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MeerkatBong

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Posts posted by MeerkatBong

  1. 2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    I also want to point out that Michael Moore called this midterm. He said it was not going to be a red wave. He did call Trump winning in 16 and Biden winning in 20 (I think?) so he may have a handle on the pulse of America 

    Also, I can't compliment you enough for your insights/contributions the past few weeks. Kudos and you nailed it too, more or less.

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  2. 1 minute ago, 'stache said:

    Maybe I'm just jaded that Oklahoma has gone full shitheel and women in this state overwhelmingly support assholes. If it helped in those states, great, whatever it takes. 

    Ah yes, sorry. I forgot men aren't allowed to comment based on data and statistics. I'll just mosey on off to an incel board since I'm such a fucking misogynist. I assume you've made no observations or comments whatsoever on Black and Latinx voting trends?

    Just quote our social scientist and thumb-on-the-societal-pulse scholar and what he says about white women:

     

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  3. 12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Man other than Texas, this looks pretty spot on.

    GOP house edge could be 5-10 seats, if they pick it up at all (come on California, bring it home) 
    GA to runoff (almost nailed Warnock's %), Dems pick up PA - narrow losses in NC and WI.  Dems are the favorites in AZ and NV (no calls yet). 
    Dems did indeed pick up MD and MA and kept PA, MI, WS, KS and NM so far.  TBD on OR and NV and AZ.  No runoff for GA (Kemp won outright).  GOP did keep TX and FL.

    Around 5-6pm, I was like, "fuck I was too optimistic."  Nah, so far, I feel like I was pretty spot on. 

    Seriously great job. You know your stuff politically!

  4. 4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    It may only take 5-10 Reps to throw a wrench in the whole majority.  Either the extreme or the moderates.

    Once the dust settles, Dems should start finding out who they can reach out to in an attempt to put together some sort of moderate caucus to play kingmaker.  Dems like Jared Golden would be part of that. 

    Also, apparently this favors the extreme R's (Freedom Caucus or wahtever they are called) as they can extort concessions from the rest of the R's with such a slim majority. It's the inverse of Manchin in Senate.

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  5. 10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Beto, Ryan and Beasley may have lost, but they dragged some important races across the finish line.  Abrams did not.  Warnock probably did more than her. 

    Beto - Lina, Briones, the Dem judges and helped with the South Texas seats
    Ryan - coattails flipped 2 seats in OH and held another
    Beasley - coattails flipped a seat in NC

    This was actually common from hearing anecdotes.  The Dem judges and Lina were a little screwed with the ticket splitters over "crime"

    What do you think and how do you explain that? As mentioned in the other thread, Abrams was a rising star just like Beto. What changed that she couldn't get the band back together of her former coalition and status quo who supported her in the past? I don't recall any self-inflicted wounds or controversy she stepped in from then and now.

  6. 32 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

    Democrats need to get over people like Beto and Stacey Abrams that lost their election.  They aren't special candidates who were wronged or whatever.  Because Democrats aren't outright authoritarian cultists, those two aren't deified to the extent of Trump and nobody is storming capitol buildings, which is nice.  But it's still basically just sour grapes that keeps them relevant.  Democrats hate Cruz and got emotionally invested in Beto since they thought there was a real opportunity to beat Cruz, and they wanted to believe that Abrams was cheated so they invested in her (and that martyr story), too.

    Meh.  Just move on.  Democrats in Texas need to accept that their only chance to win statewide is to nominate a Manchin / Bob Bullock type blue dog and go for the throat on a personal level when they are running against scummy people like Cruz, Paxton and Patrick.   Beto isn't that guy, in either respect.   

    Right after I read this post I read this on cnn.com:

    Biggest Losers from Last night:

    * Beto O’Rourke: O’Rourke came up short in his challenge to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Tuesday night, meaning that he has now lost three straight elections: 1) The 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz; 2) the 2020 Democratic presidential primary; 3) the 2022 governor’s race. In politics, like in baseball, it’s usually three strikes and you’re out. It’s hard to see O’Rourke credibly running for another office any time soon – a remarkable downturn for someone who was regarded as a rising Democratic star just a few years ago.

