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Posts posted by bolverk
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5 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:
Nah, just didn't wanna come off as all showy, and shit..
Touché
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1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:
Well, it was more a planning/zoning/social issue than a strictly architectural issue, but yeah I'm familiar with it, see my original interstate highway system comment.
I figure if you went to architecture school you'd be familiar, so that's why I suspected you were being a little coy in your response.
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Just now, gmr548 said:
My manWe could also discuss the effects of redlining and desegregation in public education, but I don't think we want to go there.
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2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:
The highway project pretty much built suburbia, and made it relevant
Well, that along with the feds making low-interest mortgages available as part of the GI Bill. It was both of those policies together along with Euclidean Zoning.
As an architect, I would think Onboard would be very familiar with this history. Maybe he's just playing dumb for effect.
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6 minutes ago, Hate said:
Can’t Florida and Nola be explained with Spring Break and Mardi Gras?That's kind of the point of not having mass gatherings. Check out a case map that shows rural, southern Georgia. I believe there was a funeral earlier that attendees have spread the virus throughout the region, making it one of the worst hotspots in the nation.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
Edit: Development patterns won't matter if people don't abide by social distancing.
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Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:
I wonder where the 8-10k cases will come from if we think NY has peakedThe spreadsheet I work from assigns the current-to-date CFR and applies it on the cases from the previous five days. In other words, the cake is already baked for the next five days since there's a lag between a reported confirmed case and a subsequent death. I made a guesstimate of five days and it's fallen within a range with reported deaths.
Cases/Day Deaths/ Day Deaths 5-day lag 3/6 98 3/7 116 3/8 106 3/9 163 3/10 290 3/11 307 8 5 3/12 329 3 6 3/13 553 7 6 3/14 587 9 9 3/15 843 12 16 3/16 983 18 17 3/17 1,748 23 18 3/18 2,853 40 30 3/19 4,582 56 32 3/20 5,588 49 46 3/21 4,825 46 54 3/22 9,400 113 96 3/23 10,189 141 157 3/24 11,075 225 252 3/25 13,355 247 307 3/26 17,244 268 265 3/27 18,691 400 517 3/28 19,452 525 560 3/29 19,913 363 609 3/30 20,297 558 734 3/31 24,742 912 948 4/1 26,473 1,049 1,027 4/2 29,874 974 1,069 4/3 32,284 1,045 1,094 4/4 34,196 1,330 1,115 4/5 25,400 1,165 1,360 4/6 31,240 1,255 1,455 4/7 33,502 1,973 1,642 4/8 31,997 1,943 1,774 4/9 33,606 1,901 1,879 4/10 33,752 2,035 1,396 4/11 30,003 1,830 1,717 4/12 27,421 1,528 1,841 4/13 1,758 4/14 1,847 4/15 1,855 4/16 1,649 4/17 1,507 The red projections at the bottom of the right-hand column reflect the red figures in the reported cases by applying a to-date CFR of about 5.5 percent.
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Updated my spreadsheet from last week which projected ~21,000 cases by yesterday's end. We came in right about 22,000 (they had gone back a revised a few days upward on Worldometer). It's now projecting a smidgen over 31,000 total US deaths by the end of Friday for what it's worth using a CFR of about 5.5 percent so far.
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Map of current per capita case count for Texas counties (click per capita button): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html
National per capita map: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
The Northeast is fucked, but rural areas of the Deep South aren't doing that great on a per capita basis.
Keep scrolling down to see where the rate of new cases is rising the quickest and it's mostly rural areas. Hopefully, that improves soon.
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2 hours ago, Gene Parmesan said:
This was the true goal of Joe Exotics tiger breeding.
Joe Exotic is Boomer Sooner personified.
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Bonjour, y'all.
I've mostly kept to myself the last few days for the sake of my sanity in all of this with the exception of creating a crude model to project deaths over the next few days.
