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Sandbagging Steve

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Posts posted by Sandbagging Steve

  1. 3 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

    Wilmer isn’t intentionally spewing falsehoods.  He’s always tried to put the best pro pac spin he can, but typically gives up what he knows.  

    This entire round of realignment was pretty much done a long time ago. It was just a matter of letting it play out. Wilner and the rest of the West Coast media are the only reasons it looks like a circus. Well, that and a couple of presidents over their heads. But those presidents had no leverage.

    Wilner reported half-truths from only certain sources to feed his minions. This is not journalism. It is not "giving you what he knows." He had the ability to vet all sources from various sides and then figure out who had an agenda. Report it. That's journalism. You shouldn't report one side of a story and ignore everyone else. That's why McMurphy is a good reporter. 

     

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  2. 4 minutes ago, bullet said:

    He did tell some of the truth after his initial run of Pac Kool-Aid.  He said the Pac would blow up after this contract around 2030 and the Washington, Oregon and maybe Cal and Stanford would go to the Big 10.  He viewed it as inevitable.  He just said it wouldn't happen this year and that Oregon and Washington would not get into the Big 10 now.

    It's always good business to eventually tell truths/partial truths and then go right back to rallying the subscriber base. You need something to fall back on when the shit hits the fan.

  3. 1 hour ago, BachelorTrek said:

    Wilner thought that none of this was going to happen, and as the story evolved, his commentary sounded more and more like Denial.

    He also sounded annoyed that this upset his PAC-world or interrupted his vacation, or all of the above.

    Listening to that Entitled Fuckstick eat crow on the post-mortem will be gold!  Can't wait!   Lulz.

    Wilner knew all along what was going to happen IMO. That is what's wrong with our media.

    Wilner delivered a story that kept his agenda driven sources happy. He knew the full story and never told it.

    It's the plain-pleasure principle. Wilner delivered a story within the worldview of a large list of subscribers out West. In other words, his subscriber base has gone way up since this all started.

    He has no integrity. It's all about making money at the cost of telling the truth. There are very few real journalists and media members left in our society today.

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  4. 28 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

     

    For realignment sickos like myself, we're never going to see another day like today.

     

    Just wait until the ACC explodes like a supervolcano. There are potentially 11 schools with Big 3 criteria. This will be the current NCAA's last stand. Whether the NCAA survives in name or not is anyone's guess. What's not up for debate is there's going to be a major overhaul in the rules and the way they are formed.

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  5. 3 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

    And as soon as the ratings aren't what they hoped for (yes, they'll be your narcissists that watch so the ratings will be non-zero), the pie for the have-nots shrinks, and I wouldn't be surprised if that could happen during the contract since ESPN won't take a bath on this.

    Ratings are going to go up the more these moves are made. People want to see competitive football between like-minded programs and then have the best of those teams play for a title. 

    Blowouts do not get good ratings.

    Rigged championships turn people away, even if they still get fairly good ratings.

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  6. 4 hours ago, bullet said:

    All the people outside the Big 12 who were convinced no Pac school would deign to join the Big 12.  But CU did and Arizona really pushed UW and Oregon into acting.

    And everybody but Brett McMurphy and me (since I believed him) thought as the USC guy did.

    You're forgetting someone here. Any time I've mentioned the word "Oregon" over the past year I've had 5 posters ready to go to war over it. I finally just stopped posting as I had a vacation coming up anyway. The new word is "Florida State."

    All these moves have been known for a very long time. The chaos was deliberate. As I said last month, the fans went off the rails when Bob Thompson and all the West Coast media started lying their asses off.

    Oregon and Washington were always going to the B1G from the moment USC/UCLA left. Big 12 moves aren't hard to figure out from there.  These moves weren't nearly as chaotic as they may seem. Sure, there are some idoit presidents that have to be given time and then shoved in the ass. But that doesn't change much at the end of the day.

    I said it throughout this process: McMurphy is the best sportswriter in the business. He's not flashy. He doesn't do politics. His sources are vetted. He's always been this way. He's an old-fashioned journalist. No wonder Disney fired him. He's not willing to stir up drama when there's not any and he's not willing to play politics.

    ACC is next.

