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Had Enough

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Posts posted by Had Enough

  1. There’s some odd stuff in the RPI.   I don’t think top-40 ish TCU is in over us or are they?

    Auburn and their 2-16 conference record is in the 40s.

    Notre Dame is 5-16 in conference is top 40.

    UCF and their bottom half of the Big 12 record is top 30 because of their non-conference east coast schedule.

    OU is 10-10 in non conference.  Got swept by Lamar.  The Lamar that just lost 2 of 3 to TAMUCC.

    Rutgers at 3-9 in conference is 12 spots ahead of us.

    Quite a few relatively high RPI teams with mediocre to bad conference records.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 57 minutes ago, Iguana said:

    I am fairly certain that 13 held Baxter out of the end zone. ( The play where both ended up 4 yards from the pile up at the goal line.)

     

    The play where Collins got the interception was caused by Collins.  He blew up Campbell which caused Helm to block Campbell also.  This left Burke free to bat the pass into the air.

     

    The TD pass to Blue was a wheel route out of the backfield then changed to a post route.   They ran what appeared to be the same play later and Blue stopped and caught a curl route.  Option route?

     

    Yes, that was Mukuba tackling Baxter on the goalline.

     

    i will be interested to see if we run some version of that play that Blue scored on the pass.  That’s a tough ask for the LB and difficult read for the S cause you don’t see it often. And of course Blue is an open field mismatch.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. Watching both of those catches the MItchell catch required more adjustment to the ball in air....worth just had to run straight and dive....
     
    You can over analyze all you want with dumb shit yardage ran but at the point of catch Mitchell's was more difficult. 

    Here’s a bit of background on my philosophy.

    Had a former Big 12 skill guy work with some kids. He works with others maybe even some 4/5 star skill kids but didn’t ask specifically.

    He can throw the ball. So he threw it probably 65 yards. Kids couldn’t catch shit. 40 yards easier. He said others he worked with weren’t any good either. Can’t track it at 65 but much easier at 40.

    The more they run, the more the ball travels the more fatigue sets in and eye discipline fades. I’m also guessing none of these other kids have throwers that can replicate it. And it’s really not something an offense relies on. So the reps aren’t there.

    I’d say the same here. The Worthy catch has some similarities. Not just can anyone can make that throw. But they don’t rep it out that manner in practice. A bit like that other reference I made to the throw that traveled about 80 yards but went out of bounds. You’d be hard pressed to find 10 guys to throw it that far. It’s hard to replicate reps for that. And not an efficient use of time anyway.

    But I’ll bow out of commenting further on this one. You can have the board.
  4. The completion % on deep plays was 36% and 23% for Card vs 34% and 30% for Ewers, I am not sure how you look at those numbers and think Card was better on deep balls. You are hanging your hat on 6% difference in 1 year, which is likely 1 or 2 completions. Its basically the difference between Worthy making 1 of the 2 drops vs Washington in the bowl game or Worthy not making the TD catch vs WV that went off the hands of a defender. I think you are reading a little too much into these numbers. 


    I never said Card was better at deep balls. There were never complaints about Worthy’s tracking abilities on Cards throws. That’s what I was inferring.

    There were only complaints about Worthy tracking in 1 of 3 years. And in that year, only complaints when 1 of the 2 QBs was playing.

    Just odd that Worthy sucked at that component of his game for an isolated period of time.
  5. We saw about a half dozen better examples just last year from his teammate Mitchell 
     

    Bullshit. since BO&W threw out Mitchell in Bama, let’s compare that one.

    Mitchell ran about 40 yards. Straight downfield for the most part without having to navigate any defender for at least 20 yards.

    Worthy ran probably at least 65 yards, up and slightly across field with the expectation to be led away from the defender not back into him.

    The ball traveled similar distances but probably further for Worthy’s throw by a bit.

    In these two alone, Worthy had to adjust his route more, his head/body more, had to deal with the defender more, likely had to maintain his speed more. The longer the route the more difficult to track the ball. 65 yards is not normal made more complicated with each body shift.
  6. I am not sure that is the case on Worthy. I am not sure you have the numbers, but it would be interesting to see deep shot percentage among the Texas WRs. 

