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closetojumping

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by closetojumping

  1. 3 hours ago, TXpride said:

    For next season apparently. Then $50M. Then $75M...

    With no meaningful regulation, the endgame looks like Tech and Oregon running away from the pack.

    I'm guessing Texas will attempt to position itself in the upper echelon, assuming the BBs are in the box. But it no longer seems like they're leading the NIL charge. Whether that's because they aren't willing to bend the rules like everyone else, or the cigars are tired of Sark and holding back, or everyone else has just caught up... I don't know.

    Rev share enabled a higher level quality and quantity of competition, for everyone, but Texas is in the upper echelon. You do realize that Texas has the highest payroll this cycle in which they went 9-3, correct? Your post seems to indicate no clue on that front. 

    What no school can prevent is finding itself in a position where some random other school shows up and offers a mid level 4 star some over the top value. Roughly 100 schools can now pull that stunt and it impacts blue bloods across the land. 

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  2. Just now, DZX158 said:

    CJ is not a kid you tell to hit the portal. I think it’s fair to adjust his NIL but you don’t tell a kid like him there’s no spot for him on the team.  You find a role and hope in year 2 post injury he is able to stay healthy and be great is his role.

    He’s not worth his ask and the bid-ask are chasms apart. You absolutely wish him well and move on given the needs across the roster and the goals for next season.  Folks can grumble about loyalty and professional sports and the CFB days of yore and such, but the sentimental programs are getting left in the dust. Ask a Clemson fan if you need further confirmation. 

    Texas is upper tier in NIL without being able to be stupid like Tech, Oregon, Michigan and a few others. They have plenty of money to utilize but they cannot just sling mid 6 figures out to beaten up backs who look like they have had their lick. 

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  3. Mehringer as the OC at Rutgers for Chris Ash was one of the biggest debacles of the last 20 years. I swear I think it was the worst offense statistically in the country in whatever year that took place. 

    I know we discussed it back in the day, but if you have never looked at the first staff Ash hired as HC at Rutgers, it’s worth a review. I contend it’s one of the worst power conference staffs ever assembled. 

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  4. 1 minute ago, Eskimohorn said:


    whats changing on the staff to fix all the bad evals?

    Hopefully the people on the staff and some additions in the film room to help out. 

    I do want to remind folks that a high amount of skepticism should be applied to what I'm posting on stuff like this. 

    a) I'm wrong a lot. Shit changes when you're managing people, and talent acquisition and retention are mercurial issues in organizations. Also, I don't ask many questions, and sometimes I make assumptions when someone is bullshitting with me and I end up drawing the wrong conclusion accordingly.

    b) I think people do their own wishcasting when it comes to staff changes. Half the time over the last 15 years I've heard people speak definitively about so and so coming or going and then nothing happened. 

    That said, I feel good enough on the player side to post what I posted. I remain from Missouri on the notion that all of Akina, Flood, Jackson and Scott will be seeking employment elsewhere. 

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  5. 2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

    Mocking west Austin partisans is 2nd only to Aggie jokes as a source of mirth.  

    Interesting that, if you're correct about the numbers, the are predominately on the offense.  

    My view on it is that Sarkisian holds each side of the ball to different standards and he's either really pushing the defense on their evaluations, or giving them total freedom to handle their allotment of scholarships and they're doing a better job. Whatever is going on, either they don't know what they're doing on the evaluations on the offensive side of the ball, or they've gotten lazy. Perhaps turnover on the staff has also impacted things at RB and WR. In short, yada yada yada and Flood looks like he fucking sucks at this point and zero excuses for the dishevelment in the OL room.

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  6. 2 hours ago, Js1 said:

    One of the announcers yesterday was basically in awe (and very complimentary of Vic and our team) that we beat 3 top 11 teams with a 7 player rotation and Rori, Book and Lee barely coming off the floor. 

    It was nothing but "this team lacks guard depth and just beat UCLA, South Carolina and UNC in 10 days" and "when they get their 3 key pieces back in the rotation, this team will be even more of a contender"

    I'm so excited to get Preston, Crump and Judd back for SEC play.  Just really need to weather this for about 4 more weeks - we start SEC play Jan 1 at Mizzou.  If we get just one of Lee/Crump back before Baylor, that will pay huge dividends for our guards getting to take a break. 

    I hope at least one is back soon because, even though they're playing great, this feels unsustainable and the harm of continuing it could be felt in March. It didn't look like they had any dead legs last night, but that shit can happen at any age if they take things too far. 

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  7. 2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

    I'm going to take the under but wow if it's even close to this number.  

    It's a combination of a few things:

    1) Guys think they're worth more than Texas thinks they're worth and the replacement value on each price tag would be better talent from the portal. Some guys are getting bad advice. 

    2) Bad evaluations. There are multiple position groups with guys who are never going to contribute, including signings as recently as last year. 

    3) Texas sees 2026 as a year in which the whole shooting match can be won. That means there's a tradeoff for going big now with the portal for guys who can contribute or even make a huge difference in 2026 at the expense of continuing to invest in every player that might have some promise, but is unlikely to be showing that during meaningful snaps in 2026. 

