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Posts posted by closetojumping
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26 minutes ago, WBT said:
Why wouldn't that be offest by guys that returned to college last year for nil and are available this year?
That article is just whiny bullshit from the NFL. No one is offering 4th-6th round money in NIL unless it is to All Americans. There might 2-3 instances of this kind of thing happening and I doubt it is that many.
Now, 7th round and UFA money to get a team leader back? We do that.
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8 minutes ago, crash_davis said:
Thank you for putting this together.
I'm interested in transfers. I wonder how many of these transfers transferred from a school where they were expected to start or transferred because they were forced out/told to find greener pastures. I guess what I'm getting at is how many of the transfers were considered "busts" by their previous school but found their form at their transfer school.
There are a shitton of transfers every year. How many of those forced transfers make it to the NFL?
Good thoughts and question. That's part of why I was parsing it out. Transfers are skyrocketing and will impact future drafts, for sure.
Regarding this group, here is what I know:
-Daniels, Penix and Williams are QBs that had all kinds of options. Two followed a coach they'd played for beforehand.
-Nix was viewed as a bust at Auburn. He played a lot and could never put it together.
-Verse exploded in development at his first stop and could have gone anywhere once he entered the portal. FSU was on him before that after seeing him on film against a common opponent (I think Syracuse but not sure).
-Latu was medically retired at UW. Do we consider Degabriel Floyd a bust for the same reason? I think opinion varies on that.
-Pearsall upgraded.
-Guyton and Chop Robinson - I am not sure about the backstories for either.
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2 minutes ago, Tommy Shelby said:
Old have lived Ragnow on this line?
If you read it backwards, you can clearly see that he's trying to deliver state secrets to the Soviets via this forum.
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4 minutes ago, Professor Chesney said:
This is a very interesting topic, appreciate the spreadsheet work.
Noticing how none of the 1st round WRs were 5 stars, I wonder how “valuable” a 5 star at one position will likely be versus another position. For example, is a 5-star WR more likely to be a first round pick than a 5-star DL? I am too busy (lazy) at the moment to do a deep dive, but a cursory look back at the 5 star WR rankings is kind of shocking.
In 2021, for example, the industry ranked WRs in the top-40 were: Emeka Egbuka (OSU), JaCorey Brooks (Bama), Mario Williams (lol), and Agiye Hall (lolol).
In 2020: Julian Fleming (OSU), Demond Demas (lol), J Smith-Njigba (OSU), Kayshon Boutte (LSU), Rakim Jarrett (Maryland) and Jordan Johnson (ND).
Draft status isn’t the be-all-end-all of player productivity, but only JSN was a first round pick and arguably a ++ player.
I kind of fatigued towards the end of my write-up and spreadsheet work or I would have dug deeper into the WR element. It's something I've lamented on this board, particularly in terms of how WR rankings can drive up the entire rankings of a team's class. Ohio State does it every recruiting cycle under Day.
WR is a flash position and I suspect recruiting rankers are drawn to them like moths to a flame, similar to QB. Who tests well at the camps and also looks amazing on tape will get ranked well, but the diva factor is a big issue there and it gets little review when the rankings are formed.
Harrison Jr was ranked behind guys with more elite physical traits while being the best route runner in his class and also being a known workhorse when it comes to practice and work ethic. I find it almost comical to imagine the level of utter stupidity it would take a ranker to have conversations with both Hall and Harrison, and the people around them and their coaches, and then walk away and say "yeah, Hall has the most upside". It takes effort to pull off that blunder. Or, it takes a lack of effort and they never spoke to or considered any of the two players' backgrounds and mental makeup when putting the rankings together.
If you look at other classes, 5 star WRs don't fare much better. For every JSN or Garrett Wilson, you get numerous Bru McCoy/Chris Marshall/Jadon Hazelwood/Theo Wease types.
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7 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:
Mickey Gilley, Joe Ely, and the Dixie chick that’s built like a thumb are horrendously annoying.
You mind your tongue on Mickey Gilley, sir.
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While not hashed out on this site very often, the notion that recruiting rankings don't matter is still a popular position permeating CFB discussions across the Internet and in sports bars all across the country. I am curious what the 2024 draft class might tell us regarding that and other takeaways when thinking about how the services handle their bullshit.
We've only seen Round 1, but I figured some thoughts from that round alone could be interesting. I put together some simple numbers that are spoilered below as a resource.