    Worthy caught 26% of deep balls in 2023. 21% in 2022. 33% in 2021. Really that’s just a broke hand missed ball or two from 2022. Average depth of target probably mid 30s.

    Mitchell was 36% in 2023.

    JT was 60% in 2022 and 27% in 2023. 21 combined targets at an average depth of target in the mid 20s.

    JW caught 7 of 9 over the two years. Average depth of target mid 20s.

    QE deep completion % was 34% in 2023 and 30% in 2022.

    HC was 36% in 2022 and 23% in 2021.

    CT was 33% in 2021.


    That’s all over the board. But the original question was surrounding the sack rate. QE not only got rid of it quicker in 2022 he threw it 25% deeper. At one time I set some parameters of all QBs for the 2022 season and it was top 5%in getting rid of the ball but also top 5% in deepest average depth of target.

    That 2022 note is the anomaly, which coincides with the season in which Worthy effort and tracking are in question but weren’t on Cards plays. Throwing and catching are timing. If you throw at 5 yards when you’ve worked all season at 10 yards, then you will have more awkward looking plays. And probably some that the receiver either never sees the ball or sees it way too late. There were a number of these with other pass catchers too. Worthy plays hard. It makes no sense for him to not attack at the ball on certain plays. This is an alternate consideration.
  7. We are fucked if LBJ can’t figure it out. You can’t get negative performances every Friday.
    We’ve hosted supers as a regional 2 seed.

    Good thing for you his worst struggles come on Thursdays.
  8. “just throwing it and hoping for the best.”
    This year, the last 3 quarters v. OU and 1st half against Hou, QE completion rate was 90+ %.
    There are numerous throws he made as the receiver was coming out their break, where he anticipated where the receiver would be and delivered a perfect throw in stride.
    Can he improve? Certainly.
    But there was nothing close to Mike “find the ball and go up and get it” Evans on the Texas roster the last 2 years. Fuck that hoping the best bs.
    His anticipating and missing has as much to do with the receivers be off schedule as much as it has to do with the throws.
    Maybe he could wait another 2/10ths of a second before throwing it. Maybe is doesn’t want to chance a 250 lb meat head driving him into the ground because of a weather vane whiff by the OL.
    QE throws as catchable ball as well as anyone QB I’ve ever seen.

    Well first off I was responding to another post that was referencing 2022 not portions of 2023. It was within the context of referencing why QEs sack rate was lower in 2022 than 2023.

    Here’s something else to ponder. Why in the fuck is it that Worthy’s tracking skills were an issue in only 1 of the 3 seasons and 1 of 3 QBs? And that 1 QB it wasn’t even all the time. I’d even wager that you’ll never see a better ball tracking example than Worthy on that Bama TD. He ran a long way, the ball traveled a long way, and caught it damn near with his turned from the point at which it originated. Another example was this year, maybe Rice, when the ball traveled 80 yards in the air, and he caught it a yard out of bounds (not his fault it was oob).

    In a subsequent post, I even referenced other players being surprised or caught guard off at the arrival of a pass. In that season of 22, not 23. One hit Roschon in the damn head.

    Yes, that’s all part of timing/route running. I’ve referenced it previously that QE is often anticipatory thrower. It looks great when it works but less so when not. As an inexperienced dude, he was a little anxious but that improved in 23 and will likely in 24. Probably anxious to avoid hits. A little too excited at times perhaps.

    I gave numbers to support the theory. A theory as to why his sack per pressure was high relative to his peers in 23 but was far less so in 22. I made no declaration as to his overall abilities.

    Sorry, I don’t know if you’re Joel Klatt, Joe Montana, Todd Dodge and Bobby Burton rolled into one. I’m glad he throws the most catchable ball you’ve seen but not sure how that’s supposed to wow me. But there are numbers to say that his ball in actuality to date , at this level, is around 65-70% catchable. The catchable rate in 22 was probably not as high as in 23.

    I look forward to your next bolded post. Perhaps throw in some italics, underlines so I can tell if you really mean it.
    • Haha 1
  9. But also PFF pressures is such an odd thing and I don’t think it’s very accurate at all. See our pressures vs Penix. 

    Their exact definition of how it’s recorded is not known to my knowledge but should have some consistency across all games/teams.

    I know there have been pressure rates quoted from elsewhere that vary. They’re just working under different methods.