It's morbid and disgusting, but my brain needs some sort of reassurance that we're not all going to turn into fucking flesh-eating zombies.
I haven't read the past few pages, but I did spot Brisket mentioning having difficulty with French. I got you, man, and can contribute by assisting with that normally useless skillset whenever you'd wish. It's basically Spanish with some Old Germanic words thrown in, which fucks up the spelling.
Today, I spoke with my big sister for the first time since this all started. She's a PA with a pediatric practice up in the Denver area, and she told me one of her patients was a 12yo girl who was in the hospital right now with this shit. She used the word "liquefied" to describe the state of that child's lungs
I'm glad that we spoke though. Yesterday, I sent her a text to call our stubborn elderly mother and convince her to stay the fuck home as our mom had still been planning to drive 45 minutes to the next town (with 30-40 confirmed cases) to purchase 8 itmes, including chocolate chip cookie mix, at Sam's that she could easily get closer to home where there's only been one confirmed case in a county of 35,000. My sister told me that she absolutely believes she finally got through to them.
Sorry, guys/gals, for this rambling wall of words. At this moment, y'all are my only outlet whereas elsewhere I have to pretend to be a fully functional adult and productive worker.
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4 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:
Holy shit 95 in Dallas today and 77 tomorrow?
It's a veritable blue norther!
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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:
the police/caution tape to keep them from going by the driver is a nice touch...
Bus drivers are performing a necessary service too. One died in Detroit as a result of being exposed if you are unawares.
https://abc7ny.com/bus-driver-coronavirus-detroit-jason-hargrove-us/6081504/
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Interesting article from today's NYTimes on the psychology behind and danger of conspiracy theories:
Why Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories Flourish. And Why It Matters.
Unseen villains. Top-secret cures. In their quest for reassurance during the pandemic, many people are worsening more than just their own anxiety.The coronavirus has given rise to a flood of conspiracy theories, disinformation and propaganda, eroding public trust and undermining health officials in ways that could elongate and even outlast the pandemic.
Claims that the virus is a foreign bioweapon, a partisan invention or part of a plot to re-engineer the population have replaced a mindless virus with more familiar, comprehensible villains. Each claim seems to give a senseless tragedy some degree of meaning, however dark.
Rumors of secret cures — diluted bleach, turning off your electronics, bananas — promise hope of protection from a threat that not even world leaders can escape.
The belief that one is privy to forbidden knowledge offers feelings of certainty and control amid a crisis that has turned the world upside down. And sharing that “knowledge” may give people something that is hard to come by after weeks of lockdowns and death: a sense of agency.
“It has all the ingredients for leading people to conspiracy theories,” said Karen M. Douglas, a social psychologist who studies belief in conspiracies at the University of Kent in Britain.
Rumors and patently unbelievable claims are spread by everyday people whose critical faculties have simply been overwhelmed, psychologists say, by feelings of confusion and helplessness.
But many false claims are also being promoted by governments looking to hide their failures, partisan actors seeking political benefit, run-of-the-mill scammers and, in the United States, a president who has pushed unproven cures and blame-deflecting falsehoods.
The conspiracy theories all carry a common message: The only protection comes from possessing the secret truths that “they” don’t want you to hear.
The feelings of security and control offered by such rumors may be illusory, but the damage to the public trust is all too real.
It has led people to consume fatal home remedies and flout social distancing guidance. And it is disrupting the sweeping collective actions, like staying at home or wearing masks, needed to contain a virus that has already killed more than 79,000 people.
“We’ve faced pandemics before,” said Graham Brookie, who directs the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. “We haven’t faced a pandemic at a time when humans are as connected and have as much access to information as they do now."
This growing ecosystem of misinformation and public distrust has led the World Health Organization to warn of an “infodemic.”
“You see the space being flooded,” Mr. Brookie said, adding, “The anxiety is viral, and we’re all just feeling that at scale.”