    Somewhat educated guesses below.

    OL: 3-6 guys. TSome guy could be younger players that they'd prefer to see not leave, but they might be pricing themselves outside of the investment range for this cycle and are not expected to win starting spots either. Connor Stroh can go dismantle an offensive gameplan at UTEP or something. If you find yourself wondering "why doesn't this guy ever play when we've heard good things?" it's either due to Flood playing favorites, which is allegedly a thing, or the guy "doesn't love football", which makes him a terrible evaluation. 

    WR: 3-5 guys. One evaluation is a bust from 2025. That one will go get money and be fool's gold somewhere else. One dude may leave for the NFL and good luck to him and his UFA or 7th round pay cut. There's a guy that just might not have it emotionally to do what needs to be done in order to meet his potential and could leave even if Texas would rather see him stick for the potential alone. I'm not even sure what to do about Niblett. He just signed with an agent and that doesn't make him cheaper or dampen market interest. Does anyone really believe that Aaron Butler is about to break through here?

    TE: 2-4 guys (including Endries to the NFL). The emergence of Townsend means that Endries might not start if he returned. A guy like Winston they supposedly love, but that dude could start at a lot of places and might be getting actually good advice if he heads out. That was a great evaluation by the staff. Does Randle actually want to get snaps somewhere? Someone said he did, which, wow. Good luck if that's true. Washington saw his role diminish as Townsend emerged. 

    RB: 3-4 guys. They will probably be able to hold on to Simon. They're allegedly going very big in the portal here. Wisner isn't being run off, but he might be asking for something that doesn't make sense. Clark, Baxter, Edwards (for those counting him still), and Gibson (obviously) get you to 4 without losing Wisner. I guess maybe it could go to 5. Cooper, Walker, Simon and a proven star from elsewhere would be a fine RB room. If Terry is sticking at RB, it's even deeper, I guess. 

    QB: 1 guy. Good luck to Owens. 

    Edge: 1 guy. The hue and cry from the west side of Austin will be something we'll all have to endure, I guess. 

    DT: 1-2 guys. Hills, thanks for your efforts. Is Lavon Johnson good enough to be on the roster? 

    LB: 0, hopefully.

    DB: 2-3 guys. If you're heading into year 3 and never sniff the field, it's probably time to look elsewhere. Some guys here may have a higher opinion of their worth than what Texas is willing to bear.

    My low end is 16, I guess. It's pretty fucking easy to see the numbers run right past 20. Is this healthy or not? Not fully. Some of this will hurt and some of this reflects poor evaluations. There's also the healthy element of cutting the bottom 10% every cycle to move the floor up. Even with 105 scholarships, if you know a guy isn't going to play for the program, he's just taking up space that could be allocated elsewhere in both a body and a salary. 

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  8. 5 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

    IT with some updates on the 2025 class headed into the offseason

      Reveal hidden contents

    A couple of weeks ago IT was asked for a progress report on Texas’ 2025 recruiting class. With bigger storylines to chase we put that on the shelf, but now the question is quite important because it’s not uncommon for true freshmen to hit the transfer portal in this day and age. That was the first purpose of the call, but we were also working to gauge what the future holds for that No. 1 ranked class.

    I need a cigarette after that phone call. Well, I don’t smoke, so maybe a nicotine patch to work my way up to a cigarette. That phone call was very satisfying and a good reminder that there were silver linings this year.

    Here’s a quote: “They were a young team, but they can’t say that anymore even with all of these freshmen. A lot of guys grew up on and off the field.”

    As the conversation continued, the source stopped the call and said: “They’re all physical. I don’t care what side of the ball they’re on. Defense, offense. The receivers will block. You look at Kaliq Lockett—he needs to fill out, but he’ll block. Jackson Christian will block his ass off…” and on it went.

    To keep this orderly, let’s go by position.

    Quarterback: KJ Lacey

    “Selfless. Does whatever is needed. If he needs to mimic a dual-threat, he’ll jump over there (scout team) and give them a great look. Probably because of his size people don’t talk about his arm enough. Throws a great deep ball.”

    IT expects Lacey to be the backup in 2026.

    Running Back: James Simon, Michael Terry, Rickey Stewart

    IT thinks it’s likely Stewart will transfer out.

    No direct quote on Simon, but we know he improved throughout the season. It seems the staff purposefully redshirted him. He’s still learning the nuances of playing the position in college, but the staff likes him.

    Terry is still at running back. They’ve toyed with him at Wildcat and using him like Ryan Niblett. I don’t know what the plan is exactly for spring ball. Of note, he’s been called very physical in the past.

    Wide Receiver: Kaliq Lockett, Daylan McCutcheon, Jaime Ffrench

    We’ve talked a ton about McCutcheon since he arrived. Nothing new to add.

    Lockett has a bright future. I know fans wanted to see him play more because of his five-star ranking, but he’s developing just fine. Good route runner and excellent hands. He’s in line to play much more next season.

    Ffrench has matured a lot in every sense of the word since his arrival. He’s improved a good amount, especially in the last few months.