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  7. 3 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

    If the  rumors of the Big 10 taking Stanford are true, they will be in position to put ND in checkmate at will, with Stanford, Michigan, and Stanford all in the Big 10, and once there's a clearer picture of how playing 8 vs 9 conference games factors in with the playoff committee, ND is about to have to decide between anchoring either the ACC, the Big 12 or joining the Big 10.  It isn't in the Big 10s best interest for three of their members to play ND yearly. Especially when they expect two of those  three to constantly be in the playoff picture. 

    The Big 12 is probably most balanced so the extra money from playing ND vs the chance of that one of those games being the difference of getting another team in the playoffs might not be worth it. The SEC, with OU and UT coming in, doesn't benefit from  ND playing their teams very often either, leaving ND faced either actually becoming a true Blueblood and anchoring a conference, or joining one.  

    Speaking of playoffs, this PAC thing is going to put a wrench in the current setup. If they survive, the Big 10  and the SEC are not going to be cool with losing a playoff spot or two to a conference made up of UO, UW, the scrub Cali schools, Boise St, Hawaii Wyoming, SDSU, Fresno, San Jose, SMU, Saint Marys school for the Blind...  If UO or UW can't go undefeated with that schedule, they should be banned from football for a year, so going undefeated shouldn't automatically be a playoff spot either... At least the Big 12 has legs to stand on. They have two recent playoff teams (one made the finals). UFC and BYU have shown they can play big boy football outside of fluke seasons. Baylor, TT, OSU, ISU, and WVU are not considered cupcakes by anyone's metric. It doesn't shock anyone when they beat good teams. They do quite often.  But if the PAC dies (which is probable) it still changes the playoff auto bids.  Either way, there will be some questions people will want clarification on as soon as the smoke clears out west 

    FSU is interesting. I think they do have some leverage and I think they're willing to spend to find out. I don't know if they'll use it now or in a year or two. It seems like they are preparing to use it now. I do feel enough teams in the ACC have a good landing spot to blow that conference up completely.

    I don't think SEC/ESPN can take a chance on the B1G landing USC, ND, FSU and Miami. Long term, that could potentially kill the SEC. If the B1G is all over SEC territory and recruiting at a higher rate and starts winning championships at a high rate, they already have the bigger regional fan base. They could then invite Texas, Georgia and Florida to the B1G for a huge payday. This is all way down the line, but you have to plan for all the possibilities. If I'm SEC/ESPN, I'm not losing FSU.

  8. 1 minute ago, bullet said:

    I don't remember that but its possible.  Mainly I remember Stanford had to be convinced by USC to accept them.  Arizona St. was the one who had a really good run under Frank Kush.

    ^^All true.

    So, I just Googled to find it was ASU that tried to turn down the PAC offer. Here is an article written a few years ago.

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/college/asu/2019/06/22/pac-8-expansion-asu-has-ua-thank-push-move-wac-pac/3535235002/

     

  9. Also, when ASU and Arizona joined the PAC back in the day, one of the programs had to be convinced to make the move. I believe it was Arizona that had to be convinced by ASU and the BOR to make the move. I'm sure Bullet can clarify for us. I do remember reading something about it decades ago. I say that to say I'm sure the Board and Arizona will talk some sense into that idoit Crow who is trying to kill the entire ASU sports program right now

  10. 2 hours ago, Gaffords said:

    The new demand is matchups.  FSU vs Florida, Bama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, OU, etc on a regular basis, is worth more to ESPN than FSU vs Clemson. Especially when Clemson would likely follow... And if there is anything to the Big 10 rumors are real, that puts UNC and whoever else with value in the SEC also. Which is where everything is headed anyways. If not now, 13 years from now the ACC. Will get carved up.  If I were in charge of the ACC or the Big 12, I'd really start to consider it being time to shed bloat and merge the best of what's left to maximize their value. It's what's the Networks are practically doing. They are maximizing the bang for their bucks..  it used to be regional matchups between rivals that made money...  Then TV money came in and it was the size of your footprint that had the value, but now, they are after the national eyes.   I'm a huge college football fan, but I don't care about rivalry games between Ole Miss and Miss St for example. Not many outside of their region give a shit either. But more of them would tune in to watch FSU play either of them.  Paying 30 to. 50 million to the Purdues, Vandys, North Westerns. Etc while paying 20 million to the FSUs and Clemson isn't ESPNs ideal of good business.  They would love nothing more than to pay the schools what they are worth period...  There is a gap between P5 and G5s. Most of the G5s that have P5 value have made it up a rung, and as  we are about to see, some P5 bottom feeders are about to lose their free ride and get sent down the ladder... the ACC is next... 

