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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. 1 minute ago, bolverk said:

    Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

    The other aspect is that media, and parties themselves are well aware that the public are suckers for polls on anything, and seldom if ever does anyone actually look into things like methodology, who's doing the poll, who paid for it, etc.  "We polled 3 people in the Utah desert about the CHIPS Act, and the results were shocking!"

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  2. 1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

    Problem is, we don't ever see the internal ones to actually see even post mortem how accurate they are.  There is likely some truth to the idea that they miss on things as much as anyone else, but I'm betting they are pretty good.  

  3. 3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

    Comb over? Like a werewolf drinking a piña colada at Trader Vicks, my hair is perfect. 

    The picture does not show her two year old daughter, and I haven’t turned the TV on yet, but I think it has kids movies, so maybe it’ll work.

    Well having a prior child is just an indicator that a woman is familiar with sex.   So she may not be familiar with whatever the hell it is I do.   

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  4. 2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

    if you had told me an hour after the Biden Trump debate that we’d be sitting here with Kamala the favorite in almost every battleground state the night before election day, I would’ve said you were high on your own supply.   No matter what happens, the campaign was run as well as you could run a campaign, the two candidates performed beyond expectation,  and the thing that we have no control over - how many crazy stupid hateful people love Trump - we have no control over.

    Win or lose, they left it all on the field.  But I think she is going to win and we will have to sit through months and months of Trump’s  lies, bullshit, and occasional violence - until we slap down the last attempts to steal the election again….

    …and I think sentencing is November 26

    I'll be in Vegas on 26th, I wonder if the sportsbook will take wagers on sentencing.....

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  5. 2 minutes ago, MaxHorn said:

    I just remembered that all DISD schools are closed tomorrow, so I have to take care of my 6-year-old autistic son all day. That's probably going to minimize my planned heavy drinking self-medication throughout the day. It's going to be a long day...

    I don't know if you are in the path of rain or not, but I imagine it will be a good day to take your son to a park and enjoy the fresh air, have a good day, and not stew on it.  Just a thought anyway.  

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  6. One more prediction to make, tomorrow, right around this time 9 EST/8 central, Georgia will be the first big shoe to drop, one way or the other.  All the mail in and ev vote should have posted state wide by this time, and from there it will just come down to math against Atlanta.  Analysts should not take very long to figure this against turn out. 

  7. 1 hour ago, Js1 said:

    Trump campaign:

    Low energy
    Empty rallies
    Rushing out memos and polls from junk pollsters to offset Selzer, or even fake polls (Ryan Fournier)
    "Please vote or I'm in big trouble"
    Relying on the lowest propensity voters (young men) to show up and save him
    Already calling it rigged, Dems cheating, etc.
    Already having campaign leaks shifting blame
    Insiders in the GOP already blasting warning bells about women/senior women abandoning Trump
    No ground game

    Harris campaign:

    Big (dick) energy
    Packed rallies in swing states
    No leaking, no backstabbing (yet)
    Know they have the highest propensity voters banked already (older women, young women, college educated voters, black voters)
    Pure confidence from the likes of Nancy Pelosi, David Plouffe, etc. 
    No one sounding the warnings about lack of enthusiasm, ground game, etc. (no 2016 Debbie Dingell sounding the alarms)
    Such a huge ground game, they've had to turn away people 

    Counter Argument - Sushi

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  8. 1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

    unfortunate last name

    Well, on a positive note for the future he has the opportunity to redeem the name, and no one is going to remember who the fuck Vivek was in about a year beyond political junkies.  Hell, 90% of Americans couldn't tell you who Vivek is now.  

    The kid has a shot a carving a political future if he wants, he may just need to pick a more favorable district.  This is clearly a young man with ambition, so I doubt he's a one and done kind of guy.  

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  9. 10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

     

    We have one of these guys Sean Still, how is indicted for being a fake elector, running for state Senate here, and he's in a highly Republican area and likely to win.  Interesting though, we have young guy named Ashwin Ramaswami running against him and spending money advertising against him.  Ramaswami is all of 21 years old, but he's giving it a go.  I highly doubt national money is going to this, and I do at least find Ramaswami's claim to be a successful small business man to be at least humorous (again he's 21 years old). 

    There is, however and interesting aspect to this, the area that is being contested, while highly Republican, does have a significant and growing Indian population.  I'm interested to see how that plays out.  

  10. 5 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Bama, when was the last time you saw a 13% turnout gap by race in a presidential year?

    I’m using the SoS’s election data hub. I linked it in my earlier post.

    https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout#

    When was the last time you had 4 million people vote prior to election day in Georgia?  There is bound to be some level of statistical drift because what is happening is unprecedented.  Also, nothing here is in a fish bowl or stagnant, we are one of the fastest growing areas in the country, so of course there is going to be drift in terms of demographics.  

    However, if you want to believe that this all somehow driven by enthusiasm for Donald Trump in one of the most Democratic areas in the entire country, by all means.  We will know in about 36 hours.  One of us is right, one isn't, I concede my bias on this.  I've made my call in the prediction thread, I did it on Saturday, and I stand by it.  I could be wrong.  

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  11. 1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

    I know that’s a hard decision, but I’ll let Fled Cruz wallow in his spineless self-pity, and still want to punch Hawley more. 

    I hope you are quick, the sumbitch runs fast.  

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  12. 9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

    @BamaATL what say you?

    There is one other thing I sort of can't believe I didn't think to mention about South Fulton County as it relates to demographics, in particular white voters.  About 100k of the white population is gay/LGBTQ community.  That having been said, certainly not every member of the LGBTQ community will vote, nor will they all vote Democratic; but I'm gonna go ahead and wager that most of them will.  So again, demographics by racial divide alone doesn't tell the entire story.  

    I should say, I suppose one of the reasons that I am proud to be from Atlanta (though born and college educated in Alabama - family ties on that one) is that Atlanta's success has always been predicated on the idea of tolerance and acceptance of others.  Is that always perfect?  Certainly not.  This in fact so normal, and has been my entire life, that I didn't even stop think of it as being somewhat exceptional earlier as it applies to this conversation.  Basically, half of downtown is gay, and everyone around here knows that, and absolutely no one cares; which quite honestly is exactly how that should be in my opinion.  

    So there's that.  

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