Posts posted by closetojumping
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54 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:
Yes, they beat them 58-7. Miami beat them 38-7. Pittsburgh is 8-6. FSU is 7-5 and trashed Bama as 13.5 point underdogs. ND lost to 2 playoff teams (as a combined 9.5 point favorite). Bama has more losses and a worse loss. They are less deserving of a playoff spot. But ESPN is invested in the SEC, they disproportionately influence the rankings in college football, and the bias in the rankings is clear and present, overt and obvious.
Doesn’t matter, though. Bama ain’t making the final this year like ND did last year.
Are you under the impression that anyone here with more than a few functioning brain cells is going to defend Bama getting? Most of us both hate the SEC and specifically Bama. They shouldn't have gotten in either, but this is the point and laugh at Notre Dame getting depantsed thread.
36 minutes ago, PittsburghTiger said:We are a good team. A deeply flawed team but, still not too bad. We shit the bed against a terrible West Virginia team and lost a double-digit 4th quarter lead to Louisville.
Then, were dominated by Notre Dame and Miami. I wish we were better than a four-loss team but, that is where we are. Beating us does not mean a team should be in the playoffs. Notre Dame should not have lost to the two teams they did.
Pitt had three wins over teams with winning records - G6 Central Michigan (7-5), NC State (7-5) and GaTech (9-3). Your team plays in a bottomfeeding conference that repeatedly pulled the bookshelf on top of itself week after week in the national spotlight. Pitt contributed to that by not even attempting to be competitive against Notre Dame or Miami. Fucking Narduzzi added to your humiliation by basically admitting before the Notre Dame game that your fucking team didn't care about playing them.
You do not have a good team. You have a team that capitalized on fortuitous circumstances in order to eek out a winning record while still embarrassing itself on multiple occasions throughout the season. I don't think you'd be a .500 club in the Big 12, know you wouldn't in the SEC and you'd probably barely get there in the Big 10, pretty much because the bottom of that conference is no better, and perhaps worse, than the bottom of the shitass ACC.
32 minutes ago, Bob Knepper said:This is exactly what's going on. But it's not just football - they're making serious investments in other sports, too. Byington looks like an A+ hire as a basketball coach, and it's amazing what he's already done this year with only 3 players returning from last year's team. I'd put Corbin/Lea/Byington up against any coaching trifecta at any school right now. The long term plan for the baseball stadium is pretty nice: https://vucommodores.com/vandy-united-ushers-in-new-era-at-hawkins-field/.
Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers are doing a lot of heavy lifting in your high praise for Clark Lea, there. That dude was on a scorching hotseat before buying the NMSU offensive group. Let's see how smart he looks next season before attempting to stack him up next the best of the best in CFB. Good lord.
Also, now everyone has an NIL machine gun in college baseball. The cheat of getting guys on academic scholarship in order to get them on campus isn't quite the competitive advantage any more. Let's see how amazing Corbin is with an even playing field.
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59 minutes ago, Jimmy Two Times said:There's probably only about 20 players on this year's roster that I care about staying. Obviously, you want other guys to stay for depth and continuity, but have to imagine there are dozens of Deandre Moores that provide mediocre production and could be replaced for a lower price. I also feel like we're in a great spot for this upcoming portal window. If Goosby comes back, we're set at the positions I'd expect to be the most expensive: QB, OTs, edge rushers and debatably CB. No playoffs to worry about so Sark can take his month long bender and still have time for portal evals.
There are at least 40 guys I like to see back. Excluding graduates and early NFL entries, 40 seems right unless we're just totally writing off the notion of development and improvement across the board.
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3 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:
IT with some updates on DBs who are making decisions
CB Malik Muhammad: IT caught up with a couple of sources regarding the junior starter. His NFL grade seems to be all over the place. We’ve heard everything from late-first to mid-round. Currently his circle is compiling as much information as possible to make their best informed decision. Nothing is set in stone. However, here’s where it gets tricky. IT has heard one college is making a strong push to keep him playing on Saturdays. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine Texas will break the bank to keep him given the depth chart and bigger roster needs. It’s hard to picture Muhammad in a different uniform but maybe that’s in play. Best guess: After a thorough evaluation of his options he’ll declare for the NFL.