    From what I gather, multiple players can have a pressure on one play in PFF whereas as others may look at it as only one per play. So if Murphy and Burke both whiff on a QB on the same play, each gets credit for a pressure. No idea what constitutes a pressure though.

    The value would be in its relation to the rest of its own database with data created under the same methodology.
  10. I am just pointing out his sack per attempt was dramatically lower in his first year, based on attempts... He was solid at avoiding sacks that year, some argued to careful at the time. Just odd 

    It was probably part caution but part just throwing it and hoping for the best.

    In 2022 his average time to throw was 2.44 with an average depth of target of 10.5 yards.

    In 2023, those were 2.57 and 8.4.

    He threw screens 18.2% of the time in 2022 versus 18.1% in 2023. So you wouldn’t think that would significantly adjust the average time to throw or depth of target.

    In 2022 he got rid of it quicker and threw it deeper. Part of that Worthy tracking issue likely goes hand in hand with this. QE was too rushed and threw the ball before his pass catcher was ready. In just the OSU game, you saw Bijan, Roschon, Whitt, Sanders all had instances of the same. It wasn’t just Worthy. I don’t recall the breakdown but essentially no one got rid of the ball that quickly and threw it so far downfield than QE in 2022.

    His pressure rate in 2022 was 22.6% (23.7% in 2023). His sack rate per pressure was 13.9% in 2022 (25.2% in 2023 - not sure why it’s different than what I quoted in previous post).

    He likes to decide and throw quickly. His average time to throw when kept clean was very similar each year. So the real difference was he was more patient in trying to make something when pressured in 2023. And that resulted in more frequent sacks but more first down scrambles too.
  11. For the season there were 162 QBs that qualified searching 20% of 212 dropbacks as a minimum.

    QE was 155 of 162 with the lowest pressure rate. Nix was 162. Beck 161. Bowman 160.

    QE was 25th highest in sack per pressure. Shedeur was 20th. Of all the guys in the top 25, only 4 others had a pressure rate in 20% range.

    QE was at 23.7% pressure rate. 24.3% sack per pressure.

    I can’t quote with certainty but from what I can recall in looking mid-to-late season that the pressure rate was lower and the sack per pressure rate was higher at that time.

  12. I will fully admit, I root for the most physically gifted player to play. I also realize that doesn’t always work out. I used Crawford as an example of a guy I rooted to take the Safety job, until I saw him play safety. 
     
    The best way to fix the red zone, is to have the ability to run ball in the red zone. Probably why Neto is getting a long look. 
     
    OL will be solid either way, so no need to stress out on this position battle. I am sure this thread will find a position or coach to bitch about. It’s is called Surly for a reason. If I had to pick I would guess  DL or LB.. 

    Well, yeah, Crawford is fast and looks the part. But one false step or a slight hesitation turns that 4.4 into a 4.8 real quick. And the vast majority of plays aren’t played on 40 plus yards so catch up speed doesn’t help much. I’ll take football players over athletes any day. Ideally, you want those that are both. Like Bert Auburn.

    Take it whatever grains of salt you like, but I looked over some PFF rankings. Minimum 500 snaps (just random choice). 632 Olinemen from 2023.

    Our run blocking grades had us ranked as such: Jones 58, Banks 120, Jake 197, Dj 296, Conner 397.

    Pass blocking: Banks 18, Majors 34, Conner 58, Jones 131, DJ 327.

    Overall: Banks 54, Jones 65, Jake 145, Conner 315, DJ 343.

    Pass Blocking Efficiency: Jake 19, Banks 72, Jones 73, Conner 105, DJ 404. I had looked at this somewhat past mid season. Banks, Jones and I think even Majors were top 10 so they fell off a bit.

    In any event, G play needs to improve on both sides. Certainly, that can be significant in the red zone. I’d expect it to be improved. Maybe significantly.
  13. He just wants the most “talented” player to play. I get that. Neto has a better tool belt, than Conner. This is the type of debate Longhorn fans would have killed to have 5 years ago. Neto is being forced to compete with a 2 year starter on what was a decent OL last year. If Neto takes the job that is a really good thing. This isn’t a situation where people are pining to put in a true freshman, because there really aren’t any other choices. This is a legitimate competition.  Speaks to how far this roster has come the last 4 years 

    Oh I know you want the guy who looks best on paper. But there will be bitching about some dude even in years when we win it all. That’s just the way it goes.

