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SL Xpress

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Everything posted by SL Xpress

  1. Russian tank driver charitably clearing their own mines:
  2. Article about assault brigades in the Bakhmut area. It's interesting to follow the assaults in the south with all their western kit and then compare them to Bakhmut area with their Soviet era kit. Regardless, the obstacles faced on both sides are similar, although the south faces a lot more opposition from the air from what I can tell. Also, the south has better access to armor. Not actually meaning to state this factually. Just what it looks like anecdotally and from what the soldiers say. But regardless of where the attacks are, assault teams consistently want more tanks. ‘It’s a lottery’: How Ukraine’s assault brigade counterattacks near Bakhmut (kyivindependent.com)
  3. There was a lot of Darwinism at work there. The person doing the hammering with the shell. The person in the background watching. The person doing the filming. And then someone had to grab the phone out of the remains of those three and then upload it for views. What a time to be alive. Unlike those guys.
  4. Air Force and Army just need to watch how the Navy does it. The Gerald Ford has been a piece of cake. Seamless development and deployment schedule. Seamless, I say.
  5. Wagner is German, as in Richard Wagner, the famous composer. Not Russian. Not saying anything about Russian’s lack of a ‘w’ sound, but it’s not really the culprit in this case.
  6. Is this news? I thought this was a known issue? I must have read this several dozen times when they were being donated. I did read the article. Sounds like they were desperate for firepower, and so used them despite their terrible fit for the role. BTW, the article was written a couple of weeks ago. One thing about those vaunted 6 Finnish engineering vehicles on the Leopard 2 chassis. The reason the Finnish donated them is because they didn't work during testing. The Finns said it was because of the rocky soil in Finland, but it may have been they just don't work period. The truth is the Ukrainians aren't ideally kitted out to fight this counter offensive, but they're doing it anyway. And, they're having successes. My biggest concern above all others is Zaluzhnyi talking about the lack of artillery shells in that recent Washington Post article. They're not getting F-16s anytime soon. Who knows when they'll get cluster munitions or ATAMCS. But for goodness sakes scrape together everything possible to get them artillery shells. Artillery shells and mobile air defense. Oh, and thank you thank you thank you to the Brits for supplying the Storm Shadows. Holy shit what a difference those have made.
  7. Here's an incredibly tense 43 minute video of two days on the southern front, all from the sergeant's GoPro. He edits out the actual attacks, but the footage he does show of his communications with his people, and the stress of the environment they're in, is compelling. At the end he claims there were no killed in action during the two days, which seems unbelievable. There were a lot of raw soldiers based on the conversations, but they all seemed extremely well kitted, and at least had some training. I know the southern assault groups were all volunteers, but many of them had not seen combat before. The troops around Bakhmut are composed of many of the veterans of the conflict, but they don't have western gear for the most part, other than artillery and mortars. Anyway, it's obviously a time investment. The biggest takeaways for me were the interrogation of the injured Russian at the beginning, the style of communication from the sergeant to the troops, his narration about midway through, and then the complete abandonment of positions by the Russians. Oh, not all the Russians abandoned their positions. Some of them will be there until their bodies are disposed of.
  8. Well, I’ve always had issues with how Democratic administrations tend to prosecute war ever since the end of WWII. Having said that, Biden’s administration has been Bush-like in the way elder Bush rallied the world to kick Iraq out of Kuwait. They’re not analogous except for how Biden has helped galvanize support. I’ve been impressed. Compare that to how Obama handled the annexation of Crimea and the installation of thugs in Donbas (no Cloak Room - he was under a mandate to get us out of conflicts - not get us into new ones) or Trump’s narrative around the conflict specifically and NATO in general. Its okay to be disappointed until you compare the Biden administration to any other. This has been the most active administration in supporting Ukraine we could hope for, and I for one choose to remain grateful regardless of any differences I have. Not to say I think you’re wrong, because I don’t. I just have a different perspective on it.