Here are a few takeaways:
1) If you want to be a high draft pick, it is an imperative to play for what will now be P4 programs or Notre Dame. Verse may or may not have been discovered when at Albany. Besides him, you have Mitchell. 30 picks started at P5 and 31 finished at P5.
2) ESPN and Rivals were consistently rating these players lower, sometimes much lower, than 247 and, when they were ranking guys, On3 (they started ranking in 2021). This isn't surprising to us, I think, but it's crazy how much credence both services are still given when they're as lazy it gets.
3) 15.6% of the 32 picks are former 5 stars. 5 stars represent less .5% of the recruiting classes each cycle. Yet again, the notion that a 5 star ranking should carry some credence is fully validated by this first round.
4) Half of the picks were 4 stars while 4 stars represent roughly 15-20% of each ranked recruiting group. Again, the "coach up them 3 stars that want to be a X University ballplayer!" is folly as a general rule. If you find yourself saying this as a fan, you'd better damned sure hope you have a coach like Jonathan Smith or Kalen Daboer developing your team, otherwise you're probably fucked.
5) One place in which the rankings are suspect is on the OL. We knew this, but it is still stark. 5 of the drafted OLs in the first round were 3 stars. 2 4 stars and 2 5 stars. The 2 4 stars were ranked in the 300s and barely reached the 4 star ranking. One of those 4 stars is Joe Alt, who ESPN and Rivals basically thought was worthless. Of the 5 stars, Latham is the highest consensus ranked player of the 32 draft picks. He was viewed as about as can't miss as there ever are. Strong recruiting work by Kyle Flood on that one. The other guy, Mims, was similar and consensus ranked #10 in the same class. In effect, even can't miss guys ... miss (Tommy Brockermeyer was consensus #6 in the same cycle as these two, also solid recruiting work by Flood in terms of signing him), but you'd like to land those and otherwise have an OL coach who knows what in the hell they are doing with raw materials when they sign them.
6) 9 transfers out of 32 picks (28%), 4 QBs, 3 DEs, 1 WR and 1 OT. Not sure if there's anything to make of that, I guess.
It's a small sample size and all that, so make of it what you will. I'm curious if others have any thoughts when looking at this, however.
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The bad boss one with Pierce Brosnan and Will Farrell.
The Sinatra Group
The one where Farley is a tourist on the Japanese game show. Holy shit.
If it can still be found, the one(s?) where Will Farrell plays Robert Goulet and starts crooning rap songs.
Oh man. So many.
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17 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:A Bob Wills enjoyer?
He’s still the king, sir.
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8 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:
Uh, why? The NCAA has quite literally never recognized any title prior to the playoff era. The NCAA never awarded nor recognized the title, the BCS did, which the NCAA had absolutely fuck-all to do with. Prior to the playoff era, post season games were exhibition in nature. The NCAA only recognizes conference championships, not BCS national championships. This is the whole "M" in the "MNC" thing.
You know what I meant. Unvacate their losses for that period or whatever. I was passing on what guys like Dan Patrick are saying on various shows. Most of us know what the NCAA does and doesn’t recognize. The last time I saw some idiot explain MNC on a board was like 20 years ago, good lord.
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5 hours ago, Napoleon said:
Sean Payton only coached Bridgewater & Wilson, if I recall, and neither was Payton’s first choice.
Kind of a stupid take for a coach entering his 2nd season with the Broncos.
Dumber take - that tweet or the Broncos taking Bo Nix? Right.
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I like country music. Mostly the stuff before Garth Brooks showed up and ruined it, but some later stuff too. Not liking Alan Jackson and his ilk does not equate to disliking a genre.
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33 minutes ago, HookEm said:
I have no affinity for UConn.
Any objective observer looks at CBB right now and thinks, "man, Hurley and UConn look like they're building a dynasty."
HookEm on Surly looks at CBB right now and openly states, "Texas would have beaten UConn in the Final Four last year. Rodney Terry has Texas on the brink of greatness."
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41 minutes ago, HookEm said:
In a neutral site game, yes they probably would have beaten us by double digits too. But if Texas was playing in Houston, the atmosphere would have been wild. We would have packed 50K+ fans into NRG for that game.
Plus, it isn't like they were 1990 UNLV. They were seeded worse than us. They lost 8 games, including two losses to Xavier (who we beat by 12), and also lost to Creighton, who we beat by 5.
FWIW, I also think we would have beaten Michigan if we had made it to Houston in football. Flame away.