    We did not fail to cover those last 12 yards cause of our LG. Not to say it was any one players fault.

    If Neto is the guy, I will assume he earned it along with the assumption that Conner is improved too. I’m just not worried about the roster. At any position. Even interior DLine.
  14. He improved because his coaching improved. Conner has had same coaching that Jones had to improve. conner hasn't improved. Campbell is a better run blocker than pass blocker at this point in his career. I don't see Campbell whiff as much as Conner. Also Campbell was in his 1st year as starter where has Conner wasn't. 
     
    but continue to defend the worst starting OL from 2023.

    Jones improved for a number of reasons. First, he was never a LT. Second, continuity of scheme and staff. Third, maturity/repetitions. When evaluating his ability, you should have allowed for that. Some of his whiffs in 2021 were most likely confusion. That’s a bit where Campbell is. Maybe not confusion but confidence that causes him to be a tick slow.

    I’m merely highlighting the positives a player brings to the table.

    You don’t see Campbell whiff as much? Well that solves it. Must be fact.

    Since Marlin guys used to make you cry, where you reside? Teague, Fairfield, Crockett.
  15. Do you understand the differences in the situations when addressing this topic with me here?
    1) You can't find a post of mine on this site where I was telling the board that Jones or Majors would be replaced. I'm sure, like damned near everyone here paying attention, I bitched about their play at times. I don't think I did, but it wouldn't surprise me. I know I never said either would be replaced. 
    2) Umeozulu is already getting the starter reps at LG. You don't have to believe my "sources", just believe Bobby and Gerry and what they are telling they are seeing with their own eyes and being told by staff. This isn't some "time honored tradition" of wishcasting. This shit is happening in real time, whereas nothing came of any movement in your prior two cases. Past performance is not indicative of future returns and shit.
    3) Even if a younger player is coming on in practice, the act of replacing a starter, late in a successful season, as part of a high functioning unit, would be disruptive in ways that jeopardize team chemistry. I am not sure how this is an elusive concept. 
    Rooting for a player over another player is goofy shit unless they're a friend or family member. Best guy wins. If the staff deems Umeozulu to be the best fit at LG, I'm rooting for him to kickass. If it winds up being Conner somehow, I'll cross my fingers that a light has clicked on in his head and hope for the best but will be grounding expectations in the reality of what I have seen for consecutive seasons. 
    If I didn't value you your opinion in some form, and your outlook, I wouldn't bother to interact with you on a regular basis.

    Sorry, I tend to include different components of the overall discussion on the board that may not be specific to a posters specific quote.

    I never singularly referenced you about the Neto/Conner situation, but there were several posters that referenced it. Some even questioning Conner playing in the first place. But based your post, one could infer that Neto wasn’t playing well to start 2023 and that’s why Conner started then he got to finish because he started and wanted to maintain continuity. I absolutely understand sticking with continuity in the Oline if it’s working. And that an off-season can change that dynamic too.


    For two years running, there was discussion on this board about Majors being replaced. I never said you specifically made that reference. We (or I) will never know about Angilau getting reps at C and whether that was a legit threat. Seems like we’ve flipped Gs in the past during the spring. Had different 1st and 2nd teams. I’ve read people jump to conclusions previously based on that (again not necessarily you). I interpreted that as cross training and seeing who pairs up well. All smart and positive coaching decisions. Is it cross training? Is it saying Neto take over? Is it I need 3 Gs and Neto needs the reps? No idea, but that’s where I am. I’ll know when the season rolls around.

    Come on. We all have favorite players for whatever reason. Sorry if I pull a little extra for some to give BO&W the middle finger. I’m good with best man wins but believe in depth and keeping all engaged too. I won’t lie I prefer seeing a guy grow within the program versus the one-year transfer too. If preferring Worthy over Mitchell for that reason makes me small, so be it.

    I’m also to the point of “we’ve got enough talent that we just need to play great at the right time” no matter of who is in the game.

    It’s still if Texas wins, I win.
  16. You can't use Jones as an excuse considering the coaching staff over the 1st half of his time at Texas vs the last half. Poor example. 
     
