Jump to content

JerrysJheriCurl

Full Members
  • Posts

    542
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by JerrysJheriCurl

  1. The upcoming sanctions are gonna slam and go hard. 
    Russian economy will be more janky than it is currently.

    You got your mind right Vlad?

    What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. So you get what we had here last week, which is the way he wants it… well he gets it. 
    Any man playing grabass or fighting spends a night in the box.

    Russia spending a night in the box soon.
     

  2. 1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

    I have mentioned it before way upthread, but I have three direct reports in Moscow, all of whom are between 40 and 50, well-educated, well-connected, with plenty of years working abroad, including plenty of time in the West. They are the proto-typical Muscovites who are to a large degree open to western ideas and deeper European integration, and they regularly consume English-language media. And even with all that, all of them feel the exact same way as your co-worker. 
     

    They definitely see Putin’s faults, and they don’t support him blindly on every issue, particularly when it comes to domestic issues. But when it comes to foreign affairs, they’ve got a real issue with NATO (and the U.S. in general), and they don’t see the Alliance as being purely defensive or innocent. 

Ultimately, we don’t have the benefit of solid public opinion barometers in Russia. Levada Center is the only one that is considered “independent” by Western standards, and Putin’s treatment of Levada by forcing it to register as a foreign agent would indicate that it truly is not under his thumb.


    So, with that caveat, here’s the most recent stuff from Levada:

     

    707601655_ScreenShot2022-02-21at6_12_26PM.thumb.png.d6079c03d918bb07bf2aa53a5b39707b.png

     

     

    470128846_ScreenShot2022-02-21at6_25_08PM.thumb.png.94806c7207d994fdca60d911faee4004.png

     

    https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/02/18/approval-of-institutions-the-state-of-affairs-in-the-country-trust-in-politicians-2/

     

     

    And a broader thought on his polling: When US analysts put on their “Putin-Understander” hats and say, “His support is collapsing at home, so he has to start a risky war abroad”, it is generally pretty flimsy political analysis, because it really isn’t true. Sure, his numbers move in ebbs and flows, but support has been over 60% for 20 years…and without anything even close to a threat (and nooooo, Navalny is not a threat), I don’t see him making decisions to go to war based on a fear of losing popular support. In fact, rushing into an unpopular war would be the biggest risk to dragging those numbers down, so the idea that this is a "Wag the Dog" driven move is a silly one. Increasing pensions in the provinces (which Russia is somewhat in a position to do economically at the moment) or conducting certain other domestic reforms are generally enough to buy him enough support to get back over that 65% number). Now, he certainly creates media spin to keep his base content…and he is certainly spinning things now to prepare them for war. But that is a very different thing than fearing that he will lose his claim on power due to sliding poll numbers.

    Levada also released in October 2021, that only 53% of Russians trusted Putin. 
    Putin “starting a risky war abroad” to get more support. Not likely.

    Putin gearing up and going for a land grab a la Crimea? Very likely. He didn’t get much, if any, push back before. Might as well test the waters again. 
    Recognize DPR and LPR and call them part of Russia. If Ukraine does anything about it, the messaging he’s doing what is best for/protecting Russians living in Ukraine. Furthermore, stating Ukraine doesn’t even really exist. It’s just Russia and has always been historically. 
    I’m protecting Russia and Russians! 
    Get your nationalism on.

    And the bump in his support at home is the cherry on top.

  3. 21 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

    Isn't there some crazy stat that only 20 percent of the Russian men survived WW2.  Might be that trigger

    I believe it was 27 million that died, and almost all were men. I think it was closer to 40% of their male population that perished in WW2.

    Of course, these are not concise historical estimations, but they are pretty close. 

    But, yeah, it pretty much decimated their male population. 

  4. Mongo only pawn in the geopolitical game of life… but here is my semi-informed on the impetus of the events.

    Ever since Crimea and the sanctions that followed, Putin’s favorability amongst Russians has fallen significantly… as their economy has suffered. Sanctions such as The Magnitsky Act put a hurtin’ on his oligarchical cronies as well. 

    This is nothing more than a land grab and a ploy to increase his popularity.
    Putin has been in power 20+ years and has not expanded its territorial blueprint, save a few relatively small areas. These are crumbs, in comparison, when the USSR was in its prime. Nice legacy Vlad.

    In twenty years plus he has turned the country into a dictatorship (and shares spoils with the oligarchs) and the current populace doesn’t have the Soviet nostalgia. They do not connect with the current regime. Russia has been stuck in neutral the last few years thanks to Vlad for the most part.
    He needs his popularity back. Otherwise, he can’t keep his dictatorship for much longer. 
    Mobilize a disproportionate amount of your military? Bold strategy Cotton. I think he overplayed his hand. 
    Now, what he does next? I don’t think anyone knows, including himself. He’s not the brilliant strategist some folk tout him to be. 
    He’s an opportunistic thug. Nothing more, nothing less. 
     

  5. 5 minutes ago, RamjetFDO said:

    Was just about to say that I had my first DDA sighting of the season!

    9198f96a0a53c1863288d5a231d3317d.jpg

    /nobert

    That dude has been moving around the whole game every 5-10 minutes and sitting in open seats. 
    He is leading chants though. 

  6. 1 hour ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

     I wish there was a way to be analytical about it without it turning into a shitshow but I know that's just not possible. 

    There is. That’s why grown folk on this thread are trying to keep it that way. 
    We have been discussing the politics and policies of the situation for some weeks now.

    We are modeling how to get your discourse on. Feel free to lurk and learn hermano. 
    Just put some respeck on this thread’s name a la Birdman. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  7. 14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    As we continue to debate whether Ukraine should threaten to kill tens of thousands of Ukrainians to save Ukraine via a method that probably wouldn’t work, I am asking you to watch this completely insane video released on the Russian Defense Ministry Twitter (hashtag we are with you Kamila):

     

    I drank my grandpa’s glass of water (It’s Piss???) is a pretty lame excuse. Do better.

    There’s a reason why they are competing under the term ROC. 
    Dragos gonna Dragos. 
    WADA ban out front shoulda told ya. 

  8. And TASS has LPR and DPR reporting they received the most intense shelling by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

    Peskov said that the Kremlin was keeping an eye on the situation and it is, “very, very dangerous,” due to Ukrainian provocation.

    Russia feeding its people more rationalization to go into Ukrainian borders.

    Cue Michael Buffer. 

×
×
  • Create New...