Blah blah aggie this aggie that we would have won if this and that. There's no joy in flaming a sunshine-pumping dipshit. I didn't say it was wrong to have your fantasies. You just don't need to subject the rest of us to them. It's pathetic.
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Jerry Johnson has now entered the portal for ATM. Fisher brought him in last summer as a transfer from Rice to play back-up fullback. He never played. His dad was an assistant S&C coach at ATM until The Elk showed up and laid waste to that organization. Johnson's younger brother is Chantz Johnson, an LB they brought in for that amazing 2023 class. To my knowledge, he never sees the field either. They're now at 85 players for the fall if they do not lose any other guys (including Chantz) and do not add any additional portal players.
The Elk is being praised on their board for cleaning out dead transfer portal weight from the Fisher regime. As this praise is heaped on, the entire poster base ignores or fails to grasp the similar mediocrity of The Elk's portal work as well.
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2 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:
25 minutes any time other than Game Day. Time frame will vary greatly depending on what time you’re leaving the airport that Saturday. The golf course will packed by 9 am for that one. Getting there by 8 will get your vehicle on the course, but it’ll be a bit of a wait to get through the gate. If you’re just paratrooping in for the game and land at 10 or so, you’ll be able to get to Ann Arbor in no time as most will get there early, but you’ll have to park 3 miles from the stadium and walk. Even if you take a cab/Uber, you’ll get dropped off a couple of miles away.
While will they drop you off that far away? If I hired black car service for the day, would that work any differently?
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11 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:
Blake Corum in the first seems ridiculous to me.
I realize that LTtxfan may be too dense to follow what's going on with that unfunny attempt at creating a funny mock draft, but come on, man.
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5 hours ago, HookEm said:
Hurley is a better coach and UConn is a better program, but last year in a virtual home game they were only up by four with five minutes to play… and we were playing without our two starting bigs, one of them a 1st team All Big 12 player in Disu.
I am also convinced we would have beaten them in Houston if we had made the Final Four.Just keep that kind of stupid shit to yourself, please. That is embarrassing, idiotic, pollyanna sunshine-pumping that makes the whole board look like idiots in having it in our presence. UConn has won by double digits in every match-up they've played in the NCAA over the past two seasons. 12-0, all double digit wins, and they beat Miami by 13 fucking points in the game you're implying. It is aggie shit to claim to win games that Texas never played, especially against superior opponents. Christ.
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6 minutes ago, nnm said:
I think y’all have Billy all wrong. He’s figured out the con game, and has been fleecing the rubes for decades, including employing his family and friends. He spews the propaganda they want, and empties their pockets as a result. He reinforces their hive mind and ensures they never reach full self-awareness.
Has anyone ever seen Randolf Duke and Billy Liucci in the same place? I didn’t think so.
You give him too much credit. He really does believe all of his bullshit. He's dumber than a sack of bricks.
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12 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:I definitely agree with this and have said something similar before. OL rankings by the sites are more useless than a treadmill or glass of water in Elko’s office.
Much better to see who is recruiting the guy hard to determine quality of prospect. The services seem to recognize this and usually change rankings after the fact. Except Rivals, who are too lazy to even pay attention to what schools are recruiting prospects. The whole aggy 2023 class is a good example of this. Bisontis was ranked as a top 100 prospect, yet his OVs were to places like Michigan State, Rutgers, and A&M. Those are not top 100 prospect official visit spots.Yeah, not to sniff our own farts here, but I feel like this forum has a consensus of posters who understand this premise regarding the trenches. It plays well across the board, but the rankings aren't nearly as bad as the positions expand away from the ball.
You mention the aggie 2023 class and we all absolutely lampooned what they were doing with the OL during that cycle. I don't know how we could have been more accurate and how Fisher's crew could have been more wrong. The opposite of "trust the coaches", which Liucci and the aggie poster-base were absolutely parroting to each other.
-Chase Bisontis: A top 100 recruit from NJ being ignored by regional powers like PSU, OSU, and Michigan. We felt he was slow-footed and bad bodied. ATM talking heads touted him as an OT. We laughed. Also, one of the aggiest looking aggies to have ever aggied. Results so far? Had one of the worst performances at OT in all of D1 last season. People posted clips of his ineptitude on Twitter to drive follower engagement because of the comedic value they created. Tried to transfer immediately, aggies just overpaid to keep him. Elko immediately moved him to guard, where he may or may not ever see the field again.
