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John Lawrence

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Posts posted by John Lawrence

  1. I'm still just not seeing a big explosion in cases in the numbers. And deaths continue to decline. There's always going to be the chance to cherry-pick a spot here or there that hits some spike; that's just how things will work with how large and varied the nation is.

    If there actually were some big spike going on right now (which I don't believe), this would be the worst time, because ain't nobody going back to anything remotely resembling a shutdown.

    • Like 3
    • Fuck You 1
  2. 11 hours ago, DaggerHorns said:

    Yeah, you can clearly see how he accumulated all that wealth. He doesn’t do it for the money, he lives very humbly. He gives ALL that money back to the patrons.

    You knocked the hell out of that strawman.

    • Fuck You 1
  3. Hackberry is running a screaming good deal right now if you like Calcasieu.  3 people for $870.  Runs to July.  Meals, lodging, drinks, artificial bait and 8 hour guided fishing trip.

    Was there a couple weeks ago and pounded them.  Flounder, trout, and reds.  None of my buddies wanted theirs, so I came back to the house to vacuum seal and deep freeze.  31 bags of fish.  Been eating it twice a week.

    Going back next weekend.

    • Like 4
  4. 55 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

    Yeah, maybe it's premature to suggest the demise of office, but I have to believe that a lot of businesses are going to realize that they can function perfectly fine without all that office space and come renewal time will downsize.  It will be a gradual process, but I have to believe it's coming.

    I would add mixed use multifamily to the list of projects to avoid, though.  In the best of times, the retail and office are a drag on cash flow.  These days, they could potentially blow otherwise good projects up.

    Lawyers and accounting firms could/should probably operate with smaller offices that are not dedicated to a person.  Or cubicle.  And have more conference/war room space.  More people work from home, at client offices and on the road.  So just have docking stations where you plug in laptop whatever officer or cube that is open when you are in the office.

  5. 1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

    Retail yes, stay away.  The demise of office is premature.  There may certainly be some transition to a work-from-home model, but that doesn't work long term for a lot of businesses (we have a ton of entertainment tenants, and they just can't work that way).  Plus, we are already seeing to impacts to occupancy- a planned decrease in density (moving from 4-6 per 1,000 sf leased to 2-3), and a flight away from the open office/ collaboration model that has become so popular back to more private offices, which naturally decreases density.  So companies may be taking more space for the same number of employees.  Stay tuned.

    Retail is going to be a nightmare.  We have some, but not much.  What we have is getting pounded.  Fortunately it is not heavily leveraged. 

    spacer.png

    • Haha 1
  6. 16 minutes ago, Cajun said:

    Don't even get me started on the special/different treatment women get vs men by LEOs.  Even when they've got the female criminal dead to rights, they pull off.  Cops, DAs, justice system, all of it is slanted toward taking it easy on women.

    I've seen it right up close.

    You wanna talk about how great our legal/justice system is?  Get in a nice, long, drawn out custody battle with a clinically diagnosed female sociopath and then get back to me.  It's like playing golf against someone getting 3 Mulligans per hole.  If I had done 1/10th the things she did I would be in prison, no questions asked.  I've had LEOs and attorneys tell me that.  Ugh!  Do what she did and it's, "Well, we don't want to get involved.  This is more of a civil matter...".  Man does the exact same thing and it's, "Get me some choppers, SWAT, and an MRAP on the DOUBLE!!!".

    Sorry, rant on that over.  Touched a nerve JL.

    I saw a study once that equalizing for crime and prior criminal history, blacks get about 10% more time than whites.  And men get about 60% more time than women.

    Here it is:

    https://www.law.umich.edu/newsandinfo/features/Pages/starr_gender_disparities.aspx

     

    If you're a criminal defendant, it may help—a lot—to be a woman. At least, that's what Prof. Sonja Starr's research on federal criminal cases suggests. Prof. Starr's recent paper, "Estimating Gender Disparities in Federal Criminal Cases," looks closely at a large dataset of federal cases, and reveals some significant findings. After controlling for the arrest offense, criminal history, and other prior characteristics, "men receive 63% longer sentences on average than women do," and "[w]omen are…twice as likely to avoid incarceration if convicted." This gender gap is about six times as large as the racial disparity that Prof. Starr found in another recent paper.

  7. 2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    Spot-on.  Cops will abuse anyone, lie on their reports about anyone, etc.  Not every cop 100% of the time, but they will at some point or another.  And then it gets to odds.  Your odds of having that shit happen to you as a generic white guy are higher than they should be.  If you're a generic black guy....quintuple those odds.

