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closetojumping

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by closetojumping

  1. 10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    I won’t say it will “never” happen because on a long enough timeline it will, but: the teams ranked from 10-12 (really more like 8-12, but I’ll be generous) are really unlikely to win a title. They may upset a team or two that could, but they won’t make a four game slog. 
     

    Go back and look at past AP or Coaches polls and find a team with that ranking that really belonged on the field with the winner. 10-12 is talented teams with visible flaws. 

    Past is no longer prologue in college sports, and that shouldn't have to be explained. Your argument is dated and wrong. Ohio State was seeded 8th last year, dude. 

  2. 47 minutes ago, bolverk said:

    ESPN gives these odds for the next three games, and if all plays out accordingly, Texas would miss the championship game but still have a better than even shot at getting in with a 9-3 record.

    If Texas beats Georgia but loses to A&M, the odds of making the playoffs doesn't change materially, regardless of whether the Longhorns don't make (or even if they do lose) the championship game. Make the game but lose: 57% chance of getting in. Don't make the game: 59% chance of getting in.

    Gotta go 2-1 in these next two.

    image.png.600999a317686b579cb60fc1e22adfe8.png

    image.png.6c8e3a24b2826ca47a976dab54433d9b.png

    If I gave the impression that I didn't understand where the dialog was coming from, and what the numbers are, I apologize. I was more commenting on what I actually believe about this team, which is that they're going to wind up 8-4 or 7-5 based on what I've seen up to now. You will be able to knock me over with a feather if Texas beats UGA. They should beat Arkansas and I think ATM is a paper tiger, but this team and this staff's performance this year gives me a lot of pause. 

    5 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

    I'm in a similar spot with the team. I do think Hutson at LG and Robertson at C is the best OL starting 5 we've had all year and that is a significant improvement, even if the OL still isn't great. I want to believe Sark has finally figured out what Arch and this offense can execute well, which is more of a true spread offense with quick screens, spreading the defense out, and giving Arch easy reads, but the fact Sark said in his presser that the offense we ran against Vandy wasn't really the game plan and he just kept calling it because it worked seems like quite the red flag. 

     

    I think this UGA game will come down to whether Sark actually understands what this offense needs to run. UGA's pass rush is worse than it's ever been since Kirby Smart took over. They get very little pressure with their front four and have to blitz LBs to create pressure, which leaves them vulnerable to QB scrambling and quick hitting WR screens and slants.  That is basically the offense Sark should be running, so if he can pull his head out of his ass, I think we have a very good chance to win. If he wastes the first quarter or two trying to revert back to what he wants this offense to be able to run, then we probably have no shot. Gunner Stockton is a very good college QB.  I expect our defense can slow him down, but they will be able to put up points and move the ball against every defense in the country. We need our offense to score at least high 20s to have a chance at winning. 

    Look at you, even you are optimistic to some degree. I'm starting to feel like I need to post a reverse jinx thread of some sort.

    My problem with the UGA front 4 performance is that they weren't putting up great numbers ahead of the game last year and then they lit Texas up. I hope the front 4 really is as weak as they've looked. Obviously the LBs are just about as good as anyone's, and that's the strength of their D. I wonder how much they're going to be used in blitz packages. I assume a lot.

    This game might close the book for me on Sarkisian. If he trots out another shitty gameplan when there are obvious routes otherwise for fielding a competitive outcome, I'm just going to assume that's what he's going to do every time Texas plays anyone formidable on defense, and begin cheering him on to his exit for one of the NFL roles he's rumored to be pursuing. 

  3. Boy, the playoff scenario discussions coupled with the SEC CG scenario discussions are just running rampant on this board. It's somewhat fascinating to see. I hope the optimism is warranted. 

    I guess I'm stuck in neutral with this team. I can't figure out if I think they've turned a corner or not. The first 7.75 games are lodged front in center in my brain for me when I think about this team. I'm still expecting a blowout at the hands of Georgia this weekend. Just thinking about being 0-5 against UGA and OSU over the last 13 months makes me want to vomit. 

    Anywho ... certainly wanting you guys to be right that we're back, baby. 

  4. Boston College for sure. 

    Give me more to the north and the east. Pitt for sure. I wouldn’t mind Rutgers, although others bitch about that past trip. Syracuse? 

    Of course, UW. 

    No thanks regarding Autzen. Those tickets would be complete ridiculous. 

    Stanford sure, Cal no. 

    Wisconsin would be awesome. I actually think many of the Big 10 midwest options would get me interested outside of Michigan State. 

    Tulane, Colorado schools, Utah, sure. 

    Miami would be kind of wild, I think. 

    I would love for Texas to pick up a Dublin game against anyone but Notre Dame.  Dublin is one of the best cities I’ve visited over the years and everyone would love it. Playing ND there? It’s a fucking home game for Notre Dame. It would be population of Ireland against the state of Texas to those drunk lunatics. 