    * Stacey Abrams: Speaking of stars who have faded, the Georgia Democrat lost the governor’s race in convincing fashion as she was unable to replicate the coalition that got her close to victory four years ago. Abrams, who emerged from that first race as all the rage among Democrats nationally, looks far less impressive this time around. And with two losses in her two most recent races, it’s hard to see where a political comeback starts for her.

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  7. 4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    My wife talked about it with me at length Monday night.  I have some ideas on where to start.

    I just really don't want to.

    Someone like you would say not wanting to is a good thing. It means the reluctant hero is the hero that is needed. He's not doing it for self-interest, naked ambition, ego or vanity, etc.

    If Jose Velasquez can do it, you can do it. 

    BrisketTexan for ___ in 2024. I'll give your first $5.

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  8. 15 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

    He is done for any major office. Put him to use for fundraiser and registering ppl to vote. Give him a job and funds and let him run with it.

    I guess his next step will also tell us if he's in it for the right reasons e.g. ideologically, team-player, helping a vision come to fruition, versus ego/self-interest a la "I was born for this", though to be fair, I wouldn't blame the guy for not wanting anything more to do with politics after his gauntlet he has ran since 2018 and knowing he has tons of money.

  9. 14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    If you want to know the partisan margin in Texas, look at the Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals races.   Those are 1) statewide races where 2) functionally nobody knows anything about the candidates other than that they are GQP or D.  And in every one of those races, the margin was around 15 points.  At present, Texas is a 15 point GQP state on a generic ballot.

    Democrat messaging and campaigning is hot garbage.  I do not agree with Immamac that Texas doesn't love GQP insanity -- we clearly do.  We are a dumb, mean state.  That said, if the Dems want to have ANY chance, they need a candidate like what Immamac mentioned.  And that doesn't have to be so out of line with national Dem policies as to lose national support.

    Am I for clean energy?  You bet I am!  And Texas is positioned to be one of the leaders, thanks to our strong natural gas industry.  Natural gas is THE transition fuel for the next generation or longer - not just for Texas, but for the whole world.  Texas can and should be one of the world's leading exporters of LNG.  AND, Texas is also positioned to be a regional leader in additional energy technologies, blessed with our sunny skies and wide-open spaces.  All of those mean Texas jobs, and a strong Texas future.

    Am I a gun lover?  100%  Been shooting since I was just out of diapers.  Have a well-stocked gun safe.  I grew up hunting and still do.  I have a gun for home protection.  And because I grew up around guns, I'm a big believer in gun safety.  I keep them locked away where kids or visitors can't get their hands on them.  Guns are a tool -- a very important tool.  And we should take them seriously.  Prosecute gun crimes.  And keep guns out of the hands of irresponsible people, including people who are too young.  I would raise the age limit on the ability to buy high-capacity firearms -- if you want to shoot such a weapon with a parent or other adult, that's great, I think it's a great activity.  But an 18 year old should wait a few years before he can buy one himself.  Then, if he wants to go to the range to shoot it, I'd be happy to go with him and give him some pointers.

    I'm a child of the oil patch.  I'm a child of generations of hunters and gun owners, and I am one myself.  My family started working law enforcement on the Texas border for 170 years ago, we know that the border is something that needs both security and management to make Texas a leader in trade to make Texas even more prosperous.

    Blah blah blah.  All that can be done.  But the Texas Dems aren't doing it.

    Are you running in 2028? 2030? That should be enough time to get your city council and school board bona fides under your belt for a chunkier role.

    Semi-serious question.

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  10. El Paso is very cool. If you are used to creature comforts of a large metro (Dallas/Houston/Austin in Texas) then you will have to adjust your lifestyle a bit, but El Paso offers 75% of what those cities have.

    What it makes up for is in cost of living and culture-- a good analogy is that El Paso is to a major Texas city like what a college town is to a city.

    El Paso is more closely related to Las Cruces, NM than anything else as well. 