    It's simple, the PAC viewership is something like (and has been for decades) 1/4 less than the other conferences (per population).  This is why they are dead in the water today. The teams that have value, become more valuable if you put them playing teams back east. Now those teams stop being shackled to that late window. 

    The ACC death came with the introduction of conference networks. They are in the SEC and BIG 10 footprint even if there's no SEC/B10 teams in that state... The value they have is maximized by matching them against schools most of the population in their area follow. Sending many of them  to the G5 pool where their 4 thousand fans can watch them playing more along their level is a win win for everyone...

    The BIG 12 is im a good place. People in its footprint watch football..  it's a perfect landing spot for teams that have value, but are redundant the SEC/BIG 10... I'm sure there's teams in the SEC and B10 that the networks wish they could swap out with some Big 12 schools, but they know they can't win them all..  iif they could, they would dump about half the p5 schools completely and create the NFL Jr out of the rest.. 

      

    Good overview of where this has been heading since the OU lawsuit in the 80s. It's taken a long time to wrestle the power away from the idoit college presidents but we are getting there. The elimination of the PAC and ACC will put a wet blanket on the nonsense that are Stanford and UNC running a conference. I guarantee you that's not an accident. Larry Scott didn't kill the PAC. Stanford killed the PAC. He was nothing but their puppet.

    This all looks chaotic, but BCD, the executives have a pretty good idea of how this is all going to play out. I feel the chaotic nature is by design. Some college presidents have no common sense and this is usually needed to get to the best end result. It also can help minimize potential lawsuits.  Magically, the B1G and the SEC are going to both win realignment and pick up the programs some of us predicted many decades ago. The Big 12 will reap the benefits of being the most well-run organization outside the Big 2. The finished result will not look so chaotic.

    There's no doubt Robert Robbins has just been letting this play out, but he has known for the past year the final result. As already stated, this chaos is going to lead to a finished result you could have come very close to predicting 30 years ago. The other option was USC/Texas/OU partnering up to form a third power conference. UNC/UVA are the only real coin flips and they're currently under ESPN control.

    A few of us have been preaching this for years before Bob Thompson's bullshit agenda caused a percentage of posters to lose track of the real reason all this is happening.  

    1. Conferences will not stop at 16.

    2. Conferences will eventually have more conference games than the 8/9 that is standard right now. This will create a more balanced schedule across the landscape and increase compensation with more competitive games.

    3. This is about the elimination of deadweight to get more big matchups. Not only big matchups but fewer blowouts. One of the reasons the Big 12 has overperformed is that they play an exciting brand of football and produce fewer blowouts.

    This is happening in real-time with consolidation of conferences which will then one day lead to the elimination of Big 2 football members like Vanderbilt. But let's not go too far, programs like South Carolina and Ole Miss still have some value. Flagship programs with competitive football programs bring some value.

    Programs on the Big 2 chopping block: some private schools, secondary programs in small states with limited recruiting territory, and teams that just are rarely ever competitive on the field with no hope of rehab.

    There are more worthy Big 2 programs than just Notre Dame. There are many variables that go into the value of a program. 

    4. ESPN/FOX/NBC/CBS is not going to get cash-strapped in this scenario. These moves will increase revenue in the long run for very little added investment. It will eventually save money as well with the consolidation of deadweight.

    4. Commissioners and media executives are slowly taking as much power away from college presidents as possible and establishing some damn rules for the game.

     

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  11. 9 hours ago, Vertigo said:

    I think you are overestimating the appetite of the other conferences and the willingness of the TV partners to expand that far. Why would ESPN be fine with the B12/BIG/SEC poaching all of these schools and then immediately doubling what they were contractually obligated to pay them over the next 10 years? If there are a maximum of 3 more spots available in the B12, a maximum of 2 in the SEC, and a maximum of 2 in the B1G, then that means some quality brands in both the ACC and the PAC are left out in the cold, and the ACC teams would have no real incentive to dissolve the conference.

