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Posts posted by Had Enough
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4 hours ago, Nigel Tufnel said:
In this vain, I will say that Lil' Nigel played quite a bit against several players on the roster this past season. Two were good at 15-16 but didn't really develop past that, and two were players where we just never saw it. All of them were head scratchers to us and all 4 will not be on the roster next season. I have said on here plenty of times that Schloss is a relentless recruiter and a good judge of talent historically. The differences we saw between Schloss and Pierce were stark.
Let’s not play both sides of the fence here. You want to implicate all of them rather just the 4. Who are the players you know?
Yes, you’ve said that multiple times about Schloss. Most fans that care about that sort of thing are likely well informed and know that going back to TCU Schloss has found and/or developed talent. You could argue that once he got established at TCU there’s been better talent at TCU than Texas. If you were to use MLB as the measuring stick.
If I’m interpreting 64 analytics properly, Tennessee has had 19 guys enter the portal. And I see a recent article from the Knoxville News that kicks it up to 22. LSU and UGa last year were at 14 and 15, respectively. These are amongst the best rosters in the country. I’d presume they are at or near the top of the NIL food chain. All these guys are not leaving due to the lack of natural ability. They also aren’t all leaving because they’re supremely talented. Teams are churning 25 to 33% of their roster. I’d wager even the best have similar guys to those you reference.
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2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:
Just because I think the reaction here would be hilarious....I'd love to see the team dog pile after winning a super with full beards.
Need to highlight it with excessive eye black.
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Speaking of QBs, what happened to @WinningIsHard?
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5 hours ago, UTEE97 said:
I get it but what's the answer to his question? Why did Sark start Quinn over Arch, who immediately became a Heisman frontrunner after being named the starter?
For many Heisman level QBs it’s about their surroundings more so than them. Numbers and team wins. Throw in the name Manning and a few splash highlights, and you have an immediate contender.
Nevermind that Arch has an additional 8 months of practice reps, film study and maturity over last season. He’s a 3rd guy who should be hitting his prime college QB self.
I’ll maintain my stance on Ewers over Manning. Sark thought he could win with both. So he stuck with the experienced guy. I believe even after the season Sark stated Ewers can “make all the throws” so there’s the theoretical prototype QB that he likes. Sark wouldn’t sacrifice the shot at the title just because. He liked Quinn, thought he could win and went with the incumbent.
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38 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:
Spencer had arm problems at Indiana State. It's part of the reason he wasn't drafted.
I don't think our arm injuries are any more frequent than most other programs. We just focus on us so it seems like it. When you carry 20 pitchers on a roster odds are a guy or two will go down every year unfortunately. Just the way it is in the sport. It just always seems to be an important guy for us (Witt, Mercer, Spencer, etc.) instead of the middle reliever who was only set to get 20 innings.
Probably true but Witt, Harrison and Mercer’s rehab were a little long. And Witt and Mercers were two years of no production.
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7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:
Just throwing it out there but errors don’t count as earned runs…
I’m well aware, but presumably balls that we can’t get to become hits, which may then become earned runs, right?
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3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:
We should take bets on the first one of those to need TJ surgery before the season starts...
I kid I kid.... but seriously.
I am bit curious about injuries. A Longhorn baseball savant sent me a podcast with Schloss. He mentioned Mercer hitting 97. That’s two years running he seemed slated for a big role but pitched very little. Then Spencer. Last year was worse.
Curious if we have a higher, more longed injury rate than others.
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Damn. I wonder what our staff ERA would have been had our 2B, SS, and 3B been able to wipe their own asses defensively.
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8 hours ago, Nigel Tufnel said:
Coach Johnson has been known to drive the parents of the LSU players a bit crazy at times. He likes to tinker during the season. After Eyanson left the game at Texas, if Johnson puts in Evans or Cowan to shut things down, they very well could have won the game and series. Instead he used what seemed like 15 arms from his pen, and lost. By playoffs, he knew what he had and how he wanted to use them.
Schloss will greatly increase the talent at Texas starting this coming season.
In college baseball, there’s pretty much never a team that knows what it has to start the season. Not 1-9. Not the entire pitching staff. Odd that we are supposedly a program that is based on CWS or bust yet lose our shit on a midweek loss. Those games are available to find out what you have for that post season run.
Cowan had pitched 3 innings Friday night. Let’s keep in mind he’s a Wofford transfer that throws about 90. You are correct they could have gone Evans and maybe that works out, buts it unlikely he finishes that game.
In the end, LSU looks to have trusted about 4 pitchers. Highlighted that Cowan only started twice - both post season. Then Eysnson came in to finish Little Rock. Had they lost their Spencer, they’re likely worse off than us in spite of having all that talent on their team. They didn’t trust those fast ballers to throw strikes.
The difference in LSUs final outcome as compared to ours is they got a weak regional. They didn’t lose Anderson or Jones. Then they stayed out of the losers bracket so their lack of trust in that staff didn’t impact the outcomes.