SpoilerThe Allure of ‘Secret Knowledge’
“People are drawn to conspiracies because they promise to satisfy certain psychological motives that are important to people,” Dr. Douglas said. Chief among them: command of the facts, autonomy over one’s well-being and a sense of control.If the truth does not fill those needs, we humans have an incredible capacity to invent stories that will, even when some part of us knows they are false. A recent study found that people are significantly likelier to share false coronavirus information than they are to believe it.
“The magnitude of misinformation spreading in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic is overwhelming our small team,” Snopes, a fact-checking site, said on Twitter. “We’re seeing scores of people, in a rush to find any comfort, make things worse as they share (sometimes dangerous) misinformation.”
Widely shared, Instagram posts falsely suggested that the coronavirus was planned by Bill Gates on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. In Alabama, Facebook posts falsely claimed that shadowy powers had ordered sick patients to be secretly helicoptered into the state. In Latin America, equally baseless rumors have proliferated that the virus was engineered to spread H.I.V. In Iran, pro-government voices portray the disease as a Western plot.
If the claims are seen as taboo, all the better.
The belief that we have access to secret information may help us feel that we have an advantage, that we are somehow safer. “If you believe in conspiracy theories, then you have power through knowledge that other people don’t have,” Dr. Douglas said.
Italian media buzzed over a video posted by an Italian man from Tokyo in which he claimed that the coronavirus was treatable but that Italian officials were “hiding the truth.”
Other videos, popular on YouTube, claim that the entire pandemic is a fiction staged to control the population.
Still others say that the disease is real, but its cause isn’t a virus — it’s 5G cellular networks.
One YouTube video pushing this falsehood, and implying that social distancing measures could be ignored, has received 1.9 million views. In Britain, there has been a rash of attacks on cellular towers.
Conspiracy theories may also make people feel less alone. Few things tighten the bonds of “us” like rallying against “them,” especially foreigners and minorities, both frequent scapegoats of coronavirus rumors and much else before now.
But whatever comfort that affords is short-lived.
Over time, research finds, trading in conspiracies not only fails to satisfy our psychological needs, Dr. Douglas said, but also tends to worsen feelings of fear or helplessness.
And that can lead us to seek out still more extreme explanations, like addicts looking for bigger and bigger hits.
Governments Find Opportunity in Confusion
The homegrown conspiracists and doubters are finding themselves joined by governments. Anticipating political backlash from the crisis, government leaders have moved quickly to shunt the blame by trafficking in false claims of their own.A senior Chinese official pushed claims that the virus was introduced to China by members of the United States Army, an accusation that was allowed to flourish on China’s tightly controlled social media.
In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro suggested that the virus was an American bioweapon aimed at China. In Iran, officials called it a plot to suppress the vote there. And outlets that back the Russian government, including branches in Western Europe, have promoted claims that the United States engineered the virus to undermine China’s economy.
In the former Soviet republics of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, leaders praised bogus treatments and argued that citizens should continue working.
But officials have hardly refrained from the rumor mongering in more democratic nations, particularly those where distrust of authority has given rise to strong populist movements.
Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s anti-migrant League Party, wrote on Twitter that China had devised a “lung supervirus” from “bats and rats.”
And President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil has repeatedly promoted unproven coronavirus treatments, and implied that the virus is less dangerous than experts say. Facebook, Twitter and YouTube all took the extraordinary step of removing the posts.
President Trump, too, has repeatedly pushed unproven drugs, despite warnings from scientists and despite at least one fatal overdose of a man whose wife said he had taken a drug at Mr. Trump’s suggestion.
Mr. Trump has accused perceived enemies of seeking to “inflame” the coronavirus “situation” to hurt him. When supplies of personal protective equipment fell short at New York hospitals, he implied that health workers might be stealing masks.
His allies have gone further.
Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, and others have suggested that the virus was produced by a Chinese weapons lab. Some media allies have claimed that the death toll has been inflated by Mr. Trump’s enemies.
