a CCG win over undefeated Georgia, they'd have a nice fresh win against a top ~3 team and their only loss would be early in the season against a highly ranked Texas team. And our loss to OU isn't aging well and could get worse. We'll have no wins against top teams late in the season, our resume is primarily Alabama in game 2. The committee is all about "body of work", I think they'd pick Bama. That said, I think it's doubtful Bama wins out. Again, just win the games and we are 90% in, but not guaranteed in my opinion. -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
You are talking about the odds of an individual team going undefeated, not the odds that of having 2 undefeated teams. I haven't look at odds on individual games going forward, just going off history. Having 2 undefeated teams in the playoffs is a reasonable 50/50 bet. In the last several years - 2022 - 2 undefeated 2021 - 1 undefeated 2020 - 2 undefeated 2019 - 3 undefeated 2018 - 3 undefeated Far from certain, but looking at the teams remaining and who that have to play, it's still say that is > 50% chance there are a couple undefeated teams at the end of regular season. -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
Oregon is probably more likely to win out than Washington. I think there is a >50% chance there will be 2 unbeatens out of MU/OSO, GA, and FSU. Assuming that happens and we win out, it will be a 1 loss beauty contest for the remaining 2 spots. Our resume would have us in the mix, but far from guaranteed. We really need both Washington and Oregon to lose a game prior to CCG and we need Alabama to keep winning. If Bama wins out and beats Georgia in CCG, it would be really hard to leave out a 1 loss Texas when Bama would certainly be in. -
Absolutely, but that's why I said he needs to make us a consistent contender (and there is still a long way to go this year). Even TCU can stumble into a great season when the stars align, we need a sustainable program that wins 10+ every year. If Sark can get us to that point, we're in the playoffs most years and you get your shots at championships. While I'm not yet convinced Sark is the guy, I like that he seems very focused on long term foundational stuff and I think he's pushing a style of football that lends itself to consistent long term success. This isn't Herman using a QB as a battering ram to win games. While I don't agree with some of the in game decisions, those are mainly noise in the big picture. I'm trying to judge the guy at the game or even season level, which is ultimately what I care about. And I personally think they are playing a style of football that's really entertaining to watch. For all the folks saying that we're winning ugly, I really wonder if they watch college football.
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I don't think it's scrimmage mentality, I think it's simply Sark being stubborn and doubling down on his beliefs and trying to establish program identity. He wants Texas to be a program that exerts their will on opponents, smash them in the mouth and win the day (and all that crap that sounds cheesy, but is actually pretty important). That high level agenda is really important, but that's a long game strategy (years sometimes) and you still have to play smart situational football in the moment. I thought it was bat shit crazy not kicking those field goals to make it a 3 possession game, but I'm not the one who is going to get fired if Sark doesn't make Texas a consistent national contender within the next few years. He seems to have a vision of what he wants Texas football to be and he's stubbornly sticking to it. I'm not sure if that vision is right or wrong or if he's the guy to make it happen, but I like the commitment and consistency. We've been wandering in the desert without a real identity for too long. As much as some of the calls drive me crazy, Texas is playing a really solid and sustainable style of football in my opinion.