S Jelani McDonald: The safety situation at Texas is entirely different from corner. The position demands more experience and Texas doesn’t have anyone nearly as experienced as McDonald with the ability to return. Oh by the way, he’s a tremendous talent and could be the first safety off the board next year. He fully understands that. It sounds like he’s receiving good advice. Now, Texas just needs the NIL to line up. We’re liking where this one sits currently.
CB Wardell Mack and S Derek Williams: “I think both are probably out,” said one very strong source on the matter. Another source had been cautioning on both in recent weeks. That’s why IT has been writing “Star (nickel) will be interesting next year.” Mack’s a good player so I could see the staff working extra to keep him. Could a new safeties coach change things with Williams? Eh, I’m not so sure.
CB Kobe Black: Outside of McDonald this might be the attempt at retainment we’re watching the closest in the secondary. Unfortunately, it feels like the biggest mystery at this point. All we know is the A&M game, where he played sensationally, seems to have rekindled a spark between the two parties. Black came in with lofty expectations this season but was passed by freshman Kade Phillips. You cannot have enough rangy defensive backs…
We’ll continue tracking all of these and more
The Muhammad stuff has never not been clickbait, irrespective of site reporting it. The guy has been a known 3 year player since HS. He may wish the NFL had him as the first guy off the board at CB, but that's not ultimately going to keep him from declaring. 3rd round money is still excellent money, and he seems unlikely to fall below that.
Given that Michigan and Oregon have both recently had highly touted NFL-ready CBs tumble on draft day, I'm not sure how compelling taking their money and heading out is for MM's camp. Outside of those two, who the hell can offer 2nd round money, at worst, to lure him to stay in college for another year? Sounds like bullshit.
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Moore leaving ultimately to the portal instead of the NFL is what I've been arguing now for weeks. If he goes to the NFL end of things, he's an UDFA based off of what I have seen. He'll get a shitty grade or already has one. The agent will put out feelers and someone in college will be willing to throw $500k at him for another year. Good luck for everyone with that.
That said, that's a significant clearance of payroll without taking a major roster hit. Either one of the younger guys is ready, or several are, or they can bring in someone elite or offering a more efficient spend with similar productivity. I'd take any of those outcomes over Moore getting his ask again from UT.
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18 minutes ago, Danimal said:It seems like Texas is more or less doing this.
I think there are plenty of examples from this past recruiting class where Texas held to its offer on a 4 star type kid and that kid went for bigger money elsewhere. Also, there are the examples where Texas is being aggressive on sure fire talent, which led to us getting Atkinson and Cooper.
Overall, I think the approach Texas this past recruiting class was in line with this sentiment to not overpay for 4 stars and target sure fire 5 stars. What threw Texas off was 1) they misread how the flood of money across schools would shock the market - this led them to not getting 4-stars at reasonable rates because other schools overpaid + having to be more aggressive of 5 stars than they otherwise expected, and 2) completely misreading the OL landscape - this was partly due to #1 but also poor prioritization on Ojo v. Lee and others.
It seems Texas will be shifting to a more highschool recruiting approach of targeting premium players & value investing in lower 4 stars and 3 stars + portal recruiting for proven players to fill needs and fill development depth.
I think in the long run, if this approach takes hold across other programs, this will push down the starting income of these 4 stars and/or sink programs that are overpaying for them.
Time will tell, but part of the shift in the recruiting landscape has been an actual focus on grassroots evaluation. This has always been a fantasy for most recruitniks for big schools and a reality for developmental schools. Whether Sarkisian or Smart or Heupel or Riley or any other name at a big program, they all fall victim to starfucking and walled garden recruiting analysis among their staffs. They can claim to be turning over every rock, and that's bullshit. They're by and large fed names and film by the same sources every cycle, and that's the pool of players that they decide to choose from on the recruiting trail.