A Parallel Crisis
“This kind of information suppression is dangerous — really, really dangerous,” Mr. Brookie said, referring to Chinese and American efforts to play down the threat of the outbreak.It has nourished not just individual conspiracies but a wider sense that official sources and data cannot be trusted, and a growing belief that people must find the truth on their own.
A cacophony arising from armchair epidemiologists who often win attention through sensational claims is at times crowding out legitimate experts whose answers are rarely as tidy or emotionally reassuring.
They promise easy cures, like avoiding telecommunications or even eating bananas. They wave off the burdens of social isolation as unnecessary. Some sell sham treatments of their own.
“Medical conspiracy theories have the power to increase distrust in medical authorities, which can impact people’s willingness to protect themselves,” Daniel Jolley and Pia Lamberty, scholars of psychology, wrote in a recent article.
Such claims have been shown to make people less likely to take vaccines or antibiotics, and more likely to seek medical advice from friends and family instead of from doctors.
Belief in one conspiracy also tends to increase belief in others. The consequences, experts warn, could not only worsen the pandemic, but outlive it.
Medical conspiracies have been a growing problem for years. So has distrust of authority, a major driver of the world’s slide into fringe populism. Now, as the world enters an economic crisis with little modern precedent, that may deepen.
The wave of coronavirus conspiracies, Dr. Jolley and Dr. Lamberty wrote, “has the potential to be just as dangerous for societies as the outbreak itself.”
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Reminded me of this:
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29 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:
Van Jones commenting on the point in your post.
It's also worth pointing out that low-wage service workers who are customer-facing don't have the luxury of hiding out in their homes and work from home. Those folks are much more likely to exposed to this thing.
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1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:
Does anyone do a rolling 3 day avg to smooth out the data?
I made a crude attempt using Worldometer numbers to come up with a rolling five-day projection for deaths based on the new case count for the US and it tracks pretty well within a ballpark range.
Left column is the number of recorded new cases each day.
Middle column is the number of recorded deaths each day.
Right column the predicted number of deaths for that day, using a cfr of 5.2126% which is what it was from March 6 through April 2. Not perfect, but it parallels pretty well.
Given the numbers they've put out so far, we should expect a ballpark figure of around 7,800 new deaths by Sunday evening, based on the new case count from April 3 to today.
Y'all are more than welcome to copy/pasta the below into your own spreadsheet to tweek it and come up with something better.
Cases/Day Deaths/Day Deaths 5-day lag 3/6 98 3/7 116 3/8 106 3/9 163 3/10 290 3/11 307 8 5 3/12 329 3 6 3/13 553 7 6 3/14 587 9 8 3/15 843 12 15 3/16 983 18 16 3/17 1,748 23 17 3/18 2,853 40 29 3/19 4,582 56 31 3/20 5,588 49 44 3/21 4,825 46 51 3/22 9,400 113 91 3/23 10,189 141 149 3/24 11,075 225 239 3/25 13,355 247 291 3/26 17,244 268 252 3/27 18,691 400 490 3/28 19,452 525 531 3/29 19,913 363 577 3/30 20,297 558 696 3/31 24,742 912 899 4/1 26,473 1,049 974 4/2 29,874 974 1,014 4/3 32,284 1,045 1,038 4/4 34,196 1,330 1,058 4/5 25,316 1,165 1,290 4/6 30,331 1,255 1,380 4/7 28,273 1,913 1,557 4/8 1,683 4/9 1,783 4/10 1,320 4/11 1,581 4/12 1,474 -
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PSA for any Surly Austinites who may have missed it:
Starting at sunset on Thursday, all City of Austin parks and trails will close for the Easter weekend to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
The closures, covering all city trails, greenbelts and preserves – including the Butler Hike and Bike Trail around Lady Bird Lake – end at sunrise Monday.
