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StassneyHorn

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Posts posted by StassneyHorn

  1. Pretty sure I caught the guy scamming. Sent two different emails with two different account numbers, routing, and Banks, but same individual listed as an accountant and deposit due today. Sucks cause it's the perfect shack with the outdoor patio and location.

    Whatever, my Altima has a very comfortable second row.

  2. 1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

    I want other countries to bear the brunt, but that doesn't mean I am not pro-Ukraine. I get that Cloak Room only sees binary shades of black and white (which is ironic given the sheer number of non-binary posters who dominate the Cloak Room), but one can want to offset USA's responsibilities to EU/NATO countries and still be anti-Russia. 

    image.gif.32788226b9d3fdb30aa0d784efd32f33.gif

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  3. 4 hours ago, BeardIP said:

    Modi/BJP to start elections soon. Gamblers are predicting a landslide, for a 3rd term, which is almost unprecedented, but he's that popular. His opponents are concerned he will veer into dictatorship if he is elected by the landslide.

    Saw a stat over 49 MILLION new voters since the last election (turning of age) in India. The whole election process takes like 6 weeks and costs $8 Billion dollars, there are so many people and places.

    Crazy.

    Oh, and India is still funding Russia and not even hiding it in the West's face, which is indirectly killing Ukranians and costing the West a ton of money in aid and support. Doesn't seem like there are plans to stop either.

    In another thread you said you wanted to end support and telegraph it, right?  Did I read it wrong

  4. ‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher

    Economists lift their growth forecasts in latest Wall Street Journal survey

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b

    Spoiler
    It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook.
    In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.
    Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter. 
    Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.
    Probability the U.S. is in a recession in next 12 months including today
    The Wall Street Journal survey was conducted from April 5 to 9, just before the release of March consumer-price index data showing inflation running hotter than economists had anticipated.
    The U.S. economy has far outperformed expectations over the past year and a half. Instead of stumbling under the weight of the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest-rate-raising campaign in four decades, it has continued expanding at a robust clip. 
    Few think that the economy can do quite as well as last year’s 3.1% growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted fourth-quarter change from a year earlier. That figure might have been boosted by one-time factors such as federal infrastructure and semiconductor legislation and an uptick in immigration, which also might not last.
     
    Still, economists have had to rethink forecasts for a major slowdown as more time has passed and one still doesn’t seem imminent. Economists on average think the economy grew at a 2.2% rate in the first three months of the year, up from a 0.9% forecast in January.
    “The U.S. economy is performing very well,” EconForecaster economist James Smith said in the survey. “We’re truly the envy of the world.”
    Much has changed since economists were last this optimistic. Two years ago, the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate was set between 0.25% and 0.5%. Inflation was high but economists still generally thought that it could come down without too much help from the Fed. They forecast steady growth and the midpoint of the range for the fed-funds rate topping out at just above 2.5%. 
    Now, the fed-funds rate is sitting between 5.25% and 5.5%, and economists don’t see a bunch of cuts coming soon. Many analysts trimmed their rate-cut forecasts after last week’s hot inflation report. But even before the report, survey respondents predicted that rates would end the year at 4.67%, implying three cuts. In January, their responses suggested that they thought four or five cuts were likely. 
    Economists now think the economy can withstand higher rates than they did not long ago.
     
    They expect the 10-year Treasury yield—a key borrowing benchmark that was around 4.4% at the time of the survey—to end 2024 at 3.97%. Looking further into the future, they expect the yield to end 2026 at 3.78%. That is slightly above even their forecast last October, when the yield was higher than it is now.
    Many economists have long thought that the economy can handle higher interest rates when it is capable of growing faster, and particularly when worker productivity has increased.
    To that end, economists expect the Labor Department’s measure of productivity to rise at an annual rate of 1.9% over the next decade. That matches the annual increase in productivity over the last 40 years. But it is above the 1.2% pace of the 2010s, when the 10-year Treasury yield was typically stuck between 1.5% and 2.5%.
    Some economists are now enthusiastic about the economy’s longer-term potential.
    “We think that the American economy has entered a virtuous cycle where strong productivity results in growth above the long-term trend, inflation between 2% and 2.5% and an unemployment rate between 3.5% and 4%,” RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas said in the survey.
    Many aren’t quite as optimistic. One downside of a better growth outlook is that a stronger economy could make it harder for inflation to fall all the way back to the Fed’s 2% target. 
     
    An inflation gauge that is closely watched by the Fed, the core personal-consumption expenditures price index, was 2.8% in February, its most recent reading. Economists now expect it to end the year at 2.5%, after having forecast 2.3% in January.
    Economists, on average, believe that core PCE inflation will fall to 2.1% by the end of next year without a recession. However, their projections might already have ticked higher after last week’s price data, and some continue to worry that the Fed’s efforts to control inflation still present a major threat to the economy.
    “The risks are clearly skewed toward more hawkish Fed outcomes, which could drag on our growth forecasts,”   economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti said in the survey.

     

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  5. My President, the big guy, is ALL-IN on buying votes. 277,000 additional Americans are literally getting a raise, a pay bump, a bonus, but most of all a sigh of relief. He can't be stopped. 9.5% of federal student loan debt wiped.