     

  5. BTW, all of this talk about schedule strength and who deserves to be in and blah blah blah, for those frustrated with Notre Dame basically playing a 2 game schedule, losing both, and still all but certain to be in barring Pitt or Navy saving the day, do not go look at ND's schedule for 2026. Only 10 games scheduled so far, but the other 2 additions will just MAC or Sun Belt teams. They basically play no one and will absolutely cakewalk to the playoffs next year. It's pathetic. 

  6. 17 minutes ago, Cruz in Aledo said:

    That really isn’t much of an argument anymore. Talking heads like Klatt and Herbstreit don’t even flinch or pause when they answered absolutely not, FSU should not have gotten in over the teams that did. I don’t even remember FSU fans being up in arms about it. 

    The FSU fanbase and their journalists/board mods have all labeled 2023 "The Snub". They think their program still hasn't recovered from it. It was a massive deal for them and remains as such to this day. 

  7. 1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    FSU shouldve been in that game. They didnt get put in there because everyone knew they would be non-competitive and a rating albatross. But a player getting injured shouldnt erase an undefeated season and a hard earned spot. That's kind of bullshit. 

    In a thread of bad takes, including many from you, this is probably the worst. 

    No one in the last quarter century of CFB has been given more breaks than Florida State when it comes to getting dealt-in to the final game or playoff. 

    2000 - Despite losing to Miami, who had the same record and had suffered a loss to a good UW team in Seattle earlier in the season, FSU gets into the BCS. What did they do? Shit themselves and scored 2 points in a dud of a title game that gave OU it's 7th national title.

    2014 - FSU skated by with like 9 one-score wins in a hapless ACC to go 13-0 ahead of the playoffs. Everyone was begging a team to beat these clowns and no one in the ACC could figure it out. Rather than sacking up and letting the 4 best teams make the playoffs (Ohio State, TCU, Oregon, and Alabama), they fucked TCU over and let FSU make the semis. They rewarded everyone by taking a heaving shit on live TV while Oregon ran on a train on them. 

    So, yeah, they did not deserve the benefit of the doubt in 2023 after losing their QB and playing in the shitty ACC. They played 2 ranked teams all season and then faced another overranked mess in the ACC title game in Louisville, in one of the most unwatchable games of the last decade. That FSU team had a 0% of beating Texas, UW, Michigan, or Bama. 0%. 

  8. 4 hours ago, Tex Pete said:

    I would throw a player off my team for that. That stupid bullshit is the most selfish act in football. Fucking clown show. 

     

    3 hours ago, immamac said:

    He did in fact get thrown off the team. 

    "Trade him for a six-pack. It doesn’t even have to be cold." - Buddy Ryan after one of his players did something to royally piss him off. 

    Yeah, once Mitchell had the two bone-headed plays in the same game, he never really saw much of the field again. I was surprised he got action this past weekend, but I assume that was just the Colts trying to show the league that he was healthy before the trade deadline. 

  9. On 11/3/2025 at 2:03 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

    I am not at all following the logic that the bottom six of the Big XII is better than the bottom six of the SEC. 
     

    Auburn beat the dog out of Baylor, which is not at the bottom of the Big XII.  Their defense hasn’t given up more than 24 all year and is legit good (most Auburn stat season ever). MSU beat ASU, which is a mid to good Big XII team. Florida and UK can be plenty dangerous. Arkie has played ranked teams close all year. 
     

    Now with fired coaches and turmoil all bets are off. But the bottom of the Big XII wining games against the middle of the Big XII does nothing for me. The top through middle of the SEC is really fucking good. I’ll buy AZ and Iowa State as decent teams but UCF on down is not good at all. 

    I got busy and haven't really been able to respond to this thread. 

    I wrote this thread with the notion of "what do we think now that we've seen everyone play?" pretty much in the title. Wins at the beginning of the season matter, but they don't matter more than the scope of the season. Fired coaches play a role, injuries play a role, the book getting out on a player matters, etc.

    Baylor isn't even in the bottom 6, so I don't even understand mentioning them. Jackson Arnold played the best game of his career in that game and Baylor looked totally unprepared. Baylor has won a game they shouldn't have (SMU) and lost one they shouldn't have (Auburn).

    Tell me that Kentucky slapped around a decent MAC team in Toledo and the argument is more compelling. 

    That said, I don't agree that the bottom of the SEC is any better. My view is that Arizona and Iowa State would be teams 1 and 2 if we ranked the bottom 12 between the two conferences.

    I'd likely go:

    1) Arizona - These guys could legitimately finish 9-3. It's kind of dumb that we're talking about them as a bad team.

    2) Iowa State - They have the best win of any of the 12 bottom feeders besides the inexplicable UF win over Texas. I don't know why they've collapsed into a 4 game losing streak, even though I watched some of these games. The CU loss is absurd. They could lose to TCU and still wind up 7-5. 

    3) MSU - If these idiots have figured out how to win, they could snipe any of the 3 remaining opponents and throw a wrench into the CFP, but I'd need to see another win besides Arkansas in order to believe that they've figured something out.

    4) Florida - I think this is the dumbest team in the country. They could beat any team remaining on their schedule, but they'll likely do stupid shit to force a loss rather than take a win. 