Here are some numbers to chew on for Horns versus UTSA. Bing and Howard combined for 7 innings of no hit ball on the early season against them. Ruger gave up 1 run in 4 innings. I believe the discussion then was it very much mattered to UTSA.
Now Burns. He gave up 4 hits and 1 earned run on that Tuesday night. He allowed all 3 inherited runs to score.
So let’s advance the season a couple of months. You’re up 6-5. One out, 2 runners on. Who you going to out of the pen? Burns it is. He proceeds to give up 3 hits, 1 run of his own and allows both inherited runs to score. The only out recorded was a throw out at home.
Teams don’t know what they have in the early season. The situation you highlighted is a bit of contrast with our end to the season. We had some data points for several guys but chose to ignore them. I haven’t heard the rationale for our regional pitching choices, but the choices were odd. And several were not good with signs indicating that potential outcome.
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1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:
Who says its not already in the works my man?
I’ll be ready.
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Sounds like some of you need to pull some strings and get us Wisconsin.
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8 minutes ago, closetojumping said:
“1 more out of 10” should be “1 more out of 11”.
I think “big time marquee teams” gets a little conflated in these discussions for most people. If Texas is scheduling better half P4 teams or Notre Dame, that’s cool with me and I’d bet many others. I could get my head around Purdue or Arizona or Wake Forest, but I’d prefer Michigan State, Kansas State, NC State and higher in those conferences.
Well damn your math is correct. Maybe I was just rounding for ease.
All those schools you mentioned would be good on the schedule with a mix of variation, newness and historical opponents. Not exactly sure my reasoning but I’d like a Northwestern. Maybe paired with historical mid-tier P4.
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9 hours ago, Darth Tron said:
If you think an early season loss to someone like Ohio State will keep Texas out of the 16 team playoff, then you also think Texas is going to lose a couple more games throughout the season. A one-loss Texas that won the SEC and dropped an early season behemoth game doesn't have to worry about being on the wrong side of the bubble. Conversely, a Texas team with three losses wasn't going to win a title anyway. Scheduling big time marquee games only helps our brand, exposure, and recruiting even if we don't win them all.
As you said, the system has changed, and a 16 team playoff changes the calculus of scheduling. Your concerns are more appropriate for the former 4 team system.
Who are your big time marquee teams?
There are two parts to this scheduling equation. There’s a good chance you see some programs willing to risk a loss and some that are not. For many of those teams, they may be better off playing a mid tier SEC team as their win probability goes up. I’m not sure other SEC teams are willing to schedule 50/50 games.
Outside of the Ohio States, Bamas, Georgias, Oregons, and Texas, the more realistic goal for most teams is make the playoffs and build from there. And that early season loss accompanied by a championship game loss may leave little wiggle room for all those teams.
I don’t think OSU will be afraid to schedule. I don’t think Texas will be afraid. UGa and Bama are SEC so that doesn’t matter. Who else will be willing?
A 3 loss team is certainly a possibility to win it. A game 1 loss and a championship game loss only leaves 1 more out of 10. If you consider that a virtual impossibility, why are we expanding?
I would mark my calendar today to watch us play at Oregon. Also, don’t care if we get left out with 3 losses. Don’t take my speculation here as me advocating for weaker scheduling. I’m not.
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9 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:
The win over Bama in '23 got us into the playoffs.
I understand being in the SEC now our SOS is less likely to be a question, but those big non-conf games can still be a differentiator.
The 4 team playoff era versus more teams than that is not comparable. Plus a non-conference SEC road win is likely worth more than any other road win - maybe an OSU road win is comparable. Now, if you win the SEC, you’re likely to get the highest SEC spot even if #2 has the better non-conference win.
An extra loss is likely as detrimental as a win can be a positive. That extra loss puts you one loss closer to exclusion but also drops you down in priority seeding. When talking a long season, an extra, physical game makes that more difficult.
I am in favor of the extra tough game. I am quite certain a number of programs will not favor the additional risk.
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43 minutes ago, Ignatius said:
What year (about) do you think that happened? The shit I listed above (along with offensive linemen being allowed to block with their hands outside their shoulders) happened in 1977/78….
That was about the time when Bill Walsh became known, but the rules you reference were less impactful to his offense than the traditional passing offenses of that time.
Obviously there’s been a continual evolution of the rules to make it an offensive oriented game. But Walsh (maybe it was someone else that started, but he was the guy to my knowledge) was the one that made the passing game an extension of the run game, which would have made the head slap and more use of hands less impactful as the ball was out quicker and often shorter.
As for Texas high schools, in my experience and knowledge, it was the 90s that passing offenses became prevalent. Prior to that it was pretty limited except for the Detmers and a few others. Not really dual threat QBs yet. Looks like 7 on 7 began in 1994 or so. It’s not coincidental that there were few NFL QBs from Texas in the 70s, 80s and into the 90s.