  9. Here's some cheerful news about Russia pulling personnel out of the nuclear power plant. I wonder why? "The Russians are reducing their presence at #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reports. The Russian representatives of #Rosatom have already left, and Ukrainian employees of the plant who signed contracts with Rosatom are being advised to evacuate by July 5. Meanwhile, the number of military patrols in #Enerhodar is gradually decreasing." Another article from the Kyiv Independent. No less cheery! Military intelligence: Russian occupation forces 'gradually leaving' Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant (kyivindependent.com)
  10. As an aside, I see people getting excited about the use of ATACMS to take out the Kerch bridge, and rightfully so, but that's target B for me. I want to see them used to take out the airfields in Berdyansk and Crimea. If Russia can be pushed back to operate their air power deep inside their own country, it changes the dynamics of the battlefield for this counter offensive dramatically. Russia has terrible air refueling capability. And on that note, a fuel depot was apparently hit in Berdyansk this morning:
  11. Zaluzhnyi rightfully annoyed about Western criticism of the speed of the counter offensive: ""It annoys me," Zaluzhnyi told The Washington Post that partners say Ukraine's counteroffensive in the east and south has started more slowly than they expected. According to the commander-in-chief, Ukrainian troops reach a certain position every day - even if it is only 500 meters. “It's not a show that the whole world watches and bets on or anything like that. Every day, every meter is given with blood." Zaluzhny adds that in order for Ukraine's counteroffensive to proceed faster, more weapons of various types are needed. "Without full supply, these plans are not possible at all. But they are carried out. Yes, maybe not as quickly as the participants of the show, the observers, would like, but these are their problems," says Zaluzhnyi in an interview."
  12. Nice article about the effectiveness of the Bradley's. The 47th brigade is the group that was wiped out in that disastrous early foray through a Russian minefield that has since been paraded by Russian sources. I love the part where the guy snuck out of the hospital the day after checking in with a concussion, went to the battlefield, started up the Bradley, and drove it off. Ukrainian soldiers credit 'perfect' US-supplied Bradley vehicles (msn.com)
  13. I'm commenting on the video provided which was used as evidence of his prescience. The video was absolutely directly after the annexation of Crimea and the installation of the thugs in the Donbas. Prior to that Russia was in the midst of bribing Yanukovych and his cronies with billions of dollars to be another Lukashenko. If Russia had been able to successfully embed Yanukovych for life like they intended, then there wouldn't have been a need for the operations they subsequently embarked upon. Zeihan's expertise is geography, so of course he thinks in those terms. And yes, it has a tremendous amount of merit. No question. Putin cares about the kidnapping of children not only for demographics for Russia, but also because he's trying to eliminate Ukrainian identity. If demographics were truly his priority, and not the restoration of Imperial Russia, the genocide of the historical mistake of Ukraine, and the establishment of Russia as the savior of traditional values, he wouldn't be embarking upon an exercise which has had a catastrophic impact on the demographics of his country. No offense intended. There are some good points within your stance. But I don't think you're presenting them well. Talking about Putin kidnapping children and sponsoring initiatives to increase birthrates while sending hundreds of thousands of men in their prime to their death, and chasing off hundreds of thousands of the most educated part of his work force to avoid being called up, either sounds like a man who isn't prioritizing demographics, or is prioritizing them with a really stupid strategy.
  14. So right after Crimea and Donbas you think it was a brilliant insight to say Russia would go after the rest of Ukraine? Really? He also got the timing and methodology wrong. REALLY wrong. In my strongest opinion he also got wrong the whole idea of Ukraine entering a trap that Russia sprung when they went down to defeat the separatists. There’s way more he got wrong than right, while the one thing he got right - Russia would make a play for Ukraine - was a blinding glimpse of the obvious to me. Again, I’m not here to debunk Zeihan. I like the guy. I enjoy his observations and how he comes to his conclusions. But he throws a whole lot of shit out there to see if anything sticks. When we talk about how amazing he is at predicting future behavior, I think it’s importaht to note he’s also shitty at predicting future behavior, because that’s not the point. He’s running what if scenarios. Specifically worst case scenarios. That’s important even if they don’t come to pass.