Now, with an expanded payroll for staff, should someone desire, they could really start turning over rocks. Can't go everywhere on that front, so you start locally and tap your extended high school coaching network, should you have one. This is part of what Texas decided to do in this last cycle because the ground was continuing to shift on the recruiting landscape and prices/values kept escalating into the stratosphere.
So, not only was Texas hamstrung out of the gate for 2026 because of Sarkisian's personal bullshit, which put them behind on a lot the 4 star talent that they'd normally build a class with, but the House Settlement created a flood of money for schools that previously didn't have much, and that began driving up everything. Texas made the choice to do what they had to do when it came to the highest priorities, continue to recruit guys they believed in who weren't interested in renegotiating throughout the process, and then dig into the hard part that schools like Texas often get to ignore.
The outcome is barbelled. Texas signed multiple prized recruits that they believe to be best bets in panning out early. They also signed a bunch of guys that literally chose Texas for the free ride and otherwise old school recruiting things like staff, tradition, guys going to the NFL, etc. Not a ton of in between guys who have the rankings on paper but still represent a mixed bag of questions. Each player either has very few open questions or a shit ton of questions about their upside at Texas.
Do we see more of this for Texas? I don't know. Texas isn't being dumb about just rev-share for NIL and they have a hell of a lot of corporate interest. They're not going to be cheap, but they cannot afford to be stupid. Does the market stay ridiculous? No clue. I guess I'm hopeful that the hard work side of things pays off, but we may not know that for a few years. Continuing that approach might be really smart or fail miserably.
Texas isn't the only top 5/top 10 recruiting school that had to look at all of this and edit their way forward, btw. Ohio State tried to take the "we're Ohio State and only rev-share will supply our NIL" approach and they were castigated for months by their fans online for doing so. Georgia looked at things similar to Texas and stood on their business in multiple recruitments. While we mock Nagy's hype and bullshit, OU also pragmatically looked at their circumstances and made choices accordingly.
Meanwhile, USC, Tennessee, Miami, Florida and LSU all kind of went nuts in various ways for various reasons. When Oregon or Michigan throw Knight and Ellison money around, that's sustainable. Is what USC is doing sustainable? It is whispered around the recruiting circles and allegedly by other coaching staffs that much of the almost $10M allocated for this incoming class is currently unfunded. That wouldn't be the first time Riley pulled that move and then had to scramble to make good on his deals.
Florida and LSU were just flat out desperate to hang on to their talent and considering PSU as an alternative route, they probably made the right choices. I'm kind of just waiting for the bottom to fall out of Miami's NIL. It's not all coming from the same source, but they do not have the same resources across their base that many of the rest in the upper tier do.
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Edited by closetojumping
49 minutes ago, Baconboy said:Historically speaking I’d prefer we find some different options. I’m not yet ready to face either of those teams again…
Buck up, good sir! We need to improve our record against NC State and we owe Stanford. Notice I made no mention of UCLA? I’m thoughtful like that.
46 minutes ago, irishtexan said:Would the other conferences even be receptive to that? My hope is that they wouldn't, but money is money. What is the difference in $$ for a team that regularly sells out its stadium in playing ND vs. a home/home with NC State or Stanford, to use your hypothetical?
The only monetary risk for schools like Texas in not scheduling ND and instead scheduling weaker P4 programs is around attendance and ticket prices. I doubt it’s a whole lot.
The other thing worth considering is what games like that does for a conference tv deal in the long term, but that’s the kind of thing that’s almost too esoteric to factor into a single school’s scheduling choices. I think Texas and a few other programs schedule tough OOC because it’s core to their identity and alumni expectations, not because there’s a big monetary difference.
34 minutes ago, Skipper said:I don't understand why the BIG or SEC would cut any formal deal with ND at this point absent conference membership. The SEC doesn't need them period. SEC absolutely killed TV ratings weekly this year and adding an additional conference game to ESPN's inventory is going to keep Disney/ESPN more than happy. Big 10 shouldn't offer anything other than full membership. I'm sure the Big 12 would cut the same deal with Notre Dame that the ACC has but that isn't going to fix ND scheduling issues if SEC and BIG teams blackball them. I'm sure we wouldn't do anything without Sankey's blessing as he's about to enter playoff expansion negotiations but both Texas and USC announcing cancellations of future games with ND would be sweet.