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The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
Yeah, but they've shown the ability to put up some points and Bama's offense is inconsistent at best. I think it will be a dangerous game for them. Then they have Kentucky and Auburn (both away games). I wouldn't bet against Bama in any of these, but I think there is a decent chance they drop 1. As long as Texas keeps winning, it actually makes some of these other games more interesting. I normally wouldn't give a fuck about most of these games, but when Texas in in the hunt for a CPF position I'll get pretty amped up for any game that has an impact. -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
Statistically/historically very unlikely. If we do win out, I'd say it's 90%+ likely we are in, but not guaranteed. That said, our chance of winning out is probably under 25% (even though likely favored in all). -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
Yeah, if that happens then Texas is far from a lock in my opinion. We really need Bama to keep winning and at least play in CCG. Would not be surprised if they drop the LSU game. -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
Yep, there is no way Oregon jumps us today if OU wins against Kansas yesterday. And it's also a timing thing. Memories are short, recent games get much more credit than early season games. Our best win of the year (unless we make the playoffs) will be a week 2 win. Our best possible win going forward happens next week against a team barely in the top 25. Would have been nice to knock off OU in CCG when they were sitting in the top 5 (or whatever). At that point, you'd have 2 top 5 wins and no debate against other 1 loss champs. I'm not as convinced as others that a 12-1 Texas gets in over a 1 loss Oregon or Washington. Media has been propping PAC up all year and beating on Big12 (somewhat fairly). Everyone will forget how bad SEC was OOC by the time decisions are made. -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
I have no concerns about a bunch of undefeated teams, I'm more worried about rankings between 1 loss conference champs if Texas is one of them. But mostly I'm worried that we'll drop a game and make it all a pointless discussion. -
The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread
blutow replied to TrashMaster G's topic in Football
If we win out, we could easily get left out over a 1 loss Oregon, Washington (depending on who they lost to) or Alabama. 1 loss ACC/B1G champ probably wouldn't jump us if Alabama keeps winning. As much as I hate measuring "quality of loss", OU's glorious loss yesterday could come back to bite us. If we had ended beating an undefeated OU in the CCG, our 1 loss would look better and we'd have a win again a top ~5 OU right at CFP decision time (timing is everything). Now, if we win out and meet OU (or someone else) in CCG, we'll only have a single signature win - Alabama before they got their shit together (that will be the narrative/justification). And our OU loss will look worse. Texas would almost certainly be passed over by a 1 loss Alabama if they beat an undefeated GA in the CCG (again timing is everything). Lots of football to be played, just win and see what happens. -
Yeah, lots of people speed and take their chances, but most try to be smart about it. If someone blows through a school zone doing 80, they are probably getting a ride to the station. The level of stupidity that UM appears to have exhibited here is pretty impressive. Whether NCAA can or will do anything about it will be an interesting watch.
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Oh, I'm sure the SC DC knew how the signs were obtained, but there may not be a paper trail that proves that he knew. So, if SC thinks he's a good OC, he probably keeps his job because they say he didn't know. If they are looking for any reason to get rid of him, they fire him because he should have asked/known and SC is such an ethical school and all the crap.
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The DC could probably make a decent case that he didn't know how the signs were obtained. Is it illegal for a UM coach to give a SC coach some info on signs that were obtained within the rules (as far as the SC coach knows)? It all sounds wrong, but wrong and against the rules aren't always the same thing.
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It's not really about who pays, but whether the folks paying should reasonably know what's going on. A common corporate tactic for doing shady shit (bribes for gov't officials, price fixing, etc.) is to pay a 3rd party to do your dirty work and be smart about the paper trail (money passes hands to a BD consultant for non-specific tasks, etc.). If done well, it can be hard to pin something back on the company. That said, these coaches and athletic administrators are obviously not the sharpest knives in the drawer. The fact that they employed this guy (and possibly directly reimbursed tickets and travel) and put him on the sidelines instead of keeping an arms-length relationship is beyond dumb. I'm sure UM is trying to construct a story that they didn't how the guy was getting the signs, but good luck with that.
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The most entertaining outcome would be watching the season play out and UM falling apart because their success was based on knowing the signs. I assume there is no way they can continue doing it since they will be under a microscope.
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McElroy's reaction here is priceless (about 2 minutes in) - Nuno - "I don't think Texas has the same level of defense" McElroy "As A&M?" (thinking Nuno must be comparing Texas to Alabama or some other reasonable comparison) Nuno "Yeah" (without hesitation, it's not a lie if you believe it I guess).
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Yeah, it was all tongue in check, trying to channel my inner aggy.