  15. Cowboys versus the Bills. The fact is indoors has more competition in December than women’s basketball in March or softball in the summer. From a network perspective its value is going to end up being in part its ability to draw a demographic not as interested in the NFL. It’s not ideal, but it doesn’t mean it’s doomed to failure, either. There’s an unfortunate ceiling to its growth In terms of viewing numbers unless it can successfully navigate that dynamic. There are also issues with the final being played the day after the semifinals. Whoever plays in the early match is going to have a competitive advantage. It would be better to have a day separation regardless of when the final is played. Another problem is the AVCA convention. I wish they could separate the two events, simply because joining the convention and the final four event constrains where the final four can be held. They need cheap hotel and convention space that’s within walkin distance of the arena hosting the event. No other sport works with the same kinds of restrictions. A Sunday start then loses some of the coaches who don’t want to book a late flight after the convention has concluded, which loses some of the incentive for the event to have the two intertwined in the first place. That said it’s progress to get locked in on ESPN and ABC. We’ll see how the numbers look.
  16. The national championship will be televised on ABC. Both semifinals on ESPN.
  17. I don’t have a problem with Zeihan. I’m too declarative. It’s effective rhetorically. Passion and conviction changes hearts and minds. The central issue is his speculations regarding the Kerch bridge. It shouldn’t be taken seriously. He likes throwing out what ifs. It’s important to note. The video you linked is a good example. Based on what he knew in 2014 he speculated that Russian friendly areas - including Odesa that was famously founded by Catherine the Great, and the implied move of Kherson over to Russia by more clandestine means would allow Russia to shut off Ukraine access to Dnipro and the Black Sea, their grain would have no export market because it’s too low quality for Europe, the US would not have any incentive to support Eastern Europe in any kind of face off with Russia, and Germany would then be impelled to send troops through Poland to fight off Russia in Ukraine. Cue ironic laughter. Instead the lines of battle became static. Russia quit risking their military in excursions in Ukrainian territory. I don’t agree with his assessment that the Ukrainian military fell into a trap. But they never were as aggressive in taking back territory. Poroshenko was elected as rabidly anti Russian, then Zelensky was elected as a primarily Russian speaking Ukrainian who wouldn’t be as much of a hardliner towards Russia. And a pro Ukrainian Biden was elected president. None of which could be predicted in 2014 regardless of demographic trends. Doesn’t make them wrong or unhelpful. The truth is - and we’ve talked about it unpteen times before - the invasion was a massive mistake. But the crusades were a massive mistake, too. They were both carried out for the wrong reasons by zealots where what made sense was less important than the religious cause behind them. With the crusades the restoration of the Holy Land in Christian hands. With the invasion the restoration of imperial Russia and the final erasure of the historical mistake of Ukraine. But that wasn’t predictable in 2014 by Zeihan because he didn’t have enough information at his disposal. He saw any military action in Ukraine as a mopping up exercise for the final remnants of an isolated Ukraine. As far as predictions go, that’s a really bad one.
  18. When you say he nailed it, what exactly did he nail there? Don’t get me wrong. I enjoyed the presentation, but anything important had already occurred (Crimea, Donbas) and the rest of his predictions didn’t pan out. Specifically Odesa never went Russian. And it wasn’t 4 years before they did anything more radical. As we know, it was 8 years. I think it’s important to have speculative theorizors, but it’s also important to recognize them as such. He likes taking data and analyzing what if scenarios. But timing and how many of his what ifs come to pass aren’t nearly as important as just having some of them come true. In any case, the Kerch bridge was a Ukrainian special forces operation using a truck bomb and forward intelligence of a fuel laden rail car to create a massive explosion that damaged the bridge and the underlying support structure. Not a clandestine IS strike or unannounced long range weaponry. Which is not my effort to debunk Zeihan, but merely to ask people to not necessarily take everything he says completely at face value. He doesn’t even take everything he says at face value.