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51 minutes ago, Ignatius said:
NFL became a passing league because over time they outlawed the head slap, chuck beyond five yards, etc., and defenses had to adapt. Still, I think the changes were good - go watch a game from the 70s on YouTube sometime, it’s like watching paint dry (and I’m 58)…
It was a bit more than the rule changes. The west coast offenses came around. And at the high school level in Texas, things changed significantly. Pre-1990, there were few NFL QBs from Texas but now it’s a high percentage, maybe more than any other state. It wasn’t because there weren’t athletes at QB in Texas. It was the offensive systems, the coaching, the coaching mentality, limitations on summer programs, 7 on 7, etc. People realized 3 yards and a cloud of dust was asinine.
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1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:
Guys with multiple years of production are always going to be safer. I do see your point about Moroknek's production against decent teams (quick math says he hit .234 in the 11 games against the teams you mentioned).
His strikeout rate was around 16% and dropped from 21% the previous year, so that is a good sign.
You are right that it is sometimes a crapshoot with these lower-level guys. Moroknek is far from a guarantee middle-of-the-order guy who hits .300 with 15 homers, but based on his production over two years, I am confident he will contribute more to winning than Winfield did this year.
That’s fair. Winfield can likely be a contributor given time - just not sure patience is available. I missed watching many early season games, but he didn’t look comfortable on defense so putting in the work on both sides is pretty difficult.
You know more than I do about the inner workings of the program, but, I’d be a bit surprised if he’s back too.
I don’t know a damn thing about NIL allocations with respect to baseball, but I’d imagine it’s more difficult than other sports particularly given we’ve got draftable high school guys and current players. And none of that is known today.
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1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:
I think it's fair to say a guy who had 1/3rd of his season hit total against Prairie View A&M was a bust.
Looking under the hood, there were some red flags at ULM that we kind of ignored or just thought would get better. He hit .278 in Sun Belt play in 2024 so it wasn't like he was lighting the world on fire in that league. The defense was also horrific at both ULM (4 errors, .951 fielding%) and here.
I'd be mildly surprised if he is back.
From what I recall (certainly may be way off), Winfield was a top 10-ish portal guy last year. If so, it raises questions about those rankings. I do not believe he was highly thought of out of high school. That’s fine and not an end all, be all but then only had 1 season at the college level. Slash lines are posted, but it’s very easy to drill down into the numbers. I wouldn’t expect most fans to do so, but it takes 5 minutes to drill down. His numbers last year were built largely on lesser teams.
The same can be questioned for the Butler guy. He has two years of production though and his slash line was higher. Look at his numbers versus Louisville, Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, UConn. Those are more indicative of what you might see. He doesn’t walk a ton. He doesn’t steal bases. Their team is horrible. Statistically , you cannot garner much from a 2-3 with a double and a homer performance when you lose 31-5. No, he didn’t have much protection around him but at the same time I’m not sure there was a reason to pitch around him what with a team ERA above 10 and 15 wins. There likely weren’t tons of close games. Around 6-7 losses were 3 runs or less.
Obviously he has some skills, but he’ll be far from what has become his comfort zone. He likely needs a good start to boost that confidence.
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5 minutes ago, utee94 said:
You sure about that? Now? Have you even SEEN Earl try to walk around lately????
Even so, do you think you could tackle him?
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One thing with DBs is that if they play early they get exposed decently often. Jahdae was great as a soph then struggled late as a junior once he got dinged up then was outstanding to cap his career as a senior. He had limited action as a frosh so you didn’t see his lack of maturity exposed that year. He was the most important and likely most impactful player we had on defense this year. He was incredibly versatile.
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6 minutes ago, WBT said:
Why? Game times are part of the home field advantage.
Now Oregon St playing 3pm local today and Auburn playing 8pm local makes no sense.
Home field advantage decided in a somewhat subjective manner is enough.
They could have easily flipped UNC-AZ with UM-UL.
It is a small thing but an advantage nonetheless.
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3 hours ago, Beau Vine said:
They always seem to do this.
I have a long but distorted memory. Still pisses me off whenever we were playing UC Something Something in game 3 at what was 1 am our time. Bs to have a team travel then give them odd, avoidable start times in complete conflict with when they normally play.
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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:
Right now I can't recall one thing I do particularly well, but it's been a rough day.
We’ll hang in there kid. Tomorrow is a new day.
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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:
Wut?
At some point, you mentioned two things you know well or do well. Or something along those lines. Perhaps one was your profession.
I was attempting to recall what those things were.
2026 Texas Baseball
in Baseball
Posted
Roster limits or not this is the likely outcome for a number of programs. It’s probably more NIL/portal than roster limits. It’s the Saban methodology. Sign and churn the roster with churn being even easier due to the portal.
The Texas 2026 commit list shows 21 players. I can’t imagine there’s close to 21 of those guys on the roster come spring 27. There’s 17 for 2025. Yes, I’d expect the freshman numbers to dwindle at some point.