    Tight End: Emaree Winston, Nick Townsend

    When the source discussed physical freshmen, it didn’t take him long to get to Nick Townsend. They love him, with physicality being the No. 1 reason. He’s just football all the time, and he’s going to see his role expand this spring.

    The three freshmen we talked the most about during spring ball were Graceson Littleton, McCutcheon, and Emaree Winston. Winston has excellent feel for the position and his hands are as good as Jack Endries’.

    Offensive Line: Jackson Christian, Jordan Coleman, Devin Coleman, Nick Brooks

    The way the source talked about Christian had me regretting not asking about him sooner. “He gave the D consistent looks. He’s a feisty, feisty guy. Not afraid to fight, literally. Will go right at you whoever you are.”

    He was joined on scout team by the Coleman twins, Jordan and Devin. “They sort of feed off of Christian. They’ll get after it too and are pretty athletic. Scout team OL did well to give the defense looks.” Jordan is at tackle; Devin is at guard.

    We saw Nick Brooks this year. He wasn’t ready to play, but you could see the talent. Our source wasn’t 100% sure where he’d be this spring because “his talent is better than what they’ll find in the portal at guard.” Brooks is a tackle long term, but the goal is to find the best line for 2026. Brooks is still maturing.

    Defensive Tackle: Justus Terry, Josiah Sharma, Myron Charles

    Along with Christian, Sharma and Charles received the most effusive praise. Again, we didn’t talk as much about the knowns.

    After talking about Terry, we switched focus to the two redshirts from opposite coasts: “Those guys are dogs, too. Super talented. Selfless players that get after it.”

    IT mentioned that Charles was listed at 6-foot-4, 320 and asked if that was accurate. “Yeah, he’s big and athletic.”

    The source reiterated that Terry is very happy in Austin and just a great all-around program guy. And a dog.

    Edge: Lance Jackson, Smith Orogbo

    We all know what Jackson’s all about. His NFL Draft upside is No. 1 overall, or at least after whatever middling quarterback comes out in 2028. Complete player, complete program guy.

    I like what we’re hearing about Orogbo. Still a bit raw and needs to add weight but he has a lot of tools he’s learning to put together. With a big offseason he’ll play.

    Linebacker: Bo Barnes

    “Hard worker who is dedicated to developing in every way. He’ll play important snaps next year.”

    And physical?

    “Oh yeah, another one of those physical guys. That’s the most physical class Sark has signed—not close.”

    Star: Graceson Littleton, Jonathan Cunningham

    “It’s not just the big guys; Littleton and Phillips will hit you, too.”

    When we got to Cunningham, he said “he’s very physical.”

    Unless something crazy happens with imPorts, Littleton is going to corner in 2026. Cunningham could get a look at safety, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll ever grow into a linebacker. They really like his special teams upside.

    How Star plays out this spring will be interesting.

    Cornerback: Kade Phillips, Caleb Chester

    On top of having elite athletic traits and physicality, Phillips watches a ton of film. His five-star rating was deserved.

    Chester does everything right; he just has a lot of people in front of him.

    Safety: Jonah Williams, Zelus Hicks

    Jonah was mentioned for his physicality. The source noted that Williams playing baseball during the spring doesn’t hurt him as much as it would other people. Of course everyone wishes he only played football, but he is dedicated and smart.

    Hicks spent the year on special teams. Remember, he reclassified and his youth showed at times. Don’t expect much for 2026.

     

    This reads like one of those old Big Cigar fantasies that Nahlin would conjure out of thin air and have the audience eat it up. At a minimum, I’ve heard different stuff on at least 5 guys from that class. I hope his info is better. Unfortunately, I’ve heard the same stuff from completely different places on a few of them. 

    As an example, Jonah Williams is going to be a one sport player, one way or the other, more sooner than later.  That may not be a forced thing, but returning to FB as a 4th or 5th guy on the depth chart would tell the tale anyway. 

    4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    Can you make this make sense for me please? He must be offering something my eyes just simply cannot detect. 

    I wrote that post thinking of your head exploding. I have no idea what to tell you, as I have the same issue. They like the dude and he’s likely to be getting a raise. 

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  9. 2 minutes ago, Fud said:

    Why can't Townsend and Endries play together? 

    No idea. It might be a situation where they’d prefer not to, but that’s just a guess. One thing seems apparent, nobody is knocking By Gawd Spencer Shannon out of that second starting TE spot, so there’s only going to be one other starter. 

    I’ve developed the opinion over the years that every program must have some stupid form of personnel adherence they have to stick to somewhere even when better options are slapping the HC in the fucking face. It can’t just be regime after regime at Texas with these idiotic tics. 

  10. 12 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

    Bobby, this AM:

    "Still waiting on a couple to announce today while tracking exactly who else the Horns might be recruiting.

    Regardless of the recruiting outcome, Texas has been prepping for the portal behind the scenes for months.

    That will be the personnel focus of the next month at least.

    We could see other 2027s jump on board in the interim, too, with junior days already set for month of January."

    On a scale of 60 to 190 proof, what are the odds that Sarkisian actually does his fucking job and shows up for the Junior Days this cycle? 

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