  19. My guess is none of them, but there are doctoral theses written regarding which players on the Texas roster are walk-ons and which ones are on scholarship. There’s no Jack Texeira working within the volleyball support staff, I can tell you that much. Unlike every other full scholarship sport, you can’t even realistically run a roster with just the 12 scholarship players. But you can’t give partial scholarships either. So the sport has these asinine 3+1 and 2+2 deals, where players walk on part of the time for a handshake agreement to give them a full scholarship later down the road. I wish they’d just make it 15 scholarships like women’s basketball. But a lot of programs can’t afford that, so here we are. Last year’s roster had 14 true legitimate, hard core scholarship level players, plus a couple of other players who could earn a scholarship at other schools. One of them - middle blocker Deandra Pierce - apparently now has a scholarship with Georgia Tech after being a walkon at Texas for two years. OH Kendra Miller could start at a number of lower tier Div I schools. Crownover probably could. Caffey was a late enrollee because of shenanigans at Nebraska I won’t bore you with. She was a 2nd team All American on Nebraska’s national championship finalist team but earned a graduate certificate at Texas over a semester as a walk in with NIL money. Same thing with long time starter Jenna Ewert from Colorado, who transferred to Texas at the start of summer. My point is that it’s not EVER completely clear who is on scholarship and who isn’t at Texas, much less what the future roster will look like in that regard. Very talented players are willing to walk on at Texas, whether because they’re a legacy, they want to be a part of a championship program, they hope to earn a scholarship in the future, or some other reason. Or they’re willing to forgo scholarship money with NIL money partially replacing it. But in terms of talent, all three of these players SHOULD be scholarship players. They certainly have full ride offers from other schools. My GUESS is that they’re all going to be on scholarship. But who the fuck knows? People love asking how many players we’ll take in this class. I don’t know All of them? For sure we’re holding a scholarship for Macaria Spears. It’s likely we’re holding a spot for a middle. The big recruiting weekend is Labor Day weekend, with the national championship banquet/gala on Friday and the Stanford match on Sunday So we’ll see who shows up for that and what the class looks like afterwards.
  20. Addison Gaido, 6’4 (maybe 6’5) opposite out of Georgetown HS and club Austin Skyline announced her commitment. With libero Krueger and OH Vander Wal that brings the 2025 class up to 3
  21. The only thing he's missing here, IMO, is that Putin doesn't value competent leadership in charge of the military. He values a military that won't plot a successful takeover. Shiogu's incompetence isn't a bug. It's a feature. No one wants to install Shiogu as the leader of Russia. That makes him extremely valuable to Putin in ways that go beyond being a successful military leader.
  22. He already gave his explanation when he met with the African leaders. Russia voluntarily withdrew because they (air quotes) signed a treaty with Ukraine through negotiations with Turkiye that Ukraine promptly reneged on. Just more horseshit.
  23. I didn't ever venture to cloak room until late last year. It takes a while for any of us to recognize names and associate them with specific opinions. Of course I recognize a lot of the handles from reading their posts on the sports boards, but it's not the same. Usually they have to be pretty extreme or else voluminous with their positions to even make an impression. I'm just going by what I'm seeing here now. I don't see what I consider reasonable conservative views being espoused very much, and when they are, they're generally buttfucked. I'm not criticizing that. Maybe conservative views should be dismissed outright for legitimate reasons. Certainly I don't pass many of the litmus tests that tribe sets out. Or, I could very well be wrong. I absolutely don't have enough information to make an informed judgement, as you're making clear. So all I have is my uninformed one. But in my uninformed opinion, the cloak room has an echo chamber feel to me. I would imagine people who share similar political views to mine would agree, even if you would not.
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