https://www.kut.org/post/all-city-austin-parks-and-trails-will-close-during-easter-weekend
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30 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:
Everyone has their strengths and deficits. I never let military or law enforcement or engineers sit on a jury if I can prevent it. They cannot get it through their heads the concept of you can win a trial with 51% proof. Their brains do not work that way. They are hard wired to accept only proof, and tend to automatically disregard the order of the Court to follow the Preponderance of the Evidence jury charge. They will not follow it. They will say after, "I had some doubts...you did not prove it fully..." No kidding. That would be a different standard - not the one the Court gave you. It is useless to educate them, and they will argue that they are right when you tell them that it was more likely than not true.
Which is all to say, if you have a decision that takes nuance and possibilities with a relatively soft percentage of proof - like under 80 percent, that type of mind will resist an option that is not a sure thing. And sometimes you have to make a BIG decision based upon a 'more likely than not'. That type of mind tends to freeze when making a decision with less than certainty. Studies show that the type of black-white thinker that is military or LE or engineering tend to be conservative/GOP. Liberals tend to be folks who see more gray. We like nurses and social workers and teachers on juries. They do fine with a 55% proof in a case.
So I think that Red State leaders may be slower to act not out of evil intent, but due to a lack of 100% certainty proof about the Covid-19 response "right decision".
If this is too political I will delete it - or a Mod can.
Gotdammit. Every time I see you post, I feel a pang of guilt knowing I owe you a nice steak dinner. That said, I want you to know I won't be visiting your town anytime soon, you ol' geezer.
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2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:
With this in mind, let's all remember that the case count only reflects those who feel sick enough to get tested...so that's a reflection of reality from a week ago showing maybe one in ten or one in five or whatever the real ratio actually is. Now, mentally project last week's infected on a similar trajectory (hopefully slower) to calculate the number of people who might be spreading it today.
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11 minutes ago, akhornfan said:
Is their any indication from Italy as to what they’re going to do next? Timeline or action?
They're all going to go out and smooch on the cheeks like the weirdo Latins that they are. Is that what you want to hear?
Also: *there
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Had a brief talk with my 78yo mom this morning. She and my 83yo dad are finally getting the picture. We've talked every few days since this thing has gotten started, and they've slowly come around since mid-February after a lot of skepticism.
The last time I spoke with her was Wednesday, and I gave her the requisite lecture about wearing a mask in public after she was telling me the Sam's they had just gone to was more crowded than she'd ever seen it. After nudging her a bit, she took action and remembered she knew how to sew and took my advice to put some together for her and my dad.
This morning, I shared with her the golden advice that Eastwood shared about cutting up squares of HEMA vacuum cleaner bags to put behind the mask and later dispose. She thought that was genius, so thanks man.
I've got to say that in spite of all the ungodly shit that is happening, it's made me appreciate the precarious nature of my elderly parents' lives more, and I want to thank all of you for the collective asshole advice we've built up the last couple of months.
With all that said, I still think TexasHammer is still the most stupid poster I'm glad to have never met IRL.
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5 hours ago, Constant said:
Had a disturbance call at a covid-19 positive residence for the first time tonight. Talk about your all-time pucker factors. I’ve never been more aware of my hands and body placement. God bless the doctors and nurses staring this thing in the face every day.
Late to the Saturday morning party.
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6 minutes ago, Armybrat said:
Well, they can just shit and piss on the sidewalk in front of the W.
No worries.
Don't forget the 2 self-cleaning toilet-o-matics that were installed downtown. I posted a story about them a few months ago but haven't heard any follow-up on if they work.
That said, 30 years ago, there were some in Paris when I was a late teen and it blew my small town, West Texas mind.
Westworld Season 3 - Robots Gone Wild
in Movies and TV
Posted
Devs has a very similar, but for me, more believable plot about an all-knowing computer over on Hulu except it stars Nick Offerman and is set in the near future. All around better storyline -- more brooding and creepy.