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MeerkatBong

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Posts posted by MeerkatBong

  1. I'll try to give a serious answer. Here is what I think is happening:

     

    • People en masse are "stupid" insomuch as large cohorts of people are defined by the greatest common factors (large, big rocks which are "general" or "broad brush") versus a least common denominator which would be more specifically defined and create too much noise. 
    • Historically these groups (most commonly two, D's and R's) trade blows via elections and majority favor every 2 years, with the challenger being rewarded for being the critic and the unprovable "I would have done X and then Y would be better (or Z wouldn't have happened, which is bad).
    • R's doing well this election cycle, while sad for a lot of people, a) shouldn't really be surprising and b) should give you hope as that means that historically speaking, D's will be better set up for the '24 election
    • People on this website specifically suffer from a bias of thinking that our general way of thinking is so absolutely right and naturally, ethically and morally superior that people are evil/stupid/crooks if they don't believe the same. I think this creates expectations, and even entitlements, that are increasingly irreparable at a macro level.

     

    I don't think the guy was being literal when he said "today democracy dies" and is just trying to make a point using hyperbole, but I think even that is recency bias.

    People have been saying this during times of national crisis (e.g. Great Depression, McCarthyism, Civil Rights era/transformation, cold war crisis, etc.) the last 100 years, I would guess, and I think it's just our turn to experience it and pretend it's unique. 

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  2. 2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    I'm not gonna watch any returns tonight (well, I actually want to see some local stuff, so I'll pull up those results).  As a society, enough of us have decided that we absolutely, 100% MUST try out some flavor of anti-democratic fascism/authoritarianism, so fuck it, let's get it on.  Christian nationalism.  Xenophobia.  Making voting harder than getting in to Harvard.  Let's just drink the fucking poison and get it over with.

    We're in for a LONG stretch of puking our guts out and being miserable (longer than it needs to be, because many years will be taken up by those voters proclaiming "see, the puking means it's working!").  Lots of people are going to suffer.  And yes, die.  But we are dead-set on giving this a go, so let's give it a go.

    Then, a generation from now, we'll be surrounded by the same people who voted for that horrible path, and none of them will admit that they really wanted it.  It was always someone ELSE who voted for it, they were actually in favor of having a functioning democracy the whole time.  They'll lie.  Like they always have done, and always will done.

    But tonight, I'm gonna catch up on Andor episodes, maybe an episode of What We Do in the Shadows.

    Now this? This is what I can get behind!

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  3. Quote

     

    The outcome of tomorrow’s midterm elections could be influenced by something the government has little control over: the cost of filling up your car with gas.

    Since the 1970s, presidential approval ratings have tended to sag when gas prices rise. And that correlation has been especially pronounced this year as inflation has run rampant and gas prices have spiked.

    The Washington Post found that the share of Americans who said the country was on the right track has moved remarkably in sync with gas prices.

    Since gas prices peaked in June, the correlation between Democratic generic-ballot polling and the price of gas clocked in at minus-.91, nearly a perfect inverse correlation (which is minus-1).

    Why are gas prices so powerful?

    Because it’s the only consumer good whose price we’re reminded of virtually every time we leave the house, experts say. Unlike tuna fish or patio furniture or sneakers, the price of gas is advertised in size-500 font on huge signs that you can’t help but notice.

    Gas prices have been so beaten into us that they can change our behavior over decades. Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania discovered that people who experienced raging gas prices in their formative driving years in the 1970s seemed less likely to drive to work 20 years later than other age cohorts.

    The curious part about the link between voter sentiment and gas prices is that gas prices have very little to do with whoever’s occupying the White House. Gas prices are largely influenced by the price of crude oil, which is a globally traded commodity. That commodity has been dealt a shock this year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, technical snags with refineries in the US, and OPEC+’s production cuts.

    Still, President Biden’s team is fully aware of the importance of gas prices, which explains his incessant attacks on oil companies’ windfall profits, his releasing of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and his visit to Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer.

    Price check: The current national average for a gallon of unleaded gas is $3.80, per AAA. That’s roughly the same as a month ago, down significantly from the record of more than $5, but about 38 cents more than a year ago.

     

     

  4. 3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Her machine is absolutely turning out the voters. Yet again. 

    Doesn’t the word machine usually and historically associate negative connotations when it comes to politics and voting? Or am I thinking of another word that you generally don’t want to be associated with politics?

  5. 58 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Today may be a big day - Texas’ urban counties are having high turnout, GA is having high turnout and long lines At University of Wisconsin

    Can we break 40 million by Monday night? (Including late arriving mail in PA, NV, CA, AZ, CO especially) 

    Which is interesting because both Austin and Dallas have bad weather issues.

  6. 1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

    What part of Reich's post was a half truth or misleading?  He merely said that complaining about inflation being at a 40 year high without noting that corporate profits are at 70 year high is misleading.