  11. 2 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

    NV is more of a toss-up at this point.  Latest from Ralston is that Clark County mail-ins might be enough for CCM to catch-up, but it depends on the number of uncounted votes there + number from Washoe County.  Otherwise, sounds about right.

    Thank you. When do we think NV will be known? Today? Days? Weeks? At least last night CNN was running with the "we might not have results for weeks"

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  12. 4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

    Betomania was a cultural moment in 2018. Really helped the downballot Dems and that's why the state's party leaders love(d) him. I think that cultural moment has passed and maybe it was more of a general repudiation of Trump in which he played a big part, but in Beto's and the party leadership's defense, Ann Richards ain't walking through that door. This is a party that ran Lupe Valdez in 2018 and MJ Hegar in 2020. It's not a very deep bench.

    Beto is at his best when he's doing townhalls, visiting every county, that kind of thing. I think he can still do those things effectively, and the next rising star in Texas politics will need to do all those things to elevate his or her profile and have a fighting chance.

    Beto really regressed though. Didn't win Tarrant or Williamson. As soon as I saw that in early voting, that combined with low turnout in urban counties, told me it was going to be a massive L and I think his team knew this was coming, too.

    You almost wonder if it was fatigue as well. What you described is exhausting, and this is his 3rd high profile (Senate, POTUS, Gov) race. Taking 3 high profile massive L's has to be emotionally and mentally exhausting as well.

    It's like what the Detroit Lions would say-- losing eats at your soul and wears you down and it's hard to shake that culture. Betomania was a force, then Ellen happened and it seemed to never get back on track. Now Beto is associated with political loss, fair or unfair (the Aegean stables that is trying to win Texas as a hard-line anti-gun D).

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  13. So, looks like Senate will be 50/50 again (GA/AZ dem, WI/NV rep), no change, and Republicans pick up slightly and take a slight majority in the House. Does that look like what everyone else is seeing?

    That's probably the best possible outcome for the markets and economy from what I was reading today about historical data on mixed congress and stock market and economy. Also, should be a good moral victory in that it bucked the historical trend of the incumbent party hemorrhaging seats to the minority challenging party in midterms. A referendum against the minority challenging party, even.

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  14. Just now, chainsaw said:

    That seems likeliest. If he's smart he would create Texas-based answer to Bannon's "Real America's Voice" and Ben Shapiro's "Daily Wire"

    Makes sense. I'm curious to watch his next moves-- he's generally well-liked by Dems and young people and seems to be passionate about his views and you'd think that is a value add somewhere moving forward.

  15. And not in the spirit of this thread when it started, but I think there is a lot to be happy about from yesterday. Voters were heard, democracy works, there were hardly any shenanigans from what I understand, and people are going to get what they want.

    Yesterday was a good reminder that despite all the polling and etc., this is why you play the game. Any given Sunday, baby.

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  16. 46 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Texas Dems clawed back their losses with Hispanics some (Gonzalez and Cuellar winning in South Texas), but the rurals are just lost.  There's no way to cut into them.  And they continue to swamp the urban vote.

    The only way to get it going here is to continue the bluing of the suburbs and exurbs, but unfortunately, Abbott and Co. are going to follow the DeSantis playbook and turn Texas into a sanctuary state for unhappy GOPers from blue states looking to get away. 

    And on the flip side, doing that is going to run off Texas Democrats into more blue/purple states, turning them bluer/purpler (purple-er?)

    This is fascinating because if it continues this way, over a longer period of time, you might see a self-sorting and self-selecting that will result in the more-or-less peaceful segregation of values/politics versus a bloody or violent one. What you describe is the best of bad options, in that way.

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  17. 6 minutes ago, Nivek said:

    he ran another nice guy campaign when as Texas became more restrictive than the Taliban, instituted a bounty system, grid failures, high property taxes, and school shootings.   

    Beto would be a great governor.  He is absolute shit at campaigning.  

    So what now? He's lost 3 times in a row. I thought I read from some politico's that losing 3 times in a row is generally understood in the sector that it means 3 strikes and you are out with a political career. Is that accurate? I wonder what he can do to rebound or be of value-- maybe a House Seat? Would his pride let him do that?

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