    At that point, the ACC should just merge with the PAC leftovers and keep their current media deal. It may be the best thing for all remaining parties and might actually reflect market rates.  

    My post was a reaction to the FSU news. FSU may or may not bolt this cycle, but they've shown ESPN/SEC that they have leverage. 

    I don't think the SEC wants to lose FSU to the B1G.

    If FSU leaves, the ACC isn't going to make it five years.

    I wish the number was 16, but all three of the Big 12, SEC and B1G will have no choice but to grow and keep up. Hopefully, they will also increase the number of conference games with additions beyond 16.

  12. FSU and six other members of the ACC want out. At least 11 of the 15 members would find a home making more money in a better situation.

    UNC really as interested in leaving as they're leading on to the other members?

    Why can't the conference dissolve? 

    1. Notre Dame (B1G/SEC)

    2. FSU (B1G/SEC)

    3. North Carolina (B1G/SEC)

    4. UVA (B1G/SEC)

    5. Miami (B1G/Big 12)

    6. Clemson (B1G/SEC/Big 12)

    7. Virginia Tech (Big 12/SEC)

    8. NC State (Big 12/SEC)

    9. Georgia Tech (Big 12/B1G)

    10. Louisville (Big 12)

    11. Pitt (Big 12)

    On the fence:

    12. Duke (who knows)

    13. Syracuse (Big 12)

    Leftovers: Wake Forest, Boston College

     

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  13. 9 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

    Great post.

    1). Isn't it crazy how much offensive NFL talent Sleepy Mike Sherman was able to assemble for a bumbling and inept Aggie team around 2010-2012, while Texas - fresh off a string of MNC games and multiple top-5 finishes - had no viable quarterbacks, a bunch of skill-position JAGs, and one of the worst offensive lines in the league?

    2). Totally agree on 2011 Oklahoma State.  They got screwed out of the championship game they deserved.  And the argument that was used to deny them their chance ("got to win your own league") was completely abandoned in order to hand Alabama a mulligan and a crystal ball a year or so later.  

     

    I've cut back on sports. The media doesn't realize a short-term win can be a long-term loss. When you rig the system to get the results you want, people get turned off and don't watch as much moving forward. I don't want unethical politics in my sports viewing. It reminds me of the way we allow policymakers free rein. I hate that stuff. I've gone from the biggest college football fan on the planet for over 30 years to more of a casual fan. I still follow some of the behind-the-scenes stuff, especially UT, but I'm not there nearly as often on Saturdays.

    The lack of rules doesn't help either. The greatest coaches in the history of college sports are typically nothing but unethical cheating frauds. This is a 100-year-old problem created by college presidents from coast to coast. A refusal to set and enforce a set of rules for the sport. It's not hard. But let's be real, it was all about not paying the laborers for their work while screaming at the rest of the world about ethical values. It's hypocrisy. 

    College presidents across America should be forced to hire a sports GM. They should not be determining rules. They should not even be in charge of their own athletics programs. They're incompetent at the subject matter. 

    I'm paying attention now because some of the current events have a chance to change athletics for the better. There's still a long way to go. I just want an even playing field so the best coaches with the best teams EARN their rewards on the field/court. It's what sports is supposed to be about... competition

     

     

     

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  14. 1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    That’s completely fair, and I do wonder if the landscape of college sports looks completely different if Colt McCoy doesn’t go down on that fateful night in January of 2010.

    But ESPN just shit on the Big 12 at every turn for the following decade, and as was often pointed out on this board/Shaggy, it was pretty inaccurate.

    IMO, nothing changes if Colt wins the title. 

    SEC was buying all the recruits. Their new strategy of paying thru 3rd parties allowed them to return to Texas recruiting for the first time since ATM's probation. It also helps when the NCAA president was a "friend of the conference."

    Texas had not recruited well on the offensive side of the ball for several years before 2010. The recruiting rankings were a sham and then Gilbert was not the all-world QB to cover up the deficiencies.

    Big 12 refs didn't help.