    Reich is definitely on the progressive end of the political spectrum, but his point is fair.  There are many factors contributing for our current inflationary situation.  Let's not ignore that one of those is that corporate profits are outpacing inflation.

    The implication being that corporations are price gouging and are big stinky meanies who are twirling their evil mustaches while counting their gold coins is what is stupid.
     

    Also, since I’m being critical one way, I’ll be fair about something the other way— using greedflation as a means to 100% deflect blame of inflation as a political tool is really good politicking by the D’s. It’s the one thing they are doing that shows they have the same stomach to get a little dirty politically with messaging, riling up the base, etc.

    Also I now see @Felix The Butt hurt Cat has entered the chat. 😂 

  7. 7 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

    I mean, the article you linked didn't suggest that "greedflation" is garbage.  Your post was misleading as to the contents of the interview:

    While his overall conclusion was that our current rate of inflation isn't solely the result of corporate greed, I don't think it's fair to say he views that perspective (as a contributing factor in some fashion) is "garbage."

    And, I don't know that most who are pointing to the huge increase in corporate profits are claiming that those profits are the sole reason for inflation.  It's kind of like when people say "Black Lives Matter."  It's not because white lives don't, it's because BLM too.  

    In other words, don't say that inflation is strictly Joe Biden's fault or the result of increased wages coming out of the pandemic (especially when it's a worldwide phenomenon cause not in small part by the preceding Congress and executive administration's policies, but also just the entire global economy); you can't ignore that profits are outpacing the rate of inflation.

     

    I’m not saying that. I’m saying that posting something so obviously political knowing it’s half truths and misleading, just to rile people to your way of thinking like the original tweeter was doing, is lame but understandable in politics. To put that on a nice thread which has nothing to do with that, is garbage. It’s why we can’t have nice things around here.

    9 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

    i was trying to be polite, not obtuse.  you're the one who dismissed it as garbage and gave one economist who said so then claimed 'most' do the same.

    it seems to me that there is actually disagreement out there:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/03/business/economy/price-gouging-inflation.html

     

    I apologize for being a jerk then. I misread your posts tone.

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  8. 17 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

    I don't think all economists agree with that one though.  Dismissing it as garbage seems reductive.

     

    Sure not all; you’ll never have 100% consensus on anything in any profession, even among respected and non-loony peers. I shouldn’t have to explicitly call that out, but here we are as a society.

    That said, most economists agree— this one doesn’t I guess, and one wouldn’t be blamed to wonder if it has to do with his political bent or ambitions on why he’d lean away from popular professional consensus (he previously worked in the Obama administration).  

    The post was garbage because it’s half truths meant to rile people up by manipulating their emotion and spoon feeding them something that isn’t thought to have a real correlation outside of politics. It was lazy and had nothing to do with the interesting and thoughtful discussion of this page, the deterioration of the middle class, and is brazenly political red meat for a certain political party.

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  9. 12 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

    I like your username.  Makes me laugh.  Sorry you felt it was garbage. Care to explain?

    “Greedflation” has been dismissed as political red meat/fake news theory by most respected economists for some time now. 
     

    https://news.northeastern.edu/2022/08/02/what-is-greedflation-and-is-it-driving-higher-prices/

    edit to add; your post above mine also says this:

    The surge in profits during the pandemic era has fueled a debate about whether price-gouging companies carry a share of the blame for high inflation -- an argument pushed by President Joe Biden’s Democrats. Most economists have been skeptical about the idea.  
     

    Also commondreams.org as a site to empower a liberal conspiracy theory? That’s like someone posting something from fox news to bolster a far right conspiracy theory.

  10. 5 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

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    True enough. But D is a big tent— you can line up a rogues gallery and have them come from all walks of life and presented aesthetics and they could all be united against R for uniquely different reasons, is my point. R’s are more monolithic (to your point) outside of Kanye and maybe Kyrie Irving one day.

  11. 19 minutes ago, troph said:

    you know what...  many of these conservative hacks have no idea we trans folk are ALL AROUND.  you talk about suburban moms? I'M A SUBURBAN MOM.  You have this idea that trans people look like this:

    bud lite.jpg

    The reality is your wives might be our friends and you don't even know it. You've jumped to conclusions about what trans is and isn't and your conclusions drive you to consider us enemies and threats. the reality is, the exact opposite it true, close mindedness has converted you into the threat. YOU ARE THE THREAT.  Take that to your Jesus revivals and fuck off.

    I’m generally with you but come on, just stop with this. It shows very little self and social awareness, at worst— at best a “hope springs eternal” optimism and kool-aid drinking that I suppose is a survival mechanism, so I can’t blame you. Peace to you, but let’s not lose credibility with the over selling of something.

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  12. 5 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

    Everything we think is just based on emotional reactions and what we “feel”.