The whole “what’s in for me?” premise with the Big 10 and the SEC is not something I can answer myself. Not sure how that dance would work.
34 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:1000% of the b1g people i know say the b1g will never take domer - the b1g tried twice before 1950 - domer said no twice
it's the opposite of coveting domer - the b1g loathes them
This is similar to the bullshit people float about “no new conference would take Texas” that aggies would tell anyone right up until July of 2021. If Notre Dame told the Big 10 they were ready to join as a full member, the Big 10’s response would be “how soon can you start?!” 💯
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32 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:Alex January is the only guy we signed in 3 cycles under Bo Davis who didn't transfer out.
It sounds like we weren't dedicating the amount of NIL to the position that we should have been until he left, but that is still pretty shocking.
Baker had to throw a shit fit to get a better allocation, also.
Thinking about DT, specifically, there is a case to be made that the ground has simply shifted into new terrain from here forward. Outside of the truly special guys, most HS recruits aren't ready for significant rotational snaps until they are in year 2, and arguably year 3.
Investing in HS recruits, like OL, winds up being a long term, low reward play. Unlike OL, DTs can be prima donnas and they expect to be playing from day 1, see Mitchell, Sydir, without putting in the work. They're more likely to transfer just as the investment from the program starts to pay off, see Kanu, Hero.
Focusing the majority of the positional NIL spend on seasoned DTs in the portal, especially if they have multiple years left of eligibility, looks like a moneyball play. I don't have a problem if Texas banks on landing 1-2 DTs from the portal every cycle, one expected to play immediately and one who probably can, but who also has multiple years left.
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Edited by closetojumping
On the ND 247 board, their mods are saying that the word they're hearing is that ND thinks the way forward is to dim down the ACC agreement to 2 games per year, and then cut the same deal with the Big 10, SEC and Big 12. Keep the Navy game, of course, and one other G6, like Rice next year, as an example, and then mix in 2 random home and homes with teams not in the rotation during each year from the P4.
Move all of the non-revenue to the Big East.
That's from people at ND talking to them off the record, it seems.
There isn't a single poster on that board that wants to stick with the ACC deal they have. They appear to actually hate it.
For the first in any of our lives, there are also more than a few folks on their end advocating for joining a conference. Not the majority of the posters, but other times I've read their boards, if someone mentions such a thing, they're shouted down by a chorus of haters. Not right now.
It's pretty interesting. I fully expect Texas to announce that they're pulling out of the ND series and replacing it with a Stanford or NC State series any day now. What happens when others follow suit? That seems like it would force ND to get real about a future with a conference.
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19 minutes ago, UnhappilyMarried said:Problem with the Lacy-Michigan idea is if he looks good, Auburn comes in and money whips him. If Sark hasn’t changed his spring game philosophy, the bowl is effectively the same thing
HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!
Also, "Lacy" is like Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss RB. "Lacey" would be KJ Lacey, tiny backup QB powerhouse at Texas. There's a shot everyone needs to bone up on the proper spelling for these two.
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47 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:
Deboer may not live that one down. He seems like a great kid with a big future, Mack-Russell battle will be interesting if they can keep both. I like our room the way its laid out, hopefully we can spread them out aok. Id like to see what Lacy can do vs Michigan.
The thing about Lacey that's concerning is how diminutive he is. It's not like they didn't know that in recruiting, but now it's suddenly the "but" part of anything said about the guy. Great arm, knows the game, mobile, good leadership skills, can allegedly read a defense pretty well, but he's Herve Villechaize in stature. Can he sit on a tall TE or OT's shoulders and take snaps?
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16 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:
As I recall, Sayin left pretty soon after Saban retired and he and Deboer only overlapped by a week. Think Saban's departure had more to do with it than Deboer picking the current guy over him. Arch to Texas solidified Sayin to Bama IIRC, otherwise he may have ended up here or UGA.