    Paid recruits + lazy recruiting (Mack, Davis, McWhorter, etcetera) + bad luck = Failure

    The media was never going to allow a small fan base like TCU or a non-helmet school like OSU in a four-team playoff unless there were no other options. It's always been like that. It's why Texas and OU should have left a long time ago. BTW, I'm a believer that 2011 Oklahoma State and 2014 TCU were the best teams in the country in their respective year. Nick Saban said privately he didn't want to play TCU in the 2014 CFB Playoff. But Texas was the best team in the country in 2008 and their league cost itself a national title by voting against them.

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  15. 1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

    The best thing about the PAC problems and USC’s defection is that little bitch boy Lincoln Riley’s plan to run away from competition in the SEC partially backfired, with him now having to face OSU, Michigan and Penn St every year. 

    B1G has a long list of bread mixed with outdated schemes. 

  16. On 7/17/2023 at 9:38 AM, justhookit said:

    Looks like I’m headed there in a few days. Anyone been to Fajardo? Will have 1 day there in Fajardo  for sure to check out a boat but could stay longer if worth it. Otherwise I’m just planning a short trip, maybe 2 nights in San Juan.

    @faps @closetojumping @Sandbagging Steve

    I've been on a trip out West and didn't see this in time. I hope you had a fantastic time in PR. If you're ever in that area again, it's worth staying at least two or three more days to see Vieques and Culebra.

  17. 1 minute ago, USC Traveler said:

    That will be an epic trip!

    Thanks, buddy! I'm really excited to get started as I haven't been able to even see our national parks much to this point in my life. I'm very excited to get to Glacier. It's kind of why I'm heading straight in that direction from the start. After that, I will be doing some rockhounding in Montana and Canada before heading to the Dakotas and then circling back down thru Nebraska to fossil hunt on some private land in the White River Formation. 

    I will have to check back here at times to see what happens this summer. Lots of possibilities in realignment this year, which probably means nothing will happen!

     

  18. 9 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

    That sounds like an awesome trip.  Where are you going ?

    All over North America, mainly camping and doing work from my laptop. Climbing, hiking and rockhounding. I'm going to extend it to a year if I can pull it off. I will be heading to Yellowstone next week and then 10 days in Glacier to get things started.

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    • Like 1
  19. 1 minute ago, USC Traveler said:

    We'll see what happens.

    Everything that I just quoted indicates otherwise, which is consistent with what Thamel, Auerbach, Feldman and others have been saying for the last 11 months.

    The only people who have been pushing the idea that the BIG is going to add UW and UO are Dodds and McMurphy.

    The bottom line:  if the PNW schools aren't additive now, why do you think they'll be additive in the future ?

     

    The same reason they've been adding and subtracting teams for over 40 years. In reality, for around 100 years. Oregon and Washington bring value to the conference. It may not be $70,000,000 to $80,000,000 but they are healthy additions. They're just in a geographical outlier of this country and it will take time.

    The former commissioner didn't want to add the PNW for the sake of adding them. CEOs don't operate that way. There's a reason he wanted to add them. And he gets info from the TV execs. I believe this issue has to do with travel and jealousy more than anything else. And the stats back up that UW/UO are worth more than UVA.

    ACC is a dogfight with the SEC and it includes Notre Dame. The PAC is a geographic outlier for the SEC, so there is no competition and they can wait and even negotiate down on the amount given the first contract.

  20. 21 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

    From the Athletic today:

    If Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, North Carolina and Miami were to become available, that’s a real and major domino to fall in conference realignment. As one Big Ten source put it, “Those schools are where the real value is.”

    That person was particularly interested in Virginia and North Carolina as new states and/or markets for the Big Ten to extend down the East Coast. This Big Ten source believes expansion out East makes far more sense than expanding into the Pacific Northwest, which has not had nearly enough support internally or among the league’s media partners since the idea was first broached. 

    And they will eventually expand to the west

  21. 19 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

    From the Athletic today:

    If Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, North Carolina and Miami were to become available, that’s a real and major domino to fall in conference realignment. As one Big Ten source put it, “Those schools are where the real value is.”

    That person was particularly interested in Virginia and North Carolina as new states and/or markets for the Big Ten to extend down the East Coast. This Big Ten source believes expansion out East makes far more sense than expanding into the Pacific Northwest, which has not had nearly enough support internally or among the league’s media partners since the idea was first broached. 

    Exactly my point.

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