    There also a lot higher if you are a male.  And a lot higher than if you are younger.  Males make up 95+% of all police shootings.  Most of them are going be younger.

     

  8. Now nearly all those I loved and did not understand in my youth are dead. Even Jessie. But I still reach out to them. Of course, now I'm too old to be much of a fisherman. And now I usually fish the big waters alone... although some friends think I shouldn't. But when I am alone in the half-light of the canyon... all existence seems to fade to a being with my soul and memories... and the sounds of the Big Blackfoot River and a four-count rhythm... and the hope that a fish will rise. Eventually, all things merge into one... and a river runs through it. The river was cut by the world's great flood... and runs over rocks from the basement of time. On some of the rocks are timeless raindrops. Under the rocks are the words... and some of the words are theirs. I am haunted by waters.

    • Like 4
  9. 20 minutes ago, ztejas said:

    Yes. Because I think all of those players are better than Kidd. But we can agree to disagree. 

    I mean this is really why I can't put Chris Paul first on my list. The door was wide fucking open in 2015 after they beat the Spurs and they pissed it away. I would put that 2015 Warriors team below Miami and SA in 2013, the Spurs in 2014, OKC and Cavs in 2016, Houston in 2018*, Toronto in 2019 and the Warriors squads in 2017-2019. They just weren't built for the playoffs yet. 

    And then he did it again in 2018 - the Rockets should have won that series and they would have taken a steaming shit on that pathetic Cavs team. Durant was just dicking around with them by game 4 - they would have had nobody to check Paul and Harden, or the ability to hang with that bench for 48 mins a night. 

    Paul pulled his hammy in game 5.

  10. Haven't certain countries legalized most drugs and focused on treatment?  And addiction rates have dropped (along with all the other benefits of legalization)?

    Wasn't Portugal one?  It certainly seems more humane.

    We have lost the war on drugs.  And created a massive black market with all the attendant criminal organizations/violence.  Time to wave the white flag.

    • Like 2
  11. Do the walk ons who get left over scholarships as underclassmen get to keep them?  I know they are year to year for everyone.  But do we actually not renew for walk ons?

    Because otherwise unless they are good enough to be on the two deep, I would think you would only want to give those to seniors.

  12. While you communists and fascists litter our streets and social media with your political war, me and mine take a stand today. We're bringing the fucking calvary out and opening up youth baseball. I know not yet the faces of our enemies, but I'll stand at first base hoping the previously smoked joints don't lead to poor baserunning coaching like a got damn patriot. So if you're driving around this afternoon, and you see a bunch of 9 year olds breathing life back into America's pastime...honk your horn, crack open that Bud heavy, and let's get back to being ‘Mericans

  13. 1 minute ago, mdmost said:

    No, people haven't been voting at the city, county, and municipal levels. Those races typically have the worst turnout. Just in my city, Dallas, in 2018 the turnout for local races was 6%. 

    And the primaries are what matter in most urban areas.

    • Like 1
  14. On 5/26/2020 at 8:05 AM, HOOKEM4 said:

    I may have missed this mentioned, spare tires. Make sure you have 2 and a good jack. The drive on jack posted above is great but can be an issue on certain terrains. Also a 4 way wrench that is adequately sized for all to change a tire. On a tandem trailer, when you blow one, odds go up that you hit something and blow 2 tires.

     

    Airstreams ftw. We have an Airstream and a larger POS jayco we keep at the ranch. The jayco is used because it is 2x larger and fits the kids better but the quality is so shitty when compared to the Airstream. I know it is like comparing a pinto to a porsche but it is amazing how shitty these trailers can be. We don't travel with it so really it doesn't matter to me so long as it has a good upgraded bed. 

    Speaking of beds, does the Puma have nice beds stock? I made it two nights before I was ordering a upgraded memory foam mattress.

    I use a 4x4 block on my dual axle travel trailer.  Just drive up on it with the one wheel on that side that isn't flat.  Works well for any dual axle trailer. It will lift the flat off the ground and give plenty of lift to change the tire.

    • Like 1
  15. On 6/4/2020 at 7:10 AM, troph said:

    That’s good to know.  Yes we expect the microwave and hair dryers to be off limits if we are using the AC. I wonder if you could run two of those parallel? I would assume so.

    Coffee makers too.  They pull a lot of power.

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