Deboer straight up told Sayin that he wasn't the kind of QB that performed well in his system. He brought Mack with him and sent Sayin packing. Those were like 2 of his first moves.
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11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:
We never saw the full Baxter. He got injured very early on, then seriously injured. RB’s take two years to come back from serious knee injuries. I would not be surprised if he performs very well next year somewhere else, but Texas just can’t roll the dice again next year on him. It would be a waste of money.
Baxter got hurt early on, not injured. He never figured out the difference, and that's also part of why he's gone.
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48 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:IT posted some more portal/NFL notes this morning:
-Expect Tre Wisner back at this time. Simon and Clark are expected to return but not a 100% lock.
-Most likely Jaime Ffrench will be back. Aaron Butler is likely gone. "We’re interested to see how DeAndre Moore’s agent plays his hand."
-Would be surprised if Will Randle returned
-Expecting Trevor Goosby back at this time
-"Very likely" Hero Kanu will return. Watching Melvin Hills for a potential exit.
-At corner, they are watching Wardell Mack, Kobe Black, Santana Wilson and Caleb Chester
-"We believe it’s increasingly likely Jelani McDonald will return"
- Derek Williams and Johnson-Rubell are the two safeties they are monitoring
Maybe Ffrench and Wisner actually got some decent advice. Or IT is just making shit up as they go. Can never be sure.
I don't expect Clark back, so we'll see on that one. Same for Deandre Moore.
I view Hills and Santana Wilson as locks for the portal, same as with Clark.
JJR will get more in the market than Texas prefers to pay, but they'd keep him if they could. That's the same story with Wisner.
I'll be surprised if Black isn't back.
46 minutes ago, LCHorn said:Re: Baxter, I’m curious whether we see him take his name out of the portal if the market isn’t there.
There are worse options than coming back to Texas and getting 100-150 carries as a rotational back in a “show-me” year, with the potential for more, if he’s healthy. I just don’t see anyone paying him based on his high school ranking in 2026.
I've seen you and others apply this logic of "well, if we're not paying much, having player X on the roster doesn't hurt anything" and that's simply false in various situations, including Baxter's. The guy wants to play. If you're playing him, you're benching someone else. The odds are highly likely at this point that the guy getting benched is better.
It's like having a mediocre employee in a critical position that everyone likes. It's easier to let that person continue to put a low ceiling on his/her area's output because shedding him/her might upset some folks and, well, maybe that person actually gets better. Nope, once you know, you know. Fire that person and go get the best candidate to replace them that you can recruit. And don't wait to have that candidate before making the seat empty, because you just might not ever actually make that seat empty.
Baxter is a year 4 player with a busted knee and a shaken confidence. If he goes to West Virginia or South Florida and has a rebirth on the field, awesome. Texas doesn't have room at the inn for rehab projects in this cycle. Up or out.
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1 hour ago, TXpride said:I knew they were at/near the top. $35M is the number I've seen thrown around, whether true or not. But $30M appears to be the standard next season. Other programs, somehow someway, are finding the money. Will Texas stay ahead of the pack and increase its payroll even more? The 2026 OL/DL class makes me question that. You had to be willing to pay big money for those guys, even before rev share. Are they shifting more focus to the portal?
The number is over $40M, but that also includes corporate. The Texas counter to the lunatic billionaire is that Texas is getting more corporate money than anyone and that is expected to grow. That helps in terms of being able to retain or go after non-corporate NIL guys looking at other big offers.
Texas is going bigger on the portal than ever before, allegedly. To that point, some folks are willing to put their hand on the bible and say the multiple IOL are already locked up from the portal. We’ll see.
Regardless, anyone handwringing over NIL isn’t paying attention. That’s not an issue. That doesn’t mean Texas won’t get outbid by random shit every cycle. They will. So will Oregon or whomever. Sometimes crazy happens and you just have to tip your cap.
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3 hours ago, TXpride said:
For next season apparently. Then $50M. Then $75M...