    From sea to shining sea.
     

    That tells half the story.

    Using the data from that tweet.NY might have 20% less crime per 100k, but it has 100%+ more population (2x).
    Therefore: 18,320 violent crime victims in OK versus 32,760 in NY. 

    And if most OK live outside the heat mapped part of OKC and Tulsa that has the worst crime, that makes sense.

    Politically for me, both OK and NY have crime problems, so I’m in agreement with you on Red state OK not having room to talk.

  13. 18 minutes ago, Hammerin Hank said:

    My wife just voted at the McNeil HS location, and said there was a decent crowd. She said most of the people looked like dems so maybe a good sign 

    Hmmm. What does a Dem look like? How can you tell someone’s political affiliation in 2022 by appearances? Green hair and a bone in their nose? Lots of people voting D these days might not look like what you’d think…

  14. 1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

     

    I personally don’t see a red wave as a possibility, I think the worst outcome is a red ripple.

    I was reading today that even a "red ripple" (losing less seats than in the past) could still be disastrous because the margins of majority are much slimmer. edit to add link below. I bolded the part I was referencing.

     

    Democrats across the country scrambled Thursday to bolster candidates in places President Biden carried safely in 2020, the latest sign of panic that they could face major losses in next week’s midterm elections.

    Vice President Harris and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton held a joint rally in an effort to rescue New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), who faces a close race in a state Republicans haven’t won in two decades. Biden traveled to New Mexico and Southern California to support vulnerable Democratic incumbents — bypassing Arizona and Nevada, where officials fear he could be a drag on senators in tight races. Biden and Harris plan to spend part of the weekend in Illinois, boosting House candidates in suburban districts that have been trending back toward Republicans since 2020.

    As Republicans have focused on inflation and crime to go on offense in Democratic territory over the past month — competing in traditionally blue districts in California, Oregon, New York, Illinois and elsewhere — there’s a growing sense among Democrats that there’s little they can do at this point to combat the combined forces of history and economics.

    “There’s a general malaise that’s hanging over the country,” said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist. “What you’re seeing is an angry electorate that keeps kicking the people in charge out. They did it in 2016. They did it in 2018. They did it in 2020. And, if things hold to what it’s looking like, they’re probably going to do it again in 2022.”

    While many Democrats have privately believed for months that Republicans were likely to take the House, they have expressed increasing fears in recent days that voters could hand the GOP a significant majority — an outcome that would amount to a major rebuke of the party in power. In some cases, the party appears to be conceding seats it previously competed for, a retrenchment that strategists worry could signal a “red wave” of widespread Republican victories on traditionally Democratic turf.

    While the battle for control of the Senate remains closely contested — with both parties pouring millions of dollars into a handful of states that will determine whether Democrats maintain, or even add to, their slim majority — in the House the debate has shifted to predicting how large the new Republican majority will be. Democrats have 220 seats in the House now, and need 218 to maintain control.

    One House Democratic strategist said that if Democrats hold 200 to 205 seats, they will consider it a good night. If the party ends up with 190 seats or less — a loss of 30 seats that would require several districts Biden carried by double-digits to flip — that would reflect a big red wave, said the strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

    Biden allies are preparing to spin even a defeat as a win for the president, since President Barack Obama lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trump lost 40 in 2018, and Biden is not expected lose as many. But because Biden began his presidency with a much smaller majority than his predecessors, even modest losses could leave Democrats with fewer seats than the 193 they had in 2011.

    The party has continued to express confidence about holding the Senate, where elections are historically less dependent on the national political environment than House races. Still, a number of competitive contests have tightened in recent days as Republican candidates have continuously linked their opponents to Biden, who faces stubbornly low approval ratings.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/03/democrats-midterm-election-fears/

  15. 6 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

    are you on a roku device by chance?  i had issues loading the game last night, spent way too long on chat with the NBA app troubleshooting team.  after an hour and a half they finally admitted an update they recently rolled out to Roku had been causing a lot of people issues.  what worked for me was going to Roku's home page and clearing the cache.  to do that, you go to Roku's home page and rapidly click the home button 5x, up arrow once, rewind 2x, and fast forward 2x.  you'll know the sequence registered b/c the Roku will reboot itself.  after that i was able to load the stream.

    we did go after dragic but as a bench guy.  he wanted more than 12 mins a game.

    we have a whole bunch of guys who on any night can get us points.  maxi, dodo, reggie, dwight, timmy.  i'm worried about our interior defensive.  again.  javale hasn't been panning out.

    yes roku device. thanks!

  16. We are in the storming phase; things will settle and everyone will move on and either figure out how to co-exist with the new normal of Twitter or they will leave and a nice new venture will have spawned off from it. Either way, win/win and not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. The only people who seem to have emotional investment are those who just really liked Twitter as it was and didn't want it disrupted.

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