    Conner has 3 years with this staff and he still whiffs his fucking blocks, can't move defenders in short yardage situations, and gets stonewalled when he pulls. 

    You bitched about Jones often. Pretty certain people stated he shouldn’t play or should be gone. He improved as an old guy. Oddly enough, the things you reference on Conner were things that Jones did show the ability to do in 2021 ( I’m not sure how much pulling he did).

    Why do those things mean something different to you now? And you complain little about Campbell with those similar struggles in pass protection at an easier position?




  17. I don’t limit any players upside or timeline for when they achieve their peak. You’ll likely never see me write a dude off so sorry that bothers some. And I’ll sure as shit stick up for some.

    What I do know is the parties that make the decisions on playing time didn’t give Neto much time in 2023 whether he was outpracticing Conner or not. Truth is I’m a proponent of giving guys opportunities and would have been perfectly fine with Neto getting more reps. My post wasn’t even about next year but last year anyway.

    It is a time honored tradition here to bitch and moan about replacing our least favorite olineman. And that was wrong for Jones. It was wrong for Majors. Not based on my hope but based on the decisions of those granting playing time. Do I hope Conner wins the job? Yeah, cause those here wrote him off. I hope for a great season for Conner, Neto gets some run too then whips ass before he goes to the NFL. Since my previously stated guess was whatever gives us the best chance to win, then that’s my 2024 prediction too.

    It is difficult for me to give credence to your sources when I don’t know specifically who they are. Yeah, I gather you have some amount of power, influence and connections. I do give some credence to your comments (note I said Neto may be better above, but I have no way of knowing). I’ve certainly seen enough dumbassery in coaching at various levels to know that simply missing isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

    But you don’t value my opinion. That’s fine. I will just to continue to annoy you with them although that’s within your power of control.
  18. Correct, Old school Mike is not very useful for many games today. There are always exceptions. Multiple comments about Blackshire being too slow. If people dont think he is a useful addition to the LB room vs power Run-centric programs, than what value does he bring on the field? That also puts a serious question to his value on coverage teams. All I have seen is posters saying what he can not do on the field and pumping up the leadership angle. Perhaps my reading of comments would change, if anyone posted what they thought he could add to the field.  

    If he can plug a hole in short yardage like no other, there’s your value. Particularly since Sweat was a true ass kicker in that department.

    If not, oh well, it’s a short term deal and not everyone hits.
  19. Thing about Flood is that he's got skins on the wall for development, too, not just recruiting. Though it did still take some NIL help to jump start that, after a decade and a half of mediocrity. We've had guys who were good at one or the other (or neither) but not both since... I don't even remember when.
    But I figure nobody's perfect, and chalk this up to that. I can't see practices, so I don't know what's going on with the other players, if there's a blind spot here or what.
    Truth is, we haven't had the depth to do much if an OL was underperforming; the guys behind the guys were invariably worse. We should have depth now, but OL still have to develop. It's the second-hardest position on the field to learn other than QB.
    tldr: I don't think we've got anyone better, yet. But we should, soon, though maybe not this year.

    I’d lean towards the group is selected based on “gives us the best chance to win.”

    I’d be interested to see what others are seeing that shows Neto is better (and maybe he is) since he played a whopping 62 snaps on the season.

    I’d wager that if Campbell were better then you might potentially see something different on the left side. Campbell gave up the most hurries (by 40%), tied most QB hits, more than twice as many sacks, tied for 2nd most hurries. All with the lowest pass pro reps. And just as a frame of reference he allowed more combined sacks/QB hits than Jones allowed as LT in 2021. As a G. Against weaker pass rush competition.

    You can’t have both Gs struggle in pass pro and Conner is certainly better there than in the run game. Additional protection of your QB over greater movement in the run game is likely to play a part.
    • Hook 'Em 7
  20. IMG_6286.thumb.jpeg.36ae4d60b8b4263ef4fe385b518e76e8.jpeg
    Remember when this was one of the most contentious subjects on the board just a year ago?
    image.gif.729c988df38ac3dc5992ad09e301e47c.gif

    Interestingly enough the highest completion to Worthy on deep throws (20+ yards) was in 2021 at 33%. This year was 26%. And 20% in 2022.

    But I certainly ‘member as you do.
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