    Biden cancels $7.4 billion in student debt for 277,000 borrowers
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-forgives-74-bln-student-debt-2024-04-12/

    The latest round of debt relief affects 277,000 Americans enrolled in the SAVE Plan, other borrowers enrolled in Income-Driven Repayment plans, and borrowers receiving Public Service Loan Forgiveness, the White House said in a statement.

    It follows an announcement in March that $6 billion in student loans would be canceled for 78,000 borrowers.

    The administration said on Friday it has approved $153 billion in student debt relief for 4.3 million Americans.

    206,000 borrowers erase their debt through the new Saving on a Valuable Education plan, which ties monthly student loan payments to earnings and family size. Over 65,000 borrowers will see relief through a fix to income-driven repayment plans and more than 4,600 public servants, such as teachers and nurses, will also see their loans wiped.

    image.thumb.png.601a27154ad30567292f0bbc878a3a4d.png

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  6. 1 hour ago, GenXer said:

    I live in dallas and need a new vial every month. That kind of travel just isn’t sustainable.

    There’s lots of variations of insulin. Some long lasting (24 hrs); some short acting (a couple hours). Some have been around for decades; others a handful of years. When the dems said “we lowered insulin costs”, it’s not that simple. Maybe for one type of insulin for old people only. There’s work to be done but I’m not hearing about it much these days.

    The shit I’m prescribed is expensive. I just want to be able to shop around. Everywhere.

    Posting this here in case you see the kind you need. The Medicare requirement seems to have gone away and commercial insurance is being covered more than not

    https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2024-01-02/more-americans-will-only-have-to-pay-35-a-month-for-insulin-in-2024#:~:text=And in March%2C Eli Lilly,medication for %2435 a month.

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  7. The narrowing gap in presidential numbers from 2000-2020 is hilarious in Texas. If not for lockdowns in 2020, Texas had the momentum to take the whole fucking thing. Trump has shown in two cycles he gets more people out AGAINST him in our state

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  8. 3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

    Why do you think they're so hysterical about birth rates and immigration? You know who else tried to manage "undesirable" populations and how they tried to do it? You really think they aren't going to try?? Look around you. They're already working on this.

    Seriously do you and the others miss when I post the articles on the massive tsunami of white people not fucking compared to everyone else? From 2018? That shit is already 6 years old.

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  9. 3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

    Why do you think they're so hysterical about birth rates and immigration? You know who else tried to manage "undesirable" populations and how they tried to do it? You really think they aren't going to try?? Look around you. They're already working on this.

    I’m not, I fucking know theyre toast. I get met with so much incredibly stupid bullshit about Texas numbers constantly cause it’s a bunch of Gen X queermos who married the first leg they could sling.

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  10. Jesus Christ guys when Trump loses a third popular vote and second election so does his bullshit. These people are largely fucking losers, will shut up and go away mostly, then pretend they were never “really” into him. The numbers aren’t there for long standing success.

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  11. 2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

    If we can make Americans only compare this year vs last year and memory hole the prior three, then yes, inflation is not bad at all. 
     

    It is a significant reduction of standard of living for the non-investor class. 
     

     

    It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/its-been-30-years-since-food-ate-up-this-much-of-your-income-2e3dd3ed?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

    Point at this fat guy who eats fast food every meal

  12. On 4/8/2024 at 8:39 AM, TexasEd said:

    Why are the Colorado presidential primary (March 5) and the general primary (June 25) separated by almost 4 months?  Is it for the Schadenfreude? 

    A good number of legislatures have requirements to starts first Monday of January and extend so many days while in session.

  13. 6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    A counterpoint to this is that all the people who bitch and moan about how they went to school and worked a job, back when school was affordable, could now just nod there heads that it's possible kids might be able to put themselves through school with a part time job. 

    Nah, fuck 'dem kids!

    That definitely gives them a rebuttal to Jesse’s astonishment. “I’d like to work part time and put myself through community college like past generations” is an agreeable statement without being disagreeable.

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  14. A 16 year old putting away 20/hr part time during school year and then full time in the summers will have a nice chunk of change in their pocket that I would hope discourages them from wasting it on higher education. 

  15. So the 3rd place finisher in the Anchorage Mayoral election, Bill Popp has thrown his support to the leader, Assembly Chair Suzanne LaFrance. “Nonpartisan” race but not. Having large city blue mayors in Alaska helps speed up Alaska’s transition.

    Also, this is happening… in Alabama. Continued resurgence of blue collar unions. I don’t care if it’s actually true or not I’m just gonna say it.

    And the Pokémon cards are making room next to the Beanie Babies for things Boomers killed. Trump has said he won’t support a national ban on abortion today. Would be funny if this triggered a jump in RFK support that I will speak into existence.

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  16. 5 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

    I’d love for you to link last guesses. Please. 

    EIA has admitted this, so yeah, they’ve already told us. 

    Im not sure Biden is getting 4 more years but my point is, I doubt he has opportunities sub $95. I actually hope Biden does get 4 more years. 

    Yes, yes, and okay. 

    Your performance as Porterhouse has already been linked as Guest quotes. 

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