With no meaningful regulation, the endgame looks like Tech and Oregon running away from the pack.
I'm guessing Texas will attempt to position itself in the upper echelon, assuming the BBs are in the box. But it no longer seems like they're leading the NIL charge. Whether that's because they aren't willing to bend the rules like everyone else, or the cigars are tired of Sark and holding back, or everyone else has just caught up... I don't know.
Rev share enabled a higher level quality and quantity of competition, for everyone, but Texas is in the upper echelon. You do realize that Texas has the highest payroll this cycle in which they went 9-3, correct? Your post seems to indicate no clue on that front.
What no school can prevent is finding itself in a position where some random other school shows up and offers a mid level 4 star some over the top value. Roughly 100 schools can now pull that stunt and it impacts blue bloods across the land.
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34 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:
Hey @closetojumping,
Any changes being discussed with Texas staff that builds the roster??
This seems to be a huge part of the problem since Glasscock left...
I would have to ask a lot of questions to know anything like that and I don’t ask a lot of questions.
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2 minutes ago, DZX158 said:First CJ helped Texas get to the playoffs in year 1. So let’s not act like he wasn’t a key player on the team his freshman year. Where I think you have to be careful when dealing with his situation which is unique in my opinion. He’s a leader on and off the field for the team. He is also popular in Central Florida where there are a lot of talented young football players who look up to him. I would rather he leave as a lifetime longhorn on good terms than a bad breakup. It would go a long way opening doors in an area Sark wants to recruit.
Yeah, none of that means shit in the era of NIL. It would be a very Texas thing to worry about, but it’s a meaningless concern that you’re conjuring.
You’re also assuming things have to end in bad terms when a guy transfers. A lot of times, there isn’t any bad blood. A guy just wanted to get paid more than his current school could offer. That’s it.
Some of you guys just don’t fucking getting it because you don’t want to get it, I guess. Teams don’t win titles these days by overpaying 4th string “culture guys”.
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Just now, DZX158 said:
CJ is not a kid you tell to hit the portal. I think it’s fair to adjust his NIL but you don’t tell a kid like him there’s no spot for him on the team. You find a role and hope in year 2 post injury he is able to stay healthy and be great is his role.
He’s not worth his ask and the bid-ask are chasms apart. You absolutely wish him well and move on given the needs across the roster and the goals for next season. Folks can grumble about loyalty and professional sports and the CFB days of yore and such, but the sentimental programs are getting left in the dust. Ask a Clemson fan if you need further confirmation.
Texas is upper tier in NIL without being able to be stupid like Tech, Oregon, Michigan and a few others. They have plenty of money to utilize but they cannot just sling mid 6 figures out to beaten up backs who look like they have had their lick.
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7 hours ago, TankedBevo said:I get what you’re saying, and 100% agree, but this is such a supremely dickheaded way of commenting about a Longhorn that has given his body and apparently career to play here.
My heart goes out to you, man. Eventually, you’ll realize that these guys are all now getting paid, demanding to be treated as adults, demanding more for less on more than an annual basis.
Glad Baxter came here, but he’s been paid handsomely and when he leaves, it’s because his latest monetary ask wasn’t met. Then when you look at what came out of the capital for him, from people never getting anything back, the overall contribution was net neutral at best.
Are you a big Lance McCullers guy as well?
I can’t wait to read your “he was such a good kid, good luck young man!” posts about Moore Jr and Muhammad also.
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Mehringer as the OC at Rutgers for Chris Ash was one of the biggest debacles of the last 20 years. I swear I think it was the worst offense statistically in the country in whatever year that took place.
I know we discussed it back in the day, but if you have never looked at the first staff Ash hired as HC at Rutgers, it’s worth a review. I contend it’s one of the worst power conference staffs ever assembled.
Transfer Cycle 2025-2026 - Stop Being Poor
in 🤫$9.95🤫
Kyle Flood and Steven & 5 thought that this guy was going to do well as a starter at LG. Nothing kills my hope for the future under this regime more than when I try to fathom how in the fuck those two idiots came to that conclusion.