-Colton Thomasson: A 6'8" 350 OG prospect that only ATM ever pushed for and the guy committed almost two years ahead of signing day. The classic aggie diehard bust. Shockingly, a 6'8" guard had some issues, the guy never cracked the depth chart and now he's in the portal, probably landing somewhere like Texas State or UTEP.
-TJ Shanahan: This guy finished that class ranked as the #19 player in the nation on Rival's list. We laughed hard then and I laugh hard now. Every major program did what they could to avoid taking this guy without alienating the HS staff, UT more than anyone. Early in his recruitment, when all lists had him in the top 100 for some absurd reason, he was telling recruiting media that he was heading out of state to one of the major programs in the southeast, maybe Miami. Cristobal is a starfucker and an imbecile, but he knows OL and, despite Shanahan being really, really interested in committing, wouldn't take his commitment. Shanahan held his nose and committed to ATM. Someone good at it should find the Liucci takes on this recruitment from that cycle because when they took his commitment, the smugness in which that dipshit touted the take was both hilarious and nauseating. Results: per their gurus, the guy is "a few years away". I'm kind of surprised he isn't portaling this cycle.
-Naquil Bertrand: An OT prospect that no program within his regional vicinity cared much for, and the aggies took because, hey, they needed some bodies on the OL. Never did anything and subsequently transferred with the coaching change, somehow winding up at Bama. I guess they needed a body too or something.
2 transfers, 1 completely lost former starter, and 1 guy buried on a weakly talented OL depth chart. That is the kind of shit that blows a hole through the middle of a roster. If anyone wants to be entertained, they should go back and look at that entire recruiting class. It's not been very long and you can still tell it is going to be an albatross on that program. That cycle's transfers in are also really piss poor. It's glorious.
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2 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:
The current competition for this kid doesn't seem great in terms of "staffs putting guys in the NFL and regularly in the playoffs":
- Cal
- Florida
- Nebraska
- Texas
- Washington
- USC
Maybe I'm underselling the value of UW and USC evaluations, but I'd rather see schools like Michigan and Georgia coming after this guy. To be clear, I know nothing about this. Your comment just piqued my curiosity so I looked up his 247 page.
Michigan was on him hard when Harbaugh was running things. UW was on him hard when Daboer was there. Those programs had the best OLs in the last 3 years. Cal is down the street so that is ignorable. Rhule's evaluation skills are as good as anyone's. When his crew is on someone, you can rest assured that the player is fucking tough and loves football.
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7 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:1 hour ago, closetojumping said:My son is usually picking up with the CBA Cubs 10U when we encounter their team. His normal select team is an 11U team for whom he plays up, so it's random when he's free and feels like playing "down" but he likes those kids. We also run into them in District play and I assume that will be the case this year on the 10U level.
What 11u team? We are usually at a ballpark almost every weekend. Others here have kids playing 9,10 and 11.
The Bull Sharks, either Black or Blue unless they're playing on the same weekend and then he's with the Blue.
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The least correlated rankings to actual collegiate performance and NFL draft picks are on the OL, with IOL being worse than OTs. I look at the schools fighting over this guy versus his ranking and then compare it to someone like TJ Shanahan, the polar opposite situation, and kind of roll my eyes. Last I heard, Texas really wants this guy.
I've never been a big "trust the coaches" guy when it comes to recruiting, but there's something similar that I've been following for years now when it comes specifically to the LOS. Who is Texas competing with for any of their DT, OT, C or OG targets? If the competition consists of programs and/or staffs putting guys in the NFL and regularly in the playoffs, okay, good, that's a strong sign that a low ranking can be ignored and a high ranking is confirmed. If that isn't the case, your program is heading towards late-stage Mack and could wind up careening towards Tom Herman/Derek Warehime/Herb Hand catastrophe.
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32 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:
Who does your kid play for? She is honestly really down to earth. Cal also. I've sat and had some really cool conversations with them. Since we've been on our new team, she has always been really kind and nice to my son. Congratulations to him on pitching or whatever he did that weekend.
My son is usually picking up with the CBA Cubs 10U when we encounter their team. His normal select team is an 11U team for whom he plays up, so it's random when he's free and feels like playing "down" but he likes those kids. We also run into them in District play and I assume that will be the case this year on the 10U level.
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12 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:
Sec to sec tho won’t he sit
You would think. Are they too dumb to realize that? Or too full of their own feels to think that they’ll do it anyway and say “screw league rules, this is like a gentlemen’s agreement”.
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Houston Astros 2024 Season Thread
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I’ve known henryjames in person for like 23 years and still basically just call him henry.