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Trying to project Sark's future based on the performance of other coaches is just a dumb way to support a given opinion. Coaches evolve just like any professional field and the game is also evolving around them. If it was possible to evaluate a coaching prospect and guarantee consistent playoff-level success at a given program, schools would pay 10's of millions as a finder's fee for that service (a lot cheaper than hiring/firing coaches until the stars align). I like it when I hear Sark highlighting the things he personally screwed up and needs to improve on. I know some of that is to deflect from the players, but I believe he is a guy that looks at his own performance with a critical eye to improve. Sark may never figure out how to be an elite coach, but he might. I'm not sold on Sark as the savior of Texas football, but I also wouldn't rule it out and I wouldn't want to start over with anyone else right now. If I wanted to "cherry pick" some history to support the notion that Sark has potential as a head coach, I'd just compare Saban's record at Michigan State and first year at LSU to Sark's at Washington/USC. Similar schools with similar resources. Until Sark's alcohol reboot, the records are almost identical. Saban never had a 10 win season until he was over 50 (older than Sark). If we just give Sark a mulligan for last year (since it was his first year back as a head coach), we're trending for a run just like Alabama. Just to be clear, I'm not saying Sark is the next St. Nick, just highlighting how easy (and stupid) it is to pick some history to support any position you can dream up. Nobody knows how Sark is going to turn out as a head coach. If he isn't the guy, we'll eventually move on to another. This is the way.
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I don't like the continuing self inflicted mistakes, but a lot of them have been at QB and OL. I'm not saying the coaches don't take some blame for this crap, but young players are gonna do stupid stuff and it's magnified at those positions. I hate to use Sarks "Brand/Style" reference, but I really like what the team is doing in all 3 phases and I think it will eventually translate to more consistent results. Add more talent on defense and more experience at OL/QB, and I could see this staff having us in the mix for conference championships and playoffs. I'm not sold on Sark yet (odds are never good with these things), but I'd bet on Sark before replacing him with the latest shiny object in the coaching world (again, any new hire is long odds).
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I'm sure they are looking hard for reasons to fire for cause (or other loophole), but that approach would likely keep the dumpster fire smoldering for a long time. I'd bet both sides are ready to part ways and active discussions are underway to figure out exit terms. A&M is probably threatening to fire for cause (maybe with the concussion thing if it's real), but that path would get really ugly and public. The promise of a clean exit (with no "cause") might be enough for Jimbo to concede a portion of the buyout to just be done with it. I suspect Jimbo has been in quiet quitting mode for a while, enjoying his african safaris and time on his ranch. He was probably happy to keep coaching/coasting as long as it was going OK, but that $85m has to be looking really good compared to the shit storm he's in right now.
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I keep hearing this and it certainly makes it a challenge, but the $85 million is already committed. It's a sunk cost that is budgeted, it's just a matter of timing on the payout. "only" 25% has to be paid upon firing and then annual installments for the balance (at least that's what I've read). Sure, it's tough to pay 25% up front, but they would have a way to raise the funds for the buyout and pay that portion back (plus interest) over time. The decision is really whether they are willing to pay 2 coaches for the next 9 years. Assuming they found a new coach at around $5m/yr, the incremental cost of firing Jimbo and bringing in someone new would be around $6m (I'm assuming around $1m year for interest on the payout). It's an risky bet either way. If you don't fire him soon, it might result in years of decline costing the program a lot more than the $6m/yr incremental to bring in someone new. But if the new guy doesn't work out (50/50 at best), you'll be paying 3 coaches when you need to bring in the next savior. The Jimbo contract (as I understand it) is really next level stupid on A&M's part. The 10 year guarantee is nuts to begin with, but having to pay such a big chunk the day they fire him with no offset if he takes another job is just mind bending stupidity. He can make significantly more $ over the next 9 years by getting fired now and sitting on the beach than he would if he stayed (because he can invest the buyout $). If he gets another job, he get's that $ as well. He's leaving millions on the table by not getting fired as soon as possible. Based on his last couple press conferences, I can't believe he's trying to keep his job at this point.
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You know what's better than $10m/yr to not show up for your job? An $86m check to walk away today and be done with that crap forever. And go get a different job at another place if he wants to keep coaching. Jimbo can't be having a good time right now. He could try to work his way out of it over time for $9m year if he is really invested in the program (doubtful). Nobody likes to get fired, but walking papers with $86m in hand has to be the path Jimbo's wants right now. He'd probably do A&M a solid and leave for $80m just to get the hell out of there. In my opinion, he's absolutely trying to get fired at this point. If I was trying my hardest to get fired from a coaching job, I don't think I could do a better job of it than Jimbo is right now. All I hear in that press conference babble is "fuck you, buy me out if you want me to stop destroying your program". Maybe he is just that bad at his job, but I suspect he may be just smart enough to be pushing buttons to get out of there ASAP with a big check.
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