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swraith

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by swraith

  1. Natural Gas is a stomach-churning market. Its inherent volatility has always been brutal due to the way winter storage works.  The only thing crazier is the inherent volatility in the power markets (which up until very recently had virtually zero storage to accommodate demand shifts) which makes natural gas looks like a blue-chip stock.

     

    Anyways, Henry Hub rallied hard in September.  Now it is falling hard.  The picture below is a daily chart for January delivery Henry Hub.

     

    All that said, I don't think the winter is over by any means.  The first shot of real cold in the 11-15 day forecast (or 3-week forecast) and we could get a very nice bounce in Henry Hub pricing.  But that might be a good exit point for longs because the 90-day forecasts show this winter is going to be a bust for total heating degree day counts.

     

    image.thumb.png.98032b8eb628718d8e16c216c5d238c8.png

  2. It is normal when the weather across the U.S. is this warm.  Heating demand just isn't there.  Henry Hub had large risk premiums priced into this winter's forward curve and when cold weather doesn't show up, prices have to drop precipitously to clear the market.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    Former sienna plantation resident here. 
    not sure how common this is now but the SP bylaws state that if you sell your house there and aren’t buying another inside the neighborhood, there’s a 1% fee to be paid to the HOA at closing. 
     

    First home we rented in Wyoming was a tiny neighborhood of 1 dead end street and like 10 duplexes on it.  Lady who turned out to be a lawyer and the HOA president walked down and told the contractor that I hired to install the satellite dish that he has to stop, before she ever met or talked to me.  A pretty quick google search later says that there’s a federal law saying you can place your dish wherever you get good reception. But I knew I’d have to take that bitch to court after court and cost myself time and money and it wasn’t worth it. I think that’s their greatest weapon- the complete inconvenience of fighting them. 

    Paying a fee to HOA for the privelege of selling your house….is just absurd. So happy to live in a neighborhood with no HOA. 

  4. 7 hours ago, slorch said:

    because of fires?

    Heard this past week that Denver metro temporarily had worst air quality in the WORLD(!)  but it is from the wildfire smoke blowing in.  It was on the radio, and could be total BS.   It did raise an eyebrow, for sure.

    I'm in Denver right now.  Air quality last week was horrible.  Couldn't see the downtown skyline.  Couldn't see the front range mountains.  The air smelled and tasted of smoke.  

  5. PT is recommending acute inpatient rehab.  Multiple facility options here in Denver that are directly connected with hospital.  I have asked the case worker to also contact the Central Texas Rehab Hospital as a referral to see if they will review her file.  The main barrier to Austin is transport.  She is far from ready for commercial transport.  Private medical transport is $$$$$.  I also left message with Stokes office attempting to make contact.

    Trying to determine if we should do rehab here with extended stay in Denver vs return to Austin for rehab.  Kids, school starting in August, various support networks in the 2 cities make it complicated to figure out.

  6. @Doc Holliday Thanks for the pointers on TXOrtho and commenting on Stokes.

    @Lobo Thanks for the tip on Dr Stokes.  Sounds like I need to make contact with his office though I'm unclear where he is working.

    @DalTxHornFan Thanks for the tip on Dr Stovall

     

    Surgery is done and a success in surgeon's eyes.  He confirmed I need to find an Austin doctor long term to monitor wife's recovery once we return to Austin.  Her L3 was a severe burst fracture.  Due to other complications and pre-existing conditions her entire spine is now fused.  So that is going to be a bitch.  But she should be able to walk with a great amount of PT.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. I don’t post much but am searching far and wide for help.

     

    My wife was in a hiking accident yesterday and was helicoptered to a Denver hospital. She is getting spinal fusion surgery and a rod extension for broken/fractured lower vertebrae. I don’t have the actual diagnosis yet as she went from ER to surgery in a little over 12 hours. I have zero concrete idea what recovery and PT will be like but my understanding is that it will be really rough.

     

     

    At some point my wife will be stable and recovered enough to return to Austin. How she will get to Austin…I have no idea yet.

     

    I am assuming she is going to need a specialist doctor once she returns to Austin. I don’t know if she will need an orthopedic or neuro doc. Her surgeon today is a neurosurgeon doing the spinal fusion.

     

    So anybody have recommendations on the best spine doctors in Austin for follow up on two spinal fusion surgeries along with spinal rods attached to the spine? Also looking for PT recommendations with a spine focus.

     

    Appreciate any leads to help us move along once we get back to Austin whenever that is.

  8. If you are behind, doesn’t the sale price just need to be sufficient to meet the payoff…including whatever they are behind on? If the sales price is below the amount needed, that would be a blocker as they likely would not have cash.

    The mortgage holder would seem to prefer the home sold and loan paid off vs the expenses of foreclosure.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

    And how long can he keep an emergency session going without pissing off a lot of Republican legislators?

    And Allan West is already taking potshots at Abbott for letting this happen, and claiming he wouldn't allow them to get away with it.

     

    Won't Republican legislators just leave town until the Democrats return or time runs out on the special session? Why would they need to stay in Austin?

  10. anyone care to forecast how this plays out?

     

    Texas R's will just make news headlines. 

    Texas D's staying in D.C. until end of this special session.  Do the Texas D's have the fortitude for such an undertaking? Then does Abbot just call another special session and we start all over?

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