    5) UCF - I only watched them play UNC, so maybe I'm biased here. I've seen almost every Auburn game and I simply hate that boringass team. 

    6) Auburn - we can talk about their defense but their offense looks bottom 20th of the 137 FBS teams. I haven't checked advanced stats to validate, but in watching 40+ games every weekend, at least multiple quarters worth of each, I can't think more than a few I would argue are worse than Auburn's offense. They should be playing Deuce Knight yesterday and I am assuming he must have told them to fuck off and that he's redshirting and transferring. 

    7) who the fuck cares, the bottom 6 are all dogshit with Okie State being the only team that any good team could take for granted. Arkansas could fully well beat Texas, but it would be an outlandish and historical upset. WVU just worked UH. SCar has been a competitive loser. UK has thrown in the towel. CU has enough talent to finish 6-6 if their freshman QB can help. 

    On 11/3/2025 at 2:54 PM, Nicole44 said:

    @closetojumping are there some teams (as the season has progressed) that you feel are worthy of being in the playoffs but will likely be overlooked/left out by the committee? We still have all of November left to play…

    I am answering this after the CFP rankings came out, but I was going to mention Iowa first and foremost. We're obviously about to learn more about them, but I like their team and have enjoyed watching them play a few times. Maybe they don't get it done at home against Oregon, I don't know since, as I first wrote, I am not sure of who Oregon really is yet, but I could also see Iowa beating Oregon comfortably and shooting up the CFP rankings. 

    If TCU finishes by winning out, they will be a team that comes out of nowhere. They're 6-2 with a loss against a healthy ASU. They close out against 4 teams with a combined record of 27-8, so they would have earned the consideration. 

    The only other one that literally no one in the media seems to mention is James Madison. They're 7-1 with a tough road loss to 7-1 Louisville. I think they'll finish 12-1 while the AAC teams cannibalize each other. I could easily see them being the G6 team in the CFP and not a team that anyone wants to play. 

  10. 5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    DeJean isn’t the Eagles return man this year, right? I think of him as a legit really good CB and Wetjen/Dwight as pure return specialists. 

    Wetjen is also a good WR. You draw weird differentiations in order to manage where you think goalposts should lie. Dwight, Wetjen and Dejean were/all excellent college punt returners who happened to be white. Worrying about the pro performance is irrelevant. You made a good point by bringing up Dwight, and someone else mentioning Dejean was also a good point. 

  11. 4 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    a decent run by the Shorts team today.

     

    I especially loved Hope giving Aggy the "you're next" eyes.

     

    only thing they could have done better is call in the ref during our game and tell them they need more vandypimp swaggar

     

     

    You guys liked it? I thought it was the worst one in years. The aggie part was the only thing that was remotely funny to me. 

  12. On 9/22/2024 at 1:35 PM, closetojumping said:

    I’ve always thought Freeze was a good coach. I’m now wondering how far off base that view might really be when reviewing his work. 

    At Ole Miss, they were aggying the bag game before the aggies showed up and did it too. They were paying double what anyone else would and amassed serious talent. Then it all fell apart. 

    At Liberty, they basically play an FCS schedule. Anyone can win there with that bullshit. 

    Now at Auburn, you can’t outspend everyone all of the time and the schedule is tough. So what happens? They’re a mediocre program with a piece of shit for a HC that the lunatic fanbase is beginning to discover it doesn’t like very much. 

    As much as I would like to see Auburn beat OU and ATM, I can get behind just watching Hugh Freeze burn that thing down to the studs. 

    I keep seeing this thread with a star by it.

    “What in the hell did I say on that thread? Did I project this shitbag as being a successful hire at Auburn?”

    Whew. 

  13. 2 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

    I'm going to laugh when the polls come out today and we are still behind both OU and Vandy.

    It wouldn’t surprise me. The media has been really down on Texas due to the weirdness of the schedule and the team’s behavioral profile. 

    1 hour ago, The Dog said:

    Rank Iowa you cowards.

    Texas is SEC Iowa this year is the analog many talking heads have used to either justify the premise that Texas is overranked or that Iowa should be ranked. I do think Iowa is a lot better than recent vintages, but that’s because I’ve actually gotten to watch them. They play their standard great defense and special teams, but the offense is developing into being fully competent. They didn’t look like that at the beginning of the season. The Wetjen dude is really fun to watch, also. 

  14. 1 minute ago, Underdog said:

    MSU snaps 15 SEC game losing streak with win over Arkansas today. Golly, I wonder who holds that distinction of current longest SEC losing streak now? 

    I think it was 16 games due to the UT win, no?

  15. 18 minutes ago, Jerry Callo said:

    Dixieland Delight is just Afternoon Delight with a guy wearing a KKK hood.

    HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!

    Also, I've stood in the second level crowd of Bryant Denny Stadium when they sing Dixieland Delight after the 3rd quarter, which I don't think they do anymore. It was quite a thing to behold. Bucket list kind of thing